Iffy at Best?
 

8/16 6-MAX O8: BB is Jim McManus(supposed FTP "pro") who is a total fish, stats like 38/3/1.1 for those who use PTO. Button is igotskillz, a bigger fish, 46/7/.86. UTG is Scuba332, who I don't have a good read on, but stats o 40/22/1.23 and I know hes not too good either.

the game is 4-handed right now.

UTG limps, button limps, I complete in the SB with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], BB checks, 4 to the flop.

FLOP: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet, BB Raises, UTG folds, button 3-bets, I scratch my head and call, BB calls.

TURN: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6.5BB's)

I check, BB checks, Button bets, I call, BB calls.

RIVER: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9.5 BBs)

I check, BB checks, Button bets, I scratch my head and think, an iffy call at best, & call, BB folds.


Obviously there are a few critical points in this hand and my good reads of my opponents plays a key factor. I know neither player is likely to push a lo-only hand or a lo-draw hard, and for this reason I decide to stay around after the turn makes a lo possible. On the flop there is no way I fold a big drawing hand like this with 2nd nut flush draw agains these monkeys - they will often raise with 3rd, 4th, 35th nut draws. These type players also will chase the ass end gutshot straight to the river all the time. So I'd like some feedback on calling 2 cold back to me on the flop, and my river call getting 10.5:1 for a rare chance at a scoop, or way worse odds for 1/2 the pot. You all just avoid posting "play two-way hands"

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

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there is no way I fold a big drawing hand like this with 2nd nut flush draw

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To me second nut flush draw on a board with two low cards is not a big draw - it is a big dog. You are likely drawing for half the pot if you are not drawing dead. I would not have lead at the flop and I would certainly fold as opposed to calling two more bets cold.

- chaos

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

But he has the J for a str8 to, as well as tp. Why would the nut flush draw, be raising (and risking folds) rather than keeping players in the pot? If 2 of them have a set, then there's less risk of the board pairing (and you have 1 Queen).

There's already 10bb in the pot, with the 'decent' player having folded. One of them could easily have a worse Flush draw plus some piece of that flop. The OP reckons if they had the Lo draw, they'd have been calling rather than raising. They'll probably call bets when your hand is made, so it's probably marginal. In the circumstances, with the BB not calling on the river, the nut flush draw is less likely, as the player would probably look up the button with a Lo, or two pair and it's hard to construct hands, but some kind of trashy medium flush wrap which fit the play.

Against solid players, who are unlikely to pay off, I think you have a clear answer to your flop bet question.

But against poor players, I've lots of sympathy with the flop call, sometimes you see the turn checked, because they were actually just trying to bluff you out, after all you're probably folding rather often compared to them.

On the river, well what are you beating? A J9 str8 got home, and you're still behind to a set. I'd be surprised if the button was re-re-raising on just top two pair. Without catching your str8 or flush, I doubt you have the button beaten, even if neither player has a Lo.

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

In a 4-handed game I don't think you can afford to discount the 2nd nut flush draw much. Also hero has top pair with a bunch of outs to make top two pair, and a gutshot for a straight, and a non-diamond queen to give him trips... of which only three are nut outs. Kind of an interesting problem: how much do I discount my grab bag of dirty outs just because my opponent 3-bet?
The turn call to my mind is actually more dubious than the flop call, since a low is now possible. Flop, you are paying two more SB to contend for a 13SB pot, with two cards to come and no low made; turn, you are paying one BB for a chance at 9.5BB, but with a low enabled and only one more card to come I think the odds actually look less good than they did before.
River seems like a super easy call. Opponents will have Q8xx, 84xx, A2Qx and so on often enough for you to be good here and even scoop some of the time.

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

I usually let this go on the turn also. The low being enabled really reduces your odds at this point and a good low is really free riding you for high. I think bart has it right.

If you get to the river I call also but don't like it. You can easily be second best on the high also.

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

Are you trying to convince the forum of your thought process, or are you still trying to convince yourself? Not intended to be rude or condescending.

Fwiw, when I bet and there's a raise and a re-raise, I usually give the 3-bettor credit for something strong. The initial raiser can have a wide range, but in this particular spot with a bet, raise, then a re-raise- the 3-bettor is going to either have a set, or the nut flush draw/low draw a huge % of the time.

That being said I'll usually discount something in my hand when it's 3-bet. Say you put him on a set, so your two pair outs aren't any good, or you put him on the nut flush draw, where your flush draw wouldn't be any good, or maybe he has a low draw and an oesd, where he's basically free rolling you.


A lot of players need to quit thinking they're getting 4-1 on this flop. That's the immediate pot odds, but maybe Buzz can chime in here and tell you what your long term odds are in that spot, i.e., how often a low will be made that reduces your odds by 50%, etc, and I'm assuming you're really only getting about 2.75/1 on that flop in the long run.


Fold to the three bet. You have one nut out, and you're often going to be putting in 2 more BB's after you cold call the 3-bet.

Also, players stats may be fishy in this hand, but go back and look at their hand ranges where they've 3-bet. Even these middle limit loose players show up with a hand when they 3-bet two people on the flop.


Fold the flop, easily, and don't lose any sleep over it.

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

I would have folded on the flop too, after the reraise. You don't have a single nut draw.

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

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I would have folded on the flop too, after the reraise. You don't have a single nut draw.

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Shorthanded, this can be a difficult fold -- and a small correction -- he has four outs to the nuts (A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Js).

Most of the time, any other diamond is good and his top pair could also be good here.

Like OP, I bet out this flop. How I continue depends on my opponent(s).

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

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I would have folded on the flop too, after the reraise. You don't have a single nut draw.

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Shorthanded, this can be a difficult fold -- and a small correction -- he has four outs to the nuts (A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Js).

Most of the time, any other diamond is good and his top pair could also be good here.

Like OP, I bet out this flop. How I continue depends on my opponent(s).

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ha oops ur right... i was actually looking for the card to give him the nut str8 and for whatever reason i was having problems finding it...

I agree with betting out, definitely....
but i wouldn't call a reraise with only 4 outs to the nut high and no low hand. Not to mention the problems you might face if they peel off a low diamond and it gets nasty with the bets.

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

Thanks for the many replies. I was hoping one of you number cruncher types would put numbers on a hand like this for me, maybe you still will.

On the other side, most of the responses seemed to ignore the strong read that I pointed out on these players, and most of the responses that want a flop fold seem like the every day 9-handed O8 response. I don't not value reading what everyone has said, but I really hope some of you play short handed frequently and could give a better insight on the shorthand game. I rarely play full games online, and the 6-max games that deteriorate into HU or 3-handed games are really good, and I slaughter them constantly. While I don't think my play was 100% perfect, I think too many of you give way too little regard for: 1) the reads I gave and the poor play styles of my opponents 2) the short-handed nature of the game, AKA hand values rising signifcantly.

I know everyone hates the HE comparisons, but in a 9-handed HE game, I will rarely draw to the nun-nut flush in a multi-way raised pot with nothing else going for my hand. In 6-max or shorter HE, non nut flushes win a huge amount of the time and there are rarely more than 1 flush out. While in O8 with 4 hole cards, two flushes are more likely, you cannot discount the increased hand values in short-handed games.

As some pointed out, I think the most questionable street is the turn, once I can assume that a huge % of the time I am now only playing for 1/2.

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

Wackjob - The 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the turn is a terrible card for you.

You're have to think you're probably ahead after the flop, even when the betting goes nuts behind you. Of course you worry about being up against a flopped set when Button three-bets.

But I wouldn't think, given your opinion of Button, that the three-bet necessarily means a set. And there's a rather low probability Button has flopped a set, only about 4% or so. Still, it is possible, so that the three bet gives you pause.

And then the 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the turn enables low for an opponent, so that now you are probably only playing for half the pot.

But you don't have enough opponents to play for half the pot. You didn't necessarily need to make a flush or a set or two pairs yourself on the turn, but you had to still have a better chance to scoop than you do with three low cards on the board.

And therefore you have to reluctantly give up your hand to the turn bet. It's a tough fold because it looks like BB doesn't have much and like Button is betting low. And therefore you reason that you have a decent shot at high. But although you do have a chance for high, it's not good enough, with low enabled, to continue.

It's a tough fold on the turn, but I believe that is your play.

Buzz

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] a terrible card? That seems to overstate things a bit. OK, it makes a low possible - but it doesn't set up a flush draw besides ours (like a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] would), it doesn't make a straight possible (like a T or 5 or 7 would), it doesn't make a higher pair than our Q possible (like an A would), it doesn't raise the possibility than someone with a lower pair made trips (like a 4 or 8 would). It's not one of our outs, but it's not one of many cards we would really have hated.
As for numbers... in full ring, I seem to recall that odds of an opponent holding As when you have Ks are 36%. Simple division when facing three opponents instead of nine does not give an exactly correct value but should be in the ballpark, so odds of opponent holding a better flush draw are about one in eight.
Personally I think the turn is still a call. You have 21 outs by my count. Discounting them 20% or so for the possibility of opponent sets / better flush draws still leaves you odds to call, and that's not even considering the slight possibility that your top pair is actually good for high already.

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I think the turn is still a call. You have 21 outs by my count. Discounting them 20% or so for the possibility of opponent sets / better flush draws still leaves you odds to call, and that's not even considering the slight possibility that your top pair is actually good for high already.

[/ QUOTE ]Bart - Upon reflection, I agree with you that Hero has favorable odds to call the turn. And in that case, I can't see what Hero did wrong, if anything.

Thank you for the correction.

Buzz

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

[quotePersonally I think the turn is still a call. You have 21 outs by my count. Discounting them 20% or so for the possibility of opponent sets / better flush draws still leaves you odds to call, and that's not even considering the slight possibility that your top pair is actually good for high already.

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You have 18 outs. If your opponent has a set you have you have either 15 or 16, I dont remember the board, if your opponent has the nut flush draw you have 9 ways to improve. Whatever the specifics are, by calling the three bet on the flop you have bloated the pot, which is the hold'em equivalent of 3-betting with total trash and then having to call an AI b/c you're getting 3.5-1 or something similar.

Fold to the three bet.

As played, there is no way you can fold the river. If you're going to be folding this river then you seriously don't need to be playing this hand after the flop.

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

I done some calcs on the Nut flush issue.

Basically it's about 1/6 for the bare Boss Ace to have been dealt to 3 opponents, and it'll be sooted around 54% of time.

So against just 3 hands, 1 folded, with poor players, those who say not to discount the 2nd nut flush much, are I think right. Nevermind the read, that they'ld likely not Push with nut Flush draw, and are probably trying to promote marginal 2-way hands.

As the odds do seem to commit OP to calling all the way, the first reply, suggesting that leading out on that board, without the backup Lo, is probably right (against these players where there's little fold equity). You're going to be calling lots of bets to protect a very small orginal investment.

But I guess (as this hand has been posted on the forum), that the button actually had something ironic like AA28 which was slow-played pre-flop, and got outdrawn by the river card, for a scoop to Hero.

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

Basically it's about 1/6 for the bare Boss Ace to have been dealt to 3 opponents

Doesn't sound right. 3 opponents hold 12 cards between them. After the flop, you can see 7 of the 52 cards in the deck. The odds that the unseen ace is in one of their hands should be exactly 12/45 (neglecting adjustments for their hand ranges and the like), or a little more than one in four.
54% sounds right in general for the chance that a particular ace is suited, but when you have two of the suit in your hand and there are two on the flop you would also have to think about conditional probabilities that would make the chance of some opponent's ace being suited a bit lower.

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

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Are you trying to convince the forum of your thought process, or are you still trying to convince yourself? Not intended to be rude or condescending.

Fwiw, when I bet and there's a raise and a re-raise, I usually give the 3-bettor credit for something strong. The initial raiser can have a wide range, but in this particular spot with a bet, raise, then a re-raise- the 3-bettor is going to either have a set, or the nut flush draw/low draw a huge % of the time.

That being said I'll usually discount something in my hand when it's 3-bet. Say you put him on a set, so your two pair outs aren't any good, or you put him on the nut flush draw, where your flush draw wouldn't be any good, or maybe he has a low draw and an oesd, where he's basically free rolling you.


A lot of players need to quit thinking they're getting 4-1 on this flop. That's the immediate pot odds, but maybe Buzz can chime in here and tell you what your long term odds are in that spot, i.e., how often a low will be made that reduces your odds by 50%, etc, and I'm assuming you're really only getting about 2.75/1 on that flop in the long run.


Fold to the three bet. You have one nut out, and you're often going to be putting in 2 more BB's after you cold call the 3-bet.

Also, players stats may be fishy in this hand, but go back and look at their hand ranges where they've 3-bet. Even these middle limit loose players show up with a hand when they 3-bet two people on the flop.


Fold the flop, easily, and don't lose any sleep over it.

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TX, this was pretty much my take on it as well.

To the OP: You're going to be in much better situations against these players and they're all going to be there to pay you off when you are.

Re: Iffy at Best?
 

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Basically it's about 1/6 for the bare Boss Ace to have been dealt to 3 opponents

Doesn't sound right. 3 opponents hold 12 cards between them. After the flop, you can see 7 of the 52 cards in the deck. The odds that the unseen ace is in one of their hands should be exactly 12/45 (neglecting adjustments for their hand ranges and the like), or a little more than one in four.


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Yes thank you for pointing that out! I wrote a post showing working, it got 'lost' and then in a rush I re-posted and managed to mangle it completely.

The 54% figure is though right, and 12/45 * 54/100 = 0.144 or 1/6.94; So the 1/6 was actually a pessimistic discount rate, based on 1/2 * 1/3, presuming 2 of the players would actually fold some hands.