NCAAF Team totals plays
 

Syracuse Under 4.5 Wins (-105):



Last Year: 4-8

Returning starters: 12 (7 on offense, 5 on defense) (fewest returning starters in the Big East)

Avg points per game: 17.4

Avg points allowed per game: 24.6

Coach: Greg Robinson (3rd year at Syracuse, 5-18 in the last two seasons)



Offense:



They lose their starting QB Perry Patterson. Sophomore Andrew Robinson will take the reins, and he has only 8 career collegiate passes. They do return their top two RBs, Delone Carter and Curtis Brinkley. They combined for 1284 yards and 6 TDs last year. They also return their top 4 receivers, but they are still weak in this area. Their leading receiver last year was Mike Williams, but he only had 461 yards. They also return 3 of their 5 OLineman. Overall though, they should struggle with a new QB.



Defense:



This is where they will really struggle. This unit kept them in some games last season, but that may not be the case this year. They lose 3 of their 6 leading tacklers, including leading tackler Kelvin Smith (115 tackles). They do return their leading sack man in Jameel McClain (9.5 sacks). However, they lose all three starting linebackers and both starting cornerbacks, which leaves the defense to make a huge amount of adjustments in the front seven and in the secondary.



Special Teams:



They do have one of the best kickers in the nation in Patrick Shayle, as he hit 16-18 FGs last season. Freshman Rob Long will get the job at punter after averaging 40 yards per punt in high school. Don't expect too much out of him in terms of consistency.



Schedule:


Date Opponent Time/Result
Aug 31 Washington 12:00pm
Sep 22 @Louisville TBA
Sep 29 @Miami (Ohio) TBA
Oct 6 West Virginia TBA
Oct 13 Rutgers TBA
Oct 20 Buffalo TBA
Nov 3 @Pittsburgh TBA
Nov 10 South Florida TBA
Nov 17 @Connecticut TBA
Nov 24 Cincinnati TBA


Games they will win (90-100%): Buffalo
Games they should win (60-85%): @Miami OH
Toss-ups (Spread should be 4 or lower): Illinois (lean toward a loss), Washington (lean toward a win), Cincinnati (lean toward a loss)
Games they should lose (10-30%): @Pittsburgh, @UConn
Games they will lose (<10%): South Florida, Rutgers, West Va., @Iowa, @Louisville

Let's say they beat Washington, Illinois, @Miami OH, and Buffalo (and this is a big assumption). That's four wins. I think it will be a very tough go for them in conference. They play Rutgers, WVU, and SF at home in games that they do not have much of a chance in either way. Of the teams expected to finish 5th-7th in the conference (Cincy, Pitt, and UConn), Cincy is the only one they get at home. Also, they get Cincy as their last game of the season, which is a bad time to play them. First, Cincy could be fighting for a bowl bid/bowl and division position. Second, Cincy should have adjusted to Coach Brian Kelly's spread offense scheme by this time. It wouldn't shock me to see this team go winless in conference.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

Georgia Tech Over 7 wins (-115):

Last year: 9-5 (9-4 in the regular season)
Returning starters: 15 (7 on offense, 8 on defense)
Avg points per game: 24.9
Avg points allowed per game: 18.4
Head Coach: Chan Gailey (6th season as GT coach, 37-27 in five seasons)

Offense

They lose the best receiver in football in Calvin Johnson, so they will have to adjust at WR. They do return #2 receiver James Johnson, who had 608 yards and 7 TDs last season. Starting QB Reggie Ball is gone, but this is addition by subtraction. Ball may have been the worst 4-year starter in college football history. He had a 44.4 completion % last season with the best receiver in the country. Taking over is Junior Taylor Bennett, who started the bowl game against West Virginia last season. He led them to a narrow 38-35 loss as 10 point underdogs. Last season, he was 35-58 (60.3%) with 523 yards, 5 TDs, and 2 INTs. They also return one of the most underrated RBs in the game in Tashard Choice. He ran for 1473 yards and 12 TDs last year (5.0 average). They return 4 of the 5 O-Linemen who paved the way for Choice last year.


Defense

They lose their top tackler in KaMichael Hall (91 tackles last year), but they return five of their six top tacklers overall, including sack man Philip Wheeler (9 sacks). They return 3 of their 4 D-Linemen that only allowed 3.3 yards per carry last season. This unit may be one of the top five D-Lines in the country. They also return two of their three starting LBs and three of the four starters in the secondary.


Special Teams:

They return punter Durant Brooks, who may be the best punter in the country. He averaged 46 yards per punt last season and landed 35 of his 79 punts inside the opponents 20. Kicker Travis Bell return after hitting 43-43 XPs and 12-18 FGs last year.

SCHEDULE

Date Opponent Time/Result
Sep 1 @Notre Dame 3:30pm
Sep 8 Samford 1:30pm
Sep 15 Boston College 8:00pm
Sep 22 @Virginia TBA
Sep 29 Clemson TBA
Oct 6 @Maryland TBA
Oct 13 @Miami (Fla.) TBA
Oct 20 Army TBA
Nov 1 Virginia Tech 6:30pm
Nov 10 @Duke TBA
Nov 17 North Carolina TBA
Nov 24 Georgia TBA






Games they will win (90-100%): Samford, Army
Games they should win (70-90%): @Duke, North Carolina
Games they should lose (10-30%): @Miami, FL

Besides this, I see a good amount of toss-ups here. The rest of the majority of the games could go either way and I don't see them being a huge underdog in any of their games. They should be slight favorites against BC and Clemson. This team would beat Virginia and Maryland on neutral fields, but the games will be more challenging on the road. This team is strong on both lines and at RB, which I consider to be the three most important positions in college football. So, overall I like this team's chances at 8 wins or more.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

South Carolina Over 7 wins (-120):

Last season: 8-5 (7-5 in the regular season)
Returning starters: 17 (7 on offense, 10 on defense)
Average points per game: 26.6
Average points allowed per game: 18.7
Head Coach: Steve Spurrier (3rd year as South Carolina Coach, 157-50-2 in his college career)

Offense:

This unit is a bit of a question mark. They averaged 26.9 ppg last season, but this was inflated by easy wins over Florida Atlantic and Middle Tennessee St. The offense was inconsistent at most points last season. They lose QB Syvelle Newton (58.6 comp.%, 1316 yards, 12 TDs, 7 INTs) who split time at the postion last year. This means that this season, Blake Mitchell will be the sole starting QB. Last season he had a 66.8 comp.%, 1789 yards, 10 TD, and 6 INT. They lose their top WR in Sidney Rice (1090 yards), but they return their #2 through #4 WRs. Kenny McKinley (880 yards, 5 TDs), Cory Boyd (406 yards, 2 TDs), and Freddie Brown (147 yards) all return. They also return their top two RBs in Cory Boyd (846 yards, 8 TDs, 5.0 yards per rush) and Mike Davis (490 yards, 6 TDs, 4.9 yards per rush). They lose 3 of their 5 O-Linemen, but this team regularly rotates 10 men on the O-line, and they return all of the depth to that position.

Defense:

This was a strength last season, and they could be one of the best in the nation this year. Every single starter returns except for FS Fred Bennett (37 tackles, 2 INT). They return an unheard of 15 of their top 16 tacklers coming into the season. Leading the way is MLB Jasper Brinkley, who had 107 tackles and 5 sacks last year. This team can only improve on their quality defensive numbers of last season.

Special Teams:

Ryan Succop will handle both the kicking and punting duties. He is an average punter, but he is a very good kicker (probably top 10 in the country). Last season, he was 37-39 on XPs, and 16-20 on FGs (an impressive 8-11 from 40+).

SCHEDULE

Date Opponent Time/Result
Sep 1 La.-Lafayette TBA
Sep 8 @Georgia 5:45pm
Sep 15 South Carolina State TBA
Sep 22 @LSU 8:00pm
Sep 29 Mississippi St. TBA
Oct 4 Kentucky 6:30pm
Oct 13 @North Carolina TBA
Oct 20 Vanderbilt TBA
Oct 27 @Tennessee TBA
Nov 3 @Arkansas 1:00pm
Nov 10 Florida TBA
Nov 24 Clemson TBA


Games they will win (90-100%): La-Lafayette, South Carolina St.
Games they should win (60-85%): @North Carolina, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Toss-ups: Florida, Clemson (lean towards a win)
Games they should lose (10-30%): @Tennessee, @Arkansas, @Georgia
Games they will lose (<10%): @LSU

This schedule is very difficult, but this team can handle it. Even though I have three road games in games they should lose, I expect them to win one, maybe two of these games. In my opinion, Tennessee and Arkansas both either remained the same or declined slightly over the offseason while SC improved. Therefore, I think they can definitely take one of these two games. Also, Spurrier is probably the best coach in the conference. He is also very successful on the road. In his first 2 seasons at South Carolina, he is 6-3 on the road, and 8-1 ATS on the road. This is amazing considering how difficult road games typically are in college football.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

I'm with agreement on you big time for one

Georgia Tech over 7 wins bet 4.4u to win 4u

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

UCLA over 9 wins bet 2u to win 2.2u

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

Alabama over 8 wins bet 1u to win 1.05u

LSU over 10 wins bet 2.1u to win 2u

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

Quick note on 'Bama that someone on Covers mentioned:

Every SEC team they play except for two (Vandy and one other team that I can't remember) has a bye week before they play them.

Not sure if that affects your bet, just throwing that out there as a scheduling quirk that could potentially hurt them.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

4 SEC teams have a buy before playing Bama
LSU
Arkansas
Auburn
Mississippi St

Bama has a bye before playing LSU, so that is negated

Arkansas-Bama is the 3rd week of the year and it might work in Bama's favor as the HOgs only game before that is home v Troy while Bama gets a taste of semi-real action @ Vandy the week before.

The Auburn and Miss St do of course make a difference.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

Kansas St under 7.5 wins bet 1.4u to win 1u

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

Auburn under 8.5 wins bet 1.15u to win 1u

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

hah...just read the first one...ldo

Syracuse under 4.5 wins bet 3.15u to win 3u

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

FUTURE BEAT OF THE YEAR
Notre Dame under 7.5 wins bet 7.8u to win 6u

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

what site is this on?

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

ND total is on Bodog

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

thanks, i'm on it gl this year

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

i like rutgers u10 but so does everyone else it seems

line is -240 at most books who have 10

some have u9.5 at -125

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

How big of an edge do you guys require to make this bets that take so long to settle?

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

well...since I have money laying around

for me personally, if the edge is greater than the 2.5% I'd gain on the money from a CD, I bet it.
But, I do derive utility from having long-term bets to keep me in action.
For all these posted, the edge is greater than 5%.


I will say the Notre Dame bet has a huge edge, but the bet was only so big do the max limit. Every other gambling site had that line 30 or more cents higher than -130!

My game-by-game breakdown of the Irish and their season had them at -200 to finish below 7.5 wins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This made me suspicious that my anti-Notre Dame sentiment is clouding my judgment.

However, with nearly every other book agreeing that Bodog is off, I'm likely to believe the other books.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

Can someone with a less biased look give me some insight into the Kansas line?

We play 4 cream puffs in the non-con. I would say the mean wins in non-con has got to be 3.3 at least. Then 5 against the pathetic Big 12 North and 3 more against what are generally the weaker teams in the south.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

I've been on the board on Kansas--leaning towards betting it

I think they hit 6 right on about 65% of the time

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

I just reviewed Kansas in depth

no way do I bet the over

little chance of betting the under

BIGXII north slate will be tougher with Nebraska and Mizzou. More automatic losses for KU than wins even with a heavy home schedule and non-name schools (it's not like they are huge favorites over C Michigan and Toledo ~5 pts)

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

Boot - I got mine on The Greek.

rsigley - I agree that Rutgers isn't that good. Tread carefully though because their schedule is incredibly easy. I believe their road games are Army, UConn, Syracuse, and Louisville. Four road games with Louisville being the only really tough game. Ya, they most likely lose to WVU too, but they get mostly home games.

lotus - MyTurn is about right here. I set aside a certain amount just for this purpose this season as I figured there would be at least a couple with value. I also wanted ND, but it went to -150 from -115 on The Greek.

KU - I feel that 6 is the right line. My research of this team turns up a very average, vanilla type team.

Sep 1 C. Michigan 7:00pm
Sep 8 Southeastern Louisiana 7:00pm
Sep 15 Toledo 7:00pm
Sep 22 Fla. International 7:00pm
Oct 6 @Kansas St. TBA
Oct 13 Baylor TBA
Oct 20 @Colorado TBA
Oct 27 @Texas A&M 1:00pm
Nov 3 Nebraska TBA
Nov 10 @Oklahoma St. TBA
Nov 17 Iowa St. TBA
Nov 24 Missouri TBA

In theory, they should beat CMU, SE LA, Toledo, Fla. Int, Baylor, and Iowa St.

Their remaining games are: @Kansas St., @Colorado, @Oklahoma St, @Texas A&M, Missouri, Nebraska

They will be prohibitive underdogs @OK St. and @A&M, and I can't see them winning there.

Missouri and Nebraska are at home, but they are projected to be atop the conference (though I could envision Kansas stealing one from Missouri)

KSU and Colorado are projected to be in the middle/bottom of the conference, but they get them on the road. I think winning one of these two would be the key to them winning 7 games.

How many of the tougher six games do you expect them to win? Also, while they will be favored in the first six, CMU and Toledo are no joke. I am actually leaning toward CMU +8 in their opener. They also lost @Toledo in 2 overtimes last season as 4 point underdogs. Toledo should also be much improved this season, so that will be a tough one.

Something tells me that they go 5-1 in the first set of games and 1-5/2-4 in the 2nd set. So, I pretty much think six is the right number with a slight lean toward the over. I wouls take the over if anything, but I don't think there is enough value in it either way as of right now.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

Guys:

Some good picks on this thread. Someone tell me, does the BoDog $600 max refer to the max risked, or max to win? (i.e., may I lay 1200 to win 600 on a total priced at -200?, or merely 600 to win 300?)

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

Bodog $600 max is the base amount...screwy

so, if the bet is -140, you can bet to win $600
if the bet is +140, you can risk $600

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

I'm in agreement with you on the Syracuse bet, but the other two are closer to neutral valued. Heres the estimates that I have:

Georgia Tech Season Wins: 7.386
@Notre Dame (2.5) 0.449
Samford (-39.5) 0.99
Boston College (-2.0) 0.528
@Virginia (0.5) 0.484
Clemson (-3.5) 0.6
@Maryland (3.0) 0.416
@Miami FL (6.0) 0.354
Army (-27.5) 0.985
Virginia Tech (2.5) 0.449
@Duke (-22.5) 0.969
North Carolina (-10.0) 0.746
Georgia (3.0) 0.416

South Carolina Season Wins: 7.184
Louisiana-Lafayette (-31.0) 0.99
@Georgia (8.5) 0.269
South Carolina State (-40.0) 0.99
@LSU (12.0) 0.22
Mississippi St (-13.0) 0.794
Kentucky (-3.5) 0.6
@North Carolina (-4.5) 0.627
Vanderbilt (-16.0) 0.845
@Tennessee (6.0) 0.354
@Arkansas (2.0) 0.472
Florida (3.0) 0.416
Clemson (-4.0) 0.609

Syracuse Season Wins: 2.139
Washington (4.0) 0.391
@Iowa (28.0) 0.015
Illinois (13.0) 0.206
@Louisville (35.5) 0.01
@Miami Ohio (11.5) 0.225
West Virginia (30.5) 0.01
Rutgers (21.5) 0.05
Buffalo (-6.5) 0.661
@Pittsburgh (18.5) 0.096
South Florida (19.5) 0.076
@Connecticut (7.5) 0.302
Cincinnati (18.5) 0.096

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

i mentioned this in the other thread

you should really get a population of possible outcomes and their probabilities

the relevant is not the mean expected value

ie, for G Tech:
look at probabilites of
1) 6 and less wins
2) exactly 7 wins
3) 8 and more wins

That's what matters

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

Thanks for the estimates. In my opinion you undervalue South Carolina and actually undervalue Syracuse. This is not criticism, just kind of a question of how you came up with the lines.

I would disagree that Kentucky and South Carolina would be a PKish type line on a neutral field (I think that it was you are implying with that line, correct me if I am wrong). Based on the lines, it also seems to imply that Vandy would be +12.5 against Kentucky on a neutral field. Are you particularly high on Kentucky this year?

For Syracuse, I think that the lines are a little lofty in general for their home games. I agree in general with their total wins, as I think that the Cuse winning two games is more likely than them winning five. However, I think that the Cincy game would be less than a TD if they played today (and this comes from a huge Cincy fan that thinks they are underrated coming into the year). I feel similarly about the S. Fla and Illinois lines. Are you simply very low on the Cuse this season?

Thanks for the input. Very interested in this type of capping.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
i mentioned this in the other thread

you should really get a population of possible outcomes and their probabilities

the relevant is not the mean expected value

ie, for G Tech:
look at probabilites of
1) 6 and less wins
2) exactly 7 wins
3) 8 and more wins

That's what matters

[/ QUOTE ]


using bevo_stevo's numbers....
G Tech has a 47% chance of 8 or more wins
25% chance of exactly 7
28% chance of 6 or less


That might cause you to re-evaluate if it has value or not

where bevo_stevo's mean analysis didn't suggest much value,
his own numbers actually suggest a breakeven price of -168 on G Tech over 7 wins. This doesn't factor in time value of money and whatnot, which is another reason why the % of hitting exactly 7 matters.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

FYI...bevo_stevo's estimates have the South Carolina bet as value until -132 or so

Post deleted by Ryan Beal
 

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

A little more ammo for the Syracuse bet:

Tom Ferron, the team's starting TE, has quit the team. He led the team in catches last year with 30 and was 2nd in yards with 351.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

After re-jiggering my algorithm, the numbers for Syracuse were brought more inline with the book's estimates. I apologize if anybody mortgaged their house on my bogus estimates.

Syracuse Season Wins: 4.017
Washington (4.0) 0.391
@Iowa (18.0) 0.112
Illinois (3.0) 0.416
@Louisville (25.0) 0.015
@Miami Ohio (2.0) 0.472
West Virginia (19.0) 0.102
Rutgers (11.0) 0.235
Buffalo (-17.0) 0.872
@Pittsburgh (7.0) 0.31
South Florida (9.0) 0.282
@Connecticut (-2.0) 0.528
Cincinnati (9.0) 0.282

South Carolina Season Wins: 7.253
Louisiana-Lafayette (-29.5) 0.985
@Georgia (8.0) 0.293
South Carolina State (-37.5) 0.99
@LSU (13.0) 0.206
Mississippi St (-12.0) 0.78
Kentucky (-3.0) 0.584
@North Carolina (-9.0) 0.718
Vanderbilt (-14.5) 0.83
@Tennessee (6.0) 0.354
@Arkansas (1.0) 0.488
Florida (3.0) 0.416
Clemson (-4.0) 0.609

Georgia Tech Season Wins: 7.089
@Notre Dame (5.0) 0.374
Samford (-36.0) 0.99
Boston College (-2.0) 0.528
@Virginia (1.5) 0.434
Clemson (-2.5) 0.551
@Maryland (3.5) 0.4
@Miami FL (6.0) 0.354
Army (-25.0) 0.985
Virginia Tech (3.5) 0.4
@Duke (-20.0) 0.914
North Carolina (-10.0) 0.746
Georgia (3.0) 0.416

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

What do you guys think of PSU 9.5 -130? As a PSU student I like the under a lot, but I guess it's closer than I think if you guys haven't mentioned it yet.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

Guys, easy money with Arizona State ay 7.5 wins. They could have that many by November.

09/01 San Jose St
09/08 Colorado
09/15 SDSU
09/22 Oregon St
09/29 at Stanford
10/06 at Wash St
10/13 Washington
10/27 California
11/03 at Oregon
11/10 at UCLA
11/22 USC
12/01 Arizona

Probable wins: SJSU, Colorado, SDSU, Stanford, Washington, Arizona, Washington State

Toss-ups: California, Oregon State (both in Tempe)

Probable losses: USC, UCLA, Oregon

The only game on the schedule where they have no chance is the USC game.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

Heh. Cal isn't a "toss up". Check the other thread.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do you guys think of PSU 9.5 -130? As a PSU student I like the under a lot, but I guess it's closer than I think if you guys haven't mentioned it yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your intuition agrees with my model, heres the numbers that I have.

Penn St Season Wins: 8.355
Florida International (-38.0) 0.99
Notre Dame (-8.0) 0.707
Buffalo (-33.0) 0.99
@Michigan (6.5) 0.339
@Illinois (-7.0) 0.69
Iowa (-4.0) 0.609
Wisconsin (-1.0) 0.512
@Indiana (-5.0) 0.626
Ohio St (-2.5) 0.551
Purdue (-7.0) 0.69
@Temple (-37.0) 0.99
@Michigan St (-6.5) 0.661

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
Heh. Cal isn't a "toss up". Check the other thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

The other thread isn't God, if you know what I'm saying. The ASU/Cal game in Tempe is a toss-up. Cal is going to lose 3-5 games, ASU is going to lose 3-4 games. Cal's being pumped again in the national media, thus lines are going to reflect that.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Heh. Cal isn't a "toss up". Check the other thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

The other thread isn't God, if you know what I'm saying. The ASU/Cal game in Tempe is a toss-up. Cal is going to lose 3-5 games, ASU is going to lose 3-4 games. Cal's being pumped again in the national media, thus lines are going to reflect that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gimme Cal +1 even money on season wins. I'll take action as high as you want.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

Why should I? You should be giving me Arizona State +1.5.

Re: NCAAF Team totals plays
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why should I? You should be giving me Arizona State +1.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then why did you say that Cal will lose 3-5 and Arizona St. will lose 3-4. Perhaps Cal +.5 would be better. Or maybe you just don't know what the [censored] you are talking about. Atleast back your ridiculous assertions with wagers to match.