Big Stacked AKs
 

Bodog $100 144 entrants. 75 left. I am in top 5 in chips.
Villian is new to table.
Blinds are 150/300.
Hero(16,000) is in CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Folds to MP2 (7,500) who raises to 750.
Hero reraises to 2,100.
folds to MP2 who calls.

Pot is 4,500

Flop T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

MP2 checks, Hero?

Comments on PF play welcome.

Pocono Drew

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

all in

my guess he have AQ

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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my guess he have AQ

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why?

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

Hmm...I guess I would probably just shove post-flop. Nothing wrong with taking this down right here.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

You are only really scared of 4 hands here - 10 10 and 7 7 (duh) plus AA and KK. You are a slight favourite over any pair. I can see both c/bing and taking the free card in position. I'd literally flip a coin in my head and just go with my gut on this one. Did he insta-call your R/R or think about it?

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

hero shoves i mean unless u playin to take 16k to the final table and the villain is acting weak (he might b plannin the check shove) but even so then u have outs and this could b a huge pot to take down and there is 1/3 of ur stack in the pot. So pickin it up here is gonna improve ur stack a pretty good deal. So im willing to gamble hear to take it down

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

Oops, misread stack sizes - yeah, I guess you have to shove the flop, given the pot size, villain's stack. And watch him turn over AA. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Even against AA you have some outs. There is no way this AQ unless he is a complete moron. His call of your r/r OOP for 1/3 of his stack is highly suspicious. He is either a fool or has a real good hand - I would not be surprised at all to see AA or KK here.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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all in

my guess he have AQ

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This doesn't make sense to me. Why give him a chance to get away when he only has 2 outs (b/c the Qc is awesome for you).

I'd check behind on this flop and call if he shoves on the turn.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

def. bet pot, I think JJ and QQ are more likely than AA or KK, but betting is your play.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

Why does everyone want to bet?

Is he calling with a worse hand? If so what are they?

Is he folding a better hand? If so which ones?

Is our hand vulnerable if it is ahead? If so to which hands that villain holds?

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

I rarely reraise preflop in position with AK, but his weak attempt at a steal deserves a higher pricetag. I think you want the nuts here so take a free card, for sure. If the turn comes a brick, he's putting you an AK, AQ probably. I'd reraise any turn bet for a free showdown. If you hit the gin card, you're taking his stack. If you peel an Ace or a King, bet half the pot.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

Thanks for the responses.

OK So I decide I'm going to bet as it is a pretty big pot and I wouldn't mind taking it down. If Villian doesn't have TT or 77, I have a crapload of outs so I don't mind putting it all in here. I thought of pushing, but I think that would make my hand look weak and I was trying to represent a big pair, so I bet 3000. Villain of course shoved his 4900 and I called. He showed 99. The board bricked out and I was down to about 9K.

I can see an argument for shoving this flop, but I'm not sure he was folding anyway.

Pocono Drew

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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Thanks for the responses.

OK So I decide I'm going to bet as it is a pretty big pot and I wouldn't mind taking it down. If Villian doesn't have TT or 77, I have a crapload of outs so I don't mind putting it all in here. I thought of pushing, but I think that would make my hand look weak and I was trying to represent a big pair, so I bet 3000. Villain of course shoved his 4900 and I called. He showed 99. The board bricked out and I was down to about 9K.

I can see an argument for shoving this flop, but I'm not sure he was folding anyway.

Pocono Drew

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That's about the worst of his range, and he played it incredibly poorly. How can you call that rr with 9s OOP with his stack? He should have shoved or folded P/F. Or he should have shoved on the flop. But, as usual, idiots get lucky. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

OK, first of all, if I hit an ace on the turn, the last thing I am doing is betting. Maybe with a king. This is not meta-game 305, it's poker 101. If you hit an ace and you bet it after SB checks, he folds. Remember that you 3-bet, so your range is thin enough; checking the ace let's him do the betting for you. Let him try to represent it on the river with a suicide push.

Secondly, and I'm still learning this, there are times where you want to push your flush with overs and times when you want to let it go. If you look at Villain's range, it's 88+; AQs+. If you want to get cute, throw in QJs or A10s, because who the [censored] knows, but let's assume that at 100, a bad player's range is more like the former range here. One thing is for sure, he has so few chips left that your FE totally blows. And he's giving you a free card in hope that you push. So, what do you do here?

Barry

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

I'm taking the free card.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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all in

my guess he have AQ

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This doesn't make sense to me. Why give him a chance to get away when he only has 2 outs (b/c the Qc is awesome for you).

I'd check behind on this flop and call if he shoves on the turn.

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Agree'd. Check behind flop for free card...you have a big hand here.


And if he has another Ace, why do we want him running?


Also, raise a bit more pre-flop. You can get more value out of this hand.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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Why does everyone want to bet?

Is he calling with a worse hand? If so what are they?

Is he folding a better hand? If so which ones?

Is our hand vulnerable if it is ahead? If so to which hands that villain holds?

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1) Because either our hand is best or we're flipping, and we should have some FE on our bet.

2) I don't think we can expect a reasonable call from a worst hand, except for the random awful donk call from like a worse A that is just really confused.

3) I think we do have some FE against JJ especially, hands like 99 and 88 that just couldn't fold initially, maybe a nitty QQ, but probably not.

4) Our hand is vulnerable to under pairs, that we're now flipping with, when we brick the turn. Additionally, if we make a pair on the turn (or maybe a flush even,) we're likely to not get action from QQ and JJ, so it's not like we can get action from them on later streets. We may fold JJ lower pairs out on the flop, but if we brick the turn I'd say we have no FE against those hands, and indeed they're probably shoving a non A or K turn (JJ may check again if the turn is a queen, but QQ is probably also checking a turn Q, so that doesn't help us all that much. Additionally, turn Q means AQ got there, which makes it not the greatest card in the world to shove at, even if we could fold JJ.) Our hand isn't vulnerable to AQ, but I can't really imagine AQ putting more money in this hand while still behind unless like the Qc hits on the turn or something.

edit: Ok, I revised it, I still think it's a push, but it's closer than I thought initially.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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Why does everyone want to bet?

Is he calling with a worse hand? If so what are they?

Is he folding a better hand? If so which ones?

Is our hand vulnerable if it is ahead? If so to which hands that villain holds?

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1) Because we rate to have the best hand right now, but won't if the turn bricks.

2) QQ and JJ will almost certainly call, and they are pretty solidly behind (and are also the most likely villain holdings.)

3) I don't know that a better hand is folding, but although QQ and JJ are behind us, we profit more when they fold than we do when they call, and JJ could certainly decide to fold here given the action.

4) Our hand is vulnerable to under pairs when we brick the turn. Additionally, if we make a pair on the turn, we're likely to not get action from QQ and JJ, so it's not like we can get action from them on later streets. We may fold JJ and QQ out on the flop, but if we brick the turn I'd say we have no FE against those hands, and indeed they're probably shoving a non A or K turn (JJ may check again if the turn is a queen, but QQ is probably also checking a turn Q, so that doesn't help us all that much. Additionally, turn Q means AQ got there, which makes it not the greatest card in the world to shove at, even if we could fold JJ.) Our hand isn't vulnerable to AQ, but I can't really imagine AQ putting more money in this hand while still behind unless like the Qc hits on the turn or something.

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All good answers. Thank you. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I guess I am not worried about turn bricks because there is no way I am folding this hand to any turn card anyway. I also think that checking behind on the flop might put this thought in his mind, "Oh he missed! Now I can shove-bluff the turn!" Of course when he does you snap call and he is screwed on a hand that he would have folded to a flop shove.

Anyhow, given his stack and the size of the pot, there is no way I am folding this hand on the turn anyway. I might as well let him fire away. It seems to me that the only way the $ is not going into this pot by the turn is if I shove the flop and he folds a worse hand.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

yeah a check back here is good.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

shoveeeeeeeeeeeee. Theres 4500 in the pot and he has 5400 behind. We have a big draw, just stick it in there. We cant play pot control or anything like that. The pot is big enough to take it now ,,,shoveeeee (or bet 4k, same thing)...

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

Yeah they would have been good answers if I could do math. Anyway, If he could call the reraise with an unpaired hand besides AQ I'm more of a fan of checking behind and letting him bluff. Sometimes I make the mistake of assuming that since I'd only call it with AQ (barring reads of course) I assume he won't either, which is probably not the case, thus my tidy ROI. I assumed his range was mostly pairs, and we'd have to fold on the turn. Putting villain on a range that allows us to call a turn shove makes checking the flop a lot better.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

People who are saying check behind are we calling a shove on a 2 spade turn? If not then this is awful.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

The catch is that if you shove...at least I know if someone shoves a flop on me, it's typically not a made hand, but strong draw semi-bluff - I never see shoving for value unless it was a slowplayed monster on the river.

So if someone shoves here, I'm calling if I have any part of the board or any PP...I'm folding AQ, KQ here or any other unpaired non-AK hand.


So worse hands fold, better hands call - technically if better hands call you're still getting odds and it's not bad, but making worse hands fold is bad. Worse hands will bet(as stated repeatedly here) on the turn because they think you are scared.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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Why does everyone want to bet?

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Because we're the favorite to any pair, half the overpairs (and getting odds 1 in 3 to call AA KK maybe..too lazy for the math). We're calling mosts turn bets so I try to end this here and now. Big enough pot. That's my why....

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

checking behind this flop is sooooo bad for reasons already given

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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People who are saying check behind are we calling a shove on a 2 spade turn? If not then this is awful.

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Yes.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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People who are saying check behind are we calling a shove on a 2 spade turn? If not then this is awful.

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Yes.

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Still hate it. Med pairs and such might shove turn and they might of folded the flop. This justs seems really bad. Shoving flop is sooo much better.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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People who are saying check behind are we calling a shove on a 2 spade turn? If not then this is awful.

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Yes.

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Still hate it. Med pairs and such might shove turn and they might of folded the flop. This justs seems really bad. Shoving flop is sooo much better.

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Depends what turns they're shoving and what turns they won't and the likelyness of such.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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my guess he have AQ

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stfu

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

people who say check: you. are. wrong.

shove, or bet like 4/5 pot if you think it looks scarier

just get it in though

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

[ QUOTE ]
people who say check: you. are. wrong.

shove, or bet like 4/5 pot if you think it looks scarier

just get it in though

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seriously

jam the flop, if he folds- sweet, if he calls- get there. it's that simple here.

as for the person who said they were calling a brick turn shove....whaaaaa? You don't want to move in and make someone fold but want to call allin and HAVE to get there?

hand looks very good as long as you bombed the flop.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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People who are saying check behind are we calling a shove on a 2 spade turn? If not then this is awful.

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Yes.

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Still hate it. Med pairs and such might shove turn and they might of folded the flop. This justs seems really bad. Shoving flop is sooo much better.

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I've mentioned several times why I like checking behind on the flop and this will be the last time I mention it.

Checking behind on the flop allows the villain to incorrectly play more hands in his range. Sure, if he has a middle pair checking behind lets him see a brick. But I don't really care. I am committed on this flop anyway.

Read: I am not folding from the flop on. So what makes the difference when I get the $ in?

By checking on the flop we allow villain the opportunity to mis-play other hands in his range like AQ,KQ,AJ,AK w/e. If the turn bricks and villain shoves, he is now likely shoving with a wider range than on the flop. This makes calling the turn more +EV than it seems because sometimes he shoves and our AK high is good.

However, if we shove the flop against some of the weaker hands in his range, he folds. He gets away with a hand that we might have convinced him to shove on the turn. Once again, I don't care if he has a pair because I don't intend on folding the turn anyway. BTW, if villain really folds any pair on this flop to a shove, that is just terrible.

Can anyone answer this question: If I am going to see all five cards on this hand anyway, what makes the difference if I get the $ in on the flop or on the turn?

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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people who say check: you. are. wrong.

shove, or bet like 4/5 pot if you think it looks scarier

just get it in though

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as for the person who said they were calling a brick turn shove....whaaaaa? You don't want to move in and make someone fold but want to call allin and HAVE to get there?


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What do you mean have to get there? Who said he only shoves a better hand on the turn? Our AK might still be the best hand when he shoves the turn. That's the whole reason for checking the flop. Otherwise checking the flop would be dumb.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

I bet like 4,000 on the flop or something that obviously shows we're not folding.

I mean you have a ton of outs vs 95% of his range + a decent amount of FE.

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Read: I am not folding from the flop on. So what makes the difference when I get the $ in?

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He can fold some pairs on the flop if we bet. Get it in as 50/50 on the flop not as a dog on the turn when we miss. Checking the flop is too weak IMO it's not like we're checking AA/KK here. ever. so bet.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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I bet like 4,000 on the flop or something that obviously shows we're not folding.

I mean you have a ton of outs vs 95% of his range + a decent amount of FE.

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Read: I am not folding from the flop on. So what makes the difference when I get the $ in?

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He can fold some pairs on the flop if we bet. Get it in as 50/50 on the flop not as a dog on the turn when we miss. Checking the flop is too weak IMO it's not like we're checking AA/KK here. ever. so bet.

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He should never ever fold a pair on this flop. If you raise/call PF with a pair and hit a flop this good, you should be shoving the flop. Therefore, villain SHOULD NOT have a pair (unless he has a boat or quads) at this point. Of course, that doesn't mean he doesn't have a pair. But a good thinking opponent, never has a pocket pair here.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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He should never ever fold a pair on this flop. If you raise/call PF with a pair and hit a flop this good, you should be shoving the flop. Therefore, villain SHOULD NOT have a pair (unless he has a boat or quads) at this point. Of course, that doesn't mean he doesn't have a pair. But a good thinking opponent, never has a pocket pair here.

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Just because people "shouldn't" do something doesn't mean they don't. You have no read that villian is a "good thinking opponent".

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

I think it's amazing that this post is still going on.

Barry

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

Barry, the reason this post is still going is because it is about maximizing equity against a villain's hand range. No doubt an important part of poker.



Ok. Let's try some math.

I think this is a reasonable hand range for villain PF 66+,ATs+,ATo+,KQs+,KQo+.

If we shove the flop he calls with 66+,ATs,ATo. That means he folds the flop 48% of the time. We pick up t4650. 52% of the time he calls and we have 44% equity (see below).


Board: Tc 7c 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.807% 55.63% 00.18% 26985 87.00 { 66+, ATs, ATo }
Hand 1: 44.193% 44.01% 00.18% 21351 87.00 { AcKc }

With his remaining stack and our call that makes the total pot 15,450. 44% of the times he calls we win t4441 and 56% of the time we lose 3013 for a net gain of +t1428.

So 48% of the time (we he folds) we win 4650 uncontested and 52% of the time (when he calls) we win 1428 for a total net gain of t6078.

So what happens when we check? Now we have to assume that villain shoves a certain % of turn cards, check/folds a certain %, and check/calls a certian %.


I'll begin first with when he checks. Let's again assume that he has the same hand range (as we should). When he checks, given that we don't know anything about the turn card, we have to assume that he will fold to our shove a certain % of the time and call a certain % of the time. Because we don't know what the turn will bring, let us again assume the same calling and folding range as on the flop.

So 48% of the time he will fold and we win 4650 unconetested. 52% of the time he will call and we will still win 44% of the time (t4441) and lose 56% of the time (3013) for a net gain of t1428. We don't know what the turn card will be so we can't assume any differenlty. Beyond that, arguments can be made both ways: "He'll fold a pocket pair to a shove on a Q or J turn." "He won't fold a pocket pair to a shove on a 2s turn."

So when the villain checks to us, we win 4650 48% of the time (he folds) and we win 1428 52% of the time (he calls) for a net gain of t6078. Notice this is the same math as above for shoving the flop.

However, this is only when the villain checks to us. What happens when he shoves into us on the turn? Well now at least some of the time, he is shoving with a worse hand. Given that we stand to make just as much for shoving the turn as we do for shoving the flop, we obviously make even more by calling his sometimes bluffs on the turn.


Against his full range of 66+,ATs+,ATo+,KQs+,KQo+, we have 58% equity w/out knowing the turn card.

Board: Tc 7c 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.141% 39.93% 02.22% 25297 1403.50 { 66+, ATs+, KQs, KQo }
Hand 1: 57.859% 55.64% 02.22% 35256 1403.50 { AcKc }



In summation, by shoving the flop we gain t6078. By waiting until the turn and either calling his shove or shoving ourselves, we gain t6078 + tXXXX depending on his bluffing frequency.


Thus, it is plainly obvious to me that if villain ever ever bluff-shoves the turn, we do better than just open-shoving the flop.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

Look this hand is pretty simple. The more unpaired hands that villain's range contains, the more desirable checking the flop becomes. I personally can't really imagine AT and KQ here ( or some of the lower pairs,) but whatever, I'm done arguing that. So the discussion is about what we think villain's range is, not how to play the hand. Sherman has villain on a wider range than most of the rest of us, that's fine, I honestly don't know who's right. If villain's range is AQ+ 88+, shoving the flop is pretty clearly correct. If villain has the range that Sherman just depicted, then it seems checking behind is pretty clearly correct.

Re: Big Stacked AKs
 

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Look this hand is pretty simple. The more unpaired hands that villain's range contains, the more desirable checking the flop becomes. I personally can't really imagine AT and KQ here ( or some of the lower pairs,) but whatever, I'm done arguing that. So the discussion is about what we think villain's range is, not how to play the hand. Sherman has villain on a wider range than most of the rest of us, that's fine, I honestly don't know who's right. If villain's range is AQ+ 88+, shoving the flop is pretty clearly correct. If villain has the range that Sherman just depicted, then it seems checking behind is pretty clearly correct.

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But it is also a clear check behind against the range that is 88+,AQ. Because if villain ever bluffs the turn, or shoves with a worse hand, checking the flop is +EV.

Just so long as villain's hand range doesn't contain only pairs, check the flop has to be correct. And as I said before, if I am villain in this hand I always shove this flop if I have a pocket pair. What more could a pocket pair hope for taking a flop here?