100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

Got some mixed advice on this one from various posters so figured I'd post it for discussion's sake. 100-200 NL, effective stacks 60k. Villain is a mid-20's or so internet player from the Bay Area but wouldn't give his sn to the guy sitting next to me. All I know about him is that he wanted to play the 500-1k NLHE/PLO game in Bobby's Room but couldn't get a seat, so he's probably pretty good.

Anyway, he had been playing very aggressively and I have a somewhat LAGgy image. Two relevant hands: he raised in EP I reraised OTB to 5400 and he called. The flop came down A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and he checkraised my 3k c-bet to 10k and folded to my shove for 25k or so more. I showed the T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Another hand I raised UTG and he repraised OTB to 2400, I 4bet him to 12k and he laughed like he couldn't believe this sick spot and folded.

Anyway, onto the hand: I raise UTG+1 to 700 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] folded to him in the SB and he reraises to 2400, I call. Somebody makess some idiot live comment like "you guys just want us to clear out and you two can play HU all the time? We're just getting in the way!" Nobody laughs.

Flop (5000): K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
He bets 4k and I float it.
Turn (13000): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
He looks at me, thinks for 15 seconds or so, and checks ina weird way (with his arms crossed, he taps his rib cage) while staring at me. I go "you check?" he says "yeah" and I think for about 5 seconds and bet 8k. (should probably have bet 10k but there were some logistics with my chips and I just decided 8 should do it).
He calls after just a few seconds of thought.
River (29000): A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

We each have 45k behind. Who checks? Who bets? If you bet, how much?

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

I'd bet for sure, esp given your history. Youngish internet player prob means he knows how to read hands and can call you down light if he puts you on a busted draw. I'd bet 22-25k.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

I'd bet about 20k. If he pushed I'd be very tempted to call. QQ-TT seem very likely and if villain is who I think he is he's capable of some crazy stuff (and very good).

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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I'd bet about 20k. If he pushed I'd be very tempted to call. QQ-TT seem very likely and if villain is who I think he is he's capable of some crazy stuff (and very good).

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Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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Villain is a mid-20's or so internet player from the Bay Area but wouldn't give his sn to the guy sitting next to me.

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GoG?

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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I'd bet for sure, esp given your history. Youngish internet player prob means he knows how to read hands and can call you down light if he puts you on a busted draw. I'd bet 22-25k.

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Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

i like the value bet. spots like this can send certain guys on tilt when they pay you off with a worse hand on the river. that's always a plus. i would bet about 25k.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

The way you guys were battling, i was surprised you didn't bet the river. Your line would look extremely bluffy. Against most players I think a check is standard unless you don't won't to reveal your hand

I think I made the "idiot" heads up comment, I did laugh though

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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The way you guys were battling, i was surprised you didn't bet the river. Your line would look extremely bluffy. Against most players I think a check is standard unless you don't won't to reveal your hand

I think I made the "idiot" heads up comment, I did laugh though

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Nah, I'm pretty sure the guy who said it was sitting between me and villain. If it was, no biggie, we all say stupid stuff live from time to time (not that that was particularly dumb, I was just referring to the generic live comments that so annoy us online players). Just too much time sitting in one place I guess.

And yeah, I really wanted to bet (you heard me call myself a [censored] before checking) but I had a couple reasons I want to see if anybody comes up with.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

my standard would prob be to bet 20kish

what are thoughts on betting something gay like 10k and snap calling a shove?

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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my standard would prob be to bet 20kish

what are thoughts on betting something gay like 10k and snap calling a shove?

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the 10k and calling a shove idea is capitalizing on the same human instinct that involves having sex in an elevator with a girl you just met in the elevator or the one that drives you to take your umbrella and smack the back of a new york yellow cabbie that pisses the [censored] out of you.

against the right guy in the right mindset, who acts impulsively and is checking his blackburry, drowning redbulls, and pulsating in his neck--go for it baby. i recommend starting in LA against an asian guy or against a random guy with a 50k watch on in workout clothes.

against the calculated, more articulate, calm internet pro who likely has seen this type of [censored] more times than you've watched porn in your life, bet 20k.

then when he shoves say [censored] and fold

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

It seems really unlikely that he has a hand that beats you given how he played this.

I'm not sure why your line looks bluffy (as someone mentioned). Dunno, it seems to me that if you bet that river you're repping a bunch of scary stuff.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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my standard would prob be to bet 20kish

what are thoughts on betting something gay like 10k and snap calling a shove?

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the 10k and calling a shove idea is capitalizing on the same human instinct that involves having sex in an elevator with a girl you just met in the elevator or the one that drives you to take your umbrella and smack the back of a new york yellow cabbie that pisses the [censored] out of you.

against the right guy in the right mindset, who acts impulsively and is checking his blackburry, drowning redbulls, and pulsating in his neck--go for it baby. i recommend starting in LA against an asian guy or against a random guy with a 50k watch on in workout clothes.

against the calculated, more articulate, calm internet pro who likely has seen this type of [censored] more times than you've watched porn in your life, bet 20k.

then when he shoves say [censored] and fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Poetry....

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

strassa has also been eating those weed brownies aparently

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

strassssssssss

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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I'd bet about 20k. If he pushed I'd be very tempted to call. QQ-TT seem very likely and if villain is who I think he is he's capable of some crazy stuff (and very good).

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x2then?

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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The way you guys were battling, i was surprised you didn't bet the river. Your line would look extremely bluffy. Against most players I think a check is standard unless you don't won't to reveal your hand

I think I made the "idiot" heads up comment, I did laugh though

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Nah, I'm pretty sure the guy who said it was sitting between me and villain. If it was, no biggie, we all say stupid stuff live from time to time (not that that was particularly dumb, I was just referring to the generic live comments that so annoy us online players). Just too much time sitting in one place I guess.

And yeah, I really wanted to bet (you heard me call myself a [censored] before checking) but I had a couple reasons I want to see if anybody comes up with.

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what did he have??? pair between K and the 5 i assume?

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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The way you guys were battling, i was surprised you didn't bet the river. Your line would look extremely bluffy. Against most players I think a check is standard unless you don't won't to reveal your hand

I think I made the "idiot" heads up comment, I did laugh though

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Nah, I'm pretty sure the guy who said it was sitting between me and villain. If it was, no biggie, we all say stupid stuff live from time to time (not that that was particularly dumb, I was just referring to the generic live comments that so annoy us online players). Just too much time sitting in one place I guess.

And yeah, I really wanted to bet (you heard me call myself a [censored] before checking) but I had a couple reasons I want to see if anybody comes up with.

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what did he have??? pair between K and the 5 i assume?

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and if we're villain, do we sometimes call with a hand like 65? I mean, if we're calling with TT here, do we also call with 65 as well??

-Joo

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

Bet ~20k for sure. Villain may call with many worse hands imo.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

I'm reading your post on whether or not to be A2. If you could stream of consciousness answer me, what factors do you think should come into play when the Villain decides to call you with like 34 or 77. Besides "flow" (past bluffs, frequencies) anything else that comes to mind? Board development? If a spade hits, should the Villain be more or less inclined to call (because obv you would bluff sometimes with like 55 if a spade hits).

anyway, here is my post that wrote:

What factors should come into play when making thin river calls. Anything more than just Opp frequency of doing so. Obv board development on the turn and river is important. I think when the turn and river come T A, we should be more likely to call than if it was A T. What about when draw cards on the river hit? In certain posts, I see people say "if a third spade comes, then you should be more likely to check-call the river bet". I guess if we put him on a hand that isnt a draw... then we should be more likely to call off.


Anyway, FF was talking about a hand in which he debates thinly betting the river with A2 on a board that reads:

K 3 2 T A , T on the turn, A on the river.

Villain is OOP and bets the flop of K32. FF floats the flop with A2 by calling an 8k bet, and when checked to bets 9k on the T turn, and then is checked to on the A river.

His opponant, after calling FF turn bet, is on a hand range that probably includes a King, an A, aces up, 66-QQ, maybe 34s, 45, 56 sometimes?, and spades.

My question: If we are the Villain, what factors should come in before making calls with the mid pairs, or even a 3. should we even consider making a call with a 3 here? I'm asking because I seem to be wrong often (obv being wrong often is part of thin value calling), but I want to make sure I'm not overdoing it. I seem to sometimes make these calls without thinking and I think I may be overdoing it.


So, What are all the factors that should come into play here? Anything else besides the flow, agg of opponant? Board development? Draw cards hitting or not hitting?




If you have the time to answer, please do. I am very interested to hear your thoughts. I feel like I call way too much here and I feel so stationey for doing so.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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the 10k and calling a shove idea is capitalizing on the same human instinct that involves having sex in an elevator with a girl you just met in the elevator or the one that drives you to take your umbrella and smack the back of a new york yellow cabbie that pisses the [censored] out of you.


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good lord, obv the voice of experience, momentary loss of impulse control is not so black and white

this is like 20 completely different possible mental processes if you consider whether you are drunk/sober/going up/coming down and whether the (possibly very) hypothetical girl is hot/avg/dog ugly and whether your umbrella is working and whether it's raining and whether you are married/single/boy-trapped-in-a-girl's body/other, whether you have ever had sex in an elevator, whether it was good sex, whether you caught a diseasej/still have it/are cured, whether you have ever had sex at all/desperately want to/desperately avoiding it (unlikely) ... omg please

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

Not so thin..this is a black and white protect your bluffs value bet. If you'd ever fire off 20k with QJs here then you need to bet the ace. You start checking back top pair in a spot like this and you'll have a tough time firing 2 or 3 barrels in the future against observant opponents. You are likely ahead, and you gain a ton of value if he doesn't call, too, for obvious reasons. Be interested to hear what he had(and who he was for that matter).

James

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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Not so thin..this is a black and white protect your bluffs value bet. If you'd ever fire off 20k with QJs here then you need to bet the ace. You start checking back top pair in a spot like this and you'll have a tough time firing 2 or 3 barrels in the future against observant opponents. You are likely ahead, and you gain a ton of value if he doesn't call, too, for obvious reasons. Be interested to hear what he had(and who he was for that matter).

James

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nice post. you too strassa.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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my standard would prob be to bet 20kish

what are thoughts on betting something gay like 10k and snap calling a shove?

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the 10k and calling a shove idea is capitalizing on the same human instinct that involves having sex in an elevator with a girl you just met in the elevator or the one that drives you to take your umbrella and smack the back of a new york yellow cabbie that pisses the [censored] out of you.

against the right guy in the right mindset, who acts impulsively and is checking his blackburry, drowning redbulls, and pulsating in his neck--go for it baby. i recommend starting in LA against an asian guy or against a random guy with a 50k watch on in workout clothes.

against the calculated, more articulate, calm internet pro who likely has seen this type of [censored] more times than you've watched porn in your life, bet 20k.

then when he shoves say [censored] and fold

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I'm assuming FWF fits into your description of calculated, calm internet pro? The same FWF that very seriously considered coming over the top of Viffer's same-size-as-turn river bet with air (busted draw)? Granted we'd much rather be doing this with a stronger kicker than the 2, but betting 10k with the intention of calling a shove seems about the same.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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Not so thin..this is a black and white protect your bluffs value bet. If you'd ever fire off 20k with QJs here then you need to bet the ace. You start checking back top pair in a spot like this and you'll have a tough time firing 2 or 3 barrels in the future against observant opponents. You are likely ahead, and you gain a ton of value if he doesn't call, too, for obvious reasons. Be interested to hear what he had(and who he was for that matter).

James

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Nice post. Could you explain what the obv value of him not calling would be, besides not having to show down your hand.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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Not so thin..this is a black and white protect your bluffs value bet. If you'd ever fire off 20k with QJs here then you need to bet the ace. You start checking back top pair in a spot like this and you'll have a tough time firing 2 or 3 barrels in the future against observant opponents. You are likely ahead, and you gain a ton of value if he doesn't call, too, for obvious reasons. Be interested to hear what he had(and who he was for that matter).

James

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Nice post. Could you explain what the obv value of him not calling would be, besides not having to show down your hand.

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your turn gutshot floats remain respectable... because it looks like you have a mosnter here.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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Not so thin..this is a black and white protect your bluffs value bet. If you'd ever fire off 20k with QJs here then you need to bet the ace. You start checking back top pair in a spot like this and you'll have a tough time firing 2 or 3 barrels in the future against observant opponents. You are likely ahead, and you gain a ton of value if he doesn't call, too, for obvious reasons. Be interested to hear what he had(and who he was for that matter).

James

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Nice post. Could you explain what the obv value of him not calling would be, besides not having to show down your hand.

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If your opponent doesnt know you can float a gutter on the bad board..you gain a lot of value in the future. When he folds the river you look disappointed, tap the table and rake the pot.

James

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

His opponent expected him to float everything.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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my standard would prob be to bet 20kish

what are thoughts on betting something gay like 10k and snap calling a shove?

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the 10k and calling a shove idea is capitalizing on the same human instinct that involves having sex in an elevator with a girl you just met in the elevator or the one that drives you to take your umbrella and smack the back of a new york yellow cabbie that pisses the [censored] out of you.

against the right guy in the right mindset, who acts impulsively and is checking his blackburry, drowning redbulls, and pulsating in his neck--go for it baby. i recommend starting in LA against an asian guy or against a random guy with a 50k watch on in workout clothes.

against the calculated, more articulate, calm internet pro who likely has seen this type of [censored] more times than you've watched porn in your life, bet 20k.

then when he shoves say [censored] and fold

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

GoG,

I heard he challenged his opponent to a series of HU matches online. Do you know anything about that?

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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the 10k and calling a shove idea is capitalizing on the same human instinct that involves having sex in an elevator with a girl you just met in the elevator or the one that drives you to take your umbrella and smack the back of a new york yellow cabbie that pisses the [censored] out of you.

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i read this like 5 times and i still have no idea what the hell it means

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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GoG,

I heard he challenged his opponent to a series of HU matches online. Do you know anything about that?

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gogogogogo

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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Not so thin..this is a black and white protect your bluffs value bet. If you'd ever fire off 20k with QJs here then you need to bet the ace. You start checking back top pair in a spot like this and you'll have a tough time firing 2 or 3 barrels in the future against observant opponents. You are likely ahead, and you gain a ton of value if he doesn't call, too, for obvious reasons. Be interested to hear what he had(and who he was for that matter).

James

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Nice post. Could you explain what the obv value of him not calling would be, besides not having to show down your hand.

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becaus if villain sees you checky checky two pairy he thinks next time when you take this line and bet river that you have nutsy nutsy or bluffy bluffy cause you no betty two pairy

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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the 10k and calling a shove idea is capitalizing on the same human instinct that involves having sex in an elevator with a girl you just met in the elevator or the one that drives you to take your umbrella and smack the back of a new york yellow cabbie that pisses the [censored] out of you.

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i read this like 5 times and i still have no idea what the hell it means

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its some sort of macho, "for the glory", idea of us being the awesomest. Its a flaw of ours that comes with being male. didnt you get the memo?

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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Not so thin..this is a black and white protect your bluffs value bet. If you'd ever fire off 20k with QJs here then you need to bet the ace. You start checking back top pair in a spot like this and you'll have a tough time firing 2 or 3 barrels in the future against observant opponents. You are likely ahead, and you gain a ton of value if he doesn't call, too, for obvious reasons. Be interested to hear what he had(and who he was for that matter).

James

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Nice post. Could you explain what the obv value of him not calling would be, besides not having to show down your hand.

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becaus if villain sees you checky checky two pairy he thinks next time when you take this line and bet river that you have nutsy nutsy or bluffy bluffy cause you no betty two pairy

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Hero doesn't have two pair, he has top pair bottom kicker

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

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Not so thin..this is a black and white protect your bluffs value bet. If you'd ever fire off 20k with QJs here then you need to bet the ace. You start checking back top pair in a spot like this and you'll have a tough time firing 2 or 3 barrels in the future against observant opponents. You are likely ahead, and you gain a ton of value if he doesn't call, too, for obvious reasons. Be interested to hear what he had(and who he was for that matter).

James

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Nice post. Could you explain what the obv value of him not calling would be, besides not having to show down your hand.

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becaus if villain sees you checky checky two pairy he thinks next time when you take this line and bet river that you have nutsy nutsy or bluffy bluffy cause you no betty two pairy

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Hero doesn't have two pair, he has top pair bottom kicker

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hm yeah i got confused by the JooWishes post and my post was drivel anyway

When i read OP i wasn't sure about the bet, when I read JooWishes summare (who said the board was K32QA) I was obv pretty sure about a bet.

As played in OP, pot is huge by the river and even though our flop/turn combo may look bluffy (which obv makes the float not so great), betting the ace does look kinda strong, even though there are a ton of draws that missed. If we'd bet it, i'd bet strongly though, exactly for the reasons James282 mentioned. We may get called by worse which will make up for our failed attempt to bluff on earlier streets and our future river bets will be much harder to read. I'd fold to a check/raise.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

id check the river.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

Why would you check the river? The ace looks like a perfect bluff card.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

Thinking about this hand a bit more, the question whether you can bet this or not is almost completely dependent on how often GoG calls with worse, right?

So the issue is the level we are on, or state in which the metagame is. Or simply put: does he expect your ~potbet to be a bluff most of the time or not?

If we bet the river strong, it used to be common for players like GoG to think: 'he would check most one pair hands with showdown value, and bet his strongest hands and his bluffs... a lot of draws missed so he is often bluffing, i call with most pairs'. People have picked up on this line of thought and exploiting it by potting much wider ranges on these rivers, including their marginal one pair hands on. Good players, like villain and hero are, have also adapted to this line of thought, what changes the meaning of the action on the river yet again - and above all makes it more situation specific.

Will GoG call light, assuming you will be betting this river with all bluffs you couldve been running, rendering the river irrelevant? Or will he fold because bluffing the ace on the river has become too transparent to be a real option for you? Or will he consider check/raising as a bluff because he knows you are betting a wide part of your range, much of which he doesnt beat but you can't call a c/r with?

Obviously a check is the safe option, but it is also admitting that your opponent outplayed you (which in itself is no reason not to check: winning the pot is your consolation): he saw through your (semi)bluff by calling your turnbet while you didnt get additional value out of hitting your few outs.

Re: 100-200 Live: Thin River Value Bet?
 

sorry.. that's my b

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Not so thin..this is a black and white protect your bluffs value bet. If you'd ever fire off 20k with QJs here then you need to bet the ace. You start checking back top pair in a spot like this and you'll have a tough time firing 2 or 3 barrels in the future against observant opponents. You are likely ahead, and you gain a ton of value if he doesn't call, too, for obvious reasons. Be interested to hear what he had(and who he was for that matter).

James

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Nice post. Could you explain what the obv value of him not calling would be, besides not having to show down your hand.

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becaus if villain sees you checky checky two pairy he thinks next time when you take this line and bet river that you have nutsy nutsy or bluffy bluffy cause you no betty two pairy

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Hero doesn't have two pair, he has top pair bottom kicker

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hm yeah i got confused by the JooWishes post and my post was drivel anyway

When i read OP i wasn't sure about the bet, when I read JooWishes summare (who said the board was K32QA) I was obv pretty sure about a bet.

As played in OP, pot is huge by the river and even though our flop/turn combo may look bluffy (which obv makes the float not so great), betting the ace does look kinda strong, even though there are a ton of draws that missed. If we'd bet it, i'd bet strongly though, exactly for the reasons James282 mentioned. We may get called by worse which will make up for our failed attempt to bluff on earlier streets and our future river bets will be much harder to read. I'd fold to a check/raise.

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