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-   -   Home run? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=410987)

shaundeeb 05-24-2007 03:19 PM

Home run?
 
I have the perfect hand and perfect spot for this hand from 201r 1a it's 5min till addon period. Plays been tight so I expect big pairs and big hands from all.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG+1 (t2710)
Hero (t7385)
MP2 (t3245)
MP3 (t900)
CO (t2530)
Button (t1790)
SB (t6360)
BB (t2280)
UTG (t8920)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t900</font>, CO calls t900, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t2280</font>, Hero calls t1980, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t3245</font>, CO folds, Hero calls t965.

ItalianFX 05-24-2007 03:34 PM

Re: Home run?
 
What are you trying to do here?

gravycakes 05-24-2007 03:37 PM

Re: Home run?
 
Trying to show us how to blow 1/3rd of our stack with 6 high.

the alex 05-24-2007 03:40 PM

Re: Home run?
 
I open fold and just take my 9k after the break.

Once the BB shoves, you don't have reason to believe MP2 is folding. Right before the add-on, that's a serious 3-bet whether he knows you or not. By calling the 1980, you effectively calling 3k, by this reasoning to win a little under 8k? I don't like it, personally.

shaundeeb 05-24-2007 03:42 PM

Re: Home run?
 
I guess it wasn't clear I wanted this to be multiway hence my call and not isoshove.

WarDekar 05-24-2007 04:01 PM

Re: Home run?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I guess it wasn't clear I wanted this to be multiway hence my call and not isoshove.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got it, and obviously you want as many players in the hand as possible considering if 56s beats an overpair you're most likely beating anyone in the hand.

That said, I don't hhhhhaaaate this, but I don't think I like it either. I definitely make plays similar to this sometimes, especially in RAOs, but I'm not sure on this one. You are getting pretty good odds though and there are sidepots, so maybe it's alright?

Albireo 05-24-2007 04:04 PM

Re: Home run?
 

I wouldn't do it but would love to see the chat after you take their stacks

BarryLyndon 05-24-2007 04:08 PM

Re: Home run?
 
ok, so, it's kinduv OK, but not great, we get it, pot odds, nurture multiway, rebuy add-on, blah blah...post results...sexy time 7h 8h Q flop?

FortunaMaximus 05-24-2007 04:09 PM

Re: Home run?
 
[ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't do it but would love to see the chat after you take their stacks

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm nowhere near a poker client lately, so I don't have an idea on field sizes.

I like this a lot though. It may not be necessary in a 20 r/a. Definitely love it in the 3r or 11r.

WarDekar 05-24-2007 04:12 PM

Re: Home run?
 
If this is a normal rebuy, I like it a lot more.

Since it's a RAO, the play isn't nearly as loose.

If you're like me, you'll sacrifice a little cEV sometimes if it's going to get you a huge stack, and this will definitely give you a big stack and allow you to run over your table post-break. Even if you lose the hand, after adding on you still have a workable stack, so this isn't that bad at all.

the alex 05-24-2007 04:17 PM

Re: Home run?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't do it but would love to see the chat after you take their stacks

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm nowhere near a poker client lately, so I don't have an idea on field sizes.

I like this a lot though. It may not be necessary in a 20 r/a. Definitely love it in the 3r or 11r.

[/ QUOTE ]

The field was like 315 people. There were only about 200-220 left a bit before the add-on, from what I remember.

FortunaMaximus 05-24-2007 04:25 PM

Re: Home run?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't do it but would love to see the chat after you take their stacks

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm nowhere near a poker client lately, so I don't have an idea on field sizes.

I like this a lot though. It may not be necessary in a 20 r/a. Definitely love it in the 3r or 11r.

[/ QUOTE ]

The field was like 315 people. There were only about 200-220 left a bit before the add-on, from what I remember.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks good.

ZJ123 05-24-2007 04:30 PM

Re: Home run?
 
If you like giving away chips this is fine. (thats not to stay i haven't done this). Risk outweighs the Reward etc....

adanthar 05-24-2007 04:41 PM

Re: Home run?
 
or you can just avoid raising 3x into a 9x stack and a bunch of other shorties by open folding PF.

wpr101 05-24-2007 04:41 PM

Re: Home run?
 
I don't understand why we are trying to get in with our money behind.

I was curious so I ran the odds on if we are against 4 other ppl in the hand and they have JJ/QQ/KK/AA precisely. We have about 20% chance to win. AA has about a 38% chance to win.

ItalianFX 05-24-2007 04:43 PM

Re: Home run?
 
shaundeeb, if you won this hand, you know it's just variance. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

shaundeeb 05-24-2007 04:45 PM

Re: Home run?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why we are trying to get in with our money behind.

I was curious so I ran the odds on if we are against 4 other ppl in the hand and they have JJ/QQ/KK/AA precisely. We have about 20% chance to win. AA has about a 38% chance to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

ding someone did some math and it's starting to make more sense the more cards they share the more our EV goes up. This hand is very math heavy I did it quickly at the table and came out roughtly ahead even in some worse case senarios i.e AKhh is out there.

shaundeeb 05-24-2007 04:46 PM

Re: Home run?
 
[ QUOTE ]
shaundeeb, if you won this hand, you know it's just variance. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I lost the hand but I played it correctly which is all that matters ala ToP.

WarDekar 05-24-2007 04:47 PM

Re: Home run?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why we are trying to get in with our money behind.

I was curious so I ran the odds on if we are against 4 other ppl in the hand and they have JJ/QQ/KK/AA precisely. We have about 20% chance to win. AA has about a 38% chance to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

ding someone did some math and it's starting to make more sense the more cards they share the more our EV goes up. This hand is very math heavy I did it quickly at the table and came out roughtly ahead even in some worse case senarios i.e AKhh is out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just about to post the exact same thing Shaun. It's very likely several of these guys are sharing outs, plus the guy that folded, so it's probably higher than 20%. Buuut I still think this is is probably slightly -cEV but if the advantage of getting that big of a stack is worth it for you go for it.

This is an incredibly difficult math problem to actually solve, anyway, because of all the side pots involved.

ZJ123 05-24-2007 04:49 PM

Re: Home run?
 
You need more then 20% equity for this to be profitable.

shaundeeb 05-24-2007 04:51 PM

Re: Home run?
 
[ QUOTE ]
You need more then 20% equity for this to be profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had 25 and they had monsters.

the alex 05-24-2007 05:03 PM

Re: Home run?
 
[ QUOTE ]

Once the BB shoves, you don't have reason to believe MP2 is folding. Right before the add-on, that's a serious 3-bet whether he knows you or not. By calling the 1980, you effectively calling 3k, by this reasoning to win a little under 8k? I don't like it, personally.

[/ QUOTE ]

If your equity is 25%, what am I missing here?

WarDekar 05-24-2007 05:12 PM

Re: Home run?
 
His point was they had monsters, if any of the side pots he was playing for wasn't against a monster his equity was higher, plus the 25% he quoted doesn't even tell us what his equity was on the side-pots.

Even if this particular instance was slightly -cEV, doesn't meant the play wasn't, and as I said earlier the difference in that stack he'll have is quite big if he wins this hand.

Oh and after you raised PF you kinda have to go ahead and call everything else because this is exactly the situation you want with SCs - risking a smaller portion of your stack up against multiple opponents to get a huge stack. This is the ideal situation if you're raising 56s to begin with IMO.

the alex 05-24-2007 05:17 PM

Re: Home run?
 
[ QUOTE ]
His point was they had monsters, if any of the side pots he was playing for wasn't against a monster his equity was higher, plus the 25% he quoted doesn't even tell us what his equity was on the side-pots.

Even if this particular instance was slightly -cEV, doesn't meant the play wasn't, and as I said earlier the difference in that stack he'll have is quite big if he wins this hand.

Oh and after you raised PF you kinda have to go ahead and call everything else because this is exactly the situation you want with SCs - risking a smaller portion of your stack up against multiple opponents to get a huge stack. This is the ideal situation if you're raising 56s to begin with IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see. I don't want Deebers at my table with 16-18k after the break, let alone 18k.

Considering the hands he'd have to hit to rake it in, are the side pots much of an issue?

I'm not being argumentative. Just asking. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

shaundeeb 05-24-2007 05:21 PM

Re: Home run?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Once the BB shoves, you don't have reason to believe MP2 is folding. Right before the add-on, that's a serious 3-bet whether he knows you or not. By calling the 1980, you effectively calling 3k, by this reasoning to win a little under 8k? I don't like it, personally.

[/ QUOTE ]

If your equity is 25%, what am I missing here?

[/ QUOTE ]

pot was like 10k you missing a few stacks.

the alex 05-24-2007 05:38 PM

Re: Home run?
 
[ QUOTE ]


Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t900</font>, CO calls t900, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t2280</font>, Hero calls t1980, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t3245</font>, CO folds, Hero calls t965.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero's open raise- 300
MP2 with shove expectation- 3245
BB- 2280
MP3- 900
CO's dead money- 900

That's 7625 with the 2445 we expect from MP2 and calling the 1980 with that same expectation is effectively calling 2945, no? Are you expecting the CO to cold-call the 900 after a raise/re-raise and call off his stack?

Pudge714 05-24-2007 05:38 PM

Re: Home run?
 
This is math problem just do it. Also Hail Mary, would be better than Home run as a title.

Eagles 05-24-2007 05:41 PM

Re: Home run?
 
Shaun,
Assuming you have no fe what equity do you need to call.

shaundeeb 05-24-2007 06:38 PM

Re: Home run?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t900</font>, CO calls t900, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t2280</font>, Hero calls t1980, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t3245</font>, CO folds, Hero calls t965.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero's open raise- 300
MP2 with shove expectation- 3245
BB- 2280
MP3- 900
CO's dead money- 900

That's 7625 with the 2445 we expect from MP2 and calling the 1980 with that same expectation is effectively calling 2945, no? Are you expecting the CO to cold-call the 900 after a raise/re-raise and call off his stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was at the time.

wpr101 05-25-2007 01:46 AM

Re: Home run?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why we are trying to get in with our money behind.

I was curious so I ran the odds on if we are against 4 other ppl in the hand and they have JJ/QQ/KK/AA precisely. We have about 20% chance to win. AA has about a 38% chance to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

ding someone did some math and it's starting to make more sense the more cards they share the more our EV goes up. This hand is very math heavy I did it quickly at the table and came out roughtly ahead even in some worse case senarios i.e AKhh is out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I still don't like this hand at all though. Yes there will be some rare times where we are up against AK, AK, and KQ, but a lot of times we will not be so fortunate.

Nogatsira 05-25-2007 02:57 AM

Re: Home run?
 
Damn shaun, you are a sicko. I like this play ALOT and if I ever had the guts to do it, then I hope they all got AA/KK/QQ and beat them all in 1 pot to get a huge stack. Must be hilarious

timex 05-25-2007 03:49 AM

Re: Home run?
 
This hand makes me glad that HSMTT was created.

shaundeeb 05-25-2007 01:48 PM

Re: Home run?
 
psh timex its a math problem where this is actually a +EV call and I was against AA KK and AKo.


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