Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

What is a good win rate, in terms of money, for a loose/passive $15-30 game like those that run at the Bellagio? Is it possible to make $60-80K per year playing 40-45 hours per week in such a game? My style of play does very well in such games, but seems not to do as well in more aggressive games such as the $20-40 at the Mirage. Speaking of which, what is everyone's opinion of the profit potential of that game? It is definitely aggressive, although a lot of it is misplaced aggression, but there are always at least 2-3 fish in the game that add lots of chips to the pots.

Thank you for all responses.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

When I played there reguarly I was around 2.25BB/hr but I aint that great.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

Really? $60-70 per hour? Is that sustainable?

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

I did it for about 6 months or so. Variance was pretty high on a day to day basis. Played 40 hrs a week. Also, this was several years ago.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

$50/hr would be really good. $30/hr is more reasonable.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

I'm over 2BB an hour in it but not nearly enough hours and probably not sustainable. I notice that the game can get pretty tough. I know I played one time where there were several other 2+2ers at the table and another time where there were zero passive fish and the only reason the game was beatable was because there were 2 lagtards who kept overplaying their hands. They clobbered most of the weak/scarred/tight players that were at the table, but myself and another 2+2er kinda cleaned their clocks by simply calling down nearly every hand we entered the pot with.

On other occasions though, the players were just awful fish and the games were good.

Another thing is that I don't generally play during the day. I have found the daytime games more difficult.

And FWIW, I think the Mirage $10-20 is a pretty beatable game, and the Wynn $15-30 is very good sometimes too.

One more thing....in your post you ask about yearly income potential. I assume that means you are considering a move to Vegas to try being a pro. I need to comment on that. #1 I cannot imagine trying to make a living at these levels for a whole host of reasons. #2 I don't think mid limit holdem games in Vegas are a good way to make a living, particularly $10-20 up to $30-60. There are not a lot of games, and a few times a year, there are very few games.

If you did want to pursue poker as a career, I highly recommend getting a job with benefits(regardless of pay) that allows you to work 20-30 hours a week and supplementing that work with your poker play. I'm not sure that very many people are capable of sustained winning play combined with riding out variance at these levels of limit play.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

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$50/hr would be really good. $30/hr is more reasonable.

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This is the most reasonable figures yet and even this may be on the high side imo. Every time I see one of these threads I want to butt in and say that games have to be running short in order for people to realize this 1.5-2 bb/hr number. I don't know about Bellagio 15, but most smaller games you have to play at off-peak hours in order to play short.

In a 10-handed live game though you vpip about 7 hands/hour and I just don't think it's likely you'll see more than 1.25 bb/hr.

There is also the issue of the rake (or is this a time game?) which means you have to chop blinds and defend and steal less than optimal.

Obviously people are gonna have 2+ bb/hr over long periods of time but that doesn't mean much since live winrate takes lifetimes to converge lol.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

I'm a losing player at that game. The worse my opponents, the more I lose. I can play for 6 months at Commerce and not go on tilt as fast as I could in 6 hours at Bellagio 15.

Last year my job was taking chips from the Wynn 15 table and depositing them at the Bellagio 15 table. I left Vegas after 5 days having pretty much broken even, winning big at Wynn and losing it all back at Bellagio. And the Bellagio games were far juicier.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

Let me explain my situation. I am 25, single, and currently in the Air Force and work as a chemical engineer. My position is being cut and I have to find something anyway. I have the bankroll, living expenses, and skill necessary to give it a try for 6-12 months. My montly nut is in the neighborhood of $2300. At $30-35/hr, 40-45 hrs/wk, how is this even close to being a bad idea? I fully understand the concept of variance, hence the bankroll and savings, but even if I'm a marginal winner at these stakes, I will at least be able to tread water and cover expenses for a year or so, experience playing for a living, and still have an engineering degree and work experience to get a "real" job if I decide I want one. What am I missing?

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

Golden rule of live winrate threads:

The higher the winrate someone claims to sustain, the less they tend to be capable of.

2 bets an hour implies 6B/100.
Maybe it's possible if you pick only the best games.
But you'll have a hard time putting in as many hours as you want to if you only play in the easiest games.


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What am I missing?

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The fact that you can make more playing smaller stakes and fewer hours online, if you're good enough.


I dont think playing live 'professionally' is worthwhile below the 30/60 level. And because the gap in skill is pretty negligable between 15/30 and 30/60, there's not much of a reason to play lower unless you dont have the cash to.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

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$50/hr would be really good. $30/hr is more reasonable.

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In a 10-handed live game though you vpip about 7 hands/hour and I just don't think it's likely you'll see more than 1.25 bb/hr.

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These pieces of knowledge are really good. If you can beat a 15 or 20 game for 1.3BB/hr, I think you're doing really well.

Most people I talk to fail to track their live records very accurately. If you do go ahead with the poker route, I'd recommend keeping an excel spreadsheet of win/loss record and hours played per session (at the very least).

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

I dont know of anyone capable of actually playing 40+ real table hours a week for an extended time at any poker game at all, period.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

I've logged about 20 hours or so at the Bellagio 15/30 game during afternoons. They are not great. Are you the youngish asian guy, bonovox?

$30/hr seems about right overall. There are tons of ups and downs and it takes hundreds of hours to gauge a winrate. What is more likely to happen before you get the sufficient hours to see your winrate is that the game will change, for better or for worse.

Anyhow the best mid-limit game to play is the Wynn's 30/60. If you don't have the cash, I recommend getting a buddy to buy half your action. The 15/30 is much worse, as it is the feeder game for the highest limit game (30/60). I've heard from a friend and some random talking to his friend that the 30/60 is really that good.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

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What am I missing?

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The fact that you can make more playing smaller stakes and fewer hours online, if you're good enough.


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I wouldn't be so sure of that. Playing a 5/10 online game plays much tougher than a 15/30 live game and from talking to others, the 10/20 online plays tougher than a lot of live 30s and 40s. Rakeback is definatly a plus but I don't know many people who have winrates >1.5bb/100 over a significant sample size. rakeback is nice but I dont know how phesable it is to expect a consistant income of >3k/month online w/out some very significant hours and a very high skill level. Another point to consider is that OP said he has trouble in the aggressive games. The majority of online games, even @ the LLs are much more aggro than live games. Online games may not suit OPs game as well as the live games.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

You already play in the softest middle-limit game in the country, why move? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

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I dont think playing live 'professionally' is worthwhile below the 30/60 level. And because the gap in skill is pretty negligable between 15/30 and 30/60, there's not much of a reason to play lower unless you dont have the cash to.

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I have to disagree here, if you are talking live. There may not be much skill difference between the better players at these games. But the smaller game will have more unskilled passive players.

I see a big difference in the number of sheep at the 15/30 and 30/60 games at Bellagio. At Wynn, the difference between the two games is even more pronounced.

The same is a little true when you compare the 20/40 and 40/80 games at commerce. There is not a big difference between the better players. The difference is the average number of bad players per table. The bad players are also more aggressive as you move up, which makes them more difficult.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

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Let me explain my situation. I am 25, single, and currently in the Air Force and work as a chemical engineer. My position is being cut and I have to find something anyway. I have the bankroll, living expenses, and skill necessary to give it a try for 6-12 months. My montly nut is in the neighborhood of $2300. At $30-35/hr, 40-45 hrs/wk, how is this even close to being a bad idea? I fully understand the concept of variance, hence the bankroll and savings, but even if I'm a marginal winner at these stakes, I will at least be able to tread water and cover expenses for a year or so, experience playing for a living, and still have an engineering degree and work experience to get a "real" job if I decide I want one. What am I missing?

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On my one and only trip to Vegas I finished up $900 playing about 20 hours. So the following is not loser-talk: I don't have confidence that the games are clean. If not, the fish are not fish.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

Is anyone able to accurately comment on the comparable difficulties between 15/30 and 30/60 at belagio / wynn as compared to 5/10 or 10/20 at stars?

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

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I dont know of anyone capable of actually playing 40+ real table hours a week for an extended time at any poker game at all, period.

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There is at least one that posts here.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

I don't play the Bellagio if I can help it. Same with the Mirage. Any room that makes you suck [censored] to get a $15 comp is not high on my list. On the weekend, try the Wynn. Also try the Venetian after their tourney breaks (which are daily).

- Jim

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

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I dont know of anyone capable of actually playing 40+ real table hours a week for an extended time at any poker game at all, period.

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There is at least one that posts here.

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regardless, people vastly overestimate their playing stamina.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

"The same is a little true when you compare the 20/40 and 40/80 games at commerce."

On the whole the very good 40 players are much better than the very good 20 players. It's tougher to notice because it's a large sea.

-Michael

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

You are missing that once you've "worked" as a professional gambler, your engineering degree may become useless, and you may be unemployable. I know a number of people who went from petroleum engineering or another technical field to gambler. They never went back, because they can't go back, and they'll never have the income or opportunities they would have had again. The young engineer with low expenses/no family can set up retirement shelters, he's earning social security which can never be seized by lawsuits or IRS, plus he's getting paid vacations and health insurance. The young gambler with low expenses/no family has to provide all of those things out of his own pocket and in some circumstances may not be able to participate in social security at all. Even if you earned a little more playing cards than you did as an engineer, you don't earn enough to make up for the huge gap in benefits. Plus, it isn't just about getting the assets, it's about sheltering the assets. By middle age, you'll probably be involved in at least one lawsuit and at least one audit, and you come to appreciate the benefits of safety nets like social security and 401(K)s a lot more. That's what you're missing. You are about to step on a path that will almost certainly close doors to you forever.

Think about it from the employer's point of view? Would you hire someone who worked as a professional gambler? I wouldn't, and I've myself worked as a professional gambler. The odds are too high that the reason the person became a gambler is because they are not a team player or they have some other severe personal or social problem. Sure, there are exceptions. But not enough that the smart employer will often be willing to take a chance that you're the exception. I realize that if you decide to go back to engineering, you could always try to lie and say you were traveling or whatever. But, again, a guy barely out of college who just decides to not work and go traveling for a couple of years -- am I going to hire that guy or the guy who actually continued to work for more than 10 minutes to gain experience? It's a no brainer. If you were 35 instead of 25, maybe there was some chance you wouldn't be completely trashing your degree by taking a leave of absence for a year. But right now you're showing a classic pattern of a guy who can't stand prosperity. You're just jumping to something else before you're giving the first thing a fair chance.

Also, $40 an hour is a pathetic earn for the self-employed. Again, it's because you're greatly underestimating the value of employer paid benefits such as health insurance. Oddly enough, if you were married and had a spouse to provide the health insurance benefits, 401(K), etcetera, $40 an hour would be OK. But it's terrible for a single person with no fallback.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

Well said, goodgrief. I concur.

I had a big tourney win last year (which I coincidentally won 2 weeks after quitting an engineering job), and I had planned to find new work within a couple months. With the "cushion" of the tourney win I felt like I could see what playing everyday would be like, though... after 5 months of the grind, I realized it was time to get back "a real job", since I wasn't even making 1BB/hr at the local 20 game.

When I first started looking for work, the "what have you been doing the last 6 months" question came up, and I pretty much had to say I just took time off, that I hadn't done so in several years of working as an engineer... had that span of time been much longer, I probably would have had a harder time finding a good job.

Having a real job again, and playing a few times a week instead, has been a much more comfortable existence. I might not get as much experience as fast, but I haven't gotten mired down in the grind, either: it's still fun to play pretty much every time I go, now.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

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I'm a losing player at that game. The worse my opponents, the more I lose. I can play for 6 months at Commerce and not go on tilt as fast as I could in 6 hours at Bellagio 15.

Last year my job was taking chips from the Wynn 15 table and depositing them at the Bellagio 15 table. I left Vegas after 5 days having pretty much broken even, winning big at Wynn and losing it all back at Bellagio. And the Bellagio games were far juicier.

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PJ,

Could you elaborate? Did you find something especially troublesome at the B or was this plain bad luck.

Please explain, as I'm planning to play this game next week.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

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I'm a losing player at that game. The worse my opponents, the more I lose. I can play for 6 months at Commerce and not go on tilt as fast as I could in 6 hours at Bellagio 15.

Last year my job was taking chips from the Wynn 15 table and depositing them at the Bellagio 15 table. I left Vegas after 5 days having pretty much broken even, winning big at Wynn and losing it all back at Bellagio. And the Bellagio games were far juicier.

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PJ,

Could you elaborate? Did you find something especially troublesome at the B or was this plain bad luck.

Please explain, as I'm planning to play this game next week.

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If you have ever played advantage video poker, it is something like that. All of the profit is tied up in big, infrequent pays. You win in the long run, but only after you cash the big winners. When many people are in pots and going too far with hands you will win far less often, while the games have bigger long term profit potential. You will simply be less consistent. You will not open raise with AK, semi-bluff the missed flop, and rake in the pot. You will also seldom win with top pair. But you will have rare days when you hit lots of flushes, straights, and full houses. You will have very big wins on those rare days. But because so much of your win is tied up in long shot hands your variance will be much higher.

PJ would have eventually come out ahead if he kept putting in hours at this game. Imagine a video poker machine with a progressive royal flush meter. The meter is at 5X the normal royal flush payout and you have a huge advantage. Well, you could go in and pump $100 a day through that machine for a long time. You won't realize a profit until you finally hit the royal.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

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Well said, goodgrief. I concur.

I had a big tourney win last year (which I coincidentally won 2 weeks after quitting an engineering job), and I had planned to find new work within a couple months. With the "cushion" of the tourney win I felt like I could see what playing everyday would be like, though... after 5 months of the grind, I realized it was time to get back "a real job", since I wasn't even making 1BB/hr at the local 20 game.

When I first started looking for work, the "what have you been doing the last 6 months" question came up, and I pretty much had to say I just took time off, that I hadn't done so in several years of working as an engineer... had that span of time been much longer, I probably would have had a harder time finding a good job.

Having a real job again, and playing a few times a week instead, has been a much more comfortable existence. I might not get as much experience as fast, but I haven't gotten mired down in the grind, either: it's still fun to play pretty much every time I go, now.

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Yes, I feel a little guilty about a young guy who joined my blackjack team. He was working as a dealer at a casino while he was in school, engineering. He began playing blackjack with us. After gradutation he went on some interviews, but never worked a single day. He became a full time professional gambler, which he has been for about the last 10 years. He has done pretty well but I'm sure his parents are horrified. At the time we recruited him I was wondering if we were about to ruin this guy's life.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

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I dont know of anyone capable of actually playing 40+ real table hours a week for an extended time at any poker game at all, period.

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There is at least one that posts here.

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regardless, people vastly overestimate their playing stamina.

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20 hours a week is all I can do, but I'm lazy.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

bell 30 is far tougher than bell 15 in my experience.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

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I dont know of anyone capable of actually playing 40+ real table hours a week for an extended time at any poker game at all, period.

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There is at least one that posts here.

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regardless, people vastly overestimate their playing stamina.

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20 hours a week is all I can do, but I'm lazy.

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But you do it between 5 pm friday and 8 am monday so it looks to me like this is more of a brag post. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

keep poker a hobbey supplemental income OP. if for no other reason not spending all ur poker winnings grows ur BR better. It also becomes less fun and hard to play as much when its ur only job. Id probably play close to as much if i had another 40 hr a week job rather than only playing 25 hrs a week whne its my sole income. I cant complan much about my first year as a semi pro, the schedules nice and i made plenty to pay for alot of unexpected expenses i wouldnt have been able to if workin some [censored] part time job while going back to school but at the same time ive spemt the equivalent of a BR for stakes far higher than i regularly play now online, im kind of a nit tho.

also playing live variance wise u can run bad for months since live ud be playing as many hands a week in 40 hrs as many pros play a day online.

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Even if you earned a little more playing cards than you did as an engineer, you don't earn enough to make up for the huge gap in benefits.

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For a little more, i'd say any conventional job is better.

But i think that for a lot of us, the potential is to make a lot more. Especially in countries where gambling winnings arent taxed.

Someone with a salary of 50-60k a year, which i assume is pretty standard to start off with for someone with a degree but no experience, can save very little. 15-20k goes to the government.


If you cant make significantly more than 30-40k a year at poker, you should just resign to the fact that you suck.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

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I dont know of anyone capable of actually playing 40+ real table hours a week for an extended time at any poker game at all, period.

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There is at least one that posts here.

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regardless, people vastly overestimate their playing stamina.

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20 hours a week is all I can do, but I'm lazy.

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But you do it between 5 pm friday and 8 am monday so it looks to me like this is more of a brag post. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Ha! I would go insane if I tried that. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] The sad part is, I probably spend more time on 2+2 per week than I do playing poker. I tried the 40 hour thing for a few months a while back, and I ran at 2.7bb/100 and I still hated life. Thats when I knew something had to change becuz suffering burnout is a legitimate risk for me whether I win or lose. 15-20 hours a week is the perfect number for me cuz then I never stop loving this game, or atleast I never hate this game too much.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

I think ive maybe hit 40 hours of play in a week once in my life.

I now tend to play about 20 a week, and hover around 400 hands/hour. I think a lot of what stops me from playing more is the environment im in. Im moving into my own place in 5 days... hopefully i can kick it up to 12kish hands a week.

Re: Win rate in Bellagio $15-30 games
 

I hated it within 3 months. I tried to work it like a job.