Trouble with big pots.
 

This is my first time in the psychology forum, and I find it very interesting so far. Hopefully someone can offer me some insight.

I'm a generally winning on-line player, though since UIGEA, my profits have been way down. One big problem I seem to be having is getting stacked when I shouldn't. I tend to go all in with hands that I shouldn't, either bluffing at a pot or thinking "this guy can't possibly have...", even though it seems like the right play at the time. PT shows my won $ at sd to be a very consistent 47 or so % for both pre and post UIGEA, for whatever that's worth.

Is there any way to fix this short of just not being a moron?

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

Variance

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

I don't think it's just varience. More likely that you're playing against more skilled players since the casual players have shifted to live games.

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Variance

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't looking for an explanation, I was hoping to get some general advice on how to avoid getting involved in big pots when I'm behind. But thanks for your insight.

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Variance

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't looking for an explanation, I was hoping to get some general advice on how to avoid getting involved in big pots when I'm behind. But thanks for your insight.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pit that many people fall into is overplaying top pair good kicker. It's not that great a hand against a lot of action and knowing when to release is going to save you and your hair. This is where your hand reading skills are going to come into play a lot.

Another would be failing to create difficult decisions for your opponents on every hand you are involved in. You should always be thinking about what a particular opponent thinks of you based on your previous plays and how best to win the pot right there. There's nothing wrong with folding potential second best hands, especially if you have a feeling you are going to have to pay a lot to see the showdown. For all intensive purposes, it may make you money on a hand later on when you do have a strong holding.

Last but not least, the stakes and the sophistication of the opponent you are up against should determine the best strategy at any given moment. If you aren't sure about your particular opponent, then you should avoid big pots with them. If you cannot avoid big pots with them, you should find another table where you can get involved in big pots. This is probably the toughest thing to do mentally, but the easiest thing to do online where you can bounce around at will.

My two cents.

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

if it's not just variance, and you are experiencing this over a significant sample size, though that would seem difficult since 10k "big pots" takes a while, then you most likely have some leaks in your game. start here and keep reading after you're finished.

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

You're probably not building your pots when you hit the flop hard. One thing I've learned is that overbetting big hands is hugely profitbale.

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

[ QUOTE ]
The pit that many people fall into is overplaying top pair good kicker. It's not that great a hand against a lot of action and knowing when to release is going to save you and your hair. This is where your hand reading skills are going to come into play a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think this was a good observation. Looking at my AKo numbers, I see that since UIGEA, I have played AKs to -.02 BB/hand. That's clearly a hole.

[ QUOTE ]
Another would be failing to create difficult decisions for your opponents on every hand you are involved in. You should always be thinking about what a particular opponent thinks of you based on your previous plays and how best to win the pot right there. There's nothing wrong with folding potential second best hands, especially if you have a feeling you are going to have to pay a lot to see the showdown. For all intensive purposes, it may make you money on a hand later on when you do have a strong holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't quite figured out how to do this yet. I do think about what the other player thinks of me but it seems like this gets me into trouble as often as not, especially in a big pot. For example, say I have raised in a large percentage of the previous few hands, and I get QQ on the next hand. I raise, and someone reraises. I think 'ok, this guy has seen me raise a bunch, and probably thinks im full of crap, and is reraising me with a less than stellar hand,' so I reraise big, maybe all in, and get called by AA, KK, or AK, which I know from experience is what 80% of all reraisers at this level have, and I get clobbered.

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

[ QUOTE ]
if it's not just variance, and you are experiencing this over a significant sample size, though that would seem difficult since 10k "big pots" takes a while, then you most likely have some leaks in your game. start here and keep reading after you're finished.

[/ QUOTE ]


Amazing post. Thanks very much for pointing it out. Also, feel free to comment on the questions I added to it. I hope to owe you bigtime one day for this.

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Variance

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't looking for an explanation, I was hoping to get some general advice on how to avoid getting involved in big pots when I'm behind. But thanks for your insight.

[/ QUOTE ]
check.

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if it's not just variance, and you are experiencing this over a significant sample size, though that would seem difficult since 10k "big pots" takes a while, then you most likely have some leaks in your game. start here and keep reading after you're finished.

[/ QUOTE ]


Amazing post. Thanks very much for pointing it out. Also, feel free to comment on the questions I added to it. I hope to owe you bigtime one day for this.

[/ QUOTE ]

i guess the main thing I would say is that if you find yourself consistently calling off or raising all your chips in pots when you are drawing thin, the problem likely resides in your hand reading ability. You should post relevant hands in the appropriate twoplustwo forum and make sure to include your thought process and your estimation of your opponents range prior to your all the chips decision.

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

pokerho,

i think the issue is that the only constant in the poker world is change. plays that work now might fail miserably in seemingly similar situations six months from now. the games are changing, the opponents are changing, etc. sometimes a particular line or tactic starts to become popular, and take on a new meaning.

from your description, it sounds like you are failing to adjust your play appropriately for the situation. many otherwise excellent players succumb to this as well. that's why there always seems to be a new hot poker phenom every few months. for a particular time, they seem to be unbeatable. but then either they run into an opponent whose style seems poised to counter their style appropriately or their current opponents learn to adjust their play, and the hot phenom fails to re-adapt. soon they are replaced by another hot phenom.

think through all of your hands -- not just big pots, but also small and medium pots -- and see where you went wrong. think about what adjustments you need to make to avoid them. for example, if your bluffs are working less and getting called down by weak holdings, you should play more legitimate holdings the same way, and make thinner value bets in these situations. also, you might consider calling calling if the situations are reversed. if a particular opponent seems to be giving you trouble, think about why. if you see someone winning, but their style just seems wrong, think about their play more carefully. you may find that their wrong style is actually correct. one example that i can think of from a long while back is in the way ted forrest played seven card stud. he made many seemingly unorthodoxed decisions, but seemed to come out a consistent winner.

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

Don't blow up pots with marginal hands.

Also, really take time to analyze before making a huge bet or call. Can you honestly tell yourself you've thought through the hand? Really analyze the pot size, compared to the villains range.

Most sites have a time bank, if you need extra time, take it before making a decision. With a 60 sec time bank, you might even have time to poker stove it before making your decision. i.e. compare his range to your hand and the board, look at your equity in the hand compared to the size of the pot and go from there.

The math won't be wrong, maybe take some of the feel out of the equation. If you're having a tough time, just reduce it down to math. But be honest with yourself when analyzing the villain's range. Don't include worthless hands, just to bump your equity enough to make a call, if you know there is no way the villain would have a given hand.

Basically, take your time. Do a full analysis, and do the math!

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

I haven't quite figured out how to do this yet. I do think about what the other player thinks of me but it seems like this gets me into trouble as often as not, especially in a big pot. For example, say I have raised in a large percentage of the previous few hands, and I get QQ on the next hand. I raise, and someone reraises. I think 'ok, this guy has seen me raise a bunch, and probably thinks im full of crap, and is reraising me with a less than stellar hand,' so I reraise big, maybe all in, and get called by AA, KK, or AK, which I know from experience is what 80% of all reraisers at this level have, and I get clobbered.

[/ QUOTE ]


I do the oposit with qs preflop after betting a bunch of hands preflop. I just limp in and and hope to make others think i limp with strong hands a bet trash, so as to get my kk and aa called or reraised with 2nd rate hands preflop.

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

jon1000s reference to the big PT post changed my game alot - or so I thought. It seemed my biggest problem was not enough aggressiveness, even though I considered myself to be pretty aggressive. Anyway, changing my preflop play a little bit seemed to fix most of the problems (I played 1000 hands pretty much right after I read that post a couple times) and even given the small sample size, it seemed to be getting me where I should be.

Interestingly, here we are two weeks later, and I'm reviewing my sessions and I find I'm right back where I was stat wise. Why is it so hard to maintain preflop aggressiveness?

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

I think the tables are "turn and river" tighter than pre legislation. In other words, You may have had a good instinctive feel for how to build a pot with and when to show down TPTK that is now completely incorrect now that there are far more nut-peddlers per capita.

Re: Trouble with big pots.
 

Keep playing - if you were a winning player b4 then you probably still are.

Variance takes a while to outrun at certain times!