Live Turn Checkraise
 

live 10/20

my image is tighter than usual, and i'm running pretty well and up about 30bbs over the past few hours.

i open with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG1, 2 loosepassives coldcall, a tight player trying to play well 3bets on the button, blinds fold, i seriously consider a cap because i know the loose passives will often call, but i opt to only call. the two fish call as well.

Flop(4 players, 13.5sb): A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

i bet, 2 passives call, button raises, i 3bet, one of the passives now fold, other loosepassive and button call.

Turn(11.5bb): 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

i check, LP checks, button bets, and i checkraise.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

you really think villain is folding AK?

maybe you should simultaneously tell him that AK is no good lol. people trying to play well dont like it when you can read them like a book.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

If "trying to play well" means "playing weak-tight," then sure, I guess this is okay. Otherwise, you're asking him to put you on a very narrow range of hands and act on that read in a very large pot. And you're often going to have to fire the river.

EDIT: just noticed that you're not heads up. Now I like it even less. Sure, if the other guy folds you may get the button to laydown a little more often because of the protected pot, but probably not as often as the loose guy calls down with some middling ace.

-McGee

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

I would have thought open-raisng JTs from EP FR in a SS live (loose) game would be bad. I would usually limp in my live 10-20 game.

I don't think the turn aggression is good. I think the button and/or the other guy will pay you off. If you get this HU and don't improve would a river bluff be profitable on some cards?

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

My only concern is that this board is so disconnected that your c/r looks too much like a play, even if your image is good. If I am the Button, the most you get from me is a call now and a call down on the river. I have the position to see if you are for real or not.

The c/r is a powerful tool and I would have chosen to unleash it AFTER I fill my belly buster straight which would be a fairly stealthly hand on this board.

And, if you miss on the river, you potentially save a BB as well. I vote to hold off on the c/r.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

james - i think this is total spew [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
My only concern is that this board is so disconnected that your c/r looks too much like a play, even if your image is good.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is something I don't know much about, but I think I diagree with you. I don't think this generally looks like a play. This isn't a board that is particularly likely to have missed the button's range, and it's not a drawy board where a semi-bluff seems likely (JT would be the only strong draw here). I don't think it's a board that encourages a call down.

I don't like the turn aggression, but not on the grounds that it doesn't appear that we always have a hand to anyone observant.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

BBB,

thanks for the thoughtful analysis. assuming it gets HU, by your calculations how often does villain need to fold for this to show profit?

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

james - i wasn't being sarcastic...?

it seems like he has a big hand that he's not going to fold and we're just charging ourselves for our big (well disguised) draw that could pay off well if we hit it

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
BBB,

thanks for the thoughtful analysis. assuming it gets HU, by your calculations how often does villain need to fold for this to show profit?

[/ QUOTE ]


Assume that you always win on 9 or K and never otherwise; this happens with 8/46 probability. Assume villain will never reraise your c/r.

Your expected loss if he calls is 8/46-38/46 = -30/46 bb.

If he folds you gain his share of the pot: (11.5+2)*38/46 bb

We seek the breakeven point if he folds with probability P:

(1-P)*30/46 = P* 13.5*38/46
30=(30+13.5*38)P
P=~5.5%

So if he folds 5.5% or more often you are OK; if he sometimes reraises your c/r then you need better odds.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

I don't get any of it. I think considering capping PF is bad, you want to let button keep the initiative here. I don't get the flop lead, or the 3 bet, or the turn check/raise. Do live players fold AK here?

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

Nice [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Whats your play if you miss your card on the river?
Do you bet insta-muck?

FYI I like this play a lot.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

All,

Pay attention to the following.... my image is tighter than usual, and i'm running pretty well and up about 30bbs over the past few hours. along with....

a tight player trying to play well 3bets on the button, ....
the tight player trying to play well will know to stay away from hero

now follow the action....

i bet, 2 passives call, button raises, i 3bet, one of the passives now fold, other loose passive and button call .....ok hero bet and three bet oop....button a player trying to play well will notice this...

hero then attempts to convince player trying to play well he has a real hand by i check, LP checks, button bets, and i checkraise.

most players trying to play well will realize the strength of the hand that villian represents and fold.

If player trying to play well calls, hero must bet the river to win the pot. Again he has forced player trying to play well to make a decision. Hero has now reversed position by his aggression.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
if he sometimes reraises your c/r then you need better odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw most live players are utterly incapable of making this delayed turn raise with AA/QQ. they would just cap the flop.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

The problem is the pot is 14BB on the turn, and the only hand we can credibly rep that he should fold against is 88. Unless he's a real weak tighty he'll think AQ/AK is possible and calldown.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
most players trying to play well will realize the strength of the hand that villian represents and fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Mike, I almost agree with you. But much of the range that James is trying to represent doesn't make sense given preflop.

I suppose the pot is big enough that it doesn't have to work all that often -- particularly since James' draw is very live and he could still catch up if behind. But the pot being big means the villain is calling more, too. And there's a pretty decent chance, with this board, that the villain has a big piece and is never folding.

-McGee

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

I will post the analysis tomorrow, but what I'm starting to tell people is that if your play is so read based and so strong, just do it without having to post/ask.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

As a former simpleton prone to weak tightiness who doesn't play much anymore let me add this to the discussion:

If I am button trying to play well then
1) I want to avoid James.
2) I know bet/3-bet is often a big hand going for value.
3) The flop seems drawless(double-gutter is well hidden).
4) Even with the double-gutter, did he raise JT in EP?
5) I just got suckered into a turn check-raise(rainbow board).

Now I am thinking
1) The pot is big.
2) Does James want LP to fold and why?
3) With what hand does James risk the turn checking through?
4) Will I look like a stooge if I call this down with AK/AJ or less?
5) What hand does LP have? Another ace?
6) James potential monsters are AQ,AA,QQ,88.

I see the merit because, correct me if I am wrong, this 'play' is costing you only 1BB on the turn in a big pot. If called in two places you are giving up a smaller amount in exchange for deception. As for winning the pot ui without showdown - smells like a longshot. The fact that you have a lot of chips in front of you makes me want to stay to the end.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

fwiw, on two occasions i raised UTG, once with AA and once with AKs, got 3bet and only called pf. the AK hand was multiway and the AA hand was HU. most all of the table is aware of this; especially since i flopped a set with the AA hand and when the smoke cleared nobody could believe it when i flipped it over beating a set of 7s.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

Mike, I almost agree with you. But much of the range that James is trying to represent doesn't make sense given preflop.

As a player that trys to play well, I would put James on a hand like AQ given the way he played it. He raised first in and called a reraise preflop. I bet a player like James has played AQ that way over the course of his poker career.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would have thought open-raisng JTs from EP FR in a SS live (loose) game would be bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

depends on how many coldcallers you can expect and how often you get 3bet. also, if there's a couple good/observant players in the game, opening UTG with pretty good hands like 9Ts or JTs can actually get you more action on your big hands as well as conceal EP raises.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
I will post the analysis tomorrow, but what I'm starting to tell people is that if your play is so read based and so strong, just do it without having to post/ask.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not that read based. just seeing a decent spot versus someone that can fold often enough for it to show profit. not to mention there are ancillary benefits to this if it somehow gets showndown.

edit to say: i mean, it's obviously based on a read, but not a very, very specific one. i'm just taking advantage of my image, how i'm running, and how i'm percieved by this player as well as this player's postflop tendencies.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

I like the spirit of the play, but maybe not in this specific scenario.

The button, who is tight, respects us, thinks we are very tight, and is trying to stay out of our way has 3-bet our UTG raise and raised our flop donk on an A-high board. He's not really cooperating.

It seems to me he has at least TPTK, and he isn't going to give you credit for AA or QQ based on pre-flop action. So he really only fears AQ or 88, and thats if he only has AK.

I would like this better if he had just coldcalled preflop, of if he had just called the flop bet, so you could reasonably put him on a hand like KQ or AT.

All that being said, he doesn't have to fold that often to be the right play. I'll post the EV calc in a bit.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
It seems to me he has at least TPTK

[/ QUOTE ]

of course it's possible, but not necessarily his minimum holding. even in this game, flop raises can mean alot of things.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

It seems to me he has at least TPTK, and he isn't going to give you credit for AA or QQ based on pre-flop action. So he really only fears AQ or 88, and thats if he only has AK.

You give players too much credit. Player trying to play well could easily have a hand like 1010 JJ or KK.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

hell no. Limp preflop. Bet/call flop. Check call turn.

This hand is so damn FPS it's just gross.

you will not fold out AK here, and you're not up against KK or JJ. It's *possible* that you will fold out AJ or AT but that's gotta be a small part of his 3 betting range given your image and the cards in your hand.

Just try to make money from the extra callers in the pot. Don't knock them out and try to bluff a guy off an obviously strong hand in a big pot.

Also, your play looks fishy. He won't put you on AA since you just called preflop. He might discount QQ a bit too since you are CRing LP out of the hand and also because you didn't cap preflop.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

Snowball,

Im surprised at you.

I thought you would have considered this a ducy play. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]

I don't get any of it. I think considering capping PF is bad, you want to let button keep the initiative here. I don't get the flop lead, or the 3 bet, or the turn check/raise. Do live players fold AK here?



[/ QUOTE ]

omg the flop lead is HAWT. We have 8 outs to the stone nuts and a backdoor draw in a multiway pot. We're gonna get callers in between us and the raiser frequently because they are too stupid to realize it's gonna be raised behind them and it's *only* one bet to them.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]

You give players too much credit. Player trying to play well could easily have a hand like 1010 JJ or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably. Maybe I'm misinterpreting what it means when we say someone is "trying to play well".

To me it means someone who has read a poker book or two, doesn't have a lot of experience applying the concepts, and is playing straightforward and weak-tight. Is this wrong?

If I'm right, I just don't think that player is raising JJ/TT on an AQx flop after a preflop UTG raiser donks into him on a board where OESD and flush draws are not possible.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Mike, I almost agree with you. But much of the range that James is trying to represent doesn't make sense given preflop.

As a player that trys to play well, I would put James on a hand like AQ given the way he played it. He raised first in and called a reraise preflop. I bet a player like James has played AQ that way over the course of his poker career.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah -- AQ and 88 -- are a part of his range that jive logically with preflop.

But I have outs against the former and am calling the turn -- and is James really firing again if the river blanks off, particularly if it's still three ways? (Let's not forget that there's an apparent calling station still involved here, and that he took a lot of heat on the flop. There's nothing to suggest he folds.) And if he does, are players really folding a top pair, good kicker hand in a pot that big? Not very often. (I know you don't think he has to have a hand that big, but I disagree - he's checking anything less than an ace through on the turn with two opponents).

And we still haven't talked much about the big hands that are certainly a part of the button's range. He could have a set, or AQ himself. In those cases, James is often charging himself three bets to draw when he could've done it for one.

I don't think it's horrible, and I recognize and appreciate the strength James is representing. I just don't think it's the right situation.

-McGee

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It seems to me he has at least TPTK

[/ QUOTE ]

of course it's possible, but not necessarily his minimum holding. even in this game, flop raises can mean alot of things.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough, I'm probably off on his range. What did you consider his range to be at the time you c/r the turn?

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BBB,

thanks for the thoughtful analysis. assuming it gets HU, by your calculations how often does villain need to fold for this to show profit?

[/ QUOTE ]


Assume that you always win on 9 or K and never otherwise; this happens with 8/46 probability. Assume villain will never reraise your c/r.

Your expected loss if he calls is 8/46-38/46 = -30/46 bb.

If he folds you gain his share of the pot: (11.5+2)*38/46 bb

We seek the breakeven point if he folds with probability P:

(1-P)*30/46 = P* 13.5*38/46
30=(30+13.5*38)P
P=~5.5%

So if he folds 5.5% or more often you are OK; if he sometimes reraises your c/r then you need better odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am surprised no one has yet commented on these numbers. I actually calculated the target as 6.7% using similar assumptions, but either way the % where both have to fold is pretty small. So perhaps it is debateable, I don't think the turn raise is spew.

--Rico

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BBB,

thanks for the thoughtful analysis. assuming it gets HU, by your calculations how often does villain need to fold for this to show profit?

[/ QUOTE ]


Assume that you always win on 9 or K and never otherwise; this happens with 8/46 probability. Assume villain will never reraise your c/r.

Your expected loss if he calls is 8/46-38/46 = -30/46 bb.

If he folds you gain his share of the pot: (11.5+2)*38/46 bb

We seek the breakeven point if he folds with probability P:

(1-P)*30/46 = P* 13.5*38/46
30=(30+13.5*38)P
P=~5.5%

So if he folds 5.5% or more often you are OK; if he sometimes reraises your c/r then you need better odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am surprised no one has yet commented on these numbers. I actually calculated the target as 6.7% using similar assumptions, but either way the % where both have to fold is pretty small. So perhaps it is debateable, I don't think the turn raise is spew.

--Rico

[/ QUOTE ]

i missed this post completely. at the table i guesstimated 10% for simplicity, knowing it was high.

did you factor in implied odds, rico?

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

"did you factor in implied odds, rico?"

2BB of implied odds when we hit (turn call and 1 bet on the river)...might be slightly higher with the 3rd opponent in.

--Rico

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
"did you factor in implied odds, rico?"

2BB of implied odds when we hit (turn call and 1 bet on the river)...might be slightly higher with the 3rd opponent in.

--Rico

[/ QUOTE ]

i used 2bb as well. my number was different but i went back and found where i made an error.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

Grunch.

This really seems like spewville here James. You're trying to buy a pot from three opponents w/ a weak gutterball. I'm sure your reads are pushing you towards a play like this, but you've described the button as tight, and they've 3-bet you, which is likely a hand that isn't fold on this flop.

I don't like the flop or turn at all, even w/ the high level of thinking I assume is going on here. Just seems like a poor spot to try this.

Just noticed we have a double gutter here. Doesn't change my opinion though.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

I think w/ the situation at hand and the two bad players in on the flop, they are your biggest obstacle for this play working because they suck and may call down w/ anything, which forces you to make your straight.

I think just drawing passively is best here. HU, would make much more sense to make this play trying to get the button to drop KK on the turn or something.

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

Here's my calc

Assumes you are never 3-bet, and collect one additional river bet in either scenario if you hit. You have 8 outs so you win 8/46 = 17.4% of the time.



EV (Calling) = (.174)(13.5) + (.826)(-1) = 1.523

EV (Raising) = 12.5p + (1-p)[(.174)(14.5) + (.826)(-2)]
= 12.5p + (1-p)(.871)
= 11.629p +.871

Setting the two equations equal and solving for p
11.629p + .871 = 1.523
p = .056 or 5.6%

So where did I go wrong?

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
You give players too much credit. Player trying to play well could easily have a hand like 1010 JJ or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously?

Re: Live Turn Checkraise
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You give players too much credit. Player trying to play well could easily have a hand like 1010 JJ or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes seriously.