3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
 

Villain has been the massive chip leader since we were in the money and has been playing uber aggressive open raising to just over 3xbb about 66% when it folds to him and I imagine he's doing it with 75-80% of his hands here. He's not afraid to call with a marginal hand if he's getting decent odds, earlier a shortie shoved for 9k and he called with with J4o from bb getting 2.2:1. Payouts are approximately $2800, 3800 and 5800.

Full Tilt Poker (3 handed)
Button 375,666
SB 82,984
HERO 52,850

2500/5000 blinds, 600 ante

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Button raises 16000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero...

Fold I have 47k and m of 5 or so, shove and he folds (he's getting exactly 2:1) i'm at 72k, shove and he calls i'm at 108k or busto.

Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
 

Seems like a really easy shove to me.

Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
 

I think Hero folds. This is a really marginal spot, even against two random cards you're only a marginal favorite and given your description of villain he is absolutely calling your shove. It sucks that you have so few chips, but I think you need to wait until you have a hand that has a decent chance of being ahead.

Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
 

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like a really easy shove to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
 

ez shove

Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
 

Does anyone stop and go here?

Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
 

Looks like a shove too me given what you know about him. If you don't and you have to shove on a more marginal hand I would hate to have him call just because of decent odds with any two.

I'd probably say this would be a shove in pretty much any instance given any player unless for some reason the chip lead is playing super tight which wouldn't make sense.

Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
 

Do we want to if he is calling with really marginal hands if he is given like 2:1 odds on his money?

Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
 

shove it in so fast

Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
 

Do not push.

Pokerstove says you are 52% EV against a top 75% hand and 52.5% against a top 80% hand. So assuming he's calling with his whole range, which I think is pretty fair here, pushing is obv +Chip EV.

However, we only care about Monetary EV:

If you fold stacks are:

Button: 384k
SB: 80k
Hero: 47k

Monetary EV: $3369

If you double up:

Button: 323k
SB: 80k
Hero: 109k

Monetary EV: $3842

So pushing makes your MEV .52*$3842+.48*$2800 = $3341

In other words it is actually -$28 MEV to push. There's no way you should be pushing here unless you think you are an underdog against your opponents and gambling is your best chance of winning. In the later stages of a NLHE tournament Chip EV and MEV cease to coincide because of the payout structure. If everything went to 1st place then all these guys claiming A2o is ahead so push would be right.

Whether the stop and go is right here is more complicated. Personally I would just fold because the stop and go is a pretty transparent play, and A2o plays so badly after the flop with other courses of action. You can't afford to lose the 11k chips which give you a good amount of your preflop fold equity against a guy who's already calling everything at this point.

Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
 

Surely your estimate of $3369 MEV is dependent on the assumption that you wont be folding all of your better than average hands just because the big stack might call with ATC?

Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
 

The MEV estimates are standard chip chop numbers. They assume that all players are equally skilled, and estimate the probability of each place as a function of the chip stacks. You can read about it in Harrington (Vol. 3, I think). Basically, these numbers assume that you are straight up flipping against these guys. The fact is, if you are playing optimally against someone that is effectively open shoving into you &gt; 75% of the time your MEV in the case where you fold and have 47k is much higher than $3369, because you will be finding much better than flip spots for your money. In other words, the -$28 EV is assuming you are equally as good as these guys and if you are better, you should be even more MEV averse to gambling here.

Re: 3 left in FT 22k, marginal spot with A2
 

My problem with your calculation is 2 things, neither of which have anything to do with the math (I admit I didn't really look at the math I'm just assuming it's correct.) First, SB isn't gonna get crazy with us being so short, so he's gonna either get it in with a good hand, or wait for us to double or bust. Therefore, we're gonna have to get it in at some point, and we will completely blind off in 15 hands. Obviously, if we don't do something in the next few then when we do double it won't matter much. Also, if we double here we now have a 22 BB stack. I don't know about you, but I'm usually one of the better players in tournaments I play. As the final table progresses I usually have more and more of an advantage over people who fail to adjust properly (I play small donkaments, they're really bad.) With our current stack, I just have one move, all-in. If we can double here then instead of just one move, all of the sudden most of our arsenal of poker skills becomes available. Anyway, my long winded point is that I think, for me at least, the monetary EV of doubling here is much greater than just the chip distribution of the prize pool.