Is this profitable?
 

I decided to bet every college game off .5 or more of the common line that was available to me.

Anything that was available at four or less books listed here I considered "off". No handicapping the games themselves involved at all.

Example: NC-Greensboro were +6/+6.5 at most places except sportingbetusa.com where it was +7. So I bet it even though I don't know anything at all about either team.

I was going to do this myself, but I might as well save my money and ask you guys.

+EV?

Should I limit it to 1 pt. or more off?

thoughts?

Re: Is this profitable?
 

Blindly doing it I don't see how it is profitable if you are laying -110.

craig

Re: Is this profitable?
 

Find reduced juice, and get at least 1 point and you're probably close to break even. Half a point at -110 will probably still be negative.

Re: Is this profitable?
 

This is something I've been wondering about also. With my local, I can typically get anywhere from 1-3 pts difference on half a dozen games each day. At -110 for all games, should this be profitable to bet regardless of the team?

Re: Is this profitable?
 

If you can get 2 or more points, then I would think it's probably going to be profitable in the long run. 1-1.5 points is probably the break even point, depending on the line (1 point matters more when the line is 2, then when it's 12). I haven't done an in depth analysis, though, these are just the results I would expect an analysis to turn up.

Re: Is this profitable?
 

historically (ie 99-2005), youd need about 1.5 points at
-110 for +EV, if you want to just do this by rote. its doable (marginally), but youd need more than 4 outs, id think...

Re: Is this profitable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
historically (ie 99-2005), youd need about 1.5 points at
-110 for +EV, if you want to just do this by rote. its doable (marginally), but youd need more than 4 outs, id think...

[/ QUOTE ]

What games does this Stat Include? NBA & NCAA Basketball. or one of those? or both? or what?

Re: Is this profitable?
 

fwiw, it went 7-6 tonight.

thanks for the comments, i'll drop it after tonight.

Re: Is this profitable?
 

I'm dropping it as well after getting Oregon St at +17.5, most painful second half of my life.

Re: Is this profitable?
 

I've never seen what I'm about to write posted on 2+2. If it's common knowledge, I apologize.

There are a lot of people in this world, who make a lot of money, by doing the following:

1. Subscribe to donbest.com. This will get you real-time line updates from dozens of major sportsbooks, offshore and in Las Vegas (but no one who does this cares about Las Vegas). When I say, "real time", I mean, "up to the second". I think this currently goes for about $600/mo.

2. Open accounts at as many of these donbest-listed books as you can afford.

3. Sit at your computer. Have several browser windows open. Multiple monitors would be a good idea. In these many windows, you'll be logged into all your sportsbook accounts, and you donbest will always be visible (with the sound on--it "beeps" when a line changes somewhere, and the new line is highlighted).

4. Wait for the beeping to go crazy. When this happens, it's telling you that a ton of money is being bet all at once. When this happens, start scrolling through your donbest, looking for the game in question. It will be easy to find. The numbers will highlighted all the way across the screen. This is called "steam". A big syndicate (most likely Billy Walters, or maybe some other group of wiseguys) is making a play. They have to attack all the books simultaneously, else the books will move the line "on air" (without taking a bet). Books don't like giving -2½ when the line should be -3.

5. OK, now here's the hard part. You need to get down on this "hot" team BEFORE THE LINE MOVES. It was -2½ all day long, and no one paid any attention to this game. Then the order came down, and all the beards started grabbing all the -2½ they could get. The books who took the bet went to -3. Other books, watching the same donbest screen, and not wanting to get picked off by the steam-chasers for a free half-point, also went to -3.

But the steam chasers are relentless. Some, who weren't quick enough on the mouse to get -2½, decide they want on the same side as Billy Walters, and they lay the -3. Enough of this action can drive the line to -3½.

6. The game closes at -3½, and we all know, the closing line is the strongest. But we're quick little buggars, and we snatched up plenty of -2½. We laid -110 (or less, if we're at reduced juice books), and we got a free full point.

IMO, blindly betting teams at -110 is profitable if you get a full point most of the time, and at least a half-point all of the time.

7. Hope you like baseball, because the steam can REALLY move a price in that sport. Betting "the moves" can get you 15-20 cents per play. Against a dime-line, that seems huge to me.

I booked in Vegas for close to ten years, and never heard of any of this. Then I got an offer to come offshore, where I learned about this strategy the hard way.

I didn't know if the players doing this had an edge or not. But it didn't take long to see the fastest players were making a ton of money off of us.

One college football Saturday, the New Mexico game goes black on the donbest screen (NM is getting steamed). My phone rings. Before I pick it up, I already know exactly who it is. It's our biggest steam chaser, who has been instructed that he has to place all bets by phone, with a supervisor, because he was "beating us to the moves" more than we could handle, by betting on the website and with the phone clerks. Quite simply, he was finding these games on his donbest screen and betting them, faster than we could find them and adjust them. That's not because we were lazy; it's because we were busy trying to run a sportsbook on a Saturday afternoon in October.

So anyway, my phone rings, and before I pick it up, I know who it is; I know what game he wants to bet; and I know which team he wants.

ME: Sports.

HIM: Game 287, New Mexico, what's your line on that?

ME: New Mexico +7.

HIM: OK, give me New Mexico for--what's my limit there, five dimes?

ME: I'll tell you what. I'll give you this bet at even money--no juice--if you can name two players on the New Mexico team.

HIM: Just give me New Mexico for five dimes, smart guy.

My boss welcomed this action, convinced that nothing could overcome his -110 edge. I couldn't persuade him otherwise.

That book closed its doors inside of one year. Those guys buried us.

Re: Is this profitable?
 

Great story. Those were the plays that Slacker used to post here, iirc (?). Well after the lines had already been adjusted, of course.

I have nowhere near the bankroll to pay for donbest and have enough to bet to make up for the $600 a month and be profitable enough to spend all that time on it.

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, blindly betting teams at -110 is profitable if you get a full point most of the time, and at least a half-point all of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting. I might just track this for awhile with pen and paper (i.e. not betting it) and see what happens.

I could post the plays I come up with for you guys if there was enough interest.

Re: Is this profitable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
historically (ie 99-2005), youd need about 1.5 points at
-110 for +EV, if you want to just do this by rote. its doable (marginally), but youd need more than 4 outs, id think...

[/ QUOTE ]

1 point is plenty. Half a point is slightly +EV at reduced juice.

Re: Is this profitable?
 

youtalkfunny,

Thanks for the story and the insight. Very interesting and entertaining.

Re: Is this profitable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I booked in Vegas for close to ten years, and never heard of any of this. Then I got an offer to come offshore, where I learned about this strategy the hard way.


[/ QUOTE ]

What do you do now? Still work at a book?

Re: Is this profitable?
 

Haven't booked since I left Curacao in '02. Been in Mississippi since, dealing poker until a year ago, when I began to play poker fulltime.

I'm currently looking to get back into dealing fulltime. I'll play poker and bet sports as a part-time job, (the only things I can win at betting sports is halftimes, props, and my friend's NASCAR picks).

Re: Is this profitable?
 

this is amazing... now I know what I want to do for my future career

Re: Is this profitable?
 

youtalkfunny:

Okay, thanks. Very interesting story!

Re: Is this profitable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is amazing... now I know what I want to do for my future career

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I ought to warn you of the downside. I didn't mention any of this in the long post, because, well, it was becoming an awfully long post.

1. You need a six- or seven-figure BR.

2. You're not the only guy out there clocking the donbest screen. There are dozens, if not hundreds, of other guys in this race to the new number. You're not just racing the bookies, you're racing the other steam chasers, as well.

3. Say goodbye to bonuses. Many books won't give bonuses to steam chasers. "We can get all the steam action we want for free. Why should we pay you for it?" Other books will boot you altogether.

4. If you start winning too much, the books give you this treatment: "No more picking us off on the website. If you want to bet more than $500 on something, you place your bets with us by telephone."

The first time the db screen lights up, you hit speed-dial, and get a clerk, who asks for your account number and password. As soon as he types that in, his computer screen turns red with an urgent message: "NOTIFY SUPERVISOR". Before he does anything else, you can hear him cover the receiver, and alert the nearby supervisor that YOU are on the phone.

Now you ask for the line on the New Mexico game. You can see they're +7 on the book's website, that's why you called.

While you're doing that, the supervisor is scouring his donbest screen, trying to figure out which game triggered your call. He finds it, just as the clerk is asking him, "He wants to know the line on the New Mexico game."

You refresh your screen. You can see this book still has +7, while everyone else in the world has moved to +6.

"Tell him it's six," you hear in the background. The clerk informs you that the line on New Mexico is +6.

You refresh again. Finally, their site shows a +6. "Pass," you tell the clerk.

You don't like it? Well, says the book, you don't have to bet with us, if you don't like it. How do you want your money, Neteller?

5. (You guys are gonna love this one.) Remember my previous example, the game where BW laid 2½, and the line went to -3½? BW's no fool, he knows his opinion moves lines drastically. So how can he take advantage of this knowledge?

You're sitting at your donbest screen. It starts chirping like a Geiger Counter. You see some mundane team getting steamed from -2½ to -3½. You grab what you can. Like a Kansas tornado, the world went from calm to frenzy to calm in about a minute. The numbers stop moving, the highlighted numbers return to normal. You take a deep breath and relax.

BEEPBEEPBEEPBEEPBEEPBEEPBEEPBEEP!

Same game; OTHER TEAM! +3½, +3, +2½. BW FAKED YOU OUT! His guys took a small nibble on -2½. The bookmakers, knowing where the bet is coming from, overreact. The steam chasers overreact. All this overreaction drives the number up a full point--and THEN BW starts to scorch the earth with limit bets. He liked them at +2½, but with a little manipulation, he was able to get +3 and even +3½, for peanuts (the small bets he made on the fav to start this ruse).

Re: Is this profitable?
 

therover's question referred to ncaa hoops, as did my answer.

Re: Is this profitable?
 

this is wonderful, but i fear that some may get this confused and think that its the 1 point which leads to the profitability of this strategy, where in reality it is the combined equity from the point AND from being on the 'right side' (ie the syndicate's side) of the game. in essence, youre getting free picks (well, it really costs 600/month, i guess...) from those few people (the syndicates) who actually make money, and then betting those picks.

Re: Is this profitable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is wonderful, but i fear that some may get this confused and think that its the 1 point which leads to the profitability of this strategy, where in reality it is the combined equity from the point AND from being on the 'right side' (ie the syndicate's side) of the game. in essence, youre getting free picks (well, it really costs 600/month, i guess...) from those few people (the syndicates) who actually make money, and then betting those picks.

[/ QUOTE ]

1 point without any additional information is enough in either the NBA or CBB. However, it is usually the case that the extra point is on the "right" side. This increases the expectation a bit - but the point alone is good enough is good enough to warrant betting that side.