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-   -   how many hands before stats are reliable (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=403330)

sadlaws 05-14-2007 11:26 PM

how many hands before stats are reliable
 
Hi,

I've been using poker tracker for a couple of days now and I've compiled about 5K hands. How much hands do you believe is required before the "variance" or luck factor doesn't interfere with the stats ?

I want your opinion or personal experience !

timex 05-14-2007 11:27 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
About 1500

Chump Change 05-14-2007 11:29 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
fitty+ ld0 n00b

Tree Surgeon 05-14-2007 11:30 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
1/2; either they're reliable or they're not.

amirite 05-14-2007 11:35 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
If you don't have two hands stats are the least of your problems.

Insane_Steve 05-14-2007 11:36 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
[ QUOTE ]
About 1500

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, this is about right. If you are down after 1500 or at most 2k hands you should probably quit poker because you're obv a losing player.

ASPoker8 05-14-2007 11:36 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
[ QUOTE ]
About 150

[/ QUOTE ]

Mrage 05-14-2007 11:58 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
It depends; if you get sucked out on a lot during your sample then you obviously have to start over since that's not a good representation.

SharkTank43 05-15-2007 12:00 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
[ QUOTE ]
About 1500

[/ QUOTE ]

hra146 05-15-2007 12:01 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
[ QUOTE ]
It depends; if you get sucked out on a lot during your sample then you obviously have to start over since that's not a good representation.

[/ QUOTE ]

bwuahahehahaha .. loved that one. should be stickied

Bantam222 05-15-2007 12:07 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
I like to just use my biggest winning hand from my session for my winrate. This encourages me and shows me what i can do when I play to the best of my potential.

Gary Stevenson 05-15-2007 12:08 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
67 hands, i had the same winrate after 67 hands that i do now after 150k+ hands at the same level so i'm pretty sure 67 is the answer

eurythmech 05-15-2007 12:08 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 

derosnec 05-15-2007 12:09 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
u don't need stats in poker. u need CAJONES

leatherass 05-15-2007 12:09 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
lol

sadlaws 05-15-2007 12:09 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
you forgot 67 ... :S

HiiroYuy 05-15-2007 12:12 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
hahahah [censored] redic. I highly suggest stickying not only the sticky suggestion above but the entire post.

Mrage 05-15-2007 09:00 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
[ QUOTE ]
I like to just use my biggest winning hand from my session for my winrate. This encourages me and shows me what i can do when I play to the best of my potential.

[/ QUOTE ]
Also acceptable.

Suigin406 05-15-2007 09:04 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
the answer to the question is 172,144 hands

Reef 05-15-2007 09:04 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
384 + / - 3

Warteen 05-15-2007 09:10 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
Stats are never reliable because poker is a game of luck.

Example: I had AA against my opponent's AKo. The stats say I should reliably win this, but my opponent draws a four-flush on me and I lose.

Stats should be ignored.

Flintoff 05-15-2007 09:23 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
1500-2000 is a pretty solid figure.

Orlando Salazar 05-15-2007 09:45 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
About 1500

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, this is about right. If you are down after 1500 or at most 2k hands you should probably quit poker because you're obv a losing player.

[/ QUOTE ]

ROFL, you are BATSHT INSANE.

Two ways, check probability forum for formula that uses win rate and standard deviation.

Or, make sure your won $ when saw flop is >42% and filter your PT for all hands that went to showdown (Wont be more than 500). Figure out your money weighted average equity for each street then average it for all hands. If you are above 50% in money weighted average equity, and your won $ when saw flop is greater than 33%, you are probably good. Otherwise, quit poker.

Knet 05-15-2007 10:09 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
About tree-fitty

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

ok2aa 05-15-2007 10:12 AM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
5 tournaments

hasugopher 05-15-2007 04:34 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
[ QUOTE ]
5 tournaments

[/ QUOTE ]
two words: jamie gold

he only played in 1 tournament that i know of and he's the best player in the world/world champion

rvg72 05-15-2007 04:41 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
About 1500

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, this is about right. If you are down after 1500 or at most 2k hands you should probably quit poker because you're obv a losing player.

[/ QUOTE ]

ROFL, you are BATSHT INSANE.

Two ways, check probability forum for formula that uses win rate and standard deviation.

Or, make sure your won $ when saw flop is >42% and filter your PT for all hands that went to showdown (Wont be more than 500). Figure out your money weighted average equity for each street then average it for all hands. If you are above 50% in money weighted average equity, and your won $ when saw flop is greater than 33%, you are probably good. Otherwise, quit poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

umm no.... 1500 is in fact correct.

rvg

Orlando Salazar 05-15-2007 04:43 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
You've never heard of a person having 2k hand breakeven stretch....lol u r smaaaaaaarrrrrrtttttt

SkeetyMcdoogle 05-15-2007 04:44 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
1500 is about right for me.

rvg72 05-15-2007 04:45 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
[ QUOTE ]
You've never heard of a person having 2k hand breakeven stretch....lol u r smaaaaaaarrrrrrtttttt

[/ QUOTE ]

Trust me, i've played thousands of hands and no way a good player breaks even over 2000 hands. 2000 hands is like 70 hours in a live game. You are trying to say a poker pro could work for 70 hours and not make a profit????

rvg

Orlando Salazar 05-15-2007 04:51 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
ohhhhhh you play live... you are in for a surprise in 2 years...also one of the more respected players on this forum, CTS, has had 100k breakeven stretches. Unless you only use tells or something and never play ur cards (Jen Harman?)....

holdme 05-15-2007 04:59 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
200+

dallas14 05-15-2007 05:04 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
just do what most people do here, make your own stats up

keikiwai 05-15-2007 05:28 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
2 from each position, 3 if you want to be 100% sure

TxRedMan 05-15-2007 05:33 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
300,000

The Velour Fog 05-15-2007 05:58 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
do you people even know how much time it would take to put in 1500 hands?? id say 150 hands ought to be enough to see where you stand

DopamineRelease 05-15-2007 06:01 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
Software or Zoo forums ftw?

dardo 05-15-2007 06:28 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
[ QUOTE ]
300,000

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you crazy? 1, you only need 1 hand!!!

Between, I have another question:
How many answers do you need at BBV to get the correct one? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

ipokeder 05-15-2007 06:31 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
how many hands does it take to screw in a light bulb?

ANSWER: 1, one to screw in the light bulb and the other to masturbate when you're done!! LOL!

in all seriousness i have no idea sorry

Soundwave 05-15-2007 06:34 PM

Re: how many hands before stats are reliable
 
[ QUOTE ]

How many answers do you need at BBV to get the correct one? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
1500

also, SALAZARRRR!


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