WSOP PLO8 hand
 

WSOP Event #42 $1500 PLO8 -- Level 10 -- Blinds 800/1600
There were 8 or 9 tables left, and 7 tables paid.

I am dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the BB, unsuited. Action folds around to SB who raises to 4500. SB has been playing tight-solid and has been working a line about how he's really a limit holdem player who entered the event out of boredom. I'm not really buying it, but he is playing starting quality hands.

Anyway:

Villain (SB) 13000 in chips -- raises to 4500
Hero (BB) 30000 in chips -- calls 4500

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain -- moves all-in
Hero ...

[I worked it out in my mind on the spot and figured that I was a 60/40 dog at worst against his range of hands and often times am ahead. I dismissed the idea that he flopped a set. Twodimes says that I was 38% against a FD/LD. So do you call? Also, do you reraise preflop or call with position?]

Re: WSOP PLO8 hand
 

HU with position and an unsuited Ace I probably just peel and see...HOWEVER in this spot, I think the villian is too short not to put him all in...If you just call and see a flop there is 9000 in the pot and he only has 8500 behind...
You call and see a flop he is gonna pretty much autopush on any flop and are you ever going to be more than a 2:1 dog on any flop? MOST LIKELY, no, there are situations but MOST flops you'll be less than a 2:1 dog (or a favorite)...

With the way the hand played out, mathematically it is a correct call...However it's also gonna be hella high variance because I'm pretty sure we can read this guy for A2xx with spades, probably A high spades...

Fold now you have 25.5K left, call and lose you have 17K left, call and hold you have 43K, call and chop you have 30K again...Looking at the worst case scenario: Is there really a difference between 25.5K and 17K?? That would depend on table dynamics, could you steal your way back up to 25.5K from 17K? That I don't know...

Also are you playing to win or playing to cash...If you are playing to cash I would say muck it quickly...

Re: WSOP PLO8 hand
 

SB is probably stealing, I would put him all-in preflop without a 2nd thought.

Re: WSOP PLO8 hand
 

reraise preflop

Re: WSOP PLO8 hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
reraise preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

what the [censored] no, this hand is mediocre at best, not even suited

Re: WSOP PLO8 hand
 

FWIW, I was playing to win (top 3). I was playing well, and if I were to catch a run of cards it was within reach. I half expected the field to be better players or somehow intimidating. They weren't, and they didn't. (2p2ers OWN PLO8. Although I am a mediocre player by the standards of this board, I am a superior player to most PLO8 lineups I saw live at WSOP. So, many thanks.)

There was no way I was folding this hand. The question preflop is call or push. I reasoned that villain would likely autopush anyway on the flop and with position I wanted the latitude to make a decision. And I thought that my fold equity was nil -- he was pot committed IMO.

This was about the worst sucker flop I could see with this hand. I can get away from this hand if I don't flop 2 pair with the aces. They way the hand played out, I think the money was going in either way. (Right?)

This was my key hand. I started to steal back but it was hard because (for an hour after this hand) when I was in the cutoff Devilfish and Chau Giang were the blinds. I know that this probably shouldn't matter, but they were playing back at everyone. And there was a lot of PFRing going on in front of me by holdem pros -- very little room to make moves.

And I did cash. Playing to cash was never a consideration -- I knew that even if I lost the hand I was highly likely to cash.

Villain did have A2 spades, and he did catch a low spade. It sucked, and it was high variance, and my EV=.382, but I don't see any other way than to call. Can anyone use numbers to criticize this logic?

Re: WSOP PLO8 hand
 

"There was no way I was folding this hand. The question preflop is call or push. I reasoned that villain would likely autopush anyway on the flop and with position I wanted the latitude to make a decision. And I thought that my fold equity was nil -- he was pot committed IMO."

I agree about making decisions and the like in this game, but in my post how many flops are going to come out where it's not going to be mathematically correct not to call him when he goes all-in...Plus what if the flop comes KKJ and he doesn't bluff at the pot? Then you just lost 8500 chips by not pushing preflop...

"Villain did have A2 spades, and he did catch a low spade. It sucked, and it was high variance, and my EV=.382, but I don't see any other way than to call. Can anyone use
numbers to criticize this logic?"

I can't imagine there can be any calcs that don't mathematically justify a call here...Once you call the flop unless it comes down all spades or 345 then you are correct in calling...

Re: WSOP PLO8 hand
 

Thanks again to all of you for your input here and along the way. I am a much better player for having participated here.

The part about this thread I like best is that you all seem to think that my play on the flop was high-variance but mathmatically correct. I have had my doubts about the play, but I think now that I played it right on the flop. The money is secondary to me, although it has been useful to me to say (when asked) that I cashed in my 1st WSOP event. It is always most important to me to make the best decisions I can all the time. So I am comfortable with the decision.

I also like the logic in pushing preflop to eliminate a poor decision on the flop. There are very few flops against his range where I am less than 60/40, and thus no reason not to reraise to create whatever fold equity I can. (Even though in this particular case there really isn't any fold equity.)

My only question with that is whether AA6J unsuited is enough of a hand to justify the reraise. If I apply the raise-or-fold test, and examine all of the circumstances, it would seem that the reraise is a must and that I misplayed it. But the hand does seem a bit junky. What do you think?

Re: WSOP PLO8 hand
 

Its hard to imagine a fold being correct on this flop. If villain is anything other than super weak tight he is probably pushing as little as A2xx and is probably super happy to be pushing something like A2TT or A2Jx (id be thrilled to have as much as A2Jx HU on this flop).

Like others have said, its hard for you to hit a flop on which it will be correct to fold. Given that he made a preflop raise and is able to cont bet all in, is there really a flop where you feel confident that youre worse than 33% vs his range? So the stack sizes are one reason you should put him in preflop.

THe other reason is that you have a hand that plays very well hot/cold, but doesnt play spectacularly post flop (its not one of those hands that you will either hit or miss, and its not likely to give you the nuts or a draw to the nuts).

Re: WSOP PLO8 hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
reraise preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

what the [censored] no, this hand is mediocre at best, not even suited

[/ QUOTE ]

who cares.. you're not a dog to virtually any hand.. the guy is pushing every flop.. just get the chips in. You need something better than AA6 to get a short stack in?

Re: WSOP PLO8 hand
 

Congrats on the cash btw.

I think there is always Fold Equity, even in this situation, it might only happen 1/1000 times but I think it is there. Hehe, if it was online then you would also have that chance that they disconnected there after you push, that happened to some poor sap in MTT yesterday against me.

Re: WSOP PLO8 hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
he is playing starting quality hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have folded your hand pre-flop and waited for a better spot.

Re: WSOP PLO8 hand
 

Those advocating any other than a pre-flop push are either 1) joking 2) wrong. This is really a very simple hand. Pushing pre-flop is the simplest solution. But given you just called pre-flop, calling all-in on the flop is standard. You have at least 33% equity against his range of hands. More than likely you are a slight favorite to around 50/50. Bottom line, you're playing ultra short stacked PLO8. With this structure, big edges pre-flop or on the flop are rare. You're going to have to gamble. So either re-pot pre-flop when you are a slight favorite or take the overlay that is being offered on the flop. Both options are +EV.

Re: WSOP PLO8 hand
 

super-easy reraise preflop. i don't understand why this is being discussed

Re: WSOP PLO8 hand
 

It's being discussed because I wasn't convinced. Obviously, the choices preflop are

1. Reraise.
2. Call.
3. Fold.

If you put the range of SB on a steal to any significant %, then it is an easy reraise. But I did not: SB played super tight, he had enough chips to go at least another orbit without being forced to push, and I only saw him turn over good hands. He didn't "have" to PFR here, and a steal only picks him up a BB -- not much reward for the risk, and he's OOP, and I don't think that he would allow me that on a pure steal.

Given that he was holding A2xx to a high percentage, it looks like a coin flip situation. I am not sure that I want a coin flip at this point in the tourney: as stated above, there may be better spots to push that are still out there. But I have a large chip advantage over SB, and it will hurt but not cripple me to lose a race. Also, there are only so many opportunities I am going to get with the blind pressure as it is. So at the time I thought that folding was out.

If I reraise, I commit myself to a race. Even though I figure the fold equity is less than 1%, it is still a mathematically correct play. It is also the more aggressive play which is always more desirable. But if I do that, I waive my positional advantage. So reraising is optimal but perhaps not exclusively optimal.

The call allowed me the latitude to get away from a 345 flop or other mess. There are very few flops on which I fold, but I wanted that option. I thought it was a given that SB would push on the flop. But it is a very weak play, and I don't think I'd do it again.

It is worth noting that all of the chips were going in anyway -- it's just a matter of when.

In retrospect, folding may have been right as well but that is just too mousey. The race is still +EV whether I get it all in before the flop or after.