$11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG (t2405)
UTG+1 (t2520)
MP1 (t1235)
MP2 (t1825)
MP3 (t2005)
CO (t635)
Button (t1635)
Hero (t1140)
BB (t100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t200</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls t200, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>

The math here is not straigtfoward. If I assume that my push would be called by ONLY the pf raiser, and if I fold the BB will fold pf and MP3 will fold post-flop, then I need to win ~49.2% of the time. Which gives the pf raiser a range of TT+, AJ+ as breakeven.

The math might've been a big waste of time because it doesn't account for the times everyone folds, or the times UTG+1 and MP3 both call.

I'm pulling the hand out of PT, so assume no meaningful reads.

Edit: It's not a minraise, and I'm retarded. Thank you, seke. I'm still not sure about the hand.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ to a minraise pf.
 

That's not a minraise unless the converter is wrong.

Why the hell did you fold this at an $11?

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

i've noticed people bet like this for stupid reasons (aka in this case, trying to get BB to call...) even a 500t reraise to 700t would probably get em to dump it.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ to a minraise pf.
 

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Why the hell did you fold this at an $11?

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I think I explained part of my reasoning in my detailed, mostly well-thought out post. Please elaborate as to why I shouldn't fold this at an $11.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

I would tend to fold this in the 5s and 10s (which I play), for a couple reasons.

First it is early, and you have only 25 in the pot.
Second, if you call 175, you are OOP and any paint on the flop will cause real problems. That is an ugly place to be, and a good reason not to call.
Third, the only option other than folding would be pushing, (a smaller raise will pot commit you) and I would definately give that some thought. Maybe push 20% of the time here if I had seen either player let go of a hand to all in pressure. Unfortunately you may not have much FE, sicne they both have twice your stack. Maybe you could squeeze initial raiser, but more likely both will come along.

So I guess I would be a pussy and let go of the hand.

Todd

Re: $11 - Folded JJ to a minraise pf.
 

M'kay. First off, I think it's push/fold. I personally wouldn't call here, but I don't hate a call and push any mostly favorable flop.

Now, if you push, that's not a trivial call for either guy. Neither of them are particularly deep. They have to call of around half their stacks. But you know what sort of hands people raise with at the $11s. I can't find a fold here at all, I'd need a great read on these 2 villains. I think TT+/AJ+ is a WAY too tight range for the raiser. This is an $11. I'd say 22+, A8s+, KQ, KJ, and maybe some other stuff. For the guy who called the raise, I can't get him much tighter than that. And I think these guys call with a lot of hands you are way ahead of, like 66-TT, AJ, as well as hands you are flipping against like AK/AQ. They won't need QQ-AA to call your push.

You've got a sizeable pot, a hand that is probably the best on the table right now, and some fold equity on the push. I just don't see how you possibly found a fold here at an $11.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

If it's a party 11 speed, I push JJ+/AK any time unless action go crazy(no, berserk,if that's the word) before me. Stars' structure might be slower but it's still a push for your situation. I may over-aggro but like i said I play party speed...

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

Awful fold I think my options go as follows.
1. Push
2. Call and push any low card flop
3. Fold
Folding this is just terrible because without reads the average 11er is raising more than TT, AJ+. Even if your worried about qq-aa you really don't have enough info to fold now because you really need to put him one of those three hands to fold here.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

It isn't terrible at all.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

Call and Push with favorable flop!

Definitely!

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

[ QUOTE ]
It isn't terrible at all.

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I would go so far as to say... standard?

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

[ QUOTE ]
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It isn't terrible at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would go so far as to say... standard?

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I don't think it's terrible, but I also don't think folding JJ here is standard in an $11.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

I dunno, honestly it's very close (between push/fold) that's all, and it certainly isn't going to hurt your $EV very much folding here, if at all.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

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First it is early, and you have only 25 in the pot.

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That is completely irrelevant. It is the size of the pot that matters and not how much you personally contributed.

How come nobody have mentioned the 4xbb raise is suspicious? If he had a strong had would he not encourage action. The guy who just calls has a weak hand in my opinion. While it is possible he is slow playing it is very unlikely.

I definetly push this. My logic being nothing here says that either one of them has QQ,KK,or AA. Like I said the first guy wouldn't raise that much and then second guy probably wouldn't call there. There's now 475 in the pot? Your stack is around 1100. I honestly think this is an easy push. If you get called by AK good! You are a favorite plus there is an 200 in there assuming one guy folds. The times where he does have beat with an overpair you still win 20% of the time.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

I cant imagine putting someone at the 11's on that tight of a range. I've seen many idiotic raises with low pp, sc, and the like. You still have quite a bit of FE. And even if he has AK or AQ you have the good end of a coin flip with 225 dead money in there to sweeten the deal. Oh and you only have 1150 left. I know you arent desperate per say but you are behind and the escalating blinds arent going to help you. ok, he could have aa-qq and you have to suck that up. But he's more likely to have some other garbage and you still may even get a call from a lower pp as low level players love to call with them anyways. I think the combination of FE, coin flip with dead money, and possibly being called by a lower pp outweigh the possibility you are looking at a higher pp.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

Yeah, it's close. Personally, I'd push this every single time and be happy with the results either way.

Time for some approximate math.

Hero folds:
Hero has 1115

Hero pushes: (507 + 531.2 + 86.75) = 1124.95
Both fold, 30% - Hero has 1690 (.3 * 1690 = 507)
One calls, 60%
Hero wins, 35% - Hero has 2530 (.35 * 2530) * .6 = 531.2
Villain wins, 65% - Hero has 0 (0)
Both call, 10%
Hero wins, 25% - Hero has 3470 (.25 * 3470) * .1 = 86.75
Villain wins, 75% - Hero has 0 (0)

Hero calls and pushes a favorable flop (470 + 422.5 + 246.675 + 138.8) = 1277.975

Hero calls and folds to an unfavorable flop, 50% - Hero has 940 (.5 * 940) = 470
Hero calls and pushes a favorable flop, Villains fold, 25% - Hero has 1690 (.25 * 1690) = 422.5
Hero calls and pushes a favorable flop, 1 Villain calls:
15%
Hero wins, 65% - Hero has 2530 (.65 * 2530) * .15 = 246.675
Villain wins, 35% - Hero has 0 (0)
Hero calls and pushes a favorable flop, both Villains call, 10%:
Hero wins, 40% - Hero has 3470 (.4 * 3470) * .1 = 138.8
Villain wins, 60% - Hero has 0

So if those numbers are anywhere close to right...

Calling: 1277.95
Pushing: 1124.95
Folding: 1115

Numbers seem vaguely right?

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

[ QUOTE ]
One calls, 60%
Hero wins, 35% - Hero has 2530 (.35 * 2530) * .6 = 531.2
Villain wins, 65% - Hero has 0 (0)

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I think hero is going to win more than 35%. vs AK he's gonna win 55%. vs a lower pp he's 80%. vs higher pp he's 20%. I guess I'd say its closer to 50% overall. Iguess it depends on how often you get called by a lower pp but at the 11's I think its a good possibility.

[ QUOTE ]
Hero calls and pushes a favorable flop, 1 Villain calls:
15%
Hero wins, 65% - Hero has 2530 (.65 * 2530) * .15 = 246.675
Villain wins, 35% - Hero has 0 (0)
Hero calls and pushes a favorable flop, both Villains call, 10%:
Hero wins, 40% - Hero has 3470 (.4 * 3470) * .1 = 138.8
Villain wins, 60% - Hero has 0


[/ QUOTE ]

OTOH if hero pushes an all undercard flop and gets called its more likely to be an overpair and even if it is ak hero can still lose so I would lower his winning percentage there.

So overall I'd just go with your original thought and just push.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

Yeah, if you shift those numbers to 50/50 for both scenarios, the EV goes to 1353 for pushing and 1221 for calling.

Happy middle ground makes it something like 1300 for push, 1300 for call, and 1115 for fold.

Still can't find the fold here, but push vs. call is debatable. I'd personally push, but that's just because it makes things easier for me and I don't have to make another decision.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

Do you really read that much into a 4BB raise?

If I click the slider over 1 too many times I'm not going to go through the effort of clicking it back 1 time just to get it to 3xBB.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

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[ QUOTE ]
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It isn't terrible at all.

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I would go so far as to say... standard?

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I don't think it's terrible, but I also don't think folding JJ here is standard in an $11.

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You're probably right, the problem is against an EP raiser and a caller you could be in serious trouble, I would probably go with it in the heat of the moment but I certainly wouldn't call and play it oop against two opponents.

Against any sort of decent opposition with a 4xBB raise UTG+1 this is a standard fold.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really read that much into a 4BB raise?

If I click the slider over 1 too many times I'm not going to go through the effort of clicking it back 1 time just to get it to 3xBB.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have AA or KK I think you are very concious of how much you raise. You may be right about overreading that.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

I mainly play Party 11's and in the earlier rounds, I almost always raise 4xBB with any PF worthy raising hand. I don't think you can really read that much into a 4xBB raise. Half of the donks on there, the amount of a raise is just a matter of personal preference, not a calculated maneuver to induce/discourage calls.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It isn't terrible at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would go so far as to say... standard?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's terrible, but I also don't think folding JJ here is standard in an $11.

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You're probably right, the problem is against an EP raiser and a caller you could be in serious trouble, I would probably go with it in the heat of the moment but I certainly wouldn't call and play it oop against two opponents.

Against any sort of decent opposition with a 4xBB raise UTG+1 this is a standard fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya but in an 11 the majority are not decent opposition.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

Alright, I did my own math. It's probably riddled with errors, because Neteller is slow and I still don't have SNGPT. Here goes:

Assuptions:
1) both pf raiser and smooth caller have the same ranges
2) BB will stay the hell out of the way
3) If I fold, UTG+1 wins and MP3 loses no additional chips
4) ICM applies

If seke's ranges are right and I push:
I steal 20.11% of the time (equity .12)
UTG+1 only calls, I win 14.36% of the time (.1782)
UTG+1 only calls, I lose 10.37% of the time (0)
MP3 only calls, I win 14.36% of the time (.1792)
MP3 only calls, I lose 10.37% of the time (0)
Both call, I win 11.98% of the time (.2294)
Both call, I lose 18.44% of the time (0)
Weighted average equity = .1029
Equity after fold = .0875

If seke's range is wrong, the correct pf raise, smooth call range is 99+,AT+,KQ, and the range on calling my push is TT+,AJ+...
I steal 13.10% of the time (equity .12)
UTG+1 only calls, I win 11.44% of the time (.1782)
UTG+1 only calls, I lose 11.65% of the time (0)
MP3 only calls, I win 11.44% of the time (.1792)
MP3 only calls, I lose 11.65% of the time (0)
Both call, I win 13.90% of the time (.2294)
Both call, I lose 26.81% of the time (0)
Weighted average equity = .0885
Equity after fold = .0875

So even if seke was wildly off in his ranges, pushing was correct. Thanks for all of the responses. If anyone finds errors in my math or methodology, let me know.

Re: $11 - Folded JJ pf.
 

I'm surprised the stealing percentage is so small. I figured they'd fold more often when you pushed. But I guess I also underestimated the chances of you winning if called.

In any case, the reality is probably somewhere between my wide ranges and your tight ranges, and all of that range is +EV.

Call and evaluate didn't seem to be too much worse than pushing either, for those who prefer that line.