bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

5-handed game in the wee hours, i open K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] utg to 60, button calls and blinds call, 4 to the flop of:

K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

sb, a competent regular with a ~7k stack (i cover), leads for 160. i raise to 460. he 3bets to 1460. i call.

turn A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

he bets 2300, i call.

river 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

he pushes for his last 2960. can i possibly fold this river after calling the turn?

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

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5-handed game in the wee hours, i open K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] utg to 60, button calls and blinds call, 4 to the flop of:

K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

sb, a competent regular with a ~7k stack (i cover), leads for 160. i raise to 460. he 3bets to 1460. i call.

turn A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

he bets 2300, i call.

river 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

he pushes for his last 2960. can i possibly fold this river after calling the turn?

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I'd say no. Getting over 4-1 here when the main draws miss vs this line seems like a trivially easy call, otherwise, what are you calling the turn for?

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

either he's there with a set or he's on the way with a big draw. sometimes he'll luck into Ah8h but so it goes.

if you call turn, call this river.
but i think the time to decide how much you like your hand is the turn. and i think i'd rather shove if you're pretty confident that its good, since that way you make sure to get his whole stack in there if he's on the come, while he might c/f a missed draw if you call (not much FE left with that bet into that pot, unless you too have a whiffed draw).

Post deleted by Mat Sklansky
 

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

Not sure what your table image was at the time but unless it was that of a maniac, his lead and 3bet on the flop out of position screams AK or set (competent regular at 10/20 would be certainly capable of leading into you with a set there knowing you are aggressive and/or have overpair). I guess he can have Ah8h too.

All in all, that is a horrid turn card and I probably fold on the turn without any other reads on villain.

But the way it was played, you pretty much have to call on the river getting such a good price and having the slim possibility of overplayed 6h7h or K5s.

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

how come we stopped putting money in on the flop?

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

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how come we stopped putting money in on the flop?

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because if 350bb's go in on the flop i'm almost never gonna be a big favorite, but i could very well be crushed?

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

this spot is really ugly. I think we need to push or fold on the turn, but I can't really explain why.

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

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because if 350bb's go in on the flop i'm almost never gonna be a big favorite, but i could very well be crushed?


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then you need to shove the turn. and call A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] a cooler.

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

actually i thought about it more and i don't hate folding the turn.

obv i think he has 55 here most of the time.

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

You said he's a competent regular. How often do you think he is leading/3-betting OOP on the flop with worse than AK?

It certainly feels like AK or a set. I would muck on the turn. As played, you probably have to call the river.

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

Mike,

Seems like you beat 67h and lose to everything else. I fold the turn. It feels like a "get it all in on two streets" size bet.

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

hi mike,

ive played with you a few times in the wee hour bellagio games lately and i actually like your line here given generally how the game plays.

I highly doubt villain in this hand has a set given how the action went down unless he likes to donk out often into big fields with strong hands, I think his range is more the likes of K5,K8,85, or Ah8h and 6h7h. I think he is going to show up with 85 here very often given his line.

Although generally your very behind here, with how those short 10-20 games play late at night I think call/call is the best line to induce most of his range which you are ahead of to get his money in. This is all assuming that its the typical 5-6am where everyone is playing pretty loose and gambling bellagio 10-20 game.

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

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how come we stopped putting money in on the flop?

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i agree, we are ahead of pretty much everything but 55 here, if we are planning to call this down i like pushing hard on a 4 bet on the flop to push out some draws or make them pay.

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

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how come we stopped putting money in on the flop?

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i agree, we are ahead of pretty much everything but 55 here, if we are planning to call this down i like pushing hard on a 4 bet on the flop to push out some draws or make them pay.

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I sort of feel this way as well. But the counter point is that we have 350 BB.

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

This is a very marginal spot and you can't really berate yourself for either calling or folding- you need to think about your opponent and think whether you beat him enough times to call here profitably. This may seem like little advice but it's all that can really be given imho in such a tight spot!

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

i fold the turn.

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

mike, I'm in the fold turn camp but think you can also fold the river barring a read. it's awkward and I would hate doing it, but I think chances of 85 and similar playing river like this are small. obv there's the busted draw but it's hard for him to put you on less than two pair and I don't think he's trying to get you to fold for your last 3k.

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

I have to agree with Baluga here. Once that bullet hits the turn you are behind all legitimate hands besides 6h7h or an overplayed 85s. All in on the flop you have most likely worst case scenario of top 2 vs bottom set. But with all hands like 6h7h, Ah8h, etc... the implied odds are there with 5K+ left behind for him to 3bet to 1400+ if it will slow you down with AK, AA, or even K8 (if he could put you on that some how).

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

your not gonna get that much meaningful advice about this exact hand but I'd like to suggest you figure out how you arrived at calling on the turn when there are 2 better options.

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

im sry but no one in htis thread has thrown out the fact that 88 is also in his range as is KK occasionally if hes one of the uber nitty/kinda tricky regs u unearth occasionally at casinos. But not factoring 88 into a range when 350 bets go in is ridiculous

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

Just wondering: would a flop shove get rid of 55? I mean, it's the fourth bet, and he only had $500 invested in the pot and now putting in 7K; if you had the 55 wouldn't you consider folding? Remember Hero is UTG and no reason why he couldn't have KK or 88; would someone really put 350BB into the pot on the flop with a naked one pair even AA?

How would this situation change if there was no flush draw on the flop?

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

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i fold the turn.

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Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

Given his line he has 55 here a large portion of the time. The only hand you really beat is 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and very rarely 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Turn is a sick card as A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] just got there. He most likely doesn't have AK as he didn't re-raise preflop. I would fold turn 70% of time and shove 30%. Once you call turn you must pay him off on river.

Re: bellagio 10-20 deep: top 2 on the flop facing pressure
 

Even if he is capable of 3 betting you on the flop with a draw is he really going to shove on the riv laying you that price after you call 2300 on the turn after the A hits?

-I think that 85 is prob the only hand you can beat.HOwever if i called the turn i would have closed my eyes and called the river bet.

-Are you calling the river shove if a heart, 4, or 9 hits?