Hero folds?
 

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (4.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

The guy who CR me on the river is known to me as a wild player, however, I also saw that he can be tricky at some stages, especially turn and river. On the other hand, the player that bet the river is known for his straightforward play, he bets when he hits, and check-folds when he misses.
I am interested in River play the most. On the other hand, if I made some mistakes please say so.

Re: Hero folds?
 

Hero bets the flop.

As played, hero raises the turn and folds to a 3-bet.

On the river hero calls, given your reads.

Re: Hero folds?
 

bet the flop.

Re: Hero folds?
 

Bet the flop.

I like advice to raise the turn and fold to a 3-bet. The only likely hands that 3-bet here are a King or a better Ace.

As played call the river. You'll be best way more than the 8% you need to make this +EV.

Re: Hero folds?
 

raisefolding the turn is horrible

Re: Hero folds?
 

[ QUOTE ]
raisefolding the turn is horrible

[/ QUOTE ]Put villain on a hand

Re: Hero folds?
 

i didn't say we're not beat the majority of the time, i said raisefolding the turn is horrible

Re: Hero folds?
 

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i didn't say we're not beat the majority of the time, i said raisefolding the turn is horrible

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why?

Re: Hero folds?
 

Care to explain why?

Re: Hero folds?
 

I would probably not raise/fold the turn in this situation, but i would also never be in this situation because I would either b/f the flop or b/f the turn. Really not betting the flop puts us in a bad bad bad situation.

Re: Hero folds?
 

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i didn't say we're not beat the majority of the time, i said raisefolding the turn is horrible

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why?

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Because we're WA/WB against basically the entire field and hero's incorrect flop check has kept the pot small.

Re: Hero folds?
 

How come we are beating into 3 people as a pure bluff?

Re: Hero folds?
 

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How come we are beating into 3 people as a pure bluff?

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its not a bluff when you have the best hand. which you will frequently enough to make this bet profitable.

and you want people with random crap like 89s out of the hand.

you probably also get a low PP to fold.

Re: Hero folds?
 

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i didn't say we're not beat the majority of the time, i said raisefolding the turn is horrible

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why?

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Because we're WA/WB against basically the entire field and hero's incorrect flop check has kept the pot small.

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no. we aren't "WA/WB" the entire field. gutshots, draws to splits, and two outers can have a cumulative effect of making you less of a favorite than you may realize.

factor in that the pot isn't *small*. there's over 5BB in it when villain bets the turn. getting the pot HU against someone drawing to a gutshot, a split or 2 outs isn't a bad outcome. if, by our raising, they want to fold their equity in this situation, it's a pretty damn good thing for us.

Re: Hero folds?
 

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no. we aren't "WA/WB" the entire field. gutshots, draws to splits, and two outers can have a cumulative effect of making you less of a favorite than you may realize.

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If 3 2-outers call, there is also a cumulative effect of much more money going into the pot than a worse hand could ever contribute heads-up.

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factor in that the pot isn't *small*. there's over 5BB in it when villain bets the turn.

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That's still much smaller than the chances of any worse hand overtaking ours.

Re: Hero folds?
 

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How come we are beating into 3 people as a pure bluff?

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On a KK7 rainbow board you often have the best hand because everyone else missed the flop

It it were like Q96 with a flush draw showing a check becomes a lot better

Re: Hero folds?
 

also i think not betting the flop is fine some of the time

Re: Hero folds?
 

bet/fold the flop.

call the turn.

Re: Hero folds?
 

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If 3 2-outers call, there is also a cumulative effect of much more money going into the pot than a worse hand could ever contribute heads-up.

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problem is it's plenty often they have more than a two outer.

if you're up against 3 gutshots that's around 26% in cumulative equity. if your raise mangages to fold another ace you gain the equity of 2 king outs, 4 queen outs and 2 ace outs(that's 17% equity). if your raise folds out a pp, a gutshot and another ace you've gained their 30% in equity. this means you win more often, which means your aggressive play puts more money in your pocket because you don't get drawn out on as often. if an ace calls down, you still gain 2 more bb's a huge % of the time. if a lone pp or gutter or even all of them call you gain tremendously.

on the flip side, planning on folding to a 3bet is giving up 5% of your equity the times your against trips or a FH. still, when the pot gets a certain size, it is more to your benefit to win it immediately. if it was 4bb or less i wouldn't mind calling as much. make it 4.5bb+ and it's more worth fighting over(if your holding warrants it). i will say, 6bb pot is an autoraise. the 5.25bb pot is closer. when it gets that close, take the route that will win it the most often.

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That's still much smaller than the chances of any worse hand overtaking ours.

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not much smaller. if we call, we offer 6.25bb immediately to the next caller. of course with each caller the odds offered get better and better. this has the net effect of making them play closer to correctly, because everybody put in one bet into a pot of 8.25bb on the turn. if they have a cumulative of 5-6 outs we probably come out better winning it immediately on the turn at 5.25bb.

Re: Hero folds?
 

chking behind that specific flop vs these specific opponents isnt bad at all. Hero is no doubt behind and will not fold a better hand. 100% c-bet is for spastics.

I think you played it fine, but I'm also sure you played it that way for completely different reasons as to why I may play it that way [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

SERIOUSLYx3

JT

Re: Hero folds?
 

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if you're up against 3 gutshots that's around 26% in cumulative equity.

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And if 3 gutshots overcall the potsize has nearly doubled. Risking losing 4BB 26% of the time vs. winning 3BB 74% of the time sounds like a good deal to me.

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if your raise mangages to fold another ace you gain the equity of 2 king outs, 4 queen outs and 2 ace outs(that's 17% equity).

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Except you don't lose the entire pot against those hands so it's functionally more like half that.

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if your raise folds out a pp, a gutshot and another ace you've gained their 30% in equity

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At the expense of 3BB! That's a lot compared to what you're protecting. And that's assuming more than one of the opponents behind you is even drawing live, often they're not.

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on the flip side, planning on folding to a 3bet is giving up 5% of your equity the times your against trips or a FH.

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There's also a non-negligible chance you get 3bet by an A that sucks at poker.

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when the pot gets a certain size, it is more to your benefit to win it immediately

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Agree but if you think 4-6BB is worth protecting from 2 and 4 outers you need to rethink your math.

Re: Hero folds?
 

ok, so I slept and sobered up and it occured to me that in my last post I trusted some numbers thrown around in this thread, and shouldn't have because they're completely unrealistic...the only straight draw on this board is the broadway gutshot, and it's a 2 card draw in every case. This means that in the oh-so-scary nightmare scenario where everyone is drawing to a gutshot, they can have at most 8 outs total, in the event that one has QJ, one has QT, and one has JT (remember, a J is in our hand so QT is a 2 outer). The rest of the time they have even less because 2 of them have the same hand.

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Board: Ah Kc Kd 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 89.041% 89.14% 00.00% 296876 0.00 { AdJh }
Hand 1: 03.646% 02.13% 01.52% 7096 5061.50 { QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 03.649% 02.15% 01.50% 7162 5005.00 { QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 03.663% 02.17% 01.50% 7220 4994.50 { QTo+, JTo }

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Board: Ah Kc Kd 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 87.498% 87.50% 00.00% 546508 0.00 { AdJh }
Hand 1: 05.001% 05.00% 00.00% 31237 0.00 { QJo }
Hand 2: 02.529% 02.53% 00.00% 15797 0.00 { QTo }
Hand 3: 04.972% 04.97% 00.00% 31053 0.00 { JTo }

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What if they aren't sharing draws? What if someone has a pocket pair for the 2-outer and the other has Ax with a relevant kicker?

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Board: Ah Kc Kd 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.162% 70.31% 07.86% 658214 73559.00 { AdJh }
Hand 1: 08.979% 08.98% 00.00% 84063 0.00 { QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 05.002% 05.00% 00.00% 46830 0.00 { 88 }
Hand 3: 07.857% 00.00% 07.86% 0 73559.00 { A9o }

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Just for fun, in this case if we assume that everyone folds to your raise (including turn bettor) if you raise, but overcalls if you call, then the EV of calling vs raising is (.78)(2) - (.22)(6.25), or +.185BB. And again keep in mind that I basically handpicked the worst possible combination of hands that could be out against you other than boats and trips. Trying to protect on this turn is pretty lol.

Re: Hero folds?
 

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if you're up against 3 gutshots that's around 26% in cumulative equity.

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And if 3 gutshots overcall the potsize has nearly doubled. Risking losing 4BB 26% of the time vs. winning 3BB 74% of the time sounds like a good deal to me.

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the gutshot example.
pot is 5.25bb after guy bets, if we raise, the other gutters fold and he calls(neglecting our investment) the pot is 6.25bb. he doesn't put in another bet UI. we win that 6.25bb around 90% which equals about 5.63bb.

if the hypothetical 3 gutshots call the turn the pot will be(not including our investment) 7.25bb. we have .74 equity*7.25bb= 5.37bb.

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if your raise folds out a pp, a gutshot and another ace you've gained their 30% in equity

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At the expense of 3BB! That's a lot compared to what you're protecting. And that's assuming more than one of the opponents behind you is even drawing live, often they're not.

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on the turn it's an immediate cost of 2bb. odds are the original bettor calls with his 2-8 outer so we still gain at least the other bb from him and i'm sure he'll pay off a river bet with a worse ace most of the time.

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Agree but if you think 4-6BB is worth protecting from 2 and 4 outers you need to rethink your math.

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if you don't think a 6bb pot is worth protecting against as many as 6-14 cumulative outs i'm not the only one who needs to "rethink my math".

and Xhad, this all started when BBB said raisefolding the turn was "horrible". my REAL point was that it wasn't horrible and in some instances preferable. in turn, i'm not saying calling is horrible. if it was HU or maybe even 3handed it would certainly change things.

Re: Hero folds?
 

Nice. I make one post drunk, then come back and do a sober one with some hard math and which one do you respond to?

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odds are the original bettor calls with his 2-8 outer so we still gain at least the other bb from him and i'm sure he'll pay off a river bet with a worse ace most of the time.

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And you can't get that river bet if you call?

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if you don't think a 6bb pot is worth protecting against as many as 6-14 cumulative outs i'm not the only one who needs to "rethink my math".

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It might be when one person was the one holding all of those outs. It's not when those outs are coming from 3 people put together. Also, your opponents never have 14 outs worth of equity, ever. They couldn't have that many if you handpicked their ranges which I thought I already demonstrated above.

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and Xhad, this all started when BBB said raisefolding the turn was "horrible". my REAL point was that it wasn't horrible and in some instances preferable.

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I might respect your argument if it were from a value angle; from the looks of it IF we're ahead we have around 80% equity at the worst. "Let's protect from 2-outers" is not an argument for raising though.

Re: Hero folds?
 

sorry Xhad,

didn't see your second post. i'm at work and i get pulled away from a response, lose my train of thought, go back to it and try to piece it together and usually have a tough time relating my original point because i've lost track of what i was trying to say. i also miss any responses that might have been made when i had the "respond to" window open. i'm aware of our equity. that's not my point.

i'll try to expound later.

Re: Hero folds?
 

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raisefolding the turn is horrible

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Xhad's analysis is pretty baller.

Re: Hero folds?
 

curious that no one has really responded to OP's original question.

OP against this player you can call the river. against most players this is a river fold after the CR.

Re: Hero folds?
 

I bet flop, raise turn, fold river