An inevitable march to the final two?
 

Here's a simplistic analysis based on some comments that Stellar Wind (I think) made. I am assuming that all of the contestants pick good songs and sing well - this is not predicated on any particular singer stinking up the stage, which would change everything.

The first assumption is that Melinda and LaKisha share to a very large extent the same demographic. In other words, if LaKisha gets voted out, a large portion of the her votes will shift to Melinda and vice versa.

In a similar vein, Blake and Jordin's demographics overlap to a reasonable extent. Again, this is very simplistic - there are 12 year olds voting for LaKisha and 90 year olds voting for Blake - but can serve for a first-level analysis. However, I don't think the voters will switch quite as much in a block as above - in particular, if Jordin goes then I think Melinda/LaKisha will pick up some votes even though Blake will probably get the lion's share.

What this means is that whoever gets voted out this week will propel their "partner" to the finals. If LaKisha/Melinda goes, then Melinda/LaKisha should pick up enough votes from their new constituency to guarantee that she makes it the finale. Same with Jordin/Blake. Therefore, there is virtually no chance of either a Melinda/LaKisha or Jordin/Blake finale.[1]

Based on all available evidence (DI, B3, performances, judges' comments) I don't think that LaKisha beats Melinda in any reasonable scenario. Therefore, LaKisha is either out this week or next.

Blake likely picked up a sizable amount of votes from the Chris R. block; given that he was quite possibly already ahead of Jordin (if not, he was almost certainly close), I think this gives him a significant advantage over her.

Bottom line: I think it's highly, highly likely that LaKisha goes out this week and Jordin the next. Whether Blake or Melinda wins will depend on how Jordin's votes split.

[1]Not all voters switch to another singer, of course - some just stop voting. If Melinda were to go out this week and a lot of her voters give up, I could see LaKisha remaining in third place, leading to a Blake/Jordin final. I think this is a very unlikley scenario if only because I don't see LaKisha outlasting Melinda.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

Good analysis, Analyst (ouch, redundancies). I agree with all of that and based on the assumptions you made, those conclusions seems likely.

To maybe take this analysis further, here's a question I'd like to pose: Let's assume ALL the contestants have bad performances - obviously this is purely hypothetical and WON'T happen. Who is the most volatile? Who is affected most by a poor performance and who is affected the least? Assume that the general public assumes everyone to be equally bad.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

To me it seems that most of the people I talk to are EITHER Melinda or Lakisha. It's almost like a RedSox/Yanks thing. I can't see many of the people I know who like Melinda ever voting for Lakisha, and likewise Lakisha's voting for Melinda. They're somewhat polarizing. Either you like Melinda and Lakisha is an also-ran or you like Lakisha and Melinda has no neck or personality. At least that seems to be the case on these boards.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

Yeah, I think that's the case. I wonder, how strong are these fans? Are Lakisha fans anti-Melinda fans? In other words, if /when Lakisha goes, will these fans vote for Blake and Jordin because they view Melinda as the "rival?" Maybe I'm taking the baseball analogy too far. It's possible though.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

Someone recently made a very good post about the object of idol is to get VOTES, not VOTERS. I agree completely, which is why these scenarios are hard to determine in advance. The quality of a specific performance influences how hard their fans vote (or not).

So let's say for argument's sake Blake has more fans than Jordin. But let's say Jordin does awesome and Blake does just so-so. Jordin's fans will be motivated to vote more, determined not to see their fave go home after such a good performance. Blake's fans will still vote but maybe for an hour instead of 2. A weak performance is very de-motivating to the fans.

I really think this is why Lakisha didn't go home last week. She may have a smaller fanbase but they voted like hell for her after she did so well last week.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

What about a contestant's group voting harder after a poor performance and/or poor judge comments? They know their favorite is in danger and feel more compelled to keep him/her around.

I can honestly see it either way.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What about a contestant's group voting harder after a poor performance and/or poor judge comments? They know their favorite is in danger and feel more compelled to keep him/her around.

I can honestly see it either way.

[/ QUOTE ]

HMM maybe but I still think good performances are rewarded with more average "votes per voter" than bad/mediocre ones. I could be wrong though.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

I'd say you're right with the average, casual voter. Instead of voting once, he or she may vote 3 or 4 times for a good performance. I think the hardcore fans who have been loyal throughout the season are more inclined to power vote their favorite who does not appear safe. It's hard to really tell which amounts to more votes.

I think the most dangerous recipe here would be a contestant with a loyal fan base (although now that we're in the top 4, I would assume everyone has some sort of loyal fan base) who puts on a mediocre performance that makes him or her seem safe but doesn't wow anyone. This would keep the casual voters from voting more than usual and the hardcore voters from fearing that their favorite is in danger.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[1]Not all voters switch to another singer, of course - some just stop voting.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think it has been shown that most do stop voting.

i know this is anctedotal, but everyone i know that votes, stops completely when their horse is gone.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i know this is anctedotal, but everyone i know that votes, stops completely when their horse is gone.

[/ QUOTE ]
Can this idea be reconciled with the weekly increases in the total number of votes?

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can this idea be reconciled with the weekly increases in the total number of votes?

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't they leave the lines open longer/have more #'s for each contestant? More people get through for a longer time frame. Plus, I bet fans get a bit more rabid toward the finals.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Who is affected most by a poor performance and who is affected the least? Assume that the general public assumes everyone to be equally bad.

[/ QUOTE ]
If everyone is equally bad then most people will make excuses for their favorites and damn the rest. Been there, done that, it's a very human reaction. No matter how bad everyone else has done, it's very hard to make a new fan with a bad performance. The net result is that whoever was last the previous week will fail to make up ground and thereby lose.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't they leave the lines open longer/have more #'s for each contestant? More people get through for a longer time frame. Plus, I bet fans get a bit more rabid toward the finals.

[/ QUOTE ]
Idol Gives Back was obviously abnormal. But up until then it had been two hours and one line per contestant every week. Yet the vote total has been continually increasing throughout the Finals despite millions of votes being cast for losing contestants.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[1]Not all voters switch to another singer, of course - some just stop voting.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think it has been shown that most do stop voting.

i know this is anctedotal, but everyone i know that votes, stops completely when their horse is gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this depends on whether their second favorite is still there. If they don't like anyone that's left, then they'd stop voting.

I'm a Melinda fan, if she's gone, I'd be more likely to vote for Blake than Lakisha because he's my next favorite. Contrary to OP's theory, I'm not more likely to vote for Lakisha just because she fits more of Melinda's genre or has similar characteristics.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

I have bet heavy on Idol every season and ironically I have never voted even once.

Anyway, as I have said before I don't think the average public just votes for the same contestant every week. I think they vote for the contestant that blows them away. I also don't think they stop watching if their favorite is voted off. I think in general the only ones who stop watching when their favorite is voted off are gamblers. Of course I need to believe all this because if I believed otherwise then Lakisha wouldn't stand a chance.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who is affected most by a poor performance and who is affected the least? Assume that the general public assumes everyone to be equally bad.

[/ QUOTE ]
If everyone is equally bad then most people will make excuses for their favorites and damn the rest. Been there, done that, it's a very human reaction. No matter how bad everyone else has done, it's very hard to make a new fan with a bad performance. The net result is that whoever was last the previous week will fail to make up ground and thereby lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems logical. But consider this scenario, where like I said, all contestants are equally "bad." Think of the following as a summary of judges' responses.

Jordin: (Remember, she was terrible last week) "It was definitely better than last week, but still not great. Good to see you bounce back though."

Lakisha: "This wasn't nearly as good as last week and I didn't like it too much. It wasn't your worst, however."

Blake: "Glad to see that you're sticking with your originality, but this performance was a mess. I think you're unique enough to be safe, however."

Melinda: "Hate to say it, but this was by far your worst performance yet. Hopefully your fans will give you a chance to bring back the old Melinda next week."


What I'm trying to illustrate here is that, while all the performers in this hypothetical situation are equally "bad," they still remain in different relative positions because of their prior successes and failures. In other words, Jordin and Melinda could be equally bad, but because Jordin was so bad last week and Melinda has been so good, Melinda could be in danger as she will seem to be someone who hit a plateau and then started declining. Jordin, on the other hand, will seem to be improving again.

Not saying this would ever be the case...I'm just trying to generate some alternate scenarios.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Blake likely picked up a sizable amount of votes from the Chris R. block; given that he was quite possibly already ahead of Jordin (if not, he was almost certainly close), I think this gives him a significant advantage over her.

[/ QUOTE ]
Last week was almost a perfect storm in this regard. Blake has his best week ever by a large margin while Jordin has her worst week ever by another large margin.

The odds are that isn't going to happen again. Jordin will do better tonight and Blake will lose the Superman cape. Then Jordin's long-term voter supremacy over Blake will probably reassert itself.

One thing that I do wonder about is "Pros" vs "Joes". Having to prepare two songs for tonight would seem to be a big advantage for the professionals (Blake and Melinda) over inexperienced Jordin and LaKisha. I guess we will see how that goes.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

Good point re: "Pros" vs "Joes." Hadn't thought about that.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have bet heavy on Idol every season and ironically I have never voted even once.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's a mistake. Actually voting has taught me a lot about the psychology of voting.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

I'm guilty of that too. Care to elaborate on what you mean by it teaching you the "psychology of voting?" I'm actually curious about this.

Re: An inevitable march to the final two?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guilty of that too. Care to elaborate on what you mean by it teaching you the "psychology of voting?" I'm actually curious about this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I voted for Taylor in the final last year. My take on what the poster might mean-- it is so &*%T!@^!@^& annoying to repeatedly dial up and get a busy signal 80-90% of the time that you need to be incredibly commited to get in more than a few votes. The voting population includes some casual viewers voting for the best performer this week, or someone who just tuned into see the final and votes for their favorite, or someone who was a big fan of Lakisha and decides to vote for Melinda after Lakisha is eliminated. But the vast majority of the votes are probably coming from total psycho fans willing to madly push redial for a full two hours, or equally rabid tech-savvy fans who are able to pump in massive numbers of text votes (or possibly autodial with DialIdol).