Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

Blinds 12500/25000 ante 2500

MP1- (266k)Opens to 63000...he's down from a big stack but I don't know if it was bad play/luck. Seemed decent.

BT- (1,029,129) TAG...table chip leader, shoves

SB (Raymer)- Has TT with ~700k...tanks and calls.

Standard? There was some bickering among the rail...including Thayer who was screaming about Raymer flipping for his tourney life (I could not tell if he was leveling).

Raymer's comments after the hand were something like..."almost no chance button has a higher pair...I'm 55/45 or 80/20."

Part of me says with typical ranges and the overlay it's pretty straightforward. But we ARE calling off 28bb with MP1 still to act. I've played the million like 3 times in my life, but in general when a shorty standard raises I am a little suspect. TT seems to be good against buttons iso range.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

Thayer was leveling.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thayer was leveling.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought so since he actually used the words "tourney life". But several were saying this was a horrible spot to call.

Is it a clear call for you Cornell?

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

the sunday million railbirds are possibly the dumbest bunch in poker. it's not an easy call, and I would tank as well, but it's a call.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

i didnt like the call. and i thought they were outside of the blinds? like co shoved and raymer called on button? maybe im wrong

might be a mistake to fold here (small one? or bigger than im thinking?) but i think i do it and stay alive and chip up without showdowns..

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

Call for reasons Raymer listed.

I might hesitate for a second thinking "WTF, I was gonna shove, now THIS GUY SHOVES?!" and then happily put my chips in the middle.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

i'll sometimes fold there, if the shover is a nit or if my mouse is broken.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

i was the player who went allin and i think raymer made a bad call. i certainly would not go allin with a pair lower than tens, i would have just called preflop, and i very well might go allin with jj or QQ.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

here is the hand i got knocked out with. do other people have the experience, as silly as it sounds, that runner runner flush seems to happen too often there.

POKERSTARS GAME #11212204355: TOURNAMENT #56058775, $500+$30 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL XXVII (30000/60000) - 2007/07/30 - 02:19:04 (ET)
Table '56058775 89' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Xaston (2628862 in chips)
Seat 3: fundmyaudi (859215 in chips)
Seat 4: ZULEH (1505836 in chips)
Seat 5: AndreichP (1327439 in chips)
Seat 6: asdf2000 (2835994 in chips)
Seat 7: sacker (2584976 in chips)
Seat 9: GARBANZITO (2560520 in chips)
Xaston: posts the ante 6000
fundmyaudi: posts the ante 6000
ZULEH: posts the ante 6000
AndreichP: posts the ante 6000
asdf2000: posts the ante 6000
sacker: posts the ante 6000
GARBANZITO: posts the ante 6000
ZULEH: posts small blind 30000
AndreichP: posts big blind 60000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sacker [2s 2c]
asdf2000: raises 90000 to 150000
sacker: calls 150000
GARBANZITO: folds
Xaston: folds
fundmyaudi: folds
ZULEH: calls 120000
AndreichP: calls 90000
*** FLOP *** [2d 4d 6h]
ZULEH: checks
AndreichP: checks
asdf2000: bets 400000
sacker: raises 400000 to 800000
ZULEH: folds
AndreichP: folds
asdf2000: raises 1879994 to 2679994 and is all-in
sacker: calls 1628976 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [2d 4d 6h] [Td]
*** RIVER *** [2d 4d 6h Td] [Qd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
asdf2000: shows [Kd Ks] (a flush, King high)
sacker: shows [2s 2c] (three of a kind, Deuces)
asdf2000 collected 5499952 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5499952 | Rake 0
Board [2d 4d 6h Td Qd]
Seat 1: Xaston folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: fundmyaudi (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: ZULEH (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: AndreichP (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: asdf2000 showed [Kd Ks] and won (5499952) with a flush, King high
Seat 7: sacker showed [2s 2c] and lost with three of a kind, Deuces
Seat 9: GARBANZITO folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
i was the player who went allin and i think raymer made a bad call. i certainly would not go allin with a pair lower than tens, i would have just called preflop, and i very well might go allin with jj or QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]


You shoved over a million chips against a shorty (like 16x his raise). Looks like an iso, and you have to admit TT does well against that. Unless Raymer missed a level or 2.
How'd you end up?

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

And proof that the Sunday Million is nothing but a large organized lottery that probably hands out scholarships with the rake money.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
And proof that the Sunday Million is nothing but a large organized lottery that probably hands out scholarships with the rake money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to admit... that made me LMFAO...

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

i came in 13th. here is the raymer hand,
POKERSTARS GAME #11211181234: TOURNAMENT #56058775, $500+$30 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL XXIII (12500/25000) - 2007/07/30 - 00:43:07 (ET)
Table '56058775 89' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Xaston (522294 in chips)
Seat 2: bodog4life (1361276 in chips)
Seat 3: cantbeat (547779 in chips)
Seat 4: VuaXi`Tô' (266146 in chips)
Seat 5: Asprin1 (276432 in chips)
Seat 6: margy (70216 in chips)
Seat 7: sacker (1029129 in chips)
Seat 8: FossilMan (702195 in chips)
Seat 9: Dsavo (726718 in chips)
Xaston: posts the ante 2500
bodog4life: posts the ante 2500
cantbeat: posts the ante 2500
VuaXi`Tô': posts the ante 2500
Asprin1: posts the ante 2500
margy: posts the ante 2500
sacker: posts the ante 2500
FossilMan: posts the ante 2500
Dsavo: posts the ante 2500
Dsavo: posts small blind 12500
Xaston: posts big blind 25000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sacker [As Ks]
bodog4life: folds
cantbeat: folds
VuaXi`Tô': raises 38000 to 63000
Asprin1: folds
margy: folds
sacker: raises 963629 to 1026629 and is all-in
FossilMan: calls 699695 and is all-in
Dsavo: folds
Xaston: folds
VuaXi`Tô': folds
*** FLOP *** [Qd 6s 4h]
*** TURN *** [Qd 6s 4h] [8c]
*** RIVER *** [Qd 6s 4h 8c] [Kc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
sacker: shows [As Ks] (a pair of Kings)
FossilMan: shows [Td Ts] (a pair of Tens)
sacker collected 1522390 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1522390 | Rake 0
Board [Qd 6s 4h 8c Kc]
Seat 1: Xaston (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: bodog4life folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: cantbeat folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: VuaXi`Tô' folded before Flop
Seat 5: Asprin1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: margy folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: sacker showed [As Ks] and won (1522390) with a pair of Kings
Seat 8: FossilMan (button) showed [Td Ts] and lost with a pair of Tens
Seat 9: Dsavo (small blind) folded before Flop

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

Yep I was 1 off position....sorry all

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
i was the player who went allin and i think raymer made a bad call. i certainly would not go allin with a pair lower than tens, i would have just called preflop, and i very well might go allin with jj or QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like you admit you wouldnt push with KK or AA so maybe next time reraise a smaller amount?

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

Perhaps you should have typed "I have AK and am isolating" in the chat before you shoved. I def agree with Raymers assessment, based on the stacks I can't imagine your range having Raymer beat, I think you're looking with a biased eye in regards to your range to make it seem like you outplayed follisman or something.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps you should have typed "I have AK and am isolating" in the chat before you shoved. I def agree with Raymers assessment, based on the stacks I can't imagine your range having Raymer beat, I think you're looking with a biased eye in regards to your range to make it seem like you outplayed follisman or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

obviously my most likely hand is ak however my range is not any pp. it is qq and jj and possibly 99.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
obviously my most likely hand is ak however my range is not any pp. it is qq and jj and possibly 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

So given your incredibly tight range of 99-QQ and AK, he's 47.4 to 52.6 and needs 1.11:1 to call.

He's getting 1.09:1.

Now keep in mind this is for that range, which I think you should definitely take QQ out of at least partially - if you take out 2 of the combinations of QQ now suddenly Raymer is 50/50 vs. your range, and still your range is incredibly tight.

What are you doing with AQ here? Are you really flatting PPs <9s?

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

IMO, Raymers situation is much tougher in the million where people are way less likely to PUT THEIR TOURNAMENT LIFE ON THE LINE!!! light.

In some random stars 109/150 or 100r or what not his logic is excellent, in this tournament it becomes way more borderline unless villain is known thinking player.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

bond,

sacker had everybody covered by like 300k, so he's not really putting his "tournament life on the line"™.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

I think the payout structure goes to making Greg's call good, too.

He went out in 42nd and 28-42 all make the same, so 1/3 of the field remaining will make exactly what he does if he loses his flip ($4,500 - and BTW, I agree that he's ahead of the range). 1st place is $263K - I didn't do the ICM, but doubling up here is huge.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
obviously my most likely hand is ak however my range is not any pp. it is qq and jj and possibly 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

So given your incredibly tight range of 99-QQ and AK, he's 47.4 to 52.6 and needs 1.11:1 to call.

He's getting 1.09:1.

Now keep in mind this is for that range, which I think you should definitely take QQ out of at least partially - if you take out 2 of the combinations of QQ now suddenly Raymer is 50/50 vs. your range, and still your range is incredibly tight.

What are you doing with AQ here? Are you really flatting PPs <9s?

[/ QUOTE ]

I havn't done any math or anything, but I do not think QQ should be discounted. 99 should be eliminated or discounted at least 50%. Also, since the guy is an unknown, I don't think Raymer can totally eliminate KK-AA from his range. Maybe count 2 combos of KK and 1 of AA?

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

I dont get why he cant have AA or KK here, i really dont see much of a bet sizing tell here because, the OR opens for 2.5x with 10bbs total, and the big stack shoves... What does this mean? i really dont discount AA or KK that much. Also i think you have to remember that the OR is still in this hand and could, maybe even should, be huge. He opens for 2.5x, with 10bbs, that is scary.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

This may seem like absolute lunacy, but with a mountain of chips and AsKs, whats would've been wrong with just calling hoping for an iso push with by someone with a small pair to get some additional chips in the middle. Flame away...

Post deleted by Ryan Beal
 

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Golden Casino allows ALL players, including USA players from all 52 states. Get up to $555 Free on your first deposit using this link: .com/golden-casino.html]http://www.[censored].com/golden-casino.html

[/ QUOTE ]

die

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

FWIW Im pretty sure I'd move allin with AA-JJ, but ok thats just me.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
bond,

sacker had everybody covered by like 300k, so he's not really putting his "tournament life on the line"™.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your very right, stupid me, nullifies my point.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW Im pretty sure I'd move allin with AA-JJ, but ok thats just me.

[/ QUOTE ]

WIW = not much in this situation =]

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

[ QUOTE ]

Perhaps you should have typed "I have AK and am isolating"

[/ QUOTE ]

Jamming 1,000,000 chips over a 63,000 open, he pretty much did.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

sacker's range apparently is tighter but I think my range for isolating would be 88+ (maybe 77), AQ+ (maybe AJ).

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

Greg explains his reasoning here:

Greg's post

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

I suck at poker, but say sacker raised to 190k and someone behind him shoves. Is he really laying down AKs at that point given the overlay in chips? If he's not laying down, then why not shove it in to begin with?

I suppose a more standard reraise might look more suspicious and get more people to lay down pockets (like TT). Are they all thinking at that 2nd and 3rd level?

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

Yeh, I think Fossilman has a point that this can be a smaller pp as well as a big ace. It does seem like the call is cEV+, but I wonder if it is $EV+ with 15 players left.

I do think that it is a bigger pp more than Fossilman implies. Sometimes people will push with KK/QQ thinking they don't mind if they are called. Whether or not it is correct thinking, people often think that way rather than in terms of trapping.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

If the read is tight-aggressive (I personally always thought sacker was a maniac), then TT is fine. I agree that AA and KK are nearly impossible but I'm pretty sure QQ is in there too.

Obviously the big question is can you include hands like AQs and the like into sacker's play. 99-QQ, AKo is a pretty crappy range to go booboo with TT, but if it's 88+, AJs+, AQo+ or the like, not so bad.

The overlay helps a little bit too. Raymer in for T702,195 and the resultant pot was T1,522,390, so Raymer was in for 1.168:1.

By the way sacker was cruelly robbed and should have taken the whole thing down.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the payout structure goes to making Greg's call good, too.

He went out in 42nd and 28-42 all make the same, so 1/3 of the field remaining will make exactly what he does if he loses his flip ($4,500 - and BTW, I agree that he's ahead of the range). 1st place is $263K - I didn't do the ICM, but doubling up here is huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

Obviously the initial raiser can have a lot of hands, but I still feel like our analysis is incomplete if we disregard him altogether.

My rule of thumb is that you ought to have a pretty decent chance of holding a dominating hand when you call in these situations, so it really comes down to how often you think the big stack has a lower pair. Regardless of what the guy has posted in this thread, Greg obviously has no way of knowing his exact range. I tend to think Greg is a little optimistic to think the guy would risk a quarter of his stack with 66 or 77, though. Then again, I'm not the one sitting at the table.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

Depending on what level sacker is on, I don't think AA,KK are 'nearly impossible'.
I don't see much of a reason to discount QQ all that much, or JJ at all.

Then again, if we are giving him credit to jam AA, I don't see much of a reason to throw out AQ, or 88-99 for that matter. Without getting to in depth, my assumption would be JJ,AK would be the most likely. Given Greg's expectation if he wins the hand, and the overlay, I think the call is good.

Re: Sunday Million- Raymer\'s bustout hand
 

this thread is dumb and i thought it was stuff like this that caused us to start a new forum