so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

I really really wanted to fold but couldn't pull the trigger. anyone else?
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $104
UTG+1: $542.40
CO: $801
Button: $348.90
SB: $464.60
Hero: $400

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $24</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls, CO calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($96, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $75</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $175</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $376</font>

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

Cant se any other hand playing like this. Have you been betting theese kind of spots alot?

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

not in 4way pots like this

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

It hurts but i think you can fold it then. Have you seen him raise marginal out of the blinds in spots like this? Any reads at all?

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

Is pf standard?

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

wtf?! i push + fistpump + profit

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

yea no reads i haven't played with him before... but i figured him for a pretty tight range raising out of the blind like that. I dunno JJ/AK c/f's, AA/KK would lead i would think, and QQ i guess he's c/ring.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

GLmasestro, where do you put villain in terms of hands he would c/r here with?

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

not getting away from bottom set in single-raised pots on boards like this with 100bb is a big leak!

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

No reads = He can have AA/KK/FD/tptk seriously I just cant see why he NEEDS to have QQ to c/r here.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

This is why we got a BR, it's just ridiculous folding here.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

yeah, this is DEFINITLY a laydown you can make with some kind of read.. did you have a feeling beyond logic (like a gut/subconscious feeling that this is a telegraphed qq?) .. the logic is obviously there..

Assuming the SB is rational (an assumption we make without a read) his raising from SB range is tight.. for argument sake lets say 88+ AJo+ KQo+ is a very liberal estimate I think.. so this is obviously never 88-jj so they are gone

AQo
AdKd (I think AJ would lead)
QQ
KK
AA

I think from this list we can reduce KK and AQ 100% of the time because keeping the assumption he is rational, those hands are obviously insane not to lead this, I think this could be AA (since this player is unknown, he could be passive on the flop, or just not lead flops and prefer the c/r) a small portion of the time, I think more frequently this would be AKdd or QQ.. if I had to make up %'s out of the air I would say something like... 15% of the time AA.. 25% AKdd and 60% QQ.. (which his line seems to be telegraphing) and this is also assuming he's a rational opponent (assume you have non-rational opponents drawing REALLY thin here 99% of the time) so what this is basically going to come down to is:
1. My opinion of my opponents level of thinking (rational)
2. Recall (if you can dig in and find this situation/feeling and remember what happened)
3. equity (pot odds vrs his range)
4. GUT feeling (this comes down to you, if you have a sixth sense for poker, I think in this particular senario everything else is insignificant if you have this "gift")

put it all together and make a decision =)

note:
1. I dont necessarily think his range is AA 15% AK 25% QQ 60%, I was just illustrating that using memory and feeling, you can put together a tight range for him, and act accordingly.
2. **important: My "feeling/opinion" here is that he is doing this often enough with non-QQ hands for us to go all in... obviously note the way he played it and adjust in the future, remember this is an easy decision 100 BB deep vrs an unknown, we can just stack off and call it a cooler, but what if we're 200 deep.. 300?

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
wtf?! i push + fistpump + profit

[/ QUOTE ]

stop being results oriented, as everyone else is saying just because he had QQ this once his range is much wider than that

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

normally i don't make these laydowns but when he raised pre i said was excited cause i put him on a big pair and flopping sets=$$$ but when the Q flopped i literally said [censored] then he c/r and i was like [censored] i knew it but shoved anyways.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

but i was wondering if anyone actually lays this down like ever. (for 100BB)

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

nah its just a cooler.. occhazz=////

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

100bb's i stack off unless i have a sick read

which i normally dont

so i stack off and be happy

akd aq i think show up a bit here

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
wtf?! i push + fistpump + profit

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

I wouldn't bet the flop because of the possibility someone might raise AND have a higher set.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

easy stack off, idiots will show up with AA,KK,AQ,AKd etc.

QQ would seem most likely from the way he played it, but is the combinatorally least likely hand, and thus your equity seems to be good versus a balanced range of these hands.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't bet the flop because of the possibility someone might raise AND have a higher set.

[/ QUOTE ]

how do you leave the house in the morning?

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

^^^^ funny

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

I push this 100% of the time. I understand why some people say fold though, this line is QQ a huge portion of the time.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It hurts but i think you can fold it then. Have you seen him raise marginal out of the blinds in spots like this? Any reads at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

omg wtf? stop posting this stuff...there's no way you play poker if you think this is ever ever ever ever a fold

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

PF is pretty horrible if you're afraid of one raise when you DO hit your set. What else was your plan when you called with the 3s? To play it slowly for pot control when you hit your set?

Folding here is terrible imo

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

Nobody ever folds here. It is possible IMO to have such a good read on a tight-arse predictable player that pushing is -EV but even then nobody ever folds. It's just the law and in practise you will hardly ever have such a strong read anyway.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

another great results oriented post, play games that you have a sufficient roll for. Push and if your beat oh well

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

Theres no way i would fold this against a typical player, but as said b4, if villian was a rock and i had a super read on him i might be able to fold it....

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

this is definitely the type of hand you should be analyzing in depth if you want to take your game to another level

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

it looks like QQ a decent % of time. But still you cannot be folding bottom set on draw heavy board.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

you guys are missing the point. Obviously i push this all day and i did... However in this particular instance I had such a strong feeling that he had QQ and was wondering if anyone else ever finds a fold here. Its funny how gut feelings work but they do and there often isn't a rational explanation but i find it tough to make these folds playing online.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

And to those of you who simply take the generic view "I have a set in a raised pot with no straight and no flush i don't fold ever" are making a mistake IMO.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
PF is pretty horrible if you're afraid of one raise when you DO hit your set. What else was your plan when you called with the 3s? To play it slowly for pot control when you hit your set?

Folding here is terrible imo

[/ QUOTE ]

obviously i'm not playing for pot control when i hit my set but i'm calling because of implied odds hoping he has or hits a hand to pay me off(poker101) .. but a paint card makes it more likely for him to hit his set as well.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

what the hell? how does this post get all these responses? are you kidding me?

YOU HAVE A SET, THERE IS A FLUSH DRAW, YOU ARENT DEEP, GET THE MONEY IN

that is like one of the first things you should ever learn

OP, it is not a generic view, it is a fact backed up by millions of hands of results from thousands of players

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
what the hell? how does this post get all these responses? are you kidding me?

YOU HAVE A SET, THERE IS A FLUSH DRAW, YOU ARENT DEEP, GET THE MONEY IN

that is like one of the first things you should ever learn

OP, it is not a generic view, it is a fact backed up by millions of hands of results from thousands of players

[/ QUOTE ]

/end thread

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Cant se any other hand playing like this. Have you been betting theese kind of spots alot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? TONS of people would play AA/KK EXACTLY like this. I am gleefully getting all the money into the center.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

check/fold flop, get prostitute with saved monies.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

If you were good enough to lay this down then you wouldn't be asking us about it.

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

Lol im a noob. Dont fold vs unknown of course i should have written that a fold could be an option vs a predictable nitgrindor

Re: so is it painfully obvious that this guy has QQQ?
 

ewwww worst fold ever even vs. like a 8/6 player lol