NL 50 QQ set value??
 

Villian is 55/4/1. I am 100% sure he has AA here. That said with stack sizes, and reads is this preflop play +ev??


Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
sluggger5x: $90.70
UTG+1: $90.65
CO: $39.35
Button: $47.75
SB: $59.55
BB: $68.30

Pre-flop: (6 players) sluggger5x is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">sluggger5x raises to $2</font>, 4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $9</font>, sluggger5x calls.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($18.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $13</font>, <font color="#cc0000">sluggger5x raises to $30</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises all-in $59.3</font>, sluggger5x calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($136.85, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $136.85)


River: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($136.85, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $136.85)


Results:
Final pot: $136.85

by the way he had aa [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] bleh

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

Can't call for set value, bb doesn't have enough behind

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

looks close to me, $9 to win ~$70? about 7:1, i think call is ok,

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can't call for set value, bb doesn't have enough behind

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain has just enough to call for set value...

$68 in stack +$2=$70 and it's $7 to call...

Very marginal going by the 5 and 10 rule..However others have done math that says you should be getting more like 12 to 1 to call for set value ALONE...

With that being said If I was 100% certain villain had AA I would fold...It's to high variance and only marginally +EV if that...

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

[ QUOTE ]
looks close to me, $9 to win ~$70? about 7:1, i think call is ok,

[/ QUOTE ]

$7 to call so it's 10 to 1

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

You need something like 11-12:1 to call purely for set value, easy fold pf

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

The reason you don't have the odds to call for set value is that you'll sometimes lose to set over set (like actually happened). Also, occasionally the flop will be scary enough (as in KKQ) that Villain won't stack off versus your monster.

If it weren't for those things, then you would almost have the odds to play for set value (the odds against flopping a set are about 7.5 to 1). (Edit: Oops, you would have the odds under those circumstances -- I did the math wrong and thought you were only getting 7:1 even with implied odds -- but the circumstances I just described are imaginary anyway.)

The possibility of losing to set over set hurts more than I used to realize, by the way. The thing is, we're relying on implied odds to play, and that 8.4 percent of the time that Villain spikes a two-outer on the turn or river after we get all our money in on the flop really hurts. It means we're just breaking even on 17 percent of our ~12 percent shot (even if Villain will always stack off, his suckout potential means that our implied odds are not perfect).

And, er, there's probably a better way to express what I just said, but if I'm remembering correctly, if we know we're up against a bigger PP that Villain will stack off with, we still need for the pot size + the remaining effective stacks to be about 11 times bigger than what we actually have to call.

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

How many hands do you have on your opponent for those stats. You don't believe they might have a range wider than just aa? What about the possiblity of ak+, jj+. Your equity against this range is fairly good, especially if you throw in 10s. I wouldn't automatically assume people have a monster hand when there has been a raise and re-raise. Aks is pretty.

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

set value kinda dumb question here, you don't have set value, but unless you are clairavoyant I can't auto put him on KK or AA here, I would call and explode in my pants on flop like you did.

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

I was thinking about this thread while I was driving in my car this morning, and I'm going to have to change my original answer.

If you really knew for certain that Villain had AA and your plan on an AQx flop was to check-fold, then I believe that instead of needing approximately 11:1 (including implied odds) to call, you only need about 9:1. (That 9:1 is not exact but is based on the rough math I was doing in my head while driving.) The 11:1 is based on the idea that you will sometimes flop an underset and not know it and thus get your money in with a one-outer, but that shouldn't apply here.

Assuming, of course, that your read on Villain having exactly AA is 100 percent accurate. If that read might be off (or if it's on but you decide not to trust it anymore on that AQx flop), then that changes things.

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

odds of making a set:

1-[(47/49)*(46/48*(45/47)]=0.1199

so you need 1/.1199=8.3:1 to make it even money.

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

people who are 55/5 frequently DON'T raise or reraise AA but prefer to "trap" with it, so I am, of course, sceptical that you can ever be 100% certain of anything at the poker table.

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

[ QUOTE ]
odds of making a set:

1-[(47/49)*(46/48*(45/47)]=0.1199

so you need 1/.1199=8.3:1 to make it even money.

[/ QUOTE ]

But that does not figure in the times in which you'll hit a set and lose as well as the times that the board will come QQJ and you won't get paid off with villain's stack.

Therefore, it's been shown that the "correct" odds for it to be EV neutral is 11.7:1 to set farm. HTH's!

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

whoopsy.

but when the board comes qqj, the villain almost always has JJ in that spot. ldo....stack-a-donk, no?

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

[ QUOTE ]
looks close to me, $9 to win ~$70? about 7:1, i think call is ok,

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesnt it need to be like 11x not 8x to play for set value?

+EV

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

villian can 3bet w/AK here as well. so can't put him on just AA unless you KNOW he doesn't 3bet AK ever. which is hard

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

How do you distinguish KK from AA in a situation like this? As Nick C said, do you auto fold then any flop where you hit set and an ace or king flops?

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

what?

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

i dont think anyone can ever be that sure...

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

[ QUOTE ]
How do you distinguish KK from AA in a situation like this? As Nick C said, do you auto fold then any flop where you hit set and an ace or king flops?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ideally yes. But easier said than done. Villian is so passive that he wouldnt even 4bet KK pf.

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

"Villian is 55/4/1. I am 100% sure he has AA here. That said with stack sizes, and reads is this preflop play +ev??"



If your read was preflop, this is -EV.

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

[ QUOTE ]
odds of making a set:

1-[(47/49)*(46/48*(45/47)]=0.1199

so you need 1/.1199=8.3:1 to make it even money.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are the true odds of hitting a set?

I've seen 8.3:1 (which I used to think was correct). I've seen 7.5:1 listed on various internet sites. I've also seen other number around....

What's the definitive odds of hitting a set?

Re: NL 50 QQ set value??
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
odds of making a set:

1-[(47/49)*(46/48*(45/47)]=0.1199

so you need 1/.1199=8.3:1 to make it even money.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are the true odds of hitting a set?

I've seen 8.3:1 (which I used to think was correct). I've seen 7.5:1 listed on various internet sites. I've also seen other number around....

What's the definitive odds of hitting a set?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assume that our hand is XX:

P(we hit a set on the flop) = P(flop contains a X)
= 1 - P(flop does not contain a X)
= 1 - (P(first card is not X) * P(second card is not X) * P(third card is not X))
= 1 - (48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48)
~= 11.76%

Thus, the odds of hitting a set on the flop are:

((1 / 0.1176) - 1):1 ~= 7.5:1.