Any two can win!
 

Bay101 20-40:

I have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in BB.

UTG, a tight, white, skinny prop player raises. He for sure has 99+ or KJ+. Literally 5-6 people cold-call, including the SB. I look at my cards and say "I have to call now, right? Any two can win!". Everybody at the table nods their head.

Flop is 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I check, UTG bets, 2 people call, I call. I have like all these great backdoor draws, right? OK, pretty loose call.

Turn is 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I quickly check, UTG makes a measured bet, LP thinks for a long time. Pretty clear LP has two overcards. He finally calls.

I raise, figuring the pot is "protected" and that makes it harder for UTG to call since he's also caught in the middle. So I obviously have to have a big hand here, right? I'm c/r'ing two opponents on a fairly scary board including the preflop raiser...

Retarded, clever? How about the flop peel?

Re: Any two can win!
 

i think this play is entirely dependent on what you consider to be your fold equity. and honestly, you havent given enough info about your opponents to make a good judgement on this play yet.

Re: Any two can win!
 

I think I can fold out LP like 95% of the time. UTG, maybe 35-50%. I guess this makes it an easy raise then, because the pot is easily laying me more than 2:1. Plus I have outs if he calls.

Re: Any two can win!
 

Actually, the interesting part of this hand was that if LP folds, I was probably going to check-call.

I felt that if LP called, my bluff attempt was more likely to succeed because the pot is "protected" and also I catch UTG in the middle. So oddly enough I felt that it was easier to semi-bluff this hand in a 3-way pot than heads-up.

Re: Any two can win!
 

Raising is the most fun action in limit hold'em, but it's not always right.

This is one of those cases.

Everybody is getting 14:1 or better on their calls. So people with a pair are going to call and hope for two. People with a reasonably high heart are also going to call, and see what happens on the river.

Then on the river, if you bet into these people, somebody will call you because it's a $500 pot, and they're curious.

I would expect a counter-argument that you're cleaning your outs, but hearts are always good, jacks are almost certainly good, and aces aren't going away anyway. Not at 14:1.

If your semi-bluff worked, congratulations, those are good results. But I don't like the play at all.

Re: Any two can win!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raising is the most fun action in limit hold'em, but it's not always right.

This is one of those cases.

Everybody is getting 14:1 or better on their calls. So people with a pair are going to call and hope for two. People with a reasonably high heart are also going to call, and see what happens on the river.

Then on the river, if you bet into these people, somebody will call you because it's a $500 pot, and they're curious.

I would expect a counter-argument that you're cleaning your outs, but hearts are always good, jacks are almost certainly good, and aces aren't going away anyway. Not at 14:1.

If your semi-bluff worked, congratulations, those are good results. But I don't like the play at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm...if your villains are 2 of the tighter 2+2ers who are follow most of the strategy given in these forums (2+2 is b/f mania, me included, fwiw) then they arent calling both the turn and river bets without a set, flush, or two pair.

i agree that against most opponents, this play isnt going to work.

Re: Any two can win!
 

I think this raise is great. Your draw is relatively huge and the flush/straight card on the turn is about as good a scare card as you could hope for.

If one of your opponents folds the turn, you will of course have to bet any river. I don't like a C/C under any circumstances because you will vomit if UTG shows AxKh or AxQh.

Obviously don't do this play if you have been caught semi-bluffing before.

Re: Any two can win!
 

If UTG is the type of player that can make big laydowns, then I like this raise. Even if he doesn't fold very often, you've got enough equity that your raise really doesn't cost very much and the protected pot idea ought to at least keep him from 3-betting you.

Re: Any two can win!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, the interesting part of this hand was that if LP folds, I was probably going to check-call.

I felt that if LP called, my bluff attempt was more likely to succeed because the pot is "protected" and also I catch UTG in the middle. So oddly enough I felt that it was easier to semi-bluff this hand in a 3-way pot than heads-up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to clarify, I'm talking about LP's call of UTG's bet on the turn here. If LP folds to UTG's bet, I was probably going to check-call. But when LP made his very weak call of UTG's bet, I knew he had practically nothing and so I check-raised.

If UTG calls my raise, I think I do have to bet the river to fold out AxKh/AxQh. I didn't think LP would call my raise, so I didn't think much about that.

Re: Any two can win!
 

If we give your opponents K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], you're going to draw out to win the pot over 1/3 of the time. If, perchance, UTG throw away his overpair to your turn check-raise, that's a jackpot.

Taking one off on the flop is de rigueur.

Re: Any two can win!
 

if UTG is R.P. he'll have an overpair or K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 100% of the time. i don't know about your image but i'm pretty nitty and he never folds to me.

Re: Any two can win!
 

[ QUOTE ]
if UTG is R.P. he'll have an overpair or K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG, a tight, white, skinny prop player raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't played at Bay 101 in a while, but if it's an early-30's emaciated looking dude that looks a little like Abe Lincoln, I [censored] love this play.

Re: Any two can win!
 

[ QUOTE ]
if UTG is R.P. he'll have an overpair or K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 100% of the time. i don't know about your image but i'm pretty nitty and he never folds to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're a fobby looking azn.

Re: Any two can win!
 

This is probably one the best fold equity plays I know but I don't have the cajones for it.

Re: Any two can win!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if UTG is R.P. he'll have an overpair or K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG, a tight, white, skinny prop player raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't played at Bay 101 in a while, but if it's an early-30's emaciated looking dude that looks a little like Abe Lincoln, I [censored] love this play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know who you're talking about, but it's not that guy. This guy is older, maybe 50's/60's and a lot taller than the short Abe Lincoln dude.

Re: Any two can win!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if UTG is R.P. he'll have an overpair or K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG, a tight, white, skinny prop player raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't played at Bay 101 in a while, but if it's an early-30's emaciated looking dude that looks a little like Abe Lincoln, I [censored] love this play.

[/ QUOTE ]

.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's Steve, I think. Extremely tight - maybe the tightest player I've seen there, but I'm sure he beats the 20 game pretty handily. If it is Steve, his UTG raising range is narrower than given; I'd say TT+/KQs+/AQo+ at the widest.

If Steve sees you as tight then I think this play has some chance of getting him to lay down any non-pair hand right now, even getting 13:1, and a follow-up river bet would fold out his AK/AQ almost certainly. I don't think the third player behind him will affect his decision that much, though, as he has probably also put them on overs.

Combined that with your nut flush outs (and hitting a pair may also be good), I like this play. I don't know that I'd make it, but I like it.

Edit: just saw that the prop is someone else. Against someone who isn't that tight, this may not work.

Re: Any two can win!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if UTG is R.P. he'll have an overpair or K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 100% of the time. i don't know about your image but i'm pretty nitty and he never folds to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're a fobby looking azn.

[/ QUOTE ]
B_BAN PLZ.

Re: Any two can win!
 

I'd usually say this play is a bit spewy, but I think this is actually the right opponent and the right board for it. So I like it.

Re: Any two can win!
 

[ QUOTE ]
if UTG is R.P. he'll have an overpair or K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 100% of the time. i don't know about your image but i'm pretty nitty and he never folds to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure if his name is R.P., I'll check his nametag the next time I see him.

Re: Any two can win!
 

You have as many as 17 outs so even if both players called this wouldn't be a disaster. True, your overcard outs and straight outs might be tainted, although I doubt either of your opponents holds a 6. I think that this is a perfect spot to make this play. No matter what, I bet the river.

Re: Any two can win!
 

BTW, for the Bay101 regulars, I believe the prop's name is Phil.

Re: Any two can win!
 

Arrrr, Capt'n, what be the results?

Re: Any two can win!
 

this guy isn't folding a better hand in a million years.

Re: Any two can win!
 

Results:

Prop thinks for about 6-7 seconds and folds. LP thinks for about 5 seconds (I don't know why, because he has jack-chit) and folds.

7-7-7!

I think prop did have an overpair, because he generally checked into a massive field as the preflop raiser if he missed. It's a tough call for him though, because if I have a straight or flush he's drawing dead with no hearts. If I have two pair and LP or I have a heart, he could be down to as few as 5 non-heart outs.