Free money from BODOG
 

BODOG have some Ford props. Will Ford sell Jag? That is a sure thing. Will Ford sell LR? Pretty close to a sure thing. I can guess at some countries, but why guess when the sale of both is sure.

Will they sell them together? probably yes. Why else would anyone buy Jag and its $100 mil yearly losses if it wasnt part of LR deal. But I would call that a sure thing.

Re: Free money from BODOG
 

There's been a decent amount of speculation that Ford won't move LR, or at least not soon. I also think that there's a decent chance that they're not sold together, particularly if the buyers are financial buyers (ie. PE fund).

If I were to bet them, I'd probably take your sides, and I very well may bet the Jag prop. I'd want to do more research before I came to a conclusion.

-SonnyJay

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Trust me on this. You dont need more research

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The caveat is that Ford sells them in 2007. There is the distinct possibility that Ford just closes them for all the red ink that they spew.

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close them? no way. they will get a few billion for jag

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I don't mean to be critical, but do you have any stronger reasoning than
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Will they sell them together? probably yes. Why else would anyone buy Jag and its $100 mil yearly losses if it wasnt part of LR deal.

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This would hardly be the first time that a buyer, either financial or strategic, bought a company in the red without a profitable division thrown in. Any reason that you think that it is particularly true in this case?


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There is the distinct possibility that Ford just closes them for all the red ink that they spew.

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Agree with bot here, there is almost no chance this happens, and certainly not by the end of 2007. The only way that they'd close it and incur the costs of doing so is if they saw absolutely no signs of a turnaround and absolutely no buyers, and that doesn't seem to be the case here.

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I only guess that it would be together, becasue Jag has lost money for a lng time. Like since Ford bought them. So the turnaround cant be easy. But I am guessing that it is together. I didnt bet that, when i ccould simply bet on the sale.

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Interesting that Jag sale was minus 140 when i first posted it. Now it is minus 400.

But Jag sale is still easy money

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Here's a bet that I like:
"What Country will the Automaker that purchases Jaguar be from?"
England 13/2

I honestly think that Bodog was thinking only about existing automakers when setting the line here, not financial buyers. I e-mailed Bodog support, and they ensured that the buyer doesn't need to be an existing "Automaker." Thus, the winning country can also include where the investment vehicle is based.

Two of the prominent potential buyers are Alchemy Partners and Magma, both British firms. Alchemy reportedly is already preparing a bid, and Magma appears to be interested as well (the head of Magma is Martin Leach, who used to head up Ford Europe). Also, a lot of the speculation that the buyer will end up being from England due to some concerns about foreign firms dealing with the labor organizations.

Plenty of other buyers will come forward, and other funds already seem to be interested (including Cerberus). It's hardly a guarantee, but at a 13.3% breakeven percentage, I really like the odds on England.

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I e-mailed Bodog support, and they ensured that the buyer doesn't need to be an existing "Automaker." Thus, the winning country can also include where the investment vehicle is based.


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save that e-mail please

Re: Free money from BODOG
 

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I e-mailed Bodog support, and they ensured that the buyer doesn't need to be an existing "Automaker." Thus, the winning country can also include where the investment vehicle is based.


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save that e-mail please

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Oh yeah, way ahead of you.

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Given the huge level of PE activity in the US recently, and the monster sized funds raised by Cerberus, GS, KKR, TPG, Carlyle, et al, I don't like getting only 13-2 here unless there's a LOT of scuttlebutt in the UK that Magma/Leach or the other guys are seriously going to bid.

I'd want like 9-1 I'd say.

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Naj (or anyone else that follows these things), would you take the US at +350?

I just don't think it'll attract as many of the huge US firms since it's going to be a major pain to deal with the labor organizations and it'll require considerable concessions. This probably isn't going to be a 1 or 2 year slash-and-dump. It'll definitely get some interest, but it seems like it's a much more attractive proposition for a firm with designs on being in the auto business. Cerberus is definitely an option, but firms like Alchemy and Magma have tried in the past to acquire auto firms. Granted, MG Rover and Jaguar are very different, but both funds have stated fairly recently that they are looking for auto opportunities. The rumor is that Alchemy is already putting together a bid.

Obviously the US funds have much more capital, but it simply doesn't seem like the type of play that would be appealing to a lot of funds. On the other hand, these funds are just flooded with money right now, and this is a place to put it. It'll be interesting to see.

By the way, Ford hired KPMG to examine the Jag and LR books in preparation for a sale. Just another sign that Ford is serious about moving them.

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It is getting increasingly likely, imho, that Wilbur Ross or one of the the PE firms will buy a large division of Ford soon.

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we can analyse and handicap, which one first, to what country, together or separate. But JLR will be sold. Soon. Free Money

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Rumours were around for years that Jag will be sold and it will but not neccesery this year. I took action that it will but not too sure the price was right (-500).

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it will be sold this year

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it will be sold this year

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Give me 20-1 it won't?

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Sorry Naj. I wouldnt give 20/1 on the sun coming up in the morning. Especially when i an get better elsewhere

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Sorry Naj. I wouldnt give 20/1 on the sun coming up in the morning.

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i would.

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it will be sold this year

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Starting to look like this might not be true. The buzz I've heard is that they'll hold off until January 2008 to announce a buyer. Either way, it looks like it'll be close.

Also read a few reports that say Tata has the inside track, but I'm not confident enough in it to take them at +250. A lot of the theory is that PE funds might not be able to get the financing that would make the deal appealing in the current market. Also, Fiat and Mahindra are supposedly out.

Has anyone that follows M&A heard anything similar/different?

Re: Free money from BODOG
 

i've been hearing tata's name a lot so i jumped on it when it was 5/1

now it looks like ford doesn't wanna sell it and instead wants to retain most ownership which would favor one of the hedge funds

personally i think what happened was tata was the highest bidder by far but they don't want to sell to them

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I don't think Tata will win. JMHO.

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Mahindra & Mahindra and Cerebus (one of the favorites) pulled out of bidding

Four firms remain in the race to buy Ford’s European luxury brands Jaguar and Land Rover after the Indian SUV and car maker Mahindra & Mahindra and the private equity group Cerberus pulled out, according to sources quoted by India’s Economic Times.

It says the private equity groups One Equity Partners, Ripplewood and Texas Pacific Group, and the Indian vehicle manufacturer Tata Motors have yet to complete due diligence on Jaguar and Land Rover. One of the paper’s sources said at least one potential bidder was seeking a bigger commitment from Ford to a sale before undertaking extensive due diligence investigations.

Ford was said to be trying to avoid committing itself to a sale of Jaguar and Land Rover “in case its current funding problems undermine the brands’ value”, but CEO Alan Mulally has indicated that a buyer is likely to be confirmed by the end of the year.

(Economic Times, 25 September)

Re: Free money from BODOG
 

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I e-mailed Bodog support, and they ensured that the buyer doesn't need to be an existing "Automaker." Thus, the winning country can also include where the investment vehicle is based.


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save that e-mail please

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Oh yeah, way ahead of you.

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Doesn't matter. Bodog will keep your money if they feel like it. They might not even bother to tell you why. If they are feeling generous, they might tell you that it was an "obviously wrong" line and refund your money. They are the sleaziest book among those still considered by many to be legit.

Re: Free money from BODOG
 

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it will be sold this year

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Give me 20-1 it won't?

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Naj, can we quit all these little cute posts where you try to offer people 5x worse than market price whenever they express confidence on something? Obviously, even if it was a lock, they'd be better off betting it elsewhere. It really doesn't prove anything at all when they refuse you and your little 20:1 posts clutter up the forum more than their declarations do.

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it will be sold this year

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Give me 20-1 it won't?

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Naj, can we quit all these little cute posts where you try to offer people 5x worse than market price whenever they express confidence on something? Obviously, even if it was a lock, they'd be better off betting it elsewhere. It really doesn't prove anything at all when they refuse you and your little 20:1 posts clutter up the forum more than their declarations do.

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you are obviously missing the brilliant point he is making with these posts, and i mean it's not like he makes these 20-1 responses every single time someone implies that they are very sure of a bet...i definitely saw one where he offered a guy 10-1

Re: Free money from BODOG
 

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it will be sold this year

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Give me 20-1 it won't?

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Naj, can we quit all these little cute posts where you try to offer people 5x worse than market price whenever they express confidence on something? Obviously, even if it was a lock, they'd be better off betting it elsewhere. It really doesn't prove anything at all when they refuse you and your little 20:1 posts clutter up the forum more than their declarations do.

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In fairness to Naj, I think his point was valid. Anyone coming on and saying "this is a lock, free money" with no analysis can deal with sarcastic responses, IMO.

Let's all put aside our differences and put this thread in I HAS LOCKS, where it belongs.

Re: Free money from BODOG
 

Sorry I didnt include analysis. I really cant say what I know. But it is still a lock. In fact the GM settlement makes it more so. Ford will need a similar settlement to be competitive. Where do you think Ford will get $23 Billion? It should be done this weekend, and announced next week. And Tata is the most likely.

I would also expect this increases likelihood of Volvo sale also

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it will be sold this year

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Give me 20-1 it won't?

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Naj, can we quit all these little cute posts where you try to offer people 5x worse than market price whenever they express confidence on something? Obviously, even if it was a lock, they'd be better off betting it elsewhere. It really doesn't prove anything at all when they refuse you and your little 20:1 posts clutter up the forum more than their declarations do.

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In fairness to Naj, I think his point was valid. Anyone coming on and saying "this is a lock, free money" with no analysis can deal with sarcastic responses, IMO.

Let's all put aside our differences and put this thread in I HAS LOCKS, where it belongs.

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Perf responded and offered to give me 8 or 10-1 on KC not making playoffs when line was 4-1 [I took him up on that], so I think I'll keep doing it when I want to. It's to make $$, not to be cute.

I've also won money from posters who swore up and down the Skins would be >8-8 in past years, and Terps would finish > UNC cbb as well.
Also, last week the question was about ATS/scores after OSU benched their starters. That is not offered in *any* book, so it's highly strange for you to say I can't try to negotiate a price here.

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it will be sold this year

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Give me 20-1 it won't?

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Naj, can we quit all these little cute posts where you try to offer people 5x worse than market price whenever they express confidence on something? Obviously, even if it was a lock, they'd be better off betting it elsewhere. It really doesn't prove anything at all when they refuse you and your little 20:1 posts clutter up the forum more than their declarations do.

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In fairness to Naj, I think his point was valid. Anyone coming on and saying "this is a lock, free money" with no analysis can deal with sarcastic responses, IMO.

Let's all put aside our differences and put this thread in I HAS LOCKS, where it belongs.

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Perf responded and offered to give me 8 or 10-1 on KC not making playoffs when line was 4-1 [I took him up on that], so I think I'll keep doing it when I want to. It's to make $$, not to be cute.

I've also won money from posters who swore up and down the Skins would be >8-8 in past years, and Terps would finish > UNC cbb as well.
Also, last week the question was about ATS/scores after OSU benched their starters. That is not offered in *any* book, so it's highly strange for you to say I can't try to negotiate a price here.

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Sorry for misinterpreting, I figured that you were just trying to make a point. Either way, I don't see why anyone would take issue with it.

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Where do you think Ford will get $23 Billion?

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The valuations I'm hearing on Jaguar/LR are in the area of $1.5BN. I don't know how the payments would work out on a settlement but I doubt it would be a lump sum, and plenty of external financing would still be needed. I'm not overly familiar with the labor situation, but I don't think that it would have any real relation to the Jaguar/LR situation.


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It should be done this weekend, and announced next week.

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Much respect if you're right on this. This would absolutely shock me.

Re: Free money from BODOG
 

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The valuations I'm hearing on Jaguar/LR are in the area of $1.5BN. I don't know how the payments would work out on a settlement but I doubt it would be a lump sum, and plenty of external financing would still be needed. I'm not overly familiar with the labor situation, but I don't think that it would have any real relation to the Jaguar/LR situation.


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I think the valuation is about right. There are still issues around where would Jaguar engines come from, and CO2 fleet affects. But i still think this weekend is it.

The connection to the labor issue, is that Ford will have to come up with about $23 Billion to match the GM settlement. Last year Ford mortgaged everything. So, every $B will be precious. But i have to admit this part of the discussion is me speculating. I know far less about the financing of the health care settlement.

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It should be done this weekend, and announced next week.

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Much respect if you're right on this. This would absolutely shock me.

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Me as well. I guess we'll find out!

Re: Free money from BODOG
 

just saw this on the tv

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/22/news...s/unions_tata/

Tata bid for Jaguar, Land Rover boosted
Unions back offer, say Tata would be best suited to manage the luxury brands if Ford sells them - reports.

Huge boost for Tata

Re: Free money from BODOG
 

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it will be sold this year

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is it getting sold in next 5 weeks you think?

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Thanks for the update. Current Bodog odds. Still any value?

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Odds On: Which manufacturer will buy Ford's Jaguar and Land Rover brands?

Listed Competitors Only. Both Jaguar and Land Rover must be sold to the same buyer by January 31st, 2008 for wagers to have action. Any wagers placed after outcome is public knowledge will be no action. Max. $50.

The Tata Group 6/5
Mahindra & Mahindra 5/2
The Fiat Group 9/1
Cerberus Capital Management 2/1
One Equity Partners 5/2
Ripplewood Holdings 5/1
Texas Pacific Group 11/2

Re: Free money from BODOG
 

No such thing as free money from Bodog.
On a whim, they will just take your money away from you.
Claim that it was an obviously bad line.

Re: Free money from BODOG
 

skip you are crazy. Bodog grades these bets correctly and pays out on them 99% of the time.

What is your beef with Bodog anyway? The only thing I see you posted in SB forum is knocking them multiple times but no reason why. I have taken $10k + off them the last 2 years on silly bets alone. Paying every single time.

Re: Free money from BODOG
 

I suppose that it is possibe that Bodog has changed. I haven't dealt with them since they no-actioned a boxing bet (Klitschko-Brock) shortly before the start of the event. They no actioned me (late) two other times to leave me with naked arbs. Perhaps if I had won the other sides instead of going 0-fer, I wouldn't be so upset. They used to deal dual lines (while vehemently denying it). Perhaps they don't do this anymore. The vig was quite stiff on the events that I wanted to play (I didn't bet baseball, apparently they were okay there.) I haven't done any sportsbetting since the neteller fiasco. Maybe the landscape has changed. It is entirely possible that I was just unlucky with them. I was never no-actioned at any other site (played mostly Pinny and The Greek, but some at Bet Jamaica, WSEX and Skybook).

On the poker front, they didn't seem to care about what seemed like very obvious collusion that I encountered there.