25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

<font color="blue">Villain was playing very tight, 13/11 over 100 hands. I'm running 20/18, but on the button I'm raising over 30% of the time. So I put him on 99+, AQ+ after the 3bet preflop. Assuming he c-bets all the time (probably pretty reasonable if he has any stats on me [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]), I'm ahead of his range on the flop. But I'm really having second thoughts about my shove. I'm in awesome shape (46.884% equity) if he's calling w/ JJ and TT (along with 99, QQ, KK, AA, and A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). But if he's folding those two hands, it's ugly (15.576% equity). So I'm not sure about the shove, but did I have any other options?</font>

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.10/$0.25 Blinds
5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Moungie: $58.45
Bastian1: $53.15
imsoooobluffing: $37.50
BBALLAHOLIC: $22.10
Hero: $43.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
imsoooobluffing calls $0.25, BBALLAHOLIC folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, Moungie calls $1.15, <font color="red">Bastian1 raises to $5.75</font>, imsoooobluffing folds, Hero calls $4.50, Moungie folds

Flop: ($13) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Bastian1 bets $10.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $37.75</font>, Bastian1 calls $27.75

Turn: ($88.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

River: ($88.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $88.50 ($3 Rake)

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

You can't stack off to this nit, especially as deep as you are. Call the flop and give up if he keeps firing.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

I don't like the "call and see the turn" strategy very much. I think you need to either commit or fold on the flop.

If he's the type of player to make that flop bet with mostly made hands, you have to fold. If draws and c-bets make up a decent part of his betting range, shove away.

I hate giving concrete advice, because table feel is so important, but his stats and pre-flop play make that $10 flop bet look awful big...I think I fold and wait for a better spot. As much as my LAGy soul hates it.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

I call his flop bet and if he fires again on turn I fold

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

Guys like this cbet this flop with like their entire range, which is TT+, AQo+ if not wider, and they're not firing again with a worse hand unless they think hero is a fish. If you're going to fold on this flop you might as well not even play PF.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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I call his flop bet and if he fires again on turn I fold

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Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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Guys like this Probably cbet this flop with like their entire range, which is TT+, AQo+ if not wider,

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QFT with a little change to qualify

I like a call on the flop....if he checks the turn either check behind and hope he bluffs river or just push turn yourself. If he fires turn probably fold although maybe with a read that he'll double barrel you can find a call.



And don't show the turn or river. We know he doesn't have AcKc now.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

Flat calling on the flop puts over 1/3 of hero's stack into the pot. If you're gonna put 1/3 of your stack in, then fold to a turn bet, why are you even playing? This looks like a clear shove or fold on the flop to me. If you're not planning to make a shove/fold decision after villain bets on the flop, then shove/fold pre-flop.

I just hate calling on the flop. It's the wussy way out; "I have a big overpair, so I can't fold, but he could have AA or KK, so I won't raise." AA, KK, JJ, and 1010 are all equally as likely. Pick a read and go with it. Call leaves you in no mans land.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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I just hate calling on the flop. It's the wussy way out; "I have a big overpair, so I can't fold, but he could have AA or KK, so I won't raise." AA, KK, JJ, and 1010 are all equally as likely. Pick a read and go with it. Call leaves you in no mans land.

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Why is it a wussy way out and whats wrong with it

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

If you are worried about his hand range, I think a 3-bet preflop is the way to extract the most information. I can't see him 4-betting you without AA or KK (maybe AKs but doubtful)

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

It's wussy because, if our villain has a clue, they're gonna shove any turn card now. Look at the stacks and how big the pot is; I don't see how a flop call doesn't commit our hero. Might as well be the one doing the shoving or just get out of the way. I'm not saying I'm right, but that's what I'm thinking in that spot.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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Flat calling on the flop puts over 1/3 of hero's stack into the pot. If you're gonna put 1/3 of your stack in, then fold to a turn bet, why are you even playing? This looks like a clear shove or fold on the flop to me. If you're not planning to make a shove/fold decision after villain bets on the flop, then shove/fold pre-flop.

I just hate calling on the flop. It's the wussy way out; "I have a big overpair, so I can't fold, but he could have AA or KK, so I won't raise." AA, KK, JJ, and 1010 are all equally as likely. Pick a read and go with it. Call leaves you in no mans land.

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In my opinion against this opponent in this situation with the players in these positions TT is not as likely as AA. And he may fold TT if you shove flop whereas he will never fold AA/KK/AcKc. In my opinion it's just the smart play.

True that call may leave you in a tougher spot than shoving but sometimes tough spots happen and making a bad (or less than optimal) play to avoid it isn't a good idea.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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It's wussy because, if our villain has a clue, they're gonna shove any turn card now.

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That's not true at all IMO.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

Maybe I'm giving the villain too much credit here, but you really think he's going to make that type of pre-flop raise, then that flop bet, and then just give up on the turn? I don't see that happening. In my mind, his flop bet is saying, "I'm pot-committed." That means it's our time to decide if we are too.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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And don't show the turn or river. We know he doesn't have AcKc now.

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Also, don't tell us that he called your all-in. That makes it a lot easier for me to say things like, "Our villain is clearly pot-committed." [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Edit: Seriously though, that $10 flop bet would tell me he is pot-committed. Honestly. I swear.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

that flop bet is called a cbet and they are ~175bb deep so it doesn't commit anyone. it's reasonable for the villain to cbet w/TT/JJ here and then check the turn

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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It's wussy because, if our villain has a clue, they're gonna shove any turn card now. Look at the stacks and how big the pot is; I don't see how a flop call doesn't commit our hero.

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When villain bets flop, he has TT+, AQo+. So we're ahead of villain's range on the flop, and we're not folding.

If we shove, villain folds his overs, his TT, and his JJ, and calls with his AA-KK; so we can't shove.

If we call and he bets the turn, we can probably safely fold. A nitty TAG double barrelling whiffed overs in a big 3bet pot for 170BB is virtually unheard of in 25NL. But even if we think he double barrells and we want to stack off, calling the flop and then calling his shove on the turn is obviously better than shoving the flop ourselves, because it's not like he's calling our shove on the flop with AK unimproved.

On the other hand, if he checks the turn, we can either shove then or check behind to get value from the TT-JJ that folds to a flop shove.

In conclusion: shoving and folding are both terrible; calling gets the monies.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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that flop bet is called a cbet and they are ~175bb deep so it doesn't commit anyone. it's reasonable for the villain to cbet w/TT/JJ here and then check the turn

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When your stack-to-pot ratio is less than 3, you need to make a commitment decision. I don't care how many BB deep you are.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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If we shove, villain folds his overs, his TT, and his JJ, and calls with his AA-KK; so we can't shove.

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What makes you so sure he's folding JJ and TT?

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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If we shove, villain folds his overs, his TT, and his JJ, and calls with his AA-KK; so we can't shove.

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What makes you so sure he's folding JJ and TT?

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13/11s don't stack off light in 3bet pots for 170BB at 25NL.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I mostly hate "call to see if they'll fire another bullet" calls, and this is no exception. I usually raise or fold in these spots. Different strokes for different folks.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

i'm glad you read pnl, but you should think about what it says as opposed to just saying oh, my stack to pot ratio is &lt;3, so i have to shove or fold. against this villain a flop shove maximizes your losses and minimizes your value

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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i'm glad you read pnl, but you should think about what it says as opposed to just saying oh, my stack to pot ratio is &lt;3, so i have to shove or fold. against this villain a flop shove maximizes your losses and minimizes your value

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If you're certain they're folding JJ and TT, yes, you are right. I don't think you should automatically assume that simply because you have 100 hands on him. That's not a large sample by any means.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

obv it's not certain whether villain ALWAYS folds TT/JJ to a shove, but we know he calls ~100% of the time w/anything better.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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i'm glad you read pnl, but you should think about what it says as opposed to just saying oh, my stack to pot ratio is &lt;3, so i have to shove or fold. against this villain a flop shove maximizes your losses and minimizes your value

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I missed where PNL was brought into this, but you have a good point.

Being pot committed simply means that you are not folding your hand in this pot if your hand has a positive expectation against the range of hands that villain will get it all-in with by showdown. What you want to do is what maximizes expectation against his entire range of handsand in this situation shoving prevents that.

Lets assume that your opponent is never going to fold AA, two pair, or a set. KK has a very small chance of getting folded. JJ has a slightly higher chance of getting folded that KK, but not as high of a chance of getting folded as TT. If you look at the pattern, you begin to see that if your opponent is going to call a flop shove with anything, it is more likely to be with hands that beat you as opposed to hands you beat. Therefore, while a flop shove isn't necessarily -EV, it will be less profitable than a line that increases the likelihood that a worse hand will get it all-in. In this hand, Hero is probably just as good calling it down and shoving any chips left at the river into the pot than shoving the flop.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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obv it's not certain whether villain ALWAYS folds TT/JJ to a shove, but we know he calls ~100% of the time w/anything better.

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Anything better being mostly AA or KK, which has equally as many variations as JJ or TT (ignoring the fact that an A came on the river; we obviously can't know that's coming on the flop.) A set is possible, but unlikely as only 99 makes sense, and that's sorta iffy. Pre-flop line doesn't look like 99. There's a chance he has a weird straight or flush draw and is getting out of line, or even a huge combo draw, but neither of those are likely either. Since everyone here is so certain he's simply c-betting, couldn't villain also have AK? He might, but most of the time here it's either AA, KK, JJ, or TT. Which is why I say shove or fold.

I can understand the call/see turn strategy, as you could then, ideally, get away from the times he has AA/KK and pick off the times he has JJ/TT. I just think we're overestimating how many times we'll be right, as a turn bet doesn't always mean he's got AA/KK or better, and a turn check doesn't always mean JJ/TT or worse. Like I said earlier, maybe I'm giving our villain too much credit, but that is they way I think at the poker table. I try not to underestimate my opponents, especially when it's online and I have only a SSS on them.

The way the hand unfolded, I would say the chances are all the money is going in away, and I like being the aggressor. So I shove or fold. If he's got the AA/KK, good for him. If he's got JJ/TT and can get away from it, good for him too. That's just the way I play. Feel free to criticize. And I'm done with this thread. I gotta go play some poker.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

mentioned pnl b/c its a hot topic in unl right now and it explicitly references this concept

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

Yeah, pushing this flop is really bad.

We have no reason to think he's 3betting light and this deep our hand is pretty marginal.

Standard spot to call and see a turn. for 100BBs, I'd be shoving without a 2nd thought though....here, I just feel we give him much to big a chance to fold TT/JJ

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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Yeah, pushing this flop is really bad.

We have no reason to think he's 3betting light and this deep our hand is pretty marginal.

Standard spot to call and see a turn. for 100BBs, I'd be shoving without a 2nd thought though....here, I just feel we give him much to big a chance to fold TT/JJ

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Now you that you mention this, maybe it's cause I play NL50 that I'm more prone to shoving here. NL25 is a different animal I guess. The pot did get pretty big quick though...it almost played like a NL50 hand, in terms of pot and stack sizes. I'm paying much more attention to that then to how many blinds I have, once I'm in the thick of things post-flop.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

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Yeah, pushing this flop is really bad.

We have no reason to think he's 3betting light and this deep our hand is pretty marginal.

Standard spot to call and see a turn. for 100BBs, I'd be shoving without a 2nd thought though....here, I just feel we give him much to big a chance to fold TT/JJ

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<font color="blue">Yeah, I think everyone saying call and see a turn was pretty much spot on. He ended up showing AA. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Thanks for the help.</font>

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

Its so funny that every time I think I need to adjust a nit's 3 betting range based on my stats and position I always get hurt. It doesn't matter how often you raise their blinds, it doesn't matter that their stats are nitty so they might be able to get away with a light reraise, it doesn't matter that you think "i'm raising a bunch in late position, QQ must be pretty good even against a nit if he's been paying attention."

The nits always have AA or KK in these spots, they don't adjust to game dynamics and their hand ranges never really change. Don't give them action ever, unless you have a set.

Re: 25NL - QQ vs Suspected 2+2er
 

I find it pretty odd that such a tight player would 3bet out of the BB with much less than AA KK. I think very rarely you may see AK or JJ but not often enough to think your ahead.