KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

POKERSTARS GAME #10370093196: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($10/$20) - 2007/06/10 - 17:02:45 (ET)
Table 'Palinurus IV' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: supernova9 ($2000 in chips)
Seat 2: kurosh ($848 in chips)
Seat 3: redargoe ($2288 in chips)
Seat 5: CrAbLaR ($2373 in chips)
redargoe: posts small blind $10
CrAbLaR: posts big blind $20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CrAbLaR [Kd Jd]
supernova9: raises $40 to $60
kurosh: folds
redargoe: folds
CrAbLaR: calls $40
*** FLOP *** [Qs 9h 3c]
CrAbLaR: checks
supernova9: bets $100
CrAbLaR: raises $200 to $300
supernova9: calls $200
*** TURN *** [Qs 9h 3c] [Kh]
CrAbLaR: checks
supernova9: bets $500

Ansky is a very good reg, pretty aggro and incredibly stubborn, but I don't think he ever bets the turn here with a lone pair...can I just dump it? If I call, am I always calling riv?

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

maybe he has K3? wouldn't that be sweet irony.

Post deleted by Mat Sklansky
 

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

this is sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo flow dependent

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

flop + turn seems to indicate that you are beat, unless he's got your hand

edit: or KT

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

he's prolly checkin behind the turn with KJ or KT

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo flow dependent

[/ QUOTE ]

Are any close decisions not flow or player dependent?

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo flow dependent

[/ QUOTE ]

Are any close decisions not flow or player dependent?

[/ QUOTE ]

Say you have one of these 'it depends' moments ( You feel dude is likely to be making a move etc)

Is there anyway to analyze it after the fact or is just a matter of being right or wrong THAT time?

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

why'd you pussy out on the turn crablarrrrrrrrr?

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo flow dependent

[/ QUOTE ]

Are any close decisions not flow or player dependent?

[/ QUOTE ]

Say you have one of these 'it depends' moments ( You feel dude is likely to be making a move etc)

Is there anyway to analyze it after the fact or is just a matter of being right or wrong THAT time?

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, of course there are decisions that are not flow or player dependent. I mean, some are so clear cut that it would take ridiculous conditions to change the "correct" or "best" answer.

Of course you can analyze the hand afterwards. Sometimes, after looking at all the factors, you decide "this factor was stronger and I didn't make it contribute to my decision as much as it should have." Other times, you say "well, I still like my play, and I'm actually not sure how much I should have factored this in."

However, in almost all cases you will know the meta at the moment better at the exact time of the decisions. Hence, I could say that I would CF this vs Ansky sometimes, or CC the turn and CF the river sometimes, or lead-call the turn, or anything, based upon how I think he will react based on the hands in the immediate past.

I can definitely see a dynamic where I bet the turn for value and call a shove; or bet the turn for value and shove the river for value. I just don't think that metagame exists between these two.

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
he's prolly checkin behind the turn with KJ or KT

[/ QUOTE ]

this is definitely not going to always be the case

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

pretty standard fold against this type of player imo, he doesn't bet one pair hands here most of the time, there are many two pair+ hands here on this board which he has or he has nothing. And against this type of player, he doesn't have nothing

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

fold, he has 10 j

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

yea i think this is a fold, too. though your hand does look weak, I don't think he'd be betting this turn too thinly, as a matter of pot control. and if he doesnt have a better made hand than you already, he's drawing live enough to check behind and try to get there rather than turn it into a semibluff and risk playing for stacks while pretty far behind.

also, if you just call, its really hard for you to do anything on the river most of the time, especially when oop. a little of the ol' implied threat, if you will. and you're not deep enough to bluff scare cards.

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

Maybe this will help:

Anksy aggression factors and vpip ranges:
http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/9321/ptjunevy9.png
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...page=0&vc=1

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

that doesn't tell me anything except that I'm jealous of ansky

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
that doesn't tell me anything except that I'm jealous of ansky

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo flow dependent

[/ QUOTE ]

Are any close decisions not flow or player dependent?

[/ QUOTE ]

Say you have one of these 'it depends' moments ( You feel dude is likely to be making a move etc)

Is there anyway to analyze it after the fact or is just a matter of being right or wrong THAT time?

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, of course there are decisions that are not flow or player dependent. I mean, some are so clear cut that it would take ridiculous conditions to change the "correct" or "best" answer.

Of course you can analyze the hand afterwards. Sometimes, after looking at all the factors, you decide "this factor was stronger and I didn't make it contribute to my decision as much as it should have." Other times, you say "well, I still like my play, and I'm actually not sure how much I should have factored this in."

However, in almost all cases you will know the meta at the moment better at the exact time of the decisions. Hence, I could say that I would CF this vs Ansky sometimes, or CC the turn and CF the river sometimes, or lead-call the turn, or anything, based upon how I think he will react based on the hands in the immediate past.

I can definitely see a dynamic where I bet the turn for value and call a shove; or bet the turn for value and shove the river for value. I just don't think that metagame exists between these two.

[/ QUOTE ]

for the record I was thinking more along the line of calling river cr, or calling a 4 bet AIPF light or something.

Been on my mind and hadn't really seen a spot to post about it.

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

[ QUOTE ]
why'd you pussy out on the turn crablarrrrrrrrr?

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

i dont really think if we bet the turn he plays with many hands that are worse than us, i think c/f or c/c are much better plays depending on how the game is going

Re: KJ with Ansky 10/20
 

It's weak but I like folding...I'd say he's betting nothing less than 2pair on this turn IMO just because the possibility of you double c/r him with set, JT, etc; he'd want pot control on a scare card if it didn't help him after this flop action. As played I think folding is best... I still woulda bet/folded turn for like $500 after c/r flop.