KK call fold or push?
 

sunday million on ps 6/10/07
45 minutes into tournament this hand comes up. my read on villian was that he played his previous hands strongly after the flop (pot size bets,check raises) or he check/fold. do I follow harington or raymer on this hand.
PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t14550)
UTG+1 (t17000)
Hero (t9575)
MP2 (t9050)
MP3 (t5200)
CO (t13675)
Button (t13775)
SB (t22700)
BB (t13700)

Preflop: Hero is in MP1 with K K
UTG raises to t600, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to t1600, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG raises to t4800

call,fold,or push?

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

Absolutely horrible spot! He's raised UTG and been re raised, he surely has to put you on QQ+ or at least AK which means he has something here. Im not sure if im right but i shove this and hate doing it. I expect to see AA about half the time.

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

I shove and love life

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

My guts tell me to shove, but let's think about it critically.

The pot is 7300. You have 7975 left. The rule of thumb is that a player is full of [censored] [/i]at least[/i] 10% of the time. So 10% of the time your opponent will fold and you'll win 7300.

Of the remaining 90%, assume your opponent's range is QQ+. 6/13 of the time your opponent will have QQ. 81.2% of the time you will win 15275. 18.8% of the time you will lose 7975. 1/13 of the time your opponent will have KK, which is a push and you will win 3650. 6/13 of the time your opponent will have AA. 81.3% of the time you will lose 7975, 18.7% of the time you will win 15275.*

I've probably screwed up the math, but I get an EV of 4005 for a shove if this assumption is correct. If he folds QQ half the time, it drops to 3257. If he always folds QQ, then it drops to 2508. In any case, all you need is for him to make this 3-bet with QQ+, and you have a clear +EV call. If his range for the move is only KK+/10% other, though, then you are in deep doo-doo, for an EV of -1598. Boost it to 20% other, and you get -610. If it is 30% other, then it's +379.

The point of this exercise is to show that you need serious evidence to fold KK preflop. I think your opponent is pretty aggressive and may have a wider range for this move than KK+. He only needs about a 30% deviation from KK+ for a shove to be profitable. The wider the deviation, the more profit for you.

*I did some simplification here. Actually sometimes you'll win or lose vs. KK, and sometimes you'll tie against QQ or AA. But these eventualities are very minor and shouldn't change the calculations much.

Edit: Fixed arithmetic errors.

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

never fold KK preflop in an online tournament.

Someone will have AA ~ 1:22 times that you have KK but their range is always big enough for you to go all in.

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

I def push....same situation came up two weeks ago for me. If he has AA, oh well.

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Absolutely horrible spot! He's raised UTG and been re raised, he surely has to put you on QQ+ or at least AK which means he has something here. Im not sure if im right but i shove this and hate doing it. I expect to see AA about half the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disregard this. KK is huge.

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

LOL just because it's online doesnt mean the guy is an idiot. He's raised UTG and he knows full well that a raise UTG means something. Now if hero re raises UTG raiser that is sending a strong message. IMO if id been watching hero play and he hadn't got out of line id think the absolute minimum hero has is AK. So why would he then shove??? Maybe my opinions are clouded because ive had a horrid run of about 3 weeks where literally just about 1/3 of the time when ive had KK ive run into AA. The way villain plays this AA is a strong possibility. BTW I said I shove this because like every1 says there isnt really any reason to fold kings here, all im saying is I do it expecting to see aces a good percentage of the time. I think villain folds JJ and AK here, depending on how loose he is he may well fold QQ too. So to sum up I did say I shove this Im just not over the moon about doing so probably due to recent experience.

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

Glad he cleared that one up.

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

no problem newbie

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

easy shove

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

I was always taught it's better to say nothing than talk about nothing which you seem to have done quite well in your posts.

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

Yes fishy I have quite clearly talked about nothing, this coming from the guy whos contribution to this thread was "Glad he cleared that one up" Jesus learn to be consistent. Anyway I havnt got time to argue with you, I gave my opinion which was similar to most of the others i.e. I shove here. Im sorry if that's not good enough for you. Feel free to post something else you were always taught, like "life is like a box of chocolates"
Have fun.

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

[ QUOTE ]
LOL just because it's online doesnt mean the guy is an idiot. He's raised UTG and he knows full well that a raise UTG means something. Now if hero re raises UTG raiser that is sending a strong message. IMO if id been watching hero play and he hadn't got out of line id think the absolute minimum hero has is AK. So why would he then shove??? Maybe my opinions are clouded because ive had a horrid run of about 3 weeks where literally just about 1/3 of the time when ive had KK ive run into AA. The way villain plays this AA is a strong possibility. BTW I said I shove this because like every1 says there isnt really any reason to fold kings here, all im saying is I do it expecting to see aces a good percentage of the time. I think villain folds JJ and AK here, depending on how loose he is he may well fold QQ too. So to sum up I did say I shove this Im just not over the moon about doing so probably due to recent experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're giving villain a TON of credit. A random online player will almost NEVER fold TT or JJ here (granted, they do usually call with them, but raising is not unheard of), and certainly never QQ. Keep in mind that a lot of players would just call here and slowplay with AA. You need a pretty good read for his range for 4 betting here to be QQ+, he absolutely has TT+, AK and worse here a good percentage of the time.

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
LOL just because it's online doesnt mean the guy is an idiot. He's raised UTG and he knows full well that a raise UTG means something. Now if hero re raises UTG raiser that is sending a strong message. IMO if id been watching hero play and he hadn't got out of line id think the absolute minimum hero has is AK. So why would he then shove??? Maybe my opinions are clouded because ive had a horrid run of about 3 weeks where literally just about 1/3 of the time when ive had KK ive run into AA. The way villain plays this AA is a strong possibility. BTW I said I shove this because like every1 says there isnt really any reason to fold kings here, all im saying is I do it expecting to see aces a good percentage of the time. I think villain folds JJ and AK here, depending on how loose he is he may well fold QQ too. So to sum up I did say I shove this Im just not over the moon about doing so probably due to recent experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're giving villain a TON of credit. A random online player will almost NEVER fold TT or JJ here (granted, they do usually call with them, but raising is not unheard of), and certainly never QQ. Keep in mind that a lot of players would just call here and slowplay with AA. You need a pretty good read for his range for 4 betting here to be QQ+, he absolutely has TT+, AK and worse here a good percentage of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Amen.

I did exactly that myself yesterday with TT facing a 3 bet iso-raise (was committed and wanted to win it)... and ran into JJ with 13 people left in a Stars 180. I bet you see AK more than AA here because AA often flat calls the raise and lets you walk into a world of hurt.

And yes online is different... not only for the quality of
the players, but for the lack of reads that are available and more memorable in live play, decisions are often made much quicker etc.

Folding KK is a crime here... Don't listen to anything else...shove em in and see all 5

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

Gotta go w/ KK, I mean if he's got AA than he's got it, but most of the time your going to be up against AK or a smaller pair such as QQ or JJ. Me personally, I can fold QQ or lower preflop depending on the action at the table and whose involved obviously but folding KK isn't happening, you have to go with it and hope your up against a smaller pair or AK.

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

Joey, who said they were folding this??

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

I've folded KK preflop exactly one time, and it was only because I was very familiar with the people in the game and was absolutely positive that the original raiser held AA. Here, however, you are nowhere close to absolutely positive that this guy has AA. As others have said, his range is considerably larger, and KK crushes the vast majority of it.

Generally speaking, KK means "get as much money in the pot as humanly possible." Follow that mantra here.

--TFGoose

Re: KK call fold or push?
 

Ive folded KK pre flop a good few times but most of them have been due to structure of a particular tourney e.g. 9 man sng with 4 left, im short stack, all 3 opponents go all in, i toss my KK into the muck and make the money. In terms of mtt I have folded them twice to my knowledge. 1 time the table went raise, then i re raised with KK then another player re raised, next player shoves and original player calls instantly lol. Anyway you def have to shove here, im just not crazy about it.