hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

i have no read or stats on him (my pokerace isnt working) but im pretty sure he has a set or aces


up. he left himself with 200 behind. i folded because i didn't know if he was good enough to realize i'd almost never check the flop with a flush draw. but it really looks like he bet the amount that'll let him get away if i shove, and from his perspective, since i called the turn, i shouldn't have a hand worth bluffing with.

sorry for raw hh, my internet is screwy and the converter isnt working for me

Dealt to josh [J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
hsaenz calls $4
MasterOfPuppies folds
josh raises to $20
2coop folds
guns18 calls $16
hsaenz folds
*** FLOP *** [Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] (2 players, $46)
guns18 checks
josh checks
*** TURN *** [Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] [9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] (2 players, $46)
guns18 checks
josh bets $28
guns18 raises to $65
josh calls $37
*** RIVER *** [Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] [3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] (2 players, $176)
guns18 bets $75
josh folds

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

or to induce a bluff

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
or to induce a bluff

[/ QUOTE ]


note that he had less than $400 to start the hand so there's a better than average chance that he's bad. and his screenname suggests he might have downs syndrome

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

[ QUOTE ]

and his screenname suggests he might have downs syndrome

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

No one is folding 2p+ on that river after they bet so weak (they will always tell themselves their small bet caused you to bluff or w/e), so if its 2p you are putting him on then fold. And obviously they arent folding AAA...

Turn call seems bad though if you are putting him on 2pair. Were you calling on a blank?

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
or to induce a bluff

[/ QUOTE ]


note that he had less than $400 to start the hand so there's a better than average chance that he's bad. and his screenname suggests he might have downs syndrome

[/ QUOTE ]

I lold

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
or to induce a bluff

[/ QUOTE ]


note that he had less than $400 to start the hand so there's a better than average chance that he's bad. and his screenname suggests he might have downs syndrome

[/ QUOTE ]
If he's bad, he doesn't know yet what to do if raised.

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
No one is folding 2p+ on that river after they bet so weak (they will always tell themselves their small bet caused you to bluff or w/e), so if its 2p you are putting him on then fold. And obviously they arent folding AAA...

Turn call seems bad though if you are putting him on 2pair. Were you calling on a blank?

[/ QUOTE ]


i mightve called if he shoved ro potted the river. his bet just screamed to me I HAVE A SET PLS DONT RAISE ME. his turn c/r could easily be to see if im interested in the pot, and i'm pretty good reading bet sizes so i think i can play the river pretty well

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
or to induce a bluff

[/ QUOTE ]


note that he had less than $400 to start the hand so there's a better than average chance that he's bad. and his screenname suggests he might have downs syndrome

[/ QUOTE ]
If he's bad, he doesn't know yet what to do if raised.

[/ QUOTE ]


i agree, but the question is does he talk himself into calling, or does he decide i have to have a flush?

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

most likely talks himself into calling

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

Fold, he probably bet this amount bec he doesnt think he can get more from you with the scary spade there. Also, since you raised preflop and didnt bet the flop he most probably will not think you have a flush.

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

turn fold>river fold

and i wouldn't push. he's probably got a better hand and as donkish as his line is trying to make him fold tp+ just isn't a good idea.

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
turn fold>river fold


[/ QUOTE ]

Folding the turn is tempting but bad. We are behind his range, but not by a ton, and are calling 37 in a 175 pot closing the action. There are too many draws that could raise us here, and our hand is decently disguised after the flop check.

On the river, my standard is to call this, but I can certainly see folding some of the time. I wouldn't shove without a better read, as many players at these limits get stubborn with marginal hands in situations like this, especially with the line you took.

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
turn fold>river fold


[/ QUOTE ]

Folding the turn is tempting but bad. We are behind his range, but not by a ton, and are calling 37 in a 175 pot closing the action. There are too many draws that could raise us here, and our hand is decently disguised after the flop check.

On the river, my standard is to call this, but I can certainly see folding some of the time. I wouldn't shove without a better read, as many players at these limits get stubborn with marginal hands in situations like this, especially with the line you took.

[/ QUOTE ]

this turn raise is almost never a draw. i'm not totally against a call/call line here, but calling this turn to fold to a smallish river bet is silly.

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

I insta call river. Am I horrible?

Mark

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

why no CB with position?

I would call the river. This donk probably thinks A5 is the nuts here since you played your ace so soft.

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

I think josh is actually right that anyone with "guns" in there screename really sucks bad.

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
turn fold>river fold


[/ QUOTE ]

Folding the turn is tempting but bad. We are behind his range, but not by a ton, and are calling 37 in a 175 pot closing the action. There are too many draws that could raise us here, and our hand is decently disguised after the flop check.

On the river, my standard is to call this, but I can certainly see folding some of the time. I wouldn't shove without a better read, as many players at these limits get stubborn with marginal hands in situations like this, especially with the line you took.

[/ QUOTE ]

this turn raise is almost never a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hands that made an open ended straight draw on this turn (granted only TJ is likely): TJ, T8, T6. And although it's unlikely, we can't rule out a flush draw. This is 2/4 NL and we don't have reads, so the donk factor here is significant.

His raise size may suggest he doesn't have a draw, but it certainly doesn't rule it out. And all this is mitigated by the odds we are getting.

[ QUOTE ]
i'm not totally against a call/call line here, but calling this turn to fold to a smallish river bet is silly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you most of the time, except that it sounds like OP in this hand got a more specific read that he didn't predict on the turn, with the river bet size. Using this new intuition/whatever he was able to fold to the river bet. This line is not inconsistent if you gain new information on the hand on the river, and this extra info allows you to fold.

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

He bets that much to fold to a raise. He then realizes he might of induced a bluff or something andn talks himself into a call.

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

I have gotten called many times by raising in spots like this... now I override logic with empiricism.

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I insta call river. Am I horrible?

Mark

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah wtf he shows up with A6 here lol.

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
He bets that much to fold to a raise. He then realizes he might of induced a bluff or something andn talks himself into a call.

[/ QUOTE ]
I find this to be a true more often than I'd expect, there like "zomg, hes jumping on my weakness", and I'm like TPGK ship it.

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

[ QUOTE ]
or to induce a bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

Is Stars 2/4 that advanced?

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

Raising this river is the worst action against somebody who gives us plenty of reason to believe he is a donk. I would call expecting to see Ax- often enough.

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

i've seen this line so many times from donkeys with AT

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

MAYBE I SHOULD VALUE BLUFF?!?!?!?! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: hes betting this so he can fold to a raise right?
 

please don't raise this donk on the river
call>fold>raise