River spot early in stars 320
 

We've played maybe 20 hands at the table but I have no stats on him so he very well might've just got here. I won a tiny pot early but have done very little so far if by some chance he's been watching. Effective stacks on the river are 1800.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG (t2530)
UTG+1 (t2490)
MP1 (t2490)
MP2 (t2470)
MP3 (t2170)
CO (t3170)
Button (t2100)
Hero (t2500)
BB (t2600)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t20, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t100</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t80.

Flop: (t220) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t180</font>, MP1 calls t180.

Turn: (t580) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t420</font>, MP1 calls t420.

River: (t1420) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>


Steve

P.S. Oh and I almost posted this hand in stages but I think the rest is super standard. Also, people are doing way too much of that lately. Comments on other streets appreciated as well though.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

seems like a clear c/c

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

I'd bet 1000-1200. I think he most likely has an over pair &lt; QQ and can't lay it down.

edit: oops thought he raised and we reraised. The limp/call makes a 5 or 7 much more likely, but I still like a bet.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

I could see him having a flushdraw here. i don't think a straight draw of this board makes a limp/call except 89s.

If we bet the river, he's only calling with a hand that beats us. If he missed his flush/straight draw, he's going to fold.

Just as 0evg0 said, I think this is a good spot for a check/call.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

funny, I think it's a clear bet (1k, fold to shove). I don't think he's got a draw with the coldcall on a double paired board, and if he does he's not betting that much (esp since he has an ace a lot of the time and will check behind w/ showdown value). So, ignoring draws for that reason, he basically has a 7 or a 5 and will call/raise the river if you bet, and bet if you check (in which case betting is the same as check/calling), or he has a pair between 22 and TT, and he might fold to your bet and might call it, but will check behind on the river. So, betting is strictly superior to check-calling (when you eliminate draws), so it's just a question of how often he has a 7/5 here vs how often he calls with a smaller pair, and I think he has pairs often enough (and calls with them often enough) to make this a bet rather than a checkfold.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet 1000-1200. I think he most likely has an over pair &lt; QQ and can't lay it down.

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Do you think that he thinks we would bet the flop and turn with overcards, no pair?

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

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I'd bet 1000-1200. I think he most likely has an over pair &lt; QQ and can't lay it down.

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Do you think that he thinks we would bet the flop and turn with overcards, no pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he thinks 'overpair! call!'

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

[ QUOTE ]
funny, I think it's a clear bet (1k, fold to shove). I don't think he's got a draw with the coldcall on a double paired board, and if he does he's not betting that much (esp since he has an ace a lot of the time and will check behind w/ showdown value). So, ignoring draws for that reason, he basically has a 7 or a 5 and will call/raise the river if you bet, and bet if you check (in which case betting is the same as check/calling), or he has a pair between 22 and TT, and he might fold to your bet and might call it, but will check behind on the river. So, betting is strictly superior to check-calling (when you eliminate draws), so it's just a question of how often he has a 7/5 here vs how often he calls with a smaller pair, and I think he has pairs often enough (and calls with them often enough) to make this a bet rather than a checkfold.

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i almost made this exact post, but i felt dirty saying bet-fold on the river and shoving is kinda big ... so i skipped posting.

edit: also, by 'exact post' i mean, what he said, but crammed into 1 or 2 sentenecs.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

nothing dirty about bet-folding here... no one ever bluffs here. if they do, nh. Note to the reader: I'm not folding to you. don't try it, jackass.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
funny, I think it's a clear bet (1k, fold to shove). I don't think he's got a draw with the coldcall on a double paired board, and if he does he's not betting that much (esp since he has an ace a lot of the time and will check behind w/ showdown value). So, ignoring draws for that reason, he basically has a 7 or a 5 and will call/raise the river if you bet, and bet if you check (in which case betting is the same as check/calling), or he has a pair between 22 and TT, and he might fold to your bet and might call it, but will check behind on the river. So, betting is strictly superior to check-calling (when you eliminate draws), so it's just a question of how often he has a 7/5 here vs how often he calls with a smaller pair, and I think he has pairs often enough (and calls with them often enough) to make this a bet rather than a checkfold.

[/ QUOTE ]

i almost made this exact post, but i felt dirty saying bet-fold on the river and shoving is kinda big ... so i skipped posting.

edit: also, by 'exact post' i mean, what he said, but crammed into 1 or 2 sentenecs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's why I originally said check/call because bet/fold didn't sound good so I went into between.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

i don't see why his range has changed at all from flop to river.

even an idiot realizes steve never has a 7 or a 5 here so their straight/flush/straight flush outs are still "clean" on turn (yeah, they're not but blah blah).

as for river, any that beats A2o is betting if we check. and so are those missed draws which i think he shows up with a lot more than everyone else.

while you're right that b/f is a good line because we're NEVER getting bluff-raised, that's really not a convincing enough argument.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

first of all, you're definitely overestimating how many people are bluffing their missed draws on the river. 98cc is checking behind here a LOT. Second, I don't think steve never has a 7 here, but that's somewhat irrelevant. Anyway, yeah people sometimes have a draw here, and they will still call the turn a fair amount even w/ the double paired board, but I don't think they'll bluff very much at all.
geeeeeenerally speaking, the people who flatcall twice with their draws aren't the same people who bluff with their missed draws.

wait, I just realized I misread your post... you said anything that beats A2o is betting if we check, not anything that is BEATEN by A2o. umm... I disagree. I think midpairs here very rarely bet. Steve's line is pretty damn scary.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

Since you're not inducing bluffs, bet/fold is always better than c/c, just have to figure out if c/f is better than b/f.

If we check and he bets, I don't think we'll be getting pot odds to call unless it's a really small bet that a dumb player w/ 88 could make.

Since we're intending to c/f otherwise, I think we need to have 50%+ vs. his combined calling/raising (edit) range, i.e. we need to get called by a worse hand 50%+ when we make the bet, to make bet/fold better than c/f.

This is all assuming we're not getting bluff/raised and he's never bluffing when we check to him on river, reasonable assumptions.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

bet

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

[ QUOTE ]
we're NEVER getting bluff-raised,

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Maybe not but we will be raised by hands we are beating (JJ-88, 66) enough that folding the river after putting in a reasonable bet would be bad IMHO.

I would bet somewhere from 750-850 on the river to get value from the medium pairs and Ax's of the world (and then call any raise, obv).

Later,
Che

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

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[ QUOTE ]
we're NEVER getting bluff-raised,

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Maybe not but we will be raised by hands we are beating (JJ-88, 66) enough that folding the river after putting in a reasonable bet would be bad IMHO.

I would bet somewhere from 750-850 on the river to get value from the medium pairs and Ax's of the world (and then call any raise, obv).

Later,
Che

[/ QUOTE ]

right, i thought about that, but even if we bet 1k on river, we're just not getting the odds to call

so are you suggesting bet/call?

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

right,
so why not jam the river?

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

[ QUOTE ]
right,
so why not jam the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

got confused when responding, and now edited my post after you replied.

i think the fact that he's "value-shoving" worse hands sometimes only makes betting less proiftable, not more.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

Jamming folds too many Ax hands but still gets called by all the hands that beat you (well, maybe an occasional 5 folds but I wouldn't count on it).

Plus, I always include a small amount of value in any bet less than all-in (assuming I know I will call a push) because a lot of people will see bets like the one I'm suggesting as weak and push. I'm not saying it's a smart move on their part or that it has huge value for us, but it does happen enough to take into consideration even at higher online buyins.

Later,
Che

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think the fact that he's "value-shoving" worse hands sometimes only makes betting less proiftable, not more.

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You may well be correct so please explain why you think that.

I merely posted my gut instinct on this one and have not actually tried to estimate with any degree of accuracy the profitability of my line.

Later,
Che

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

what seperates pros from most of us? ability to fold a very good but beaten hand and the ability to get value from our good hands. this is close and can be played either way. a value bet is fine and a check to induce a bluff/value bet is ok too. i [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

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[ QUOTE ]
funny, I think it's a clear bet (1k, fold to shove). I don't think he's got a draw with the coldcall on a double paired board, and if he does he's not betting that much (esp since he has an ace a lot of the time and will check behind w/ showdown value). So, ignoring draws for that reason, he basically has a 7 or a 5 and will call/raise the river if you bet, and bet if you check (in which case betting is the same as check/calling), or he has a pair between 22 and TT, and he might fold to your bet and might call it, but will check behind on the river. So, betting is strictly superior to check-calling (when you eliminate draws), so it's just a question of how often he has a 7/5 here vs how often he calls with a smaller pair, and I think he has pairs often enough (and calls with them often enough) to make this a bet rather than a checkfold.

[/ QUOTE ]

i almost made this exact post, but i felt dirty saying bet-fold on the river and shoving is kinda big ... so i skipped posting.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

I don't really think we get raised by hands we beat often enough for it to really matter. Am I wrong there?

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

bet a lot of dough

prob don't go all in though

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

che we aren't getting raised by those hands...

or at least not very often at all

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

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I don't really think we get raised by hands we beat often enough for it to really matter. Am I wrong there?

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well even if they only raise all-in on river with 88-JJ like 10% of the time, it's still impactful enough imo.

Che,

betting is very profitable if we are behind 100% of the time when he raises.

if suddenly we are only behind 90% of the time they raise us, then although the value of bet/call goes up marginally it is still not nearly valuable enough to be a preferred line. and because the value of bet/call increases, the value of bet/folding therefore decreases proportionally from possibly being the most valuable line (or at least close to it), to something less.

hopefully this makes some sense. i have a hard time conveying the thoughts i have sometimes, and it's one of the reasons i rarely write more than 5 lines.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

now that i think about it though, as much as i hate to think there's much of a difference between buyins, this would be a different decision in a $55 mtt and i feel this point we are talking about re: worse hands raising for "value" just isn't prevalent enough here.

ALL,

What if this hand played out during the sunday mill?

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

Shove.

B/F might be correct, but thats hard to stomach.

Plus he might think were more likely to bluff if we shove, and there for look us up real thin.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

[ QUOTE ]
now that i think about it though, as much as i hate to think there's much of a difference between buyins, this would be a different decision in a $55 mtt and i feel this point we are talking about re: worse hands raising for "value" just isn't prevalent enough here.

ALL,

What if this hand played out during the sunday mill?

[/ QUOTE ]

shove all day since they will call with muuuuuch worse on avg

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

oh. yeah lol

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

[ QUOTE ]
as much as i hate to think there's much of a difference between buyins, this would be a different decision in a $55 mtt and i feel this point we are talking about re: worse hands raising for "value" just isn't prevalent enough here.


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Maybe this is the root of the difference of opinion. I don't play the PS $320 tourneys so my default read may not apply.

But...I also have a hard time thinking they play all that differently from the $100 and $200 multi's I've been playing at UB.

Later,
Che

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

[ QUOTE ]
che we aren't getting raised by those hands...

or at least not very often at all

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Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

I like a bet/fold of somewhere around 900.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

I'm guessing steve shoved and got called by quads.

I bet like 900(possibly a bet that leaves you with exactly 1000 chips), but I think a shove may be right here.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

I would definitely bet on the river.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

I kinda like betting 750 on the river and folding to any raise, I think 66/88/99/TT calls here enough opposed to a suited connector with a 7 or 5 that flat calls 2 streets and doesn't raise with the best hand until the river.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

well I bet 1020 after thinking about it for a few seconds. He shoved pretty quick, I shook my head and decided it'd be nice to have some results for this thread. AA good.

Steve

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

[ QUOTE ]
well I bet 1020 after thinking about it for a few seconds. He shoved pretty quick, I shook my head and decided it'd be nice to have some results for this thread. AA good.

Steve

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nh.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

[ QUOTE ]
well I bet 1020 after thinking about it for a few seconds. He shoved pretty quick, I shook my head and decided it'd be nice to have some results for this thread. AA good.

Steve

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Expert thought process. I think I bet like 750 and fold to a push fwiw.

Re: River spot early in stars 320
 

Me + Che FTW.