A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

Lets say your in a multi tourny and 10 left. Now your playing hand for hand and you are 10th in chips. If your like me when in tournys you have both tables open. You notice your aa and notice that someone on the other table is all in and called and has lost. Do you fold aa pf just to get that extra kick in prize call and risk getting sucked out since your gong to be called because lets say you only have 2bb. Any thoughts.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

Dont fold

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

I think there are situations to fold AA pf , but that does not sound like one at all. Especially with you short stacked anyways.
The only reason to fold AA pf would be if there are if the prize money makes big jumps per place...but in most smaller tourneys, the prize for 10th vs 9th isnt a big deal.
If its a big buy-in tourney then the jumps can be worth a fold. Especially if several short stacks are all in already and its likely that 2-3 of them will be eliminated, then I could see folding AA would have some value there.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

this is just general. Should you still not fold knowing that the other player has lost and if you lose you finish 10 instead of 9.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

this isn't even on the bubble? god don't fold.

if the jump in prize money is huge, or if average stack is 100bb while you're fighting for either 2 or 4, fine fold.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

Terrible fold in the situation you describe. There is rarely a jump between 10th and 9th large enough to make the $EV of folding into 9th > than the delta $EV of the CEV of calling.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

If you fold here, you're almost guaranteed to get no higher than 9th.

If you go all in here and get 1-2 callers, more money is in your near future [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] .

Never fold AA there... You could do it in a satellite tournament for sure, but not a regular MTT.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

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If you fold here, you're almost guaranteed to get no higher than 9th.

If you go all in here and get 1-2 callers, more money is in your near future [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] .

Never fold AA there... You could do it in a satellite tournament for sure, but not a regular MTT.

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I agree pretty much here if there are like 5 all ins of 10 players and top 7 make it or something, then I could understand it but otherwise isn't worth it

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

You're 85% against the top 20%. Assume you're called that tight. Without doing the figures, if 10th pays $20 and 9th pays $150, I guess you could fold. Normally, no way. Don't you want to win? I'd hope to get called in four spots, quintuple up and then go on to glory.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

Why are so many people obsessed with finding ways to fold AA preflop? It's likely you'll go your whole life without ever once being in one of these situations, esp if you don't play too many donkaments

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

People do enjoy getting creative with how to fold Aces. I guess it's human nature to love ridiculously painful scenarios - like watching a car-wreck and being unable to look away.

The only one I've heard that sounds reasonable is if you're middle/slightly lower part of the pack, on the bubble, and everyone gets the same payout. Example, if 11 remain, the top 10 win trips to the WSOP, you're 7th in chips with 13 BB, and last place (11th) has 3 BB left. Something like that anyway.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

This same question seems to pop up every 2 months or so. ><

*Shoots self*

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

The only way I would fold AA in that spot in a tourney is if im in the top 4 in chips, and someone ahead of me in chips has entered the pot for a reraise, and maybe I wouldnt want to play a huge pot when I can coast to 4th or 5th. But even then, I'm not sure. I guess im not good enough of a tourney player to fold AA. Is this why I can't seem to win one? =p

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

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The only way I would fold AA in that spot in a tourney is if im in the top 4 in chips, and someone ahead of me in chips has entered the pot for a reraise, and maybe I wouldnt want to play a huge pot when I can coast to 4th or 5th. But even then, I'm not sure. I guess im not good enough of a tourney player to fold AA. Is this why I can't seem to win one? =p

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If you ever fold AA in the scenario you propose, you should never play poker again.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

You'd have to beat me over the head and pry the cards from my cold dead hands to get me to lay down AA PF

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

I have folded AA PF.

Here is the scenario:
Live Satelite to $2500 buy-in. $55 buyin/61 players.
Payouts:
1st: $2500 seat
2nd: $550
3rd: Nothing

3 players remain

Button: $70,000
SB: %90,000
Hero: $80,000

Blinds $2000/$4000 No Ante

Button: Moves All-in
SB: Calls
Hero: Folds

It took me about 3 mins or so to make the decision. I'm glad I folded, but not sure if it was right or not.

Button shows 10 10, SB shows AKs.
Board comes 10-J-x-x-Q

I bust literally on the next hand, my KK v. his QQ all-in preflop. He flops 4 to the flush and catches on the river.

So, was the AA fold correct? It worked out obv...but?

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

its almost winner takes it, so I would have called.

Your equity is about 60%*2500$ = 1800$. To make the calculation simpler I assumed you would win it if your Aces held up.
Folding: 1/3*2000+550 = 1200$. Here the same: If you fold you will most likely play heads up with a 2:1 chip disadvantage.

Those calculations aren't precise, but the result should be clear.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

No that's a horrendous fold. You have a very good chance of virtually taking down 1st right there. ATROCIOUS.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

Pokerstove shows that I was 70% to win against actual hands.
I put them both on PPs which puts me 66% to win.

I should note that I definately felt I could beat either player HU, even outstacked 2:1. I remember that the final thought that allowed me to fold was the size of the blinds. With 13 M's, I felt I still had time to outplay whichever opponent I faced. The fact that 3rd payed nothing and 2nd payed 10 buy-ins was obviously also a factor.

If the Aces hold I win the tournament 99% of the time. True. I incorrectly thought that against 2 pocket pairs I would be only 50% to win. I could flip the coin right there to win $2500 or nothing. Or I could let them battle, make the money and take a coinflip to win $2500 or $550. And HU I put myself closer to %75 than a coinflip.

Was this a tough situation for anyone, or is there %100 consensus that Aces have to call there?

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

Absolutely horrendous fold. Close in chip counts with each of you having an effective M of 4.5 or less. Not only do I call with AA, I beat them both into the pot with a lot more hands than that.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

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Absolutely horrendous fold. Close in chip counts with each of you having an effective M of 4.5 or less. Not only do I call with AA, I beat them both into the pot with a lot more hands than that.

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What to you mean by "effective M"? If I had an M of 4.5 I am calling but my M was 13.33

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

You M is 13.33 at a full table. The game is three handed. Multiply yout M by .33 to get your effective M of 3.99.

The logic behind effective M is this. M equals how many orbits your stack covers. But orbits are all not created equal. When the table gets shorthanded, you need to adjust your M downward to reflect the fact that each orbit is fewer hands.

In your example, your M is much smaller than you think.

That being said, even if my M were 40, I'd call with AA. In your situation, I'm calling there with AQ+, TT+

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

I hadn't considered the diminished value of the M. How much value would you place on your ability to win HU? Any? I know a lot of players believe heads up to be a crapshoot. Does it weigh in at all in your mind?

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

Why ever play poker if you can find a reason to fold AA preflop. Play for 1st...not the next spot in money. How can you fold the most +ev preflop spot there is? Im never folding AA preflop...never.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

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The only way I would fold AA in that spot in a tourney is if im in the top 4 in chips, and someone ahead of me in chips has entered the pot for a reraise, and maybe I wouldnt want to play a huge pot when I can coast to 4th or 5th. But even then, I'm not sure. I guess im not good enough of a tourney player to fold AA. Is this why I can't seem to win one? =p

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If you ever fold AA in the scenario you propose, you should never play poker again.

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My thoughts exactly.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

[ QUOTE ]
Live Satelite to $2500 buy-in. $55 buyin/61 players.
Payouts:
1st: $2500 seat
2nd: $550
3rd: Nothing

3 players remain

Button: $70,000
SB: %90,000
Hero: $80,000

Blinds $2000/$4000 No Ante

Button: Moves All-in
SB: Calls
Hero: Folds


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For fun, let's compute how bad folding AA was in your situation, using the Independent Chip Model for estimating finishing probabilities from stack sizes.

For simplicity, let's assume that the SB and button have 50% equity against each other heads up, and each independently have a 1/5 chance to beat you if you get involved, with no ties. Let's assume the seat is worth exactly $2500.

If you fold, you end up with 76,000 chips. 50% of the time, you are heads up with the SB, who has 164,000. Your equity in that situation is $1167.50. 50% of the time, the button "doubles up" to 144000 and the SB is crippled to 20,000. Your equity in that situation is $1068.75. So, the average result from folding is $1118.13.

Let's suppose you call. You have a 64% chance to win, at which point you would have 230,000 and be heads up against the SB who has 10,000. That's worth $2418.75. You have a 20% chance to lose to the SB, and get knocked out. This has some value, since if the button was also knocked out, you get second place. In fact, given that the SB beat AA, the probability that he beat the button, too, is very high; I'd conservatively say 90%, but the end result is not sensitive to this estimate. That means getting knocked out is worth an average of $495.00. Finally, there is the 16% possibility that you win the 20,000 side pot, but the button wins the 210,000 main pot, and the SB is crippled to 10,000. That's worth $531.16. The average result of calling is $1731.99.

Thus, calling is better by about $614, about 11 buy-ins. It's not close. Folding AA was a very bad choice.

If your intuition tells you it was a close decision, your intuition is wrong, and you should fix it so that poker is much less expensive for you.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

This evidence seems pretty damning. I can no longer defend the move. The one thing I didn't consider at all was the possibilty that I lose and take second right there.

Here's a new question to consider. Change one thing about previous situation. Both players have equal stacks, so 100% chance one gets eliminated. And hero is short stack by say 1K.

Now, knowing that you have a 66% chance to win, if you thought there was a 66% chance you could beat either player HU despite being a 2:1 dog in chips. Does it make sense to fold? So basically, would you give up a 66% chance to win $2500 and a 33% chance to win nothing for a 66% chance to win $2500 and a %33 chance to win $550.

Or, since I know someone will quickly point out that using The Independent Chip Model you are 33% chance to win $2500 and 66% to win $550.

That got really confusing, look at it this way: Which dice would you roll?

Dice one:
66% = $2500
33% = 0

Dice two:
33% = $2500
66% = $550

But as I said before, I think the situation where I fold is closer to Dice three:

66% = $2500
33% = $550

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

I just can't imagine folding AA pre-flop under any circumstances. I mean, what the hell? You were even before you sat down. If the entry fee means that much to a player they should quit poker and just get a job. If you are worried about it that much just go all in pre-flop, and you've done the best you can.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

Just another thought. I've read you guys posts, Nate Avenson,Kurn,Son on Mogh, and Pzhon. I sure hope I don't have to play with you guys any time soon, you're too damm good for me. I read Harringtons books and thought he did some heavyweight math but you guys are at another level. Keep up the good work.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

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I just can't imagine folding AA pre-flop under any circumstances.

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This is just stupid talk. It's easy to come up with situations in which you should fold AA. The simplest is something like this: you are playing in a satellite with four equal prizes and five players remain. You have 60,000 chips, everyone else has 10,000. You should fold *everything* including aces in this spot. You should be sitting out and enjoying a nice cold drink. Same story if there are six people, this time you also have 10,000, four spots, three guys all in. You fold your aces without a second thought. Yeah, this spot doesn't come up all that often, but there's no "never" in poker.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

besides folding to qualify in satellites, taking the hypothetical to silly extents, if i was in a tournie with AA in the first hand, and 6 people pushed all in in front of me, I would fold. Of course there would be an argument that you would get such a big lead its worth it, and its totally dependant on the size of tournie, level of players, etc, but if theory I could lay down AA there. Say you are against QQ, J10s, 78s, AKs, then you are only a 43% chance to win. If someone else held AA as well you would be splitting if youre lucky.
Again, I know this is extreme, and the pot odds would be massive, but i think there could be a case for folding here, especially if its a big tournie and really poor players

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

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I hadn't considered the diminished value of the M. How much value would you place on your ability to win HU? Any? I know a lot of players believe heads up to be a crapshoot. Does it weigh in at all in your mind?

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Unless you are both very deep stacked (say 50 big blinds +), the most important factors in HU play are aggression and luck.

The best poker player in the world is less than a 3:2 favorite in a shallow-stack HU situation vs someone who undestands basic HU tourney concepts.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

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besides folding to qualify in satellites, taking the hypothetical to silly extents, if i was in a tournie with AA in the first hand, and 6 people pushed all in in front of me, I would fold.

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You suck.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

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if i was in a tournie with AA in the first hand, and 6 people pushed all in in front of me, I would fold.

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[img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

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besides folding to qualify in satellites, taking the hypothetical to silly extents, if i was in a tournie with AA in the first hand, and 6 people pushed all in in front of me, I would fold.

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You suck.

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No, he doesn't suck. Why risk your tournament on a less than coin flip situation? Sure, he has the higher % over the other 6 "random" hands, but 43% is surely not enough of a % to risk my tournament life on the first hand. Remember, AA is nothing more than a single pair.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

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besides folding to qualify in satellites, taking the hypothetical to silly extents, if i was in a tournie with AA in the first hand, and 6 people pushed all in in front of me, I would fold.

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You suck.

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No, he doesn't suck. Why risk your tournament on a less than coin flip situation? Sure, he has the higher % over the other 6 "random" hands, but 43% is surely not enough of a % to risk my tournament life on the first hand. Remember, AA is nothing more than a single pair.

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This is not BBV, you don't need to make leveling posts. If its not a level, you also suck at poker.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

poker pseudo-intellectualism ftw

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

your chips are short relative to the blinds at this point according to harrington you must go all in. your hand doesnt get any better than this, you have to get your chips in the middle when you have a decent hand here you have the best.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

in response to your highly articulate response drzen ( I hope not a real dr) I like to think that I dont suck...

The nature of the question implies a hypothetical situation rather than something you are likely to actually encounter. If you were in a tournie where the level of player was so weak you had such an edge, and the payoff was so big, why would you want to risk a probable loss of the first hand, when by chucking your hand you are making yourself a big favourite? of course the value of the pot is massive, but the value of patient poker would surely be just as great with less risk involved.

Re: A possible sittuation to fold aa pf
 

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besides folding to qualify in satellites, taking the hypothetical to silly extents, if i was in a tournie with AA in the first hand, and 6 people pushed all in in front of me, I would fold.

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You suck.

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No, he doesn't suck. Why risk your tournament on a less than coin flip situation? Sure, he has the higher % over the other 6 "random" hands, but 43% is surely not enough of a % to risk my tournament life on the first hand. Remember, AA is nothing more than a single pair.

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You suck too.