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-   -   Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=396060)

PaulWilmot 05-05-2007 10:17 AM

Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player
 
So i've been playing 10/20 regularly.

Now one of my flaws or my style if you'd like is i *never* cap the PF if raised from behind or from SB/BB.
I do cap PF if 3 or more are in pot according to equity of a certain hand.
I have also stopped 3betting on flop with 2 overcards (i just call k/r), even with OESDs and flush draws w/o overcards - again unless with more people in the pot according to equity.


I use no software other than Poker Tracker and i have no reads on opponents besides notes and spectating. I lurk here.
I ussualy play one or two tables at most. Problem with it is i get pretty upset about suckouts and i try to "get back" on higher limits "where they respect my raises". I guess no need to go on from here.

Here are stats of my last bravura performance. http://x011.uploaderx.net/x/645_pt.jpg
Interpret results plz.
Comments greatly appreciated, tips, flames, everthing.

Hoi Polloi 05-05-2007 11:37 AM

Re: Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player
 
I cannot see the image.

Never capping pre-flop is a big mistake. Not playing draws aggressively against players who will fold the turn to aggression is a huge mistake (you cannot win without hitting your outs; your style makes you easy to play against). Tilting when your opponents make mistakes and suckout on you is a mistake; if you tilt huge, it is a huge mistake.

As you know, LHE is a game of variance. Don't risk flattening the top of the curve by trying to flatten the bottom of it. Just play good poker.

PaulWilmot 05-05-2007 12:10 PM

Re: Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player
 
http://img471.imageshack.us/img471/9200/ptuo6.jpg

justin 05-05-2007 07:13 PM

Re: Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player
 
Variance

Leader 05-05-2007 07:34 PM

Re: Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player
 
3K hands is nothing, bro. Focus on getting better not short-term results.

pegboy 05-05-2007 07:55 PM

Re: Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player
 
3000 hands? Forgive my ignorance but is this not a very small sample? I usually track at least 20000 hands before analyzing through the clouds of variance.

That said, you're losing money dude. I'm not about to figure out how according to that image. But I will tell you this. When I hear a player say he likes to play with players who can lay down more hands because they respect raises, that points to a big leak. Bad players call with second best. Good players win those pots. There would be smaller pots to win if they didn't call.

One of the biggest fallacies in poker is that it's easier to beat higher limits. Show me some of your stats from lower limits?

SteveL91 05-05-2007 08:22 PM

Re: Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player
 
To add on to what's been said, it looks like you might be doing a fair amount of limping; however, I obviously can't tell if it's over-limping or open-limping. If it's the latter, stop it; you're going to get isolated way too often. If it's the former, re-examine what hands you're willing to limp with and in what situations.

Playing ~34/24 while only stealing 38% of the time and folding your BB 55% of the time (IMO) signifies a fair amount of (and perhaps too much) limping. Now, it may very well be dictated by the game, but I would tend to doubt it given the typical landscape of 10/20.

ILOVEPOKER929 05-05-2007 08:35 PM

Re: Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player
 
If youre not sure you are a winning player then you probably arent. Put another way, if you are playing in a game and you are uncertain if you have an edge or not chances are no edge exists.

goofball 05-06-2007 04:22 AM

Re: Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player
 
Why on earth you would never cap preflop?!?!

PaulWilmot 05-06-2007 05:43 AM

Re: Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player
 
I never open limp. I only mix play in SB with limping/raising.
Situations where i do not cap are like this (OOP mostly). I am CO and raise, SB 3 bets, i just call with either JTo or KK.
I do 3 bet PF from BB only if SB raised, otherwise just call from whatever pos. raise had come.

Meh, i am confused i just have not experienced any larger downswings yet and its not pleasant because mind doesnt comprehend with losses too well.
Is Aggresion factor OK? Should i be more aggro where situation demands so?

donger 05-06-2007 02:15 PM

Re: Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player
 
[ QUOTE ]
If youre not sure you are a winning player then you probably arent. Put another way, if you are playing in a game and you are uncertain if you have an edge or not chances are no edge exists.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice post

secret.asian.man 05-06-2007 03:12 PM

Re: Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player
 
Your strategy to never cap pf in heads up situations might have enough merit that I could see why you do it (image considerations) although I prefer to just cap more hands instead of less.

Never capping pf in multiway pots though is beyond stupid, are you also doing that?

secret.asian.man 05-06-2007 03:14 PM

Re: Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player
 
[ QUOTE ]
I have also stopped 3betting on flop with 2 overcards (i just call k/r), even with OESDs and flush draws w/o overcards - again unless with more people in the pot according to equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having rigid postflop rules for yourself like these makes me think you are a losing player. You have to adapt to the situation.

johnnyrocket 05-06-2007 09:22 PM

Re: Help me analyze, not sure i am winning player
 
this could easily just be variance as it is a super small sample

NEVER doing things in poker is a huge mistake and easily exploitable to opponents that know you well, the best players adapt and throw curveballs all the time, u need to mix them in


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