NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

Villain is 29/11/1.57 over 120 hands.
A couple of hands before this, I had KK and he called my pf raise oop. Flop came 299, he check-called my cbet and then turn was another 9. I decided to try zeebo him and just pushed when he checked to me(is that good?). He tanked, wrote in the chat "very tempting" but decided to fold. I am not completely sure what to make of this. Anyway does the Baluga theorem apply here? I mean it would probably be a fold if he check-raised me, but I don't know what to do here.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($54.85)
Hero ($56.45)
UTG ($32.85)
Button ($23.70)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, Button folds, SB calls $2.50.

Flop: ($6.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, SB calls $5.

Turn: ($16.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $18</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $46.85</font>, Hero ???

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

villain does seems to have quasi-donkish stats but not retarded

c/c a very dry flop then bet/3 bets the turn - this line is very very strong from a player who hasnt revealed himself to be particularly aggro.

do you think he is doing this with 1 pair? because i do not.

gotta be a fold.

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

i don't think i could fold there for almost 3:1, but i expect to lose a lot

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

I think you could apply Beluga to this hand.

btw, what villain does on the flop/turn is an example of a stop-and-go correct? Or am I making that up?

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

doesn't really matter nearly as much that villain's line is super strong, because he's all-in now, and you can't lose any more on the hand. 3:1 is pretty big odds with AA on that board. can we really be so sure we're beat to fold for tha price? i'm not.

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
doesn't really matter nearly as much that villain's line is super strong, because he's all-in now, and you can't lose any more on the hand. 3:1 is pretty big odds with AA on that board. can we really be so sure we're beat to fold for tha price? i'm not.

[/ QUOTE ]

what hand that we are either ahead of or have odds to call against match this play?

odds should always be considered but we are good here pretty much FA of the time here.

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

this is 8/10 all day, he wants you to push on that turn it looks like by throwing out a bet of 4 dollars, but its just so hard to fold-- just curious did he have 8/10 here? i can't see k 9 or k 7 completing then calling a raise but i could be wrong-- i think in the heat of the moment i call but it looks like a made straight to me

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

well, i just don't think its accurate to say that you're behind here almost certainly. maybe villain views op as bluffy after the hand they played before. maybe he would slowplay a hand like an AK against someone he thinks is bluffy. maybe he has nothing. maybe he has something marginal and is trying to put you to the test. you really don't know for sure, especially at these limits. at worst, you are only taking a small loss here, for some pretty good information. not that i would dump a significant ammount for information, but you just can't be that certain about anything against random, wacky, probable losing, micro limit players, so on that board, with those cards, with those odds, i need something a little more compelling than a strong line to make me fold.

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

but the preflop action, the limp, call reraise OOP, not an AK line-- i mean i have to lean towards call because i can't find it in me what hand he has plays out like that and its good for knowledge but the line really looks like 8/10 to me

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

well, sure. obviously you're much more likely beaten than ahead, but you do realise just how often you're going to be right about to that justify a fold, right?

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

you have to be good ~25% of the time to be neutral ev here.

maybe he does have a pure bluff or has decided to turn his ak into a bluff but that does not account for 25% of the time. not even close.

calling here is -ev.

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

I think it's a 50/50 situation here, half the time you're ahead here and half the time you'll be behind, however, I ran into a situation just like this with an over pair yesterday in which my villan lead into me OOP on turn with a flush draw and stacked off to my all in anyways and hit his flush draw. I think often you will see pair + draws shoving here. Maybe KQ/KT.

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

i agreeee, i say CALL, sorry didn't justify that but this line just screams 8/10... that is all, but i still advocate a call because we only have to win about half of these to be +EV

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

it really looks like 8/10 but I'd probably call anyway because I'd rather lose the money than not win it.

get off the 8/10
 

Everyone's narrowing it to the inside straight draw on the flop? 66 or 99 is more likely of hands that hero is ahead of. Even hands like 67 should be considered.

I just can't believe everyone is settling on ONE hand (the one hand that would make villain the most donkish too).

I also think villain has here hands like AK, KQ or as weak as a draw here enough times that hero should call considering pot odds.

Re: get off the 8/10
 

i dont like it, but with pot odds i think you have to call.

Re: get off the 8/10
 

Wow, I keep going back and forth between folding and calling. Generally, a donk like that screams "DRAW! Please raise me..." to me. And after pushing, I think he might have something like a pair and a flush draw, or even AQd often enough for this to be a call with the odds we're getting. My original thought was that villain might have a set and just be playing it sort of weirdly (small bet on the turn to get Hero to call even if he missed the flop). This is a really tough situation. I probably make the call and expect to be behind most of the time. I really don't know if we have enough equity.

Re: get off the 8/10
 

Sometimes this is a monster, sometimes this is a stubborn AK or even KQ, and sometimes this is a draw that villain got frustrated with. I think his range is wide enough to go ahead and call here.

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

all in

Re: get off the 8/10
 

I have to agree with Kurto here. I think a set is much more likely, or a pair+draw.

I'm thinking 77. Wouldn't villains line make sense then? Completes OOP, calls the raise for setvalue, floats the flop, and then get lucky on the turn?

66 or 99 slowplayed on the flop I think is likely too.

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

He is certainly representing a set and his preflop play make 66 or 99 possible. The post flop play makes it likely.

Since there aren't any obvious draws on the flop the c/c makes sense. You represent a made hand when you bet so now he thinks he can stack you. The small bet on the turn is just asking for a raise.

If I were to guess I would say 75% he has 66 or 99, the other 25% 9Td or KQ The 3:1 pot odds don't make this an easy decision. I'd fold and hate myself.

Re: NL50 AA faces heat on turn
 

Small (compared to pot size) donk bets mean one of two things

1. I have a draw / my draw just improved as I picked up outs, please let me draw cheaply.

2. I have a monster, please raise my weak looking bet so I can hit you with a 3 bet.

Since he 3 bet I would probably fold this. It does seem close though. He could have JTd (would make sense), A9d. However his 3 bet really does leave me to belive he has a hand like a set here, but with his pfr I think he raises 99 in the small blind after one limper, but may just complete 66.

Close but I prob fold. You'll also see 77 here if he likes to float pps.