Raising AK in small stakes, no foldem holdem games
 

Ok so the small stakes holdem book says that you do not just raise AK to narrow the field, but because it figures to be the best hand out. I understand that you profit from other people's mistakes (calling your raises when dominated in this case), etc. But what I want to ask here is, has anyone actually done the math and simulations to prove that raising drawing hands like AK and AQ in games where 5-6 others will see the flop regardless of the amount of raising is actually profitable? Sure each individual that cold-calls with crap loses money, but it seems the chips just move around the table from donky to donky (occasionally to the guy that actually won with AK) and are lost to the rake over time.

If your at a table full of idiots that are perfectly willing to play the role of a donkey and call you down with middle pair (fairly often one of them catches two pair or trips by the river), then it seems that while they are not profiting for making such idiotic calls individually, you do not profit either since the showdown value of AK is almost useless since someone else is bound to catch something when you miss the flop. And because you will only spike an ace or king 1 out of 3 flops (obviously sometimes you will spike an ace or king and lose anyway to a legitimate hand or one of the donkeys described above).

One of the biggest leaks in my game early on IMHO was from raising hands like AK and representing a big pair after missing the flop (continuation betting, three barrely bluff, whatever you want to call it). Taking an initial stab on the flop, then checking the turn if I thought I was beat or the pot was multi-way seemed to help reduce that leak, but when I stopped raising AK, AQ, etc before the flop, and started mucking on missed flops (unless the pot is laying me odds to draw to 6 outs, possibly more if I have an inside straight draw or backdoor draws). my swings got a lot smaller, and I still pull very decent pots when I don't raise pre-flop and manage to hit the flop.

I want to re-iterate the situation I am describing is when 5+ people are seeing every flop. I still raise AK and other drawing hands in tighter games, even pushing small edges as described in St0xtrader's book like raising with Q5 suited on the button in a six-handed game to steal the blinds.

Im just looking for opinions here. If im smoking crack, I trust many of you will tell me so :)

Thanks in advance,

--Karm

Re: Raising AK in small stakes, no foldem holdem games
 

2,284,399 games 6.672 secs 342,385 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.031% 25.99% 01.07% 593747 24505.08 { AKo }
Hand 1: 14.588% 13.62% 00.98% 311156 22498.08 { random }
Hand 2: 14.599% 13.64% 00.98% 311555 22351.75 { random }
Hand 3: 14.603% 13.64% 00.98% 311601 22403.08 { random }
Hand 4: 14.593% 13.63% 00.99% 311270 22502.58 { random }
Hand 5: 14.586% 13.62% 00.99% 311036 22580.42 { random }

Re: Raising AK in small stakes, no foldem holdem games
 

Is this simulation going to the river, even when a real-life player would know (s)he is not ahead on the flop?

Re: Raising AK in small stakes, no foldem holdem games
 

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Is this simulation going to the river, even when a real-life player would know (s)he is not ahead on the flop?

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Yes. But the fact remains that since you likely hold a significant equity edge vs. all those players, your preflop raise is for value. Also, don't think of AK as being a "drawing hand"--very often you actually hold the best hand preflop.

I suspect that most of your problems with AK, AQ, etc in the past came from putting in too many bets postflop when you missed the board and/or someone else connected harder than you. With the possible exception of free card raises or betting/raising for value with a big draw, get out of the habit of bluffing in a game like this.

Re: Raising AK in small stakes, no foldem holdem games
 

I totally agree with Harv. You are raising for value, but you don't have much value if you miss against 6 random hands (someone has a pair). You should only be aggressive postflop if you miss, when you are HU or threehanded. This of course exludes gutshot draws, and corrosponding free card raises

Re: Raising AK in small stakes, no foldem holdem games
 

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Ok so the small stakes holdem book says that you do not just raise AK to narrow the field, but because it figures to be the best hand out.

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It's probably not the best hand against 4+ opponents, and almost certainly won't be if you don't hit the flop, but it's above average and that's all it has to be. I raise any suited broadways if I think it won't fold people.

Re: Raising AK in small stakes, no foldem holdem games
 

And remember, for this to be profitable over the long run you only have to win one time in five (20%) against 5+ players. It isn't too uncommon to flip heads 4 - 8 consecutive times on a 50% coin so in the short term you could lose a 20% play 15 straight times fairly frequently and still be playing it correct.

Re: Raising AK in small stakes, no foldem holdem games
 

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I totally agree with Harv. You are raising for value, but you don't have much value if you miss against 6 random hands (someone has a pair). You should only be aggressive postflop if you miss, when you are HU or threehanded. This of course exludes gutshot draws, and corrosponding free card raises

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And sometimes you should just fold to 1 bet in early or middle position when you know that you have reverse implied odds. Wild games can be this way. When you know that you are going to have to call multiple bets in the future to see if you spike top pair when someone is likely to hit 33 & 77 or some other crap hand you might want to lay it down early.

When there a few players you sometimes afford to bluff, but only if you think they might fold. Many wild games people won't fold to even a legitimate raise so you have to watch out. I can't remember what the difference is between 5-6 players and 2-3 but you hand strength goes up quite a bit (25% maybe [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]).

Re: Raising AK in small stakes, no foldem holdem games
 

lets pretend you went to the horse races. You were told, that your horse, was going to win 30% of the time.

If that horse was getting 5-1 odds, you would be happy betting it to win again and again. That is what you are doing with AK preflop, betting a horse that is going to win more than its share.

Re: Raising AK in small stakes, no foldem holdem games
 

Karmic, lots of sensible stuff here. raise AK for value pls.

Re: Raising AK in small stakes, no foldem holdem games
 

This is all good stuff ... thank you.

So then I assume most of you feel that the post-flop strategic advantage of not raising AK will not make up for the failure to raise pre-flop? Do most of you feel it should be raised every time or should I mix it up? maybe raise 2/3 times instead?

Lastly, many books I have read say you should bet the flop regardless of whether you hit or miss ... does everyone agree that is a sound strategy at this limit? Should I ...


1) bet the flop and check the turn if I still miss?
2) go for the full three-barrel bluff unless I encounter resistance?
3) timidly check the flop when I miss?

If I opt for #3, then I assume it might be wise to check-raise the flop when I have a large pocket pair or flop a set to encourage people to fear my checks but then again, I also realize there are less observant opponents at this level.

Thanks again,

--Karm

Re: Raising AK in small stakes, no foldem holdem games
 

Check this out. Tyler cracker posted this on a thread I recently stared on overcards that has great stuff to read and reread:

http://poker.wikia.com/wiki/MicroLimitLibrary#Overcards

Re: Raising AK in small stakes, no foldem holdem games
 

You lose no "post-flop strategic advantage" by raising. As long as you play post-flop correctly, the bets put in preflop is money earned in a vacuum. Raise it preflop. Not 2/3 of the time. Every time. If you don't get it, please revisit the concepts of raising for value and long-run profits.

When you miss, you usually want to continue betting if:
1. It is unlikely you will be check raised.(The table is passive)
2. It is likely that you can buy a free card on the turn. (People won't donk into you)
3. It is likely that you need that free card because the board is dry. (Less likely that you are charging draws or overs)
4. There are few people in the pot and a c-bet can thin the field or potentially allow you to take it down on the turn. (usually 2-4 people)

Re: Raising AK in small stakes, no foldem holdem games
 

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Do most of you feel it should be raised every time or should I mix it up? maybe raise 2/3 times instead?

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Why on earth would you want to do that?

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Lastly, many books I have read say you should bet the flop regardless of whether you hit or miss ...

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I doubt any book says that.