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-   -   I bragged I made the right play, but was it? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=447226)

Howard Beale 07-09-2007 11:53 PM

I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
CAZ 20 playing extra loose and loony with a bunch of, well never mind. I won't bother with player descriptions. Everybody was Kung Fu Fighting.

Couple limpers, MP 2-bets, bunch of callers, SB (ok, she's more solid than the rest of them) 3-bets with what can only be Aces or Kings for sure and I call the 2 more w/ 10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in what will be an 8 handed pot.

Flop: 10[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, I raise.

Good, Bad, Ugly?

Six_of_One 07-10-2007 12:09 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
This only seems good if your raise has a real chance of cleaning up some of your outs. Once the pot is that big, it seems that anyone who would call one bet will call two also...certainly no pair/gutshot/overcards/Ace of spades will fold, assuming the players are bad like the Commerce kind of bad that I'm used to.

I would just call.

Bad Lobster 07-10-2007 12:36 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 

Au contraire, if he's getting 7 to 1 on his money then every additional dollar bet is +EV as long as he has more than a 1/8 chance of winning.

Maliant 07-10-2007 12:51 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
Call. Not sure sense bloating pot w/ marginal hand at this point.

mongidig 07-10-2007 01:09 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
you think SB has KK or AA for sure. SB confirms this by betting out into 7 other players, The pot is huge meaning that neither loonies nor thinking players are going to fold any piece of the flop or less to your raise and it is almost certain to get reraised by someone else or SB for sure.

What are you trying to accomplish with your raise?

This appears to be an easy call unless I am missing something.

Clarkmeister 07-10-2007 01:14 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
I think it's fine.

mongidig 07-10-2007 01:16 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

arh1 07-10-2007 01:24 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
I thinks it's good. Sounds like you'll be in for a wild ride on this hand, so might as well raise now just in case some of them are willing to fold. You're gonna have odds to see the turn whether you raise now or have to call a raise when in comes back to you, so take the aggressive option.

Maliant 07-10-2007 01:32 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
Why do you want them to fold if anything you want more players in because according to you, you are behind at this point.

andyfox 07-10-2007 01:47 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
You think what is fine? Calling two more pre-flop with T-8 against a hand that can only be aces or kings, or raising with a pair of tens against it?

tessarji 07-10-2007 01:54 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
I don't get it either. This raise isn't for value, doesn't clean up outs, probably won't slow down SB, and just seems kinda pointless.

The best that can be said about it is that it probably doesn't mattter since there will probably be ample action on this flop regardless.

Maliant 07-10-2007 01:59 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
Results: Did it accomplish anything?

BigBadBabar 07-10-2007 02:03 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
um call?

Howard Beale 07-10-2007 02:17 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Results: Did it accomplish anything?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not yet.

I raised because for the extra price of one small bet I may get a few players to fold and increase my chances of winning this big pot if I improve. Plus, if it turns out that no one has a flush draw (and who knows if anybody does, large field or not, with this crew) I can represent if a spade comes on the turn if I can get most of them to fold. I have a few backdoor draws to go w/ my pair. I've got at least a call, and good reasons to raise.

mongidig 07-10-2007 02:32 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Results: Did it accomplish anything?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not yet.

I raised because for the extra price of one small bet I may get a few players to fold and increase my chances of winning this big pot if I improve. Plus, if it turns out that no one has a flush draw (and who knows if anybody does, large field or not, with this crew) I can represent if a spade comes on the turn if I can get most of them to fold. I have a few backdoor draws to go w/ my pair. I've got at least a call, and good reasons to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

But it may not be just one small bet since the SB will probably 3 bet here most of the time unless you have a specific read that she won't.

I do think that your raise might get some people out who may think that they may get stuck in a raising war between you and SB.

I would still call, see what happens behind you, hopefully improve on the turn, and be able to raise the SB and really charge the others.

drbk2 07-10-2007 02:57 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Results: Did it accomplish anything?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not yet.

I raised because for the extra price of one small bet I may get a few players to fold and increase my chances of winning this big pot if I improve. Plus, if it turns out that no one has a flush draw (and who knows if anybody does, large field or not, with this crew) I can represent if a spade comes on the turn if I can get most of them to fold. I have a few backdoor draws to go w/ my pair. I've got at least a call, and good reasons to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the call preflop if she can only have AA or KK.

Also, if she is anywhere close to being competant, your raise might clear everyone else out, but you are getting 3 bet for sure. So pretty much what you are doing is helping her clear the field with her hand but reducing your implied odds if you hit your hand.

Another thing. What good does representing a flush do for you? No one in that game will fold AA postflop ever, and you know that probably better than anyone else in this forum.

Maliant 07-10-2007 03:06 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
Hmm I am nitty and still don't mind call pre-flop... This pot is HUGE and you are going to get paid a lot if you hit.

arh1 07-10-2007 05:56 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the call preflop if she can only have AA or KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot has gotten too big to not play a hand like T8s that can make a big hand and take down a pot this size.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if she is anywhere close to being competant, your raise might clear everyone else out, but you are getting 3 bet for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like a good deal.

[ QUOTE ]
So pretty much what you are doing is helping her clear the field with her hand but reducing your implied odds if you hit your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

We would both benefit from clearing the field. Our chances of winning improve greatly once we get heads up. Once the pot gets this big, we shouldn't be concerned with preserving our implied odds. We should be trying to take it down as soon as possible.

Maliant 07-10-2007 06:52 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
I don't think you benifet from clearing the field at all.

Entity 07-10-2007 09:51 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
I'd definitely fold preflop because your relative position blows.

Postflop, I don't like it but I haven't done the math yet. I think it might be ok in a freeze the field sort of way but your hand is actually really weak here and I'm not sure if, as much as I hate saying this, calling is necessary here (consequently diminishing the value of raising).

This is probably a moment where online, I'd raise and pray, but I haven't played in a situation like this online in a long time (and I'd fold preflop here). Were I somehow in this spot and I didn't know that one player had AA/KK, then the raise becomes a lot more tenable, but now with me drawing on a twospade board, I actually think mucking might be the most viable option. Blah blah blah, pot is big and all, and I know all that, but you've already stated you're drawing to ~6 outs subject to redraws when you're ahead of SB, but you have a whole field to contend with here on a pretty draw-friendly board, which diminishes your equity pretty significantly.

Yeah, the more I write about it, the more I think a fold is the play. But I still think it's one street too late. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Allin you could pretty easily call the 2 in the huge pot because your equity isn't that horrible vs. the field, but given your relative position you just turn the whole hand into a reverse implied odds clusterfuck raise and pray and end up spewing on multiple streets just to hope to come out alive with the best hand.

PS - It's live. Look left and get some sort of read when the flop comes out, because SB is always betting based on your read and you really ought to know how many people are really interested, semi-interested, or generally disinterested in this particular flop.

Rob

vmacosta 07-10-2007 10:20 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
wow entity i can't imagine folding this flop--bd draws alone would force me to make crying calls of every raise.

im probably way too loose in these situations though cuz I'd call preflop and feel great about it.

edit: damn i posted semi blind (only read entity's reply and OP) and missed the assumption that SB has AA/KK. Guess that changes everything. I don't like that assumption though--in today's games this player is extremely rare.

Howard Beale 07-10-2007 10:27 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Results: Did it accomplish anything?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not yet.

I raised because for the extra price of one small bet I may get a few players to fold and increase my chances of winning this big pot if I improve. Plus, if it turns out that no one has a flush draw (and who knows if anybody does, large field or not, with this crew) I can represent if a spade comes on the turn if I can get most of them to fold. I have a few backdoor draws to go w/ my pair. I've got at least a call, and good reasons to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the call preflop if she can only have AA or KK.

Also, if she is anywhere close to being competant, your raise might clear everyone else out, but you are getting 3 bet for sure. So pretty much what you are doing is helping her clear the field with her hand but reducing your implied odds if you hit your hand.

Another thing. What good does representing a flush do for you? No one in that game will fold AA postflop ever, and you know that probably better than anyone else in this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would've been helpful to spend a bit of time on player descriptions. SB and I are long time friends but she is petrified of me. She's decent enough to be a winner in the game but makes mistakes galore. I've had her leave the game when I sit down. I have a decent chance of manipulating her. Secondly, the table was full of 'bleeders'. If I hit a hand they are paying allllll the way. The only player in this hand with a big pair is SB. Somebody else could've flopped 2 pair or a set or anything else they wouldn't fold but I can't know that and besides trying to clear the field and get out the weaker hands and those inclined to try for runners I get better info on where I'm at for what I think is a small price given the size of the pot. The pot's big and I'm not thinking (should I be, at this point?) about implied odds and wanted to do that which gave me the best chance to win the thing.

Anywhere, here's what happened. I'll put it far down the page for those who don't want to know:












After I raised everyone folded to the button (I had him on my 'plays decent list') who called and I'm thinking he's got the draw. SB just called.

Turn:

10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB bets (tyvm) I raise, button calls (that's the flush draw for sure, right? Right? Right?!!!!!) and SB calls.

River:

Blank. SB checks, I bet, Button calls (uh-oh), SB flashes her AA and folds, I say I've got a 10, Button asks 'What's your kicker?' and wins w/ the Q-10o. I puke.

My flop raise was intended to fold that kind of hand. He's got to know he was up against a big pair, the board's 2-suited w/ 2 straight cards and there's a raise and he called w/ Q-10o. I take him off my 'plays decent list' but leave myself on it due to ego reasons.

Edit to add:

I'm having my house remodeled. The crew will be here in an hour. I've got to unhook the computer now and will be gone for a few days. See you all in a bit.

JeffO 07-10-2007 10:38 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
Preflop I like your call and your hand in a multiway pot, though I don't like your relative position to the PF 3 better.

Post flop I don't like for the reason already stated by another poster. "So pretty much what you are doing is helping her clear the field with her hand but reducing your implied odds if you hit your hand."

Howard Beale 07-10-2007 10:51 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop I like your call and your hand in a multiway pot, though I don't like your relative position to the PF 3 better.

Post flop I don't like for the reason already stated by another poster. "So pretty much what you are doing is helping her clear the field with her hand but reducing your implied odds if you hit your hand."

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, dear. You know what you're talking about and must be listened to (please don't take that personally, everybody else. It's just that I've seen JeffO in action which I haven't for most of the rest of you). OTOH, Clarkmeister thought it was ok so there is that. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'd like to talk more about it with you when I see you next if you don't mind and have the time. Thanks for the reply.

Clarkmeister 07-10-2007 11:20 AM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
Raising is fine, but thinking you'll fold a ten is not one of the reasons to raise. There's no chance top pair will ever fold.

Things you want to fold: Bigger diamond draws, gutshot hands that could make a straight or a straight draw if you make two pair, pocket pairs below 10, single spades in case there's not a two card flush draw.

Granted some of these may not fold depending on the player, and many of them should not fold, but it's good to give them a chance to fold. People fold way too much in pots like these, even though it's conventional wisdom that "everyone calls", they really don't once raises start flying.

andyfox 07-10-2007 12:53 PM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
"He's got to know he was up against a big pair"

You're giving him too much credit. Blind was raised and cold-caled and yet bet out on the turn when the top board card paired. It's often a mistake to give your opponents logical thoughts akin to yours.

Besides, you knew you were up against a big pair, and you played on.

Good luck with the remodel. Not a lot of fun while it's happening, but this is a case of being results oriented.

mongidig 07-10-2007 02:28 PM

Re: I bragged I made the right play, but was it?
 
Upon further review I don't think the raise was that bad since I originally thought it had been capped preflop. I think that I would still call though.

I don't think the buttons call was that horrible. True he should know that SB has a big hand but he should also know that you are able to represent stronger hands than you actually have. He may also realize that she slows down when you show aggression, therefore, she may not three bet the flop. Even after his outs are discounted he has just about the odds that he needs to continue and is in good position. Even though you feel strongly that SB has AA or KK I usually leave open a small percentage of time that she has something like AsKs. I don't mind his smooth call here either since many of the would be drawers are gone and a raise is certainly not going to get the BB out. His smooth call may actually by him a free card if a scare card hits the turn assuming he thinks he is behind.


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