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With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
Early in the Party 500k. I have no reads. All stacks are around 5000. UTG+1 opens to 170 (30/60), next to act calls, and I raise to 500 in middle position with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (Remember I have the king of clubs). Folds around to them they both call.
Flop: (1500 ish) A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Checks to me I bet 1000. UTG folds, next guy calls. Turn (3500 ish) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] , he checks, I check behind. River (still 3500 ish) offsuit Q. He bets 2000. I fold. My thoughts on the hand to come... In the mean time, discuss! |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
how much do you have left if you call and lose?
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Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
Do I have to do the trivially simple arithmetic involved as well?
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Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
I don't like the check behind on the turn at all.
Fire another bet, and check behind on the river if you don't hit your flush. |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the check behind on the turn at all. Fire another bet, and check behind on the river if you don't hit your flush. [/ QUOTE ] the check behind will certainly induce a river bluff from a lot of people |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
I haven't been playing the larger buyin tourneys that much, but I would certainly think that by not betting the turn, you invite the guy to either take a shot at you with nothing, or to attempt what he would think is a value bet with most med-high Pocket Pairs, a worse A or a Q if he hit that. by betting the turn, can't you better decide what he has. It appears that by his cold call, then 2 more calls you deduce he somehow beats TPTK, and that is just not a deduction I could make, especially not readless.
I am looking forward to your thoughts on the hand. C-Dog |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
i think i'm pushing the turn. and if you check behind, i think you ahve to call the river bet.
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Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
Here, perhaps this will stimulate discussion.
The most obvious range for the villain on the turn is: Either, an ace with a worse kicker, a flush/set/ 2 pair. Given the stack sizes, the fact that I have the king of clubs, and the fact that I'm in position, define the best way to maximize against those hands. |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
I agree with ZBTHorton's / shag's comments - bet the turn. If you don't bet the turn - then call the river.
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Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
[ QUOTE ]
you invite the guy to either take a shot at you with nothing [/ QUOTE ] How would he find his way to the river with "nothing?" |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
Dude, this is Party. You have TPTK. Stacks aren't really that deep. These donks will never fold top pair, or even middle pair half the time. I probably just bet the turn.
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Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
To everyone:
This is going to come off as very pretentious, and I will sound like a big [censored], but I'm going to say it anyway. I am not a random donk with 4 posts that comes in with my results oriented thinking asking for generic hand help. I am attempting to generate a discussion about the possible ways to maximize against the most obvious hand ranges that we can come up with for the villain. Exit, you know that I value your advice in any form, even generic form. But I ask that you go a little further than: "i think i'm pushing the turn. and if you check behind, i think you ahve to call the river bet." While this would suffice for a lot of people who post hands where they simply want to be told what to do, this will not suffice for me. To all who say once I check the turn, I'm sort of obligated to call the river: Normally I would agree with you that when you check behind with top pair, you should be calling the river bet because by checking you are inducing bluffs. However, in this spot you'd be pretty hard pressed to think of a hand that he could possibly have by the river that would bluff. A flush draw got there on the turn, and there are no straight draws possible (aside from something like 46 or whatever). Because there are no missed draws, and he could not have been floating with junk OOP, there are almost no possible hands that this guy could have that would bluff the river... UNLESS, he is a total moron donkey (which he very well could be). If you think this is the case often enough, then state that. However, if we give our opponent credit at least for having a human brain, than you can find almost 0 hands that would bluff the river. As for whether he could be value betting with a worse hand: I do not think so. AT, AJ are pretty slim possibilities, and a river bet has very little value with those hands. On the river, I thought to myself: I can only beat a bluff. Check/call flop, check turn, lead river is so often the betting pattern for a bluff, so I thought I was going to call. Then I realized there were almost no possible bluffing hands. After this I asked myself if he could be value betting any worse hands? I figured most likely not, so I folded. |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
[ QUOTE ]
Dude, this is Party. You have TPTK. Stacks aren't really that deep. These donks will never fold top pair, or even middle pair half the time. I probably just bet the turn. [/ QUOTE ] I agree, sort of. My cash game play has definitely been affecting my tournament play lately, so I have been folding top pair more often. |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
The trouble with betting the turn here is what if villain c/r all in? What's the plan there? Those that are advocating betting the turn seem to think that the sequence, from the turn on, will go: Check/bet/call...check Is that really this likely on this board? |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
The stack sizes make it so I'm comitted to calling a turn push if I bet.
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Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
I really hate betting the turn here. What worse hand calls? What better hands fold? Basically a bet only gets money from Acx and you'll get that on the river anyways. Now to the river, I call without thinking about it. But then you want me to think, so...
Guy cold calls pf and then calls again. Range: Any pair, bunch of suited connectors (less of these than pairs, probably only the better ones) and maybe AJ/AQ, KQ. He check-calls a 2/3 pot bet on the flop. Range: set, AQ/AJ, flush draw. Occasionally some kind of JJ hand if he's absolutely awful. Turn changes nothing. River: well, based on his flop hand range, you beat basically AJ. Maybe ATs or QQ-TT if he's awful. There is basically no chance you're ahead here 1/3. Good fold. Steve |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
Ansky,
I checking the turn is standard especially, with the K clubs for pot-control reasons and this is WA/WB situation. Onto the river I think this is really close given that it is pretty hard for the villain to make it here without at least a pair. But I though before the river that villains mosty likely hands were Aq, Aj, At. For him to have a large range of flush possibilities he would need to be pretty loose pre-flop so that expands his hand range as well. In a cash game this can be a fold against some opponents, but against a random tourney donk I'm making this close call. |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
Ansky -
I will do my very best trying to analyze this hand and come up with a range that would warrant a fold from you. In this situation, I think many times the villian who cold called 2 raises (I presume) is going to show you a set of queens made on the turn, or a suited AQ of clubs for the flush, or an offsuit AQ for 2 pair, and a few SCs. TPTK is not a hand you want to play for your entire stack, in a deep stack tournament, regardless of whether or not they are donks...this just opens the probability that you're beat by a vast array of hands. A true donk will call here with 33+ and could very well have made a smaller set. I think folding when you did is a good option. I just don't want to find out if the LAG villian checked his flush, set, 2 pair on the turn. There are a myriad of hands that smoke you right now. A flush seems very present, he checks it on the turn, hoping you bet your ace, you check behind, the queen comes off, now he's figuring you may have made 2 pair, he's leading out, looking for a raise. This is how I interpret it, and I think Ansky is dead on with the, "there's really no hand he can bluff with on the river" analysis. |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
Given the preflop I think AQ is more likely than AJ which is WAYYYYYY more likely than AT. Add in the sets and flushes (QJs-98s and maybe QTs) and I don't think calling the river is good.
Steve |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
Checking behind on the turn is standard deep stack poker is it not? The river is a difficult decision but I agree that you're only beating a bluff and it's hard to figure what hands he's bluffing with. I think you're beat here often enough that this is a good laydown.
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Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Dude, this is Party. You have TPTK. Stacks aren't really that deep. These donks will never fold top pair, or even middle pair half the time. I probably just bet the turn. [/ QUOTE ] I agree, sort of. My cash game play has definitely been affecting my tournament play lately, so I have been folding top pair more often. [/ QUOTE ] I can totally relate to you on this. I find myself not giving enough value to top pair in tournaments after playing so many hands at cash games. |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
Hey Ansky,
I think the size of your preflop raise, to about 1/10 of your stacks, obligates you to call on the river. If the pot wasn't so large preflop, my analysis would be a bit different. I don't like pushing the turn, because you would be giving your opponent the right odds to call your preflop raise with any pair, as he would be paying 500 to play for your whole stack of 5000, and I don't think he's going to put you on a flush and fold any hand that's ahead of you, at least not very often. If your opponents are going to call raises preflop of 10% of their stack with AcQc, or Jc10c then you have to pay them something when they make their flush for calling that large a raise preflop and that large a flop bet. By calling the 2000 on the river, your opponent playing any pair for trips value paid 500 preflop to play for roughly 3500 of your chips, 1 in 7 exactly. That's almost but not quite the right odds for them to call preflop, but sometimes you'll have an overpair and will make a higher set, which is why you really want to make about 10X as much as you have to pay to see a flop with any pair. Factor in the possibility that he is on pure bluff, or has KK and is putting you on QQ or JJ, and I think a call makes the most sense. Holdemphile |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
By the way, does anyone know the odds of flopping two pair?
Holdemphile |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
[ QUOTE ]
Early in the Party 500k. I have no reads. All stacks are around 5000. UTG+1 opens to 170 (30/60), next to act calls, and I raise to 500 in middle position with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (Remember I have the king of clubs). Folds around to them they both call. Flop: (1500 ish) A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Checks to me I bet 1000. UTG folds, next guy calls. Turn (3500 ish) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] , he checks, I check behind. River (still 3500 ish) offsuit Q. He bets 2000. I fold. My thoughts on the hand to come... In the mean time, discuss! [/ QUOTE ] This is rigged, you have the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in your hand and it's also on the board. Also, your opponents bet on the river could be him realizing the only way he can win the hand is to bluff at it. I would have bet the turn myself, and called a push on the turn as well. Checking the turn, I'd call the river bet. There's 5,500 in the pot and it's 2K for you to call, seems like a worthwhile investment. Not to mention this is early, and most of the donks out there accumulate chips because they push players like you out of pots like this. |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
Here is my full thinking here, which goes against some people's thoughts.
Preflop, once the villain cold calls, then calls again, I am thinking Any pocket pair JJ and below, AQ-AT, KQs-KJs. As it is still early and there are no reads. people do sattelite into these things. On the flop, You bet 2/3rds and he calls. This would lead me to think AQ-AT, still the pocketpairs, and the KQc or KJc. I would tend not to think set because the pot is large and the board is drawy so I would expect a set to make their move on the flop. On the turn, I would further rule out a set, since the villain would surely not want to check his set here, as the board is really bad for a free card now. He may have made his flush, but you have redraws and I still think you probably have the best hand still. The big problem here is that the pot is out of control and you cannot bet without pot committing, so I would personally push here. On the river, the villain bets 2K of his remaining 3.5K which leads to me think bluff or strong hand begging for a call. I would think bluff more, as I think a strong hand begging for a call would bet more like 1200-1500 giving the nice price to call. I would call this river, maybe that makes me a donk, and I certainly have more to learn, but that is how I would play this. C-Dog |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
[ QUOTE ]
Also, your opponents bet on the river could be him realizing the only way he can win the hand is to bluff at it. [/ QUOTE ] Name a hand that he can have that he could have gotten to the river with. [ QUOTE ] Checking the turn, I'd call the river bet. There's 5,500 in the pot and it's 2K for you to call, seems like a worthwhile investment. [/ QUOTE ] What does this mean? This statement is sort of meaningless. |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
I like this hand, really feels like a pretty poorly played set or AQ. I think a worse ace is highly unlikely. I hope your plan was to stick it in if checked to on the river.
I don't like your small reraise preflop. I think the strong play with stacks this deep is to flat call. If you do reraise, reraise more (700ish feels right). You are just asking to lose your pants here with that preflop play. Your reverse implied odds are going to be high, regardless of your postflop skill. But overall, I like your line. I think a turn check is much better then a bet... You are either looking at someone against you with 2-3 outs, or you are crushed. Against the right players, checking here will save you your stack. Against the wrong player, (a crazy nut like me who might call your flop bet with nothing), you need to just maximize your value versus worst hands... and not fold [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]. -Jason |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
[ QUOTE ]
To everyone: This is going to come off as very pretentious, and I will sound like a big [censored], but I'm going to say it anyway. I am not a random donk with 4 posts that comes in with my results oriented thinking asking for generic hand help. I am attempting to generate a discussion about the possible ways to maximize against the most obvious hand ranges that we can come up with for the villain. Exit, you know that I value your advice in any form, even generic form. But I ask that you go a little further than: "i think i'm pushing the turn. and if you check behind, i think you ahve to call the river bet." While this would suffice for a lot of people who post hands where they simply want to be told what to do, this will not suffice for me. To all who say once I check the turn, I'm sort of obligated to call the river: Normally I would agree with you that when you check behind with top pair, you should be calling the river bet because by checking you are inducing bluffs. However, in this spot you'd be pretty hard pressed to think of a hand that he could possibly have by the river that would bluff. A flush draw got there on the turn, and there are no straight draws possible (aside from something like 46 or whatever). Because there are no missed draws, and he could not have been floating with junk OOP, there are almost no possible hands that this guy could have that would bluff the river... UNLESS, he is a total moron donkey (which he very well could be). If you think this is the case often enough, then state that. However, if we give our opponent credit at least for having a human brain, than you can find almost 0 hands that would bluff the river. As for whether he could be value betting with a worse hand: I do not think so. AT, AJ are pretty slim possibilities, and a river bet has very little value with those hands. On the river, I thought to myself: I can only beat a bluff. Check/call flop, check turn, lead river is so often the betting pattern for a bluff, so I thought I was going to call. Then I realized there were almost no possible bluffing hands. After this I asked myself if he could be value betting any worse hands? I figured most likely not, so I folded. [/ QUOTE ] Ansky, I read this after I made my post. In short, you are really improving. This is a really good thought process. You sould like a no limit player to me. -Jason |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
[ QUOTE ]
Name a hand that he can have that he could have gotten to the river with. [/ QUOTE ] Well, let's look at it this way: UTG raises roughly 3x the BB, he cold-calls the raise and you come over the top and make it 500 to go. His hand range can be so big, because it's early in a tournament. He could be on a smallish pocket pair, or an A/x type hand, etc. If he's got Q/Q, K/K or A/A you would expect a re-raise. A/K would likely also re-raise. Because there's an Ace on the flop and in your hand, it's less likely that he has one himself, although it's not impossible. All I can deduce is that this guy is a typical early-tournament donkey, and I won't likely be giving him credit for a hand. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Checking the turn, I'd call the river bet. There's 5,500 in the pot and it's 2K for you to call, seems like a worthwhile investment. [/ QUOTE ] What does this mean? This statement is sort of meaningless. [/ QUOTE ] Well, I don't advocate checking the turn. You likely have the best hand, and you have a very strong draw as well. The river Queen isn't a great card for you, but it's not awful. You may have induced your opponent to bluff at the pot, since you checked the turn. I see this a lot with the fish early in a tournament, it's how they accumulate large chip stacks early, because they just bet with nothing or missed draws or terrible hands, and good players lay down to them. They build huge stacks early and then usually lose it all in the middle game when they continue to bluff too much. I'd want to accumulate chips here, and this pot has enough in it, and my hand is strong enough, that I'm going to call that bet. If you lose, well, you're down but not out. I don't mind taking the risk in this spot. In addition, his bet of 2K means he leaves himself with some chips if you come over the top (if he is indeed bluffing). His bet is a bit too large to be a value bet, in my opinion. I would expect a smaller, milking bet, if he was a thinking opponent. A bet that we can't help but to call. From his point of view, he checked on the flop (if he had hit something or had a draw, oftentimes they'll come out firing). You made a good sized bet, perhaps large enough to make him think you didn't want a call. He then checks the turn and you check, which makes him believe you might've whiffed the flop and were hoping to take it down with your original bet. His river 2K bet looks like a "hey, I'm betting 2K cause I think you are weak and will fold, but I'm leaving myself some chips just in case I'm wrong". |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
I like OPs line. Very smart! However I think its wrong. As a default play I always assume a high probabilty to the chance that my opponents could be braindead early in a online tourny. Not a very fun spot to be in on the river, but im calling. Simple because the turn check WILL induce a bluff/bet from alot of hands which you beat. Which hands? well Ax, any pocket pair, 2 random cards.. and if you induce a bluff you have to call. I would push the turn expecting to get called by a worse hand. |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
[ QUOTE ]
Hey Ansky, I think the size of your preflop raise, to about 1/10 of your stacks, obligates you to call on the river. If the pot wasn't so large preflop, my analysis would be a bit different. I don't like pushing the turn, because you would be giving your opponent the right odds to call your preflop raise with any pair, as he would be paying 500 to play for your whole stack of 5000, and I don't think he's going to put you on a flush and fold any hand that's ahead of you, at least not very often. If your opponents are going to call raises preflop of 10% of their stack with AcQc, or Jc10c then you have to pay them something when they make their flush for calling that large a raise preflop and that large a flop bet. By calling the 2000 on the river, your opponent playing any pair for trips value paid 500 preflop to play for roughly 3500 of your chips, 1 in 7 exactly. That's almost but not quite the right odds for them to call preflop, but sometimes you'll have an overpair and will make a higher set, which is why you really want to make about 10X as much as you have to pay to see a flop with any pair. Factor in the possibility that he is on pure bluff, or has KK and is putting you on QQ or JJ, and I think a call makes the most sense. Holdemphile [/ QUOTE ] I'm trying to figure out the best way to say this... You logic is step by step in the reverse direction. You started with the end result and worked back to the beginning. It is a sound way to maintain consistent metagame, but in this case I think it's a bit silly. Overall though, it does help me think about this situation as a whole better, and how best to control my opponents +EV range when considering FTOP. |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
yea my bad, i'm just used to not defending my [censored] anymore.
i just felt like AJ (and worse) and non-setted PP's would call the flop often enough, that it would be a call on the end. I dunno really, i think it's probably close.. you only need to be good a bit more than 25% it should be close to that. Plus, calling is fun. |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
[ QUOTE ]
Hey Ansky, I think the size of your preflop raise, to about 1/10 of your stacks, obligates you to call on the river. If the pot wasn't so large preflop, my analysis would be a bit different. I don't like pushing the turn, because you would be giving your opponent the right odds to call your preflop raise with any pair, as he would be paying 500 to play for your whole stack of 5000, and I don't think he's going to put you on a flush and fold any hand that's ahead of you, at least not very often. If your opponents are going to call raises preflop of 10% of their stack with AcQc, or Jc10c then you have to pay them something when they make their flush for calling that large a raise preflop and that large a flop bet. By calling the 2000 on the river, your opponent playing any pair for trips value paid 500 preflop to play for roughly 3500 of your chips, 1 in 7 exactly. That's almost but not quite the right odds for them to call preflop, but sometimes you'll have an overpair and will make a higher set, which is why you really want to make about 10X as much as you have to pay to see a flop with any pair. Factor in the possibility that he is on pure bluff, or has KK and is putting you on QQ or JJ, and I think a call makes the most sense. Holdemphile [/ QUOTE ] This kind of logic just blew my mind. i'm not saying its bad, just completely not how i think of the game. I never think about my current actions in relation to the odds i gave him preflop. I dont really care/think ebout if he was 'correct to call', i just think about getting money in when i want it in/taking the pot when i can. whatever i'm not making anyn sense |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
I think inducing a bluff and not calling is bad.
You should have bet the turn, and check behind on the river if you were looking for an excuse to fold. |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
I think you played the hand perfectly ansky. i play it the same. betting the turn and getting checkraised is not fun. then i think you are beat on the river. he mighta missed his c/rz on the turn with flopped set or turned flush or have Aq whcih just connected with the river. nh
Matt20 |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
I think I call here because the only possible holding I think villan can hold here that beats you is 2 pair(AQ).
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Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
[ QUOTE ]
Name a hand that he can have that he could have gotten to the river with. [/ QUOTE ] AJ, A10, A9, etc.....especially if he had the Ace of Clubs. |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
The way I see hands like these is as follows:
UTG+1 raises to 30/60, barring no additional reads that could well be AT+, KQ+, 77+. I'd expect him to limp weaker hands. UTG+2 calls, and I'd tighten up the range for him - AJ+, KQ+, 99+. Both of these ranges might be a bit too loose, but I have little respect for party players. Also, with no additional reads, early in the tournament, I think you can EXCLUDE AK and QQ+ for the UTG+2. They see a reraise from you, following their own line of thinking - that means JJ+ and AK. Enter flop. They check to you, you bet, they still think hmm could be QQ or KK or something and they call. Aces can be excluded here I think as they would've reraised preflop. Also 22/33 seems very unlikely. If they had AK here, I'd expect a reraise as well, though I've seen calls there too. And as for flushdraws, in the range I noted there's not much range for a flushdraw... except a hand like AQcc, where again I'd expect AQcc to reraise (and also AJcc and ATcc). KQcc is an impossibility due to obvious reasons. A plain call would be something I'd expect AT-AQ to do, regardless of whether they have Ac. I wouldn't expect a JJ or TT or so to call this bet, and rather just fold to it as they know the ace is spooky. This is why I think I would bet the turn. There is no reason to assume you're behind (yet) from my point of view and you can still expect a call from an ace with T-Qc, and Ac T-Qx. I'd expect a made flush to reraise you here as well, from fear of you having AA and the board pairing. If you get reraised on the turn then you can re-evaluate if it's worth it to you to hang on to the rest of your chips, or to gamble it up for the club on the river / him not having an ace high flush yet. As for your current line, by checking the turn, you present him with the opportunity to bluff. But, as you have already said it's unlikely he's bluffing on this board - that is if he is thinking you're bluffing. If he has a hand like AT / AJ I doubt he would bet it, with it becoming a weak value bet, because you could very well have QQ with Qc, and hit set on river. So he's willing to bet into made flush board, and with the rivered Q, and from all previous analysis I'd say he has AQ or the flush. I'd expect the average party donk just to check/call AJ-AT here thinking you bluffed again with KK. On the other hand, I'm at work and got disrupted thrice during typing this so please point out any logical mistakes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] All of this changes wildly when I get more/less respect for the players at hand, other than "I'm assuming he's a partydonk because i have no reads" |
Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
As a former weak tight I just wanted to add that if I was the villan and caught my flush I would have checked on the turn then I would have bet on the river. Sometimes I see (and understand) people play things exactly the way I would have in the past. Ansky, you played it right.
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Re: With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!
My problem with your line (and I don't think you are necessarily wrong), is that it really comes down to a preflop read.
Lets say, for arguements sake that the guy in the middle decided to call a raise with a decent hand, say A9s. At what point in this hand, do you think that his line doesn't fit this hand? I don't know, I dont think weaker aces are as rare as you are assuming. Regardless, this would be a borderline call, but a call I would probably make. |
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