QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

SB: VPIP ~80 and low aggression numbers (very loose-passive)
MP1 & MP2: no special reads/info

Party Poker 0.15/0.30 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (10 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 13 BB

I feel I might have been too passive. How many of you raise this turn?

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

Call turn. Between SB and PFR you're very often beat and I don't think it's critical to protect your hand here.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

I don't raise that turn, but I sure as hell c/r that flop. Holy missed value, Batman!

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

With an OESD and two overs, I want to raise the flop, not the turn.

With a LPP waking up on the turn, TPGK probably isn't good. I just call there rather than charging myself to draw, especially if MP1 has an overpair/set and wants to make it get really expensive.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

I guess you have about 40% chance that the nut str8 comes on the river, with 4 players you have far enough pot equity to raise. You don't have that anymore on the turn and your top pair looks vulnerable. I would call it down.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

I think I would lead the flop, but, failing that, certainly checkraise for value.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't raise that turn, but I sure as hell c/r that flop. Holy missed value, Batman!

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would lead the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting the flop is a good way to get HU with the PFR.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

From FineStyle:

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you have about 40% chance that the nut str8 comes on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

I presume you mean flop-&gt;river, i.e. when you're deciding what to do on the flop, the chance it will hit on the turn or river. You're wrong. Figure it out, and show your work.

From teampursuit:

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would lead the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Why in the name of Shania would you do that? The PFR is on your immediate left. You bet, he raises, the other two fold, and your drawing odds are shot to hell. otoh, check, let him bet, see what happens...if one or the other of the other two call you can raise for value, if neither of them call you can call knowing you're priced in to draw.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

[ QUOTE ]
From FineStyle:

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you have about 40% chance that the nut str8 comes on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

I presume you mean flop-&gt;river, i.e. when you're deciding what to do on the flop, the chance it will hit on the turn or river. You're wrong. Figure it out, and show your work.


[/ QUOTE ]

O.K.. I have 8 outs, any 8 or K on the flop. 8 outs of 47 unseen cards = 1:4.8 or 20,5%. On the turn I may discount the hearts, but I believe any FD should be out here. With a discount its 6 out out of 46 = 1:6.6 or 15%, with all 8 outs it 1:4.7 or 21%. So overall its 35 or 40%.
If you fear that pf raiser will reraise, o.k. But don't we have even enough odds to call that? Assuming 2 will call that, than there will be 14 SB in the pot (exluding your bets, thats enough for a total bet of 3 SB on the flop.
Please correct me if I'm totally wrong here.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

check raising the flop with the OESD and overs is always good. Very likley to be behind on the river but you may be good 1/12 i guess.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

*grunch*

I tend to lead out here w/ 4 players on the flop. Would you really mind if the PFR raises and makes your Q and J outs clean?? This starts to build the pot up plus masks your hand when you hit it. The rest of the hand plays differently from here.

TWIWP, raise the turn and make MP1 define his hand, good chance you will knock him out and you still have 8 outs to your st8. As played I would call this down from here, but I think you missed a raise on the turn.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

[ QUOTE ]
I tend to lead out here w/ 4 players on the flop. Would you really mind if the PFR raises and makes your Q and J outs clean?? This starts to build the pot up plus masks your hand when you hit it. The rest of the hand plays differently from here.

[/ QUOTE ]
If the PFRer raises, your Q and J outs may not be outs. Without a read he'll raise AK if we donk into him, I'd prefer to not bet and let him raise his JJ+ killing our equity.

It could get really ugly if we donk the flop, PFRer raises with KK or something getting it HU. Then on the J turn, we check/raise only to put a lot of money in while behind.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

[ QUOTE ]
O.K.. I have 8 outs, any 8 or K on the flop. 8 outs of 47 unseen cards = 1:4.8 or 20,5%. On the turn I may discount the hearts, but I believe any FD should be out here. With a discount its 6 out out of 46 = 1:6.6 or 15%, with all 8 outs it 1:4.7 or 21%. So overall its 35 or 40%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, first problem, you're converting your odds to percentages wrong. The percentage of hitting on the next card is simply outs/unseen cards, so 17% flop-&gt;turn. You calculate odds by dividing unseen cards/outs and subtracting 1. What you did was did 1/(unseen cards/outs - 1). Second problem, don't worry about backdoor flush draws until one comes up, so don't worry about discounting anything. Third problem, don't calculate the % you'll hit flop-&gt;turn and the % you'll hit turn-&gt;river and add them together. Rather, do the chance that you WON'T hit on the turn AND river and subtract that from 1 (100%), thusly:

1 - ((39/47) * (38/46)) = .314523 or 31%.

And, the reason that you calculate flop-&gt;river instead of just drawing one is that the pot is big enough you know that even if you miss on the turn you'll still be getting at least 6:1 to call to the river. i.e. you know you'll be going to the river, regardless.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

raise flop to gain outs and/or value

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

[ QUOTE ]
If the PFRer raises, your Q and J outs may not be outs. Without a read he'll raise AK if we donk into him, I'd prefer to not bet and let him raise his JJ+ killing our equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even we were certain AK and will raise with it we don't gain much by protecting our crappy pair outs in a pot this small when we could be getting value on our nut draw.

[ QUOTE ]
raise flop to gain outs and/or value

[/ QUOTE ]

If anyone folds to your c/r it's because PFR 3bet and your pair outs are now worth dick.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
O.K.. I have 8 outs, any 8 or K on the flop. 8 outs of 47 unseen cards = 1:4.8 or 20,5%. On the turn I may discount the hearts, but I believe any FD should be out here. With a discount its 6 out out of 46 = 1:6.6 or 15%, with all 8 outs it 1:4.7 or 21%. So overall its 35 or 40%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, first problem, you're converting your odds to percentages wrong. The percentage of hitting on the next card is simply outs/unseen cards, so 17% flop-&gt;turn. You calculate odds by dividing unseen cards/outs and subtracting 1. What you did was did 1/(unseen cards/outs - 1). Second problem, don't worry about backdoor flush draws until one comes up, so don't worry about discounting anything. Third problem, don't calculate the % you'll hit flop-&gt;turn and the % you'll hit turn-&gt;river and add them together. Rather, do the chance that you WON'T hit on the turn AND river and subtract that from 1 (100%), thusly:

1 - ((39/47) * (38/46)) = .314523 or 31%.

And, the reason that you calculate flop-&gt;river instead of just drawing one is that the pot is big enough you know that even if you miss on the turn you'll still be getting at least 6:1 to call to the river. i.e. you know you'll be going to the river, regardless.

[/ QUOTE ]

Boz is right, but if you don't get it, for some people a more intuitive thought process is you don't add the probabilities of the two events (hitting on the turn or river) together because you have to discount the probability you hit them both, i.e. the union of the probabilities.

Thus: (8/47) + (8/46) - ((8/47)*(8/46)) = 31.45%

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
O.K.. I have 8 outs, any 8 or K on the flop. 8 outs of 47 unseen cards = 1:4.8 or 20,5%. On the turn I may discount the hearts, but I believe any FD should be out here. With a discount its 6 out out of 46 = 1:6.6 or 15%, with all 8 outs it 1:4.7 or 21%. So overall its 35 or 40%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, first problem, you're converting your odds to percentages wrong. The percentage of hitting on the next card is simply outs/unseen cards, so 17% flop-&gt;turn. You calculate odds by dividing unseen cards/outs and subtracting 1. What you did was did 1/(unseen cards/outs - 1). Second problem, don't worry about backdoor flush draws until one comes up, so don't worry about discounting anything. Third problem, don't calculate the % you'll hit flop-&gt;turn and the % you'll hit turn-&gt;river and add them together. Rather, do the chance that you WON'T hit on the turn AND river and subtract that from 1 (100%), thusly:

1 - ((39/47) * (38/46)) = .314523 or 31%.

And, the reason that you calculate flop-&gt;river instead of just drawing one is that the pot is big enough you know that even if you miss on the turn you'll still be getting at least 6:1 to call to the river. i.e. you know you'll be going to the river, regardless.

[/ QUOTE ]

I calculated the odd like that. I just converted it to percentage, which of course is not worthwile while sitting at the table.

Thanx for correcting my error on the combined probability.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just converted it to percentage, which of course is not worthwile while sitting at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on how you think, percentages or odds are equally valid. Just remember to add the 1 back in when going from odds -&gt; percentages.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

I have to admit that raising the flop didn't cross my mind not only during the hand but even while posting it here (I thought I need 6 players to raise on the flop as I had 17% chance of improving on the turn). While raising for free card with OESD (and other draws) is something I do regularly, I feel that I might have missed many raises for value while being OOP with draws after reading replies here. Thanks as I look forward to fix this possible leak in my play.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

[ QUOTE ]

Boz is right, but if you don't get it, for some people a more intuitive thought process is you don't add the probabilities of the two events (hitting on the turn or river) together because you have to discount the probability you hit them both, i.e. the union of the probabilities.

Thus: (8/47) + (8/46) - ((8/47)*(8/46)) = 31.45%


[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'm getting really nitty here over a couple of percent (or maybe I'm being maths dumb again...), but don't you not care if you hit on the turn and river?

So, if you hit on the turn, great, we don't care what comes on the river (disregarding redraws). If we miss on the turn, but hit on the river, that is just as good?

Also, if that second term is the chance of hitting on the turn and river, shouldn't it be ((8/47)*(7/47))?

I'm not being nitty for the sake of it, I just don't know this stuff well. What am I missing?

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Boz is right, but if you don't get it, for some people a more intuitive thought process is you don't add the probabilities of the two events (hitting on the turn or river) together because you have to discount the probability you hit them both, i.e. the union of the probabilities.

Thus: (8/47) + (8/46) - ((8/47)*(8/46)) = 31.45%


[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'm getting really nitty here over a couple of percent (or maybe I'm being maths dumb again...), but don't you not care if you hit on the turn and river?

So, if you hit on the turn, great, we don't care what comes on the river (disregarding redraws). If we miss on the turn, but hit on the river, that is just as good?

Also, if that second term is the chance of hitting on the turn and river, shouldn't it be ((8/47)*(7/46))?

I'm not being nitty for the sake of it, I just don't know this stuff well. What am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP, even though the answer is no.

This is a little nitty when for most circumstances a rough approximation will do, but since you asked: The reason you can't count both is the same as if you have a flush draw and a gutshot you don't count the card that makes your straight and your flush twice. You have 12 outs, not 13.

Similarly here, we don't care if we hit the turn AND the river, just OR the river. Thus, we discount the times we hit both so we don't double-count them.

If it helps, think of it this way: Eight out of 47 times we'll hit the turn . . .

(8/47)

. . . the other 39 times we'll miss, but 8 out of 46 times we'll hit on the river . . .

(8/47) [+ (39/47) * (8/46)]

. . . = 0.3145 = 31.45%, exactly the same result we get through either Boz' or shu's method. If you want to get algebraically supernerdy you can prove that all three equations are the same. Since I am algebraically supernerdy, here goes:

Let x be the odds we'll hit our draw on the turn, i.e. 8/47. Let y be the odds we hit our draw on the river if we miss the turn, i.e. 8/46.

shu's equation is the simplest to see algebraically:

x + y - xy

But boz puts it like this:

1 - [(1 - x) * (1 - y)]

Here we go . . .

= 1 - (1 - y - x + xy)
= 1 - 1 + y + x - xy
= y + x - xy
= x + y - xy, QED.

Mine is:

x + [(1 - x) * y]

Don't worry, this one's quicker:

= x + (y - xy)
= x + y - xy, QED.

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

Yep. Got it. Because we can:

(hit the turn) or (miss the turn and hit the river).

hit the turn = 8/47
miss the turn * hit the river = 39/47 * 8/46

= 8/47 + (39/47 * 8/46)

Ty march. Pretty easy to forget that crap when you havn't done it since high-school. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

If I ever go back and do maths, im so gunna use LDO for QED! amirite!

Re: QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK
 

:newb grunch:

I think I can see merit to both playing this aggresively and passively. The real problem is that the turn was a J of hearts and you now might be dealing with people chasing the flush, in which case you should raise. On the other hand, you might have people drawing only to a chop with you (hence less outs for them) or two pair. The other thing that worries me is that MP1 fired a second bullet into a field where no-one folded the flop (overpair?). If you raise behind him and drive everyone out, and he reraises you with QQ+ thinking you only have your Jack, you'll be calling as a 78/21 dog. Because of this I think I'd probably call the whole way, but I'm interested to see what others have to say.