PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

This was posted on P5s and I tried to help the OP out but some [censored] morons degenerated it into a name calling battle so I thought it was an interesting hand to post on here and get some real discussion going...The question is CALL or RAISE?? There were actually people who were saying FOLD here...

Seat 1: 2880 in chips
Seat 2: 2140 in chips
Seat 3: 2680 in chips
Seat 4: 2660 in chips
Seat 5: 2920 in chips
Seat 6: 2850 in chips
Seat 7: 2100 in chips
Seat 8: 5170 in chips
Seat 9: 3600 in chips
Seat 2: posts small blind 10
Seat 3: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Seat 1 [Kh Qc 2d Ah]
Seat 4: calls 20
Seat 5: calls 20
Seat 6: folds
Seat 7: calls 20
Seat 8: folds
Seat 9: raises 60 to 80
Seat 1: calls 80
Seat 2: folds
Seat 3: calls 60
Seat 4: calls 60
Seat 5: calls 60
Seat 6: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [7h Kd 8c]
Seat 3: checks
Seat 4: checks
Seat 5: checks
Seat 7: bets 490
Seat 9: calls 490
Seat 1: Call or pot???

I'll post my thoughts tomorrow...

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

Well you have to look at this based on the time of the hand. It is obviously very early judging by stack size, so the raise isn't going to get anyone to fold most likely, so you have to judge how competent seat 9. If seat 9 is competent, then he probably has AA, so you want to call and hope that all the other bad low draws will call so that you can pick up half of a big pot. If seat 9 is sucky then you might want to go ahead and repot.

I would call at this stage, but if this were later I would obviously throw my chips in as fast as possible, with the expection of getting heads up against the PFR who would be raising lower value hands at that stage, to be really honest if I thought seat 9 might be a donk then I would flip a coin to see whether or not to raise or call.

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

I like a call. This allows us to fold if the turn is really bad for us, and might pull in some more callers to give our nut low draw better odds. Repotting also effectively throws away the advantage we have of having position. I think about 2/3 of the deck allows us to continue on the turn (all the remaining A/K/Q, plus the sixteen cards that give us the nut low, and a couple of other hearts that give us the NFD).
For what it's worth, I don't think a fold is out of the question. HU of course our hand is a monster, but with this many callers preflop and two who caught a piece of the flop we're not necessarily in great shape here. No protection for our low and our high needs to improve for us to be good on that side.

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

See I wouldn't read seat 9 for AA, I would figure if seat 9 has AA with any wheel card he raises here trying to isolate the bettor...If I have AA here I don't want to play a multiway pot, I want to isolate and try to scoop hi/low...

I read the flop bettor as having either a set or two pair, not a low and the preflop raisor as having some sort of A2 that may or may not be naked...Against the range of hands that the preflop bettor has and against the preflop raisors range of hands I think a raise is in order here...Now with that being said I dont think that it is going to get either of them to fold...But I think that the OP has the requisite 33% equity right now in order to continue with this hand and if he can get the preflop raisor to fold to this raise 1 outta 100 times it is +EV for him to raise...

I think the only things you really have to worry about are:
1. Somebody slowplayed a set behind you and reraises all in and the other 2 guys who already put chips in the pot don't fold.
2. The preflop raisor has A256...

Other than that I think a raise here is the play...I'll post results later on today...

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

I just think that these tourneys are a lot easier to play if you are able to chip up early...I am willing to gamble early in order to accumulate chips so that in the middle stages of a tourney I can take a coinflip or the worst of a 55:45 to 60:40 hand against a short stack and if I lose I won't be crippled...

An example...I called a pot sized bet with 2345 on a flop of A7T in position, as did another person so we were 3 way headed to the turn...Turn peeled off a 6 and I called another pot sized bet which got the pot HU to the river...The river peeled off a Broadway card and the guy who was betting the whole way checked to me...I fired out pot and he mucked calling me a "donk"...But in playing it like that I was able to add almost 50% to my stack early on...Would I call this flop in a cash game?? Most likely not, but in a tourney I'll gamble a little and see if I can drag a pot if the initial bettor slows down because I know a good portion of my opponents are weak-tight and will muck without the nuts...I do risk being quartered but its a risk I'm willing to take...

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

This looks like a spot where you are predestined to get quartered alot. Just look how many people called.

I assume that at least one person has A2 in their hand and when it comes to high hands something like 654 or 88 is very likely to be out there and is going nowhere. I know the game plays loose preflop in this, but cmon the whole deck is out.

So your chance of winning hi is very miserable and for low its about 40% (hiting and not geting counterfeited).

So just dump it (in limit i call of course).
Fold.
Fold.

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

This is the definition of a trap hand. The guy who is betting most likely has some sort of set because even if he is stupid he isnt that stupid. Most players even the most horrible ones assume AA when someone raises. If seat 7 is betting out in this spot its usually a set. He knows seat 9 has aces and he is saying, I can beat that and I dont want any more cards. Seat 9 might have A2, but he might not. There is a possibility that he got stubborn with AA4 or even AA5 because he has aces and most players have a hard time laying that down. I would probably call and take a turn, but I would expect the raiser to have something like A24X and the bettor to have something like 88XX or KKXX. If you raise here you are just burning chips. Any hand that will get out with your raise you would have probably wanted in. You dont want something like KQ23 or something along those lines to go and that is the only type of hand that would fold to a reraise here. KK, 88 and 77 are going nowhere and A2 is going nowhere and the betting indicates both of those hands are out there so why would you reraise?

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

Jorge, I think you are wildly overestimating the level of play in these tournaments...

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

Its not about the players but the random distrubution of cards. One pair isnt the nuts 6-way at least most of the time.

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

I'm gonna respond like a P5 moron, and defend the fold. Even though I probably don't have the will power to fold here:

1) We are behind on the high.
2) We have nut low draw, but no counterfeit protection.
3) The action does not close with us.
4) Potting this will probably not drive out any other A2, and any other A2 may have counterfeit protection.
5) Our backdoor draws for high are weak.

I don't hate a flat call, but I do hate a repot.

BTW: What was the buy-in on this tourney, and was this STT or MTT? Both of these affect the right decision.

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

$22 MTT

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

Here are the results...

The flop bettor had 8752
The preflop raisor had A842

The OP had 41% equity in the pot...I think this all comes down to trying to figure if the original bettor on the flop has a set...If he doesn't have a set I think raising the flop is the correct play...

I don't think calling is a bad play, but I think potting here might be a better play to accumulate chips early in the tourney...

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

I agree, but as I stated earlier you really need to have tried to build an idea of how these two opponents play to make a solid decision on this one, obviously if you head seen flop bettor make a move like this already then he would be a easy repot.

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

If he doesn't have a set I think raising the flop is the correct play...

Yes, but since a set leaves you in pretty bad shape (20% equity) the odds of a set don't have to be that high to make pushing here bad. Anyway flop bettor only needs to have AK7x/AK8x to drop your equity to 30%. If you assume his range is any two pair or a set (and we assume the preflop raiser has A2Wx, which is reasonable and turns out to have been correct), then he has to have specifically bottom two pair for you to be significantly ahead.
There are a lot of opponent hands that seem to leave you with decent-but-not-great equity (like mid 30s): 5678, 789T, K832 and so on.
Anyway, I just don't like pushing here because the equity edge against opponent range doesn't look that high to me, and we're not acting to minimize our chance of elimination. There are enough turn cards we should like that calling seems preferable, and only 15 or so that will make us want to fold (and even then it may get checked to us).

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

I guess my feel for raising here is this: shouldn't we want to put pressure on a naked-A2 to have to call a big bet here?? I know I said the FE here is probably zero (or damn close to it), but don't we want to try to knock out that other A2 thus massively increasing our equity in the hand???

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

[ QUOTE ]
I guess my feel for raising here is this: shouldn't we want to put pressure on a naked-A2 to have to call a big bet here?? I know I said the FE here is probably zero (or damn close to it), but don't we want to try to knock out that other A2 thus massively increasing our equity in the hand???

[/ QUOTE ]

A2 is never folding here unless its a hopeless A2 and the player is pretty good. It would have to be A29Q or something really out of it for high. Most A2 type of hands would have some sort of draw for high, which combined with the nut low makes them call.

[ QUOTE ]
The flop bettor had 8752
The preflop raisor had A842

The OP had 41% equity in the pot...I think this all comes down to trying to figure if the original bettor on the flop has a set...If he doesn't have a set I think raising the flop is the correct play...

I don't think calling is a bad play, but I think potting here might be a better play to accumulate chips early in the tourney...


[/ QUOTE ]

I think it was very lucky that the bettor had bottom two here. It doesnt matter if the players are terrible in these tourneys. Most should be able to tell when they have a good hand. The bettor did. He was saying exactly what I thought with his bet, "I have Aces beat and I dont want any more cards." He happened to have the crappiest hand that could beat aces in this case, but still if he had aces crushed why would your top pair be any good? If you had raised you would be hoping that the low would get there or that somehow you could draw out on him for high, that is if you werent drawing dead for high. Not a great long term strategy.

I know that top pair and nut low look amazing and seem unbeatable, but you said it yourself. The people in tournaments are terrible players who will be in there with anything. A set is not really unusual in omaha. I think calling here with top pair and nut low is the difference between cash games and tournaments. In a cash game I shove this flop all day because I can reload and because people are less likely to be in there with 77 or 88 so I am only thinking about KK. In a tournament though, 77 and 88 are more likely since people are much worse.

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

Interesting take Jorge...Interesting take...I probably would play it just the opposite, calling in a cash game and shoving in a tourney...

I might be looking at this incorrectly but if we believe that the flop bettor has any 2 pair and not a set that we have a lot of cards on the turn that really look good for us...This gets me to thinking that we aren't that far behind any 2 pair so shoving might not be a bad idea...

I guess the logic flaw here is that if almost any card on the turn is gonna be good for us might as well peel and see the action before committing more chips...

I don't see folding here, do you? I think folding is a very weak play on this flop...Now not to say if it went BET-RAISE-RERAISE that I would consider calling, but here when it goes BET-CALL, I can't see folding as being a +EV play...

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

Folding is a bit tight, but not out of the question. Some people dont like getting into trouble this early in the tourney. I wouldnt fold, but its not horrible, just a bit tight for my taste.

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

You are horribly result oriented.

You say there are lots of good cards, wtf??
What cards do you consider being good?
Only a K or Q improves your high and you still lose to a set if one is out there.

I added to the mix someone with JT9x hand and if he calls also your scooping chances are 4-5%. The fact no one had such hand out of 6 people means only that you were very lucky.

If you want to play this hand push of course to make all mid-cards fold and ideally stay only with a weaker A2.
Calling is horrible beacause you let other hands draw cheap for high and almost any card completes them.

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

Good cards: sixteen low cards (3-6 all suits), two kings, three queens, and also (less good but probably still OK to continue with depending on the action) the two remaining aces and the 9 T J of hearts.

push of course to make all mid-cards fold

Again, yes of course if people will fold decent hands then pushing looks great. Only I think the fold equity here (at least against our flop raiser and preflop raiser / flop caller) is vanishingly small. If you want to look for fold equity I think that getting the other nut low draw to fold on the turn (if a high card we like falls) is a better possibility - but of course to do that you have to call on the flop instead of jamming.

I added to the mix someone with JT9x hand ... The fact no one had such hand means only that you were very lucky

Not really. Odds of someone having a particular two card combo (e.g. 9Txx) among all opponents, assuming all these hands get played, is about one half. Which is why the odds of the nut low being out there on any particular board are about 50/50. Once you narrow the range by specifying that one of the remaining cards must be a J, you're looking at about a ten percent chance of 9TJx being out there. Most of the other wraps (78xx) don't drop our equity that much.

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

I cant ever see myself laying that down there, esepically in a low stakes tourny where most players thinking isnt nearly as advanced as you give them credit for. I can see the logic in just calling to conserve chips if u miss and give yourself a chance to survive in the tourny, but i must say i shove there everyday of the week and twice on days ending with "y"

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

I agree that there's no way you can lay it down in a donkament. WSOP maybe, but that's another story.

But consider that everyone else (everyone else with a brain) is thinking the same thing: shove & double up or move on.

[ QUOTE ]
If seat 9 is sucky then you might want to go ahead and repot.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is key IMO: if everyone else has a piece then it's a call. But if you're likely (>30%, perhaps) to be splitting someone else's chips, then it's a push.

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

[ QUOTE ]
Good cards: sixteen low cards (3-6 all suits), two kings, three queens, and also (less good but probably still OK to continue with depending on the action) the two remaining aces and the 9 T J of hearts.

push of course to make all mid-cards fold

Again, yes of course if people will fold decent hands then pushing looks great. Only I think the fold equity here (at least against our flop raiser and preflop raiser / flop caller) is vanishingly small. If you want to look for fold equity I think that getting the other nut low draw to fold on the turn (if a high card we like falls) is a better possibility - but of course to do that you have to call on the flop instead of jamming.

I added to the mix someone with JT9x hand ... The fact no one had such hand means only that you were very lucky

Not really. Odds of someone having a particular two card combo (e.g. 9Txx) among all opponents, assuming all these hands get played, is about one half. Which is why the odds of the nut low being out there on any particular board are about 50/50. Once you narrow the range by specifying that one of the remaining cards must be a J, you're looking at about a ten percent chance of 9TJx being out there. Most of the other wraps (78xx) don't drop our equity that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

3-6 arent good cards because we still need to improve to avoid geting quartered (most of the time, because in the low limits one might play an A3).

I agree with your point that I might have overestimated the chance that the wraps are out there.

The concept call and evaluate is bad, just look at this situations.

Imagine that one villian has a naked A2xx with no-high and other two small pair or a wrap. If we push flop the naked A2 may fold instead of calling and we we stay only with the wrap having the best of it both ways. But if we call and low card falls we get qaurtered.

And any card between 9-J virtually forces us to surrender on turn. I like poting so much more then calling on flop.

But still I believe that given the action one can easily fold as i wrote earlier.

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

he is right,the play is so fishy in the beginning,thats why i would repot and gamble

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

i would repot in tourney and fold in a cash game,lol ,tourney players are 5 times as bad

Re: PLO8 $22 - $5000 GUARANTEED HAND
 

I think anything other than raising is a mistake, you might have the best hand right now.. if you don't, raising might make the best high hand fold, depending on what kind of crap people are playing. And if someone has A2 chasing their low, I want all their chips in the pot.