Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

It's been pretty grim with seemingly no profitable spots but a recent post recently made me wonder whether my pushbotting strategy is all that it should be.

Anyway, second break within one minute so my next BB is likely to be 900. Not much pushing happening at the table so while most of them are pretty bad, it's hard to judge calling ranges. Sheets is in MP.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400
(Ante: t25)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t35774
Hero: t3949
MP1: t19475
MP2: t6002
MP3: t10885
CO: t38457
Button: t15266
SB: t5274
BB: t13449

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero?


First hand after second break.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t300/t600
(Ante: t50)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t18625
UTG+1: t5952
MP1: t10835
MP2: t41032
MP3: t16841
CO: t5024
Button: t11799
SB: t34524
Hero: t3899

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
5 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises all-in t4974</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero?

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

easy folds on both

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

2nd one no way. 1st one, if you raise 2.5-3x your raise will get a lot of respeck i'll steal here if the table has been respecking EP raises. also, if you get called you'll have to c-bet, but again, there is mad respect to be given to EP steals. Just don't get too attached to stealing from EP, this is one of a few times it's not a bad play.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

OK. On #2, folding leaves me open pushing with virtually no FE and a reasonably aggro table with some very big stacks. CO's range here is virtually any two, no?

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

nonono

nonoon

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

Hand 1 EZ fold.

Hand 2 less easy fold.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

FFFFFFFFFFFFffffffffffffffffffffoooooollllllllllld ddddd.

Really really easy, joel. Dunno why you'd think differently. You'll still have FE in the second one even if you lose the SB as well... 5 BBs has plenty of FE even with the bigger antes at 300/600/50.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

I'm leaning towards easy fold for both.

1st hand I could raise to 1000 &amp; let it go to a re-raise? Or would you be pot-committed if you'd invested 1000 already?

Either way, 97o isn't a hand I'd particularly be looking at doing that with.

Hand 2 I'm ditching no matter what, I'd say. J3hh doesn't get me excited to be calling a push, no matter how short I am!

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

[ QUOTE ]
FFFFFFFFFFFFffffffffffffffffffffoooooollllllllllld ddddd.

Really really easy, joel. Dunno why you'd think differently. You'll still have FE in the second one even if you lose the SB as well... 5 BBs has plenty of FE even with the bigger antes at 300/600/50.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guys, I think the second one is a lot closer than it looks but I am happy to stand corrected by anyone with access poker stove. I have to call 3249 to win a 8548 pot. How wide does CO's pushing range have to be for this to be be profitable?

CO has an M of less than 4. He's got to be open shoving more or less any two. Also, my image would be super tight.

Let's assume that J3s is at the very bottom of his pushing range, is a call profitable on that basis?

Of course the second point is that it is extremely unlikely that the next hand is folded to my SB and even more unlikely that, even if it is, the guy to my left is not going to call if I push. So let these blinds go through me and I have 2899 chips, an M of 2 and, I would suggest, no FE.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

afterwards, like this, it looks like u have a choice beetween these 2 spots to pick. i´d rather go with the first one, try and get a stack that can survive the blinds semi-ok or get lucky and double.

second, he probably push a lot of hand u got 60/40 against and quite a lot u are 40/60. i think this is an ok spot to gamble with but id rather try the first spot. (with k3hh id be instacalling in 2nd spot?). obv this only makes sense if you think the shortie here has a wide range, so u dont run into someone who is like 8/5 and has been waiting for their big pp

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

[ QUOTE ]
Guys, I think the second one is a lot closer than it looks but I am happy to stand corrected by anyone with access poker stove. I have to call 3249 to win a 8548 pot. How wide does CO's pushing range have to be for this to be be profitable?

CO has an M of less than 4. He's got to be open shoving more or less any two. Also, my image would be super tight.

Let's assume that J3s is at the very bottom of his pushing range, is a call profitable on that basis?

[/ QUOTE ]
Even with that wide a range (J3s equals top 54%), it's still not a profitable call just by pure numbers:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.695% 59.16% 01.54% 2722909460 70697692.00 { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J3s+, T5s+, 95s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A2o+, K4o+, Q6o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o, 87o }
Hand 1: 39.305% 37.77% 01.54% 1738368308 70697692.00 { J3s }


You're getting 1.45:1 pot odds, and you're 1.54:1 to win vs that range with J3s. He needs to push top 64% or wider (22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,95s+,84s+,74s+,64s+, 54s,A2o+,K2o+,Q4o+,J6o+,T7o+,97o+,87o,76o) for a call to be profitable. Just by the numbers, this is in fact very close.


[ QUOTE ]
Of course the second point is that it is extremely unlikely that the next hand is folded to my SB and even more unlikely that, even if it is, the guy to my left is not going to call if I push. So let these blinds go through me and I have 2899 chips, an M of 2 and, I would suggest, no FE.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is certainly a valid point - this may be a situation where you're not certain to get a +EV spot at all in the future, but rather a sequence of -EV ones. Since this is very close and vs one opponent, it might just be correct to call here. Either way, it's not as clear cut as everyone is making it out to be.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

Thanks Soulman.

I'm pushing 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,95s+,84s+,74s+,64s+,5 4s,A2o+,K2o+,Q4o+,J6o+,T7o+,97o+,87o,76o in his shoes and that has to be correct. So if CO is playing optimally, I reckon this is a call.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

Argh, slight error in the maths there since he's got you covered...not much, but pot odds = 1.41:1, not 1.45:1.

Edit: it makes the ranges about the same though, since the difference is minute.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

i think the first one is push heads-up, a close decision 3-way, but an easy fold utg

the 2nd one is a call if u think co is pushing with at least the top 80% or so (not pokerstoved - just a gut feeling, but i have a very mathematical gut)

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

ok w 10 bb left opening w 79 from early whether its a raise or shove is really bad. PATEINCE YOU WILL GET A HAND OR A GOOD SPOT TO STEAL DON'T PANIC. YOU CAN STILL TRY TO GET ALLIN W THE BEST HAND OR A FLIP

J 2 IS AN EASY FOLD SEE ABOVe

i really think ppl panic on shortstack. they shve in early pos w dominated ace high hands or weak garbage. this is an area of my game i feel real good about. i consider 10 bb or less shoving time. i shove w aces i shove w 78 suited .no fancy plays. position is inversely proportional to my hand needed to shove. i like sklanskys idea too. ill speculate when between 10-15 bb hoping to catch a good flop and dbl up. if i miss no biggie im then into allin mode.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

Both easy folds. registrar the typical player in these has nowhere near as loose a range as that.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

i said call if co is pushing with 80%+. i see that soulman has done some proper maths and come up with 64%+, altho his mathematical error might change that to 66% or so.

at first glance i thought your pot odds weren't quite so good, so i might go for 75% now.

Soulman's calculations are based purely on ev, not $ev, i think this makes a difference - the chips u lose are worth more than the chips u win - so i don't wanna go lower than 75%

is it possible to tell the difference between a co that pushes here with 80%+ (call), one that goes with top 70% (i fold - soulman calls) or a relatively tight 60%+ co (fold)?

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

[ QUOTE ]
ok w 10 bb left opening w 79 from early whether its a raise or shove is really bad. PATEINCE YOU WILL GET A HAND OR A GOOD SPOT TO STEAL DON'T PANIC. YOU CAN STILL TRY TO GET ALLIN W THE BEST HAND OR A FLIP

J 2 IS AN EASY FOLD SEE ABOVe

i really think ppl panic on shortstack. they shve in early pos w dominated ace high hands or weak garbage. this is an area of my game i feel real good about. i consider 10 bb or less shoving time. i shove w aces i shove w 78 suited .no fancy plays. position is inversely proportional to my hand needed to shove. i like sklanskys idea too. ill speculate when between 10-15 bb hoping to catch a good flop and dbl up. if i miss no biggie im then into allin mode.

[/ QUOTE ]

A few points about the most recent responses. About panicking with 97o. In OP, I point out that it is highly likely that I'll move into BB as it goes up. So I have an above average hand and some FE now, one more hand (I folded here and it was 75o next) and then I'm into the BB with an M of 3. Waiting for a better hand is fine but sometimes you can't and sometimes it doesn't win anyway.

The issue is, as Soulman pointed out, that while a shove here is -cEV, the likelihood is, or there is a strong likelihood, that all spots from here will be -eCV. However, getting lucky and doubling this stack is better that getting lucky and doubling a smaller stack with higher blinds.

About CO's open shoving range in #2, he appeared a competent player, he has very low M and it's folded to him in LP in the $50r. He's going to be shoving a wide range here and I'm pretty sure that a call is +EV. Added to which, folding leaves us needing to double (get lucky twice) with next to now FE the first time.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

fold both...second is harder for me

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

2nd is much closer then first, but the issue is that people don't play optimally and they err towards being tighter so we have to adjust accordingly.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

aplunk,

the difference betweeen cEV and $EV is negligible at this point - we're nowhere near the money yet. The chips you win here are worth _more_ than the chips you lose - they'll give you FE back, which is of course critical. The math error is trivial enough that the effect is close to negligible as well, max 1%.

I'm with mastr that you need a good read that villain will push wide in order to make the call though. If you do, I don't really see a problem in calling and gambling to get a stack again, even if it's slightly -EV. Either way, it's close enough that it's not a big error, and the expected future gain (with having FE again) makes it a call I don't think is bad.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

why is it better to call off your chips with j3 than pushing 97o with 10bb??

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

posItion game poker is

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

[ QUOTE ]
why is it better to call off your chips with j3 than pushing 97o with 10bb??

[/ QUOTE ]

It's ranges, innit? In #2, I'm up against one player, closing the action. It's a pretty straightforward calculation. If he's pushing the top 64% (was it?) of his hands there, calling is +cEV. I think he is (he was, he had J3s but I flopped my flush booyah). The other issue is whether I can afford to fold. Which is to say, even if calling is -cEV, I would guess that we are not likely to find a +cEV or less -cEV spot in the next 7 hands.

97o from UTG+1 is a fold. We have more FE (being in EP and shoving 10BBs) but the CO can call comfortably and the BB can make a pot odds call closing the action. And, of course, with 7 players left to act, there is a reasonable chance that someone wakes up with a big hand. I think there are reasons for making a -cEV shove here: the blinds are going up and we're straight into them so we're losing all FE and we're not likely to find a better spot, I had a tight image, people respect EP raises. I'd shove 98s here for sure.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

how is 7-9 above average? and against a callers range its a piece of swish cheese.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

I'm guessing it's a top 50% hand and not in bad shape agaisnt overcards. You're stuffed v medium pairs+ obv.

The point is that you're 50/50 to get a better hand UTG and then you're in BB with M=3.

It's not a push but with all factors considered, it's not far off. The whole point of the thread is that two spots that most would write off as easy folds aren't actually that clear.

Edit: basically, there comes a point where all spots are likely to be -cEV and we don't have the luxury of choosing a +cEV spot but simply of deciding which -cEV spot is the best of a bad lot.

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why is it better to call off your chips with j3 than pushing 97o with 10bb??

[/ QUOTE ]

It's ranges, innit? In #2, I'm up against one player, closing the action. It's a pretty straightforward calculation. If he's pushing the top 64% (was it?) of his hands there, calling is +cEV. I think he is (he was, he had J3s but I flopped my flush booyah). The other issue is whether I can afford to fold. Which is to say, even if calling is -cEV, I would guess that we are not likely to find a +cEV or less -cEV spot in the next 7 hands.

97o from UTG+1 is a fold. We have more FE (being in EP and shoving 10BBs) but the CO can call comfortably and the BB can make a pot odds call closing the action. And, of course, with 7 players left to act, there is a reasonable chance that someone wakes up with a big hand. I think there are reasons for making a -cEV shove here: the blinds are going up and we're straight into them so we're losing all FE and we're not likely to find a better spot, I had a tight image, people respect EP raises. I'd shove 98s here for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, i clearly agree we should go with one of these spots. but thinking possible FE is better than just calling in a very marginal spot? further, if we fold this 97 we are actually hoping to get a better spot in just 2 hands, this time maybe we got one slightly better but is that a good gameplan?

Re: Two short stack felting decisions from $50r
 

2nd is a call....you have no fold equity in sb next hand. You are just looking to get in a coin flip sittuation and get lucky. COs range is huge and includes less than J high imo.....89s, 910s