200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

Villain is 27/18/3 over a solid sample. We were on a couple tables together and both tables I had been card dead, so I look very nitty. I don't have much personal experience with this player, just datamined hands.

Comments on flop/turn. Call river?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

<font color="black">Hero (SB): $200</font>
BB: $60
UTG: $219.95
CO: $199.20
BTN: $247.60

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $7</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $27</font>, BB folds, BTN calls $20

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($56) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $40</font>, BTN calls $40

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($136) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($136) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $65</font>, Hero

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

call i guess. Yuz getting good odds. I play it pretty much the same. If he bet turn I'd call and c/fold river.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

I think it's a call. Definitely for this much.

KJ bets the Turn. AT and JT would be pretty much folding the flop.

So the only hand he's he's likely to have that beats you now is QJ.

So there's a good chance you're ahead, you've shown a lot of weakness on Turn/River making him think he can take the pot (which is the value in not betting the River). And you're completely priced into it, as strong as your hand is. I'd even call a bit of a larger bet.

Call, if he's got QJ so be it.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

call. agree with above poster.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

fold you dont beat anything... its a 3bet pot. like at best you're splitting. why does no one see this? like i understand its blind vs button but i dont think we beat a hell of a lot and the river really looks like it wants a call.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

I would have bet the turn pretty strong, if I get a call then I play the river cautiously. You could have possibly avoided this decision altogether

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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I would have bet the turn pretty strong, if I get a call then I play the river cautiously. You could have possibly avoided this decision altogether

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Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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I would have bet the turn pretty strong, if I get a call then I play the river cautiously. You could have possibly avoided this decision altogether

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anyone shove turn ?
cus if we bet the turn that's pretty much what we're doing on any river

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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fold you dont beat anything... its a 3bet pot. like at best you're splitting. why does no one see this? like i understand its blind vs button but i dont think we beat a hell of a lot and the river really looks like it wants a call.

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This is pretty close to accurate.

A basic range of JJ+/AK has us completely owned. Of course he has other hands, but quite a few of them own us also (KJ/JQ/44/55).

However I'm not sure villian "wants a call" on the river - it could be a block bet also and I think we should fold due to his hand range, but it's tough to do with these odds but if I'm playing well I would fold this.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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fold you dont beat anything... its a 3bet pot. like at best you're splitting. why does no one see this? like i understand its blind vs button but i dont think we beat a hell of a lot and the river really looks like it wants a call.

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This is pretty close to accurate.

A basic range of JJ+/AK has us completely owned. Of course he has other hands, but quite a few of them own us also (KJ/JQ/44/55).

However I'm not sure villian "wants a call" on the river - it could be a block bet also and I think we should fold due to his hand range, but it's tough to do with these odds but if I'm playing well I would fold this.

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You thinks that's close to accurate? I think it's well out.
I personally think you and Kayfish are reading "he's gonna be too strong here" without working out ranges, and why.

Of the hands you've said that own us QJ is the only hand that is likely to not bet the Turn. There's not a lot of value in him not betting the Turn, unless he thinks we're a habitual river bluffer, and given the prior action we're either strong enough to call here, or not bluffing.

And it's a button steal, calling a 3B in position, from a 27/18. The guy does not need to have JJ+/AK. Not at all. There's a lot of hands he could decide to call in position with here.
(As for it being a blocking bet, it's on the river in position. It's either a value bet or a bluff. That's all.)

In short saying "you can't beat anything, you can't call" seems wrong because
1. We beat everything he can seem to have played this way except QJ.
2. We've Cbetted and then switched off on the Turn and River. He has every reason to think you can't call a bet.
3. By checking the Turn/River we are under-repping our hand and essentially inducing a bluff. You shouldn't be doing that with a hand that is strong enough to bet, and then not calling. Especially to a non-large bet. I think you're giving people a licence to steal otherwise.

So, hands that would have played this way we're behind
QJs.
Hands that could well have played this way we're ahead of
88-TTish, J/T9s (and any floats).
And we're tied with AK and giving up half the pot to (for a half pot bet)

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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I would have bet the turn pretty strong, if I get a call then I play the river cautiously. You could have possibly avoided this decision altogether

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I think this is pretty horrible advice. Mostly for the reasons stated. And I hear that too much here - "you could have avoided having to make a decision"

You don't make a play just to avoid having to make a decision. Sometimes it's more profitable to make a play that leaves us with a decision later. And this is an example of one of those cases.

If we bet the Turn we're folding out worse hands, and putting in too much money for the hands that beat us most likely. Checking the Turn here gives our opponent a decision. Does he bet the River without a hand? If we bet the Turn he has no decision and we've made life easy for him.

Doing it to avoid a decision is just not good enough. Especially when the river decision isn't even super hard.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

You misinterpreted what I wrote. I didn't mean that I would make that play in order to avoid a decision, its just that had you bet the turn, given what had occured in the hand thus far, villian may have folded and as a byproduct the river decision is avoided. But the turn bet was not in itself purely a way of avoiding a confrontation later. You check. then call the flop. A king comes which is possibly quite the scare card to villian if he has a hand like 10's or QQ's or what not.. and now he has the decision to make. If he has AJ he might be turned off by a formidable turn bet here. Just my thoughts anyways. . .

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

how can u possibly fold here?

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

What does villain have that we beat? That's what I'm trying to decipher.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

lol fold plz. u guys calling burn money good.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

that would be one sick value bet w/ TT

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

All I want to say is:

QJ/AT? U serious? Come now...

wdead, i like most of your posts, but the only reason we would call here is for strictly TOP reasons, and we dont need to even get into that here.

this is a clear fold.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

I think a fold is good here. If villain was an aggro donk I'd probably call as some idiot could have 88 here and turn their hand into a bluff on the river.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

fold. I bet you will see a set here a bunch.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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I think a fold is good here. If villain was an aggro donk I'd probably call as some idiot could have 88 here and turn their hand into a bluff on the river.

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fwiw turning 88 into a bluff here one river isnt bad.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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You misinterpreted what I wrote. I didn't mean that I would make that play in order to avoid a decision, its just that had you bet the turn, given what had occured in the hand thus far, villian may have folded and as a byproduct the river decision is avoided. But the turn bet was not in itself purely a way of avoiding a confrontation later. You check. then call the flop. A king comes which is possibly quite the scare card to villian if he has a hand like 10's or QQ's or what not.. and now he has the decision to make. If he has AJ he might be turned off by a formidable turn bet here. Just my thoughts anyways. . .

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Yeah, judging by this post, He didn't misinterpret you at all, and you are still wrong for the same reasons.

You don't WANT him to fold if the K is a scare card for him. Getting villain to fold QQ or TT is on the turn is [censored] terrible, and you make it sound like it's a good thing.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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I think a fold is good here. If villain was an aggro donk I'd probably call as some idiot could have 88 here and turn their hand into a bluff on the river.

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fwiw turning 88 into a bluff here one river isnt bad.

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The only better hand that an average player folds is TT, which makes it a terrible bluff.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

dude there are like a million hands we beat here. 88, 99, 1010, 67, etc. I cant see how you guys possibly fold this. Villain never puts on AK and is prob value betting worse or bluffing something

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

I still don't see any logic from those who say fold here. Just throwing out "you have to beat here", "he wouldn't bet worse", "it's often a set". How about coming out with some that the action suggests?

What damn set? The only credible one is a rivered QQ.
And that and QJ are the only hands you should have to worry about.

And yes, bluffing with the underpair for half of the pot here is great given the number of people who seem to think this is a clear fold with a hand as strong as AK, with very little beating it. It's not even as if villain bets the full pot on the river and we have to think it over some. He's made it easy.

Again, throwing out "you're beat" when the action dictates that very few hands are ahead of you is just bad thinking. Not least when villains river action follows hero considerably underrepresenting his hand...

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

I'll try not to be results oriented as I attempt to explain this. But in retrospect I feel my thought process should have been something similar to this.

I said in the OP that most of what villain had seen from me was very nitty; probably 16/12 range. So I think for him to call my 3-bet he has to hold a pretty strong hand. It isn't as though I gave him really good odds to call the 3-bet either (w/ hands like 44, 55). I made a larger than pot sized bet.

Since my image is so tight I think we can narrow down his calling range PF and on the flop. Don't you agree?

He isn't calling PF w/ AJ and I doubt AQ. I also doubt he is calling PF w/ anything less than 88, but I won't rule out other pps.

Then on the flop I don't think he can make the call w/ AK, 88-TT; given my image I don't think he makes that call. I honestly believe he needs 44, 55 (discounting the small pps), JJ or QQ to simply smooth call this flop. I know it sounds way too tight a range to give him but given my image don't you think we can narrow it down pretty well right there?

So I hit tptk on the turn and feel pretty good about it b/c now I am mostly worried about JJ. But he checks through the turn and bam the river Q. So honestly I doubt he is getting to the turn w/ a hand that doesn't have me beat on the river. Doesn't that make sense?

Now the odds are really good on the river but when we take into account my image and the actions + cards on each street do you really think he is going to bluff TT or less here? If I did c-bet w/ AK, AQ then I just got there and I think he would make a larger bet to push me off my hand.

So considering how tight he had seen me playing (unless he has datamined hands on me) I really think his PF and flop calling ranges go way down. Even if he called PF w/ any pp I really don't think he is calling the flop w/ anything other than 44, 55.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

Dirte, what you're saying first of all is you didn't call, so we won't ever know what he had? Is that right?

Secondly I think you're overestimating image. You can't count on it, and opponents to react on it, at this level. Many opponents aren't observant enough, are too busy playing lots of tables, or just don't care.

There's a lot of opponents who call your PF raise with an underpair, and call the expected flop continuation bet, like wise with a suited connector containing a Jack. Because they're happy to be ahead of AK. Which is what you have.

When the Turn hits he realises the hand he was ahead (AK) he is now behind. He's happy to check.

When the River hits and you still check his thoughts could well be "damn?! he got nothing?!". And there comes the bluff. It seems you've given up on the pot.

And to say "he'd bluff a bigger amount" is fine. Except you can't just fold to small bets because they aren't bluffs, and call big bets because they might be. That's saying you're not willing to put a bit in to win the pot, but you'll put a lot in.

You think he checks JJ/55/44 on the Turn? I don't. You're only behind QQ and QJ. He could have either. If he has neither you're good.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

Betting the river is so much better than check/call

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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Dirte, what you're saying first of all is you didn't call, so we won't ever know what he had? Is that right?

Secondly I think you're overestimating image. You can't count on it, and opponents to react on it, at this level. Many opponents aren't observant enough, are too busy playing lots of tables, or just don't care.

There's a lot of opponents who call your PF raise with an underpair, and call the expected flop continuation bet, like wise with a suited connector containing a Jack. Because they're happy to be ahead of AK. Which is what you have.

When the Turn hits he realises the hand he was ahead (AK) he is now behind. He's happy to check.

When the River hits and you still check his thoughts could well be "damn?! he got nothing?!". And there comes the bluff. It seems you've given up on the pot.

And to say "he'd bluff a bigger amount" is fine. Except you can't just fold to small bets because they aren't bluffs, and call big bets because they might be. That's saying you're not willing to put a bit in to win the pot, but you'll put a lot in.

You think he checks JJ/55/44 on the Turn? I don't. You're only behind QQ and QJ. He could have either. If he has neither you're good.

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No, I did call. And that is why I am worried about being results oriented. But in retrospect I feel like I should have considered my image. But maybe you're right. I feel like this particular player pays as much attention to the games as I do, plus we were on 2 or 3 tables together. So he could easily see that I had been playing tight, but I could be wrong.

fwiw, he had JJ for a sneakily played top set.

But no, I wouldn't necessarily call a larger bet. The reason I called the river was b/c he bet so small; which gave me good odds b/c his range probably doesn't have me worse than 3:1.

Isura, why is betting the river better than c/c? Don't we fold out all hands we have beat and only get called, and probably raise, by all hands that have us beat? Plus, if we bet river and he raises we're committed to get all in and we are never ahead. Right?

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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Betting the river is so much better than check/call

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elaborate please?

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

Let's make a couple of assumptions.
1. Opponent didn't float the flop. This should be pretty obvious because of the turn check.
2. Opponent rarely has a set. Again, because of the turn check.
3. Opponent would check down AJo/AJs/JTs on the river

Given these assumptions, let's assign a reasonable range to get to the river this way and then bet. {66-TT, QJs, QQ}

66-TT = 30 combos, QJs = 2 combos, QQ = 3 combos.

Let's say he only bluffs with 66-TT 50% of the time. He "should" have 66-TT ~85% of the time based on combos. Let's do an EV calc:

-65*15% + 201*85%*50% = $75

If my assumptions were true, folding is obv. a giant mistake. Let's skew them a bit and do another EV calc. Let's say he would check two pair/ or a set on the turn ~25% of the time. Let's also say that he would only bluff with 66-TT 30% of the time.

44/55/JJ/KK = 10 combos; KJs = 2 combos. 66-TT = 30; QJs = 2; QQ=3

-65*11% + -65*25%*50% + 201*64%*30% = $23


I think calling is clearly +EV. Someone please check these calcs. for me. Manipulate the assumptions as you like, but I think one would be hard pressed to prove to me that calling is -EV.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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Betting the river is so much better than check/call

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elaborate please?

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he can't cause that's an ugly line.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

Yeah... If you don't reraise light against button openers and then c-bet a dry flop, then its probably not good to bet this river.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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Yeah... If you don't reraise light against button openers and then c-bet a dry flop, then its probably not good to bet this river.

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Forgive my ignorance, is this sarcasm? I've read it 15x and it doesn't make sense to me. Do you mean that the villain's calling range will be too strong if the hero's 3betting range is too narrow?

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

call this all day

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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Yeah... If you don't reraise light against button openers and then c-bet a dry flop, then its probably not good to bet this river.

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Forgive my ignorance, is this sarcasm? I've read it 15x and it doesn't make sense to me. Do you mean that the villain's calling range will be too strong if the hero's 3betting range is too narrow?

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basically. if hero never 3bets light or bluffs in 3bet pots a river bet is basically a bluff.

as for the hand. i don't like the assumptions that he can't check behind w/ a set. even though that hurts the case for calling i still call just b/c we don't have a strong enough read to do otherwise.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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Yeah... If you don't reraise light against button openers and then c-bet a dry flop, then its probably not good to bet this river.

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define 3-betting "light"

It changes for me though. Sometimes I'll run at 30/28 and others I'll run at 16/12. It partly depends on the cards and partly on the opponents. During a session earlier today I was running about 32/30 on one table and 15/14 on another over 150 hands.

Anyway, during the hand I was sure this was a clear call but results prompted me to ask.

I checked the river to induce the bluff and I got it, so I can't fold unless I have a spot on read. I just like to hear feedback and confirmation that I'm not a donk.

jk3a made an awesome post. That kinda [censored] takes some time and I think we can all learn a lot from posts like his.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

i cant believe there are so many people that think a fold is in order here...this should be a 3-4 post thread IMO...i agree with sharksandwich 100% NO WAY AM I FOLDING HERE...A turn bet is ok, but I think your line is perfect

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

Okay, I don't understand this thread at all. Maybe that's why I'm breaking even for a bunch of hands, I don't know.

First of all, this is a button open vs blind reraise hand, which make both ranges pretty damn wide.

Second, why would villain believe Hero has gotten any part of this flop? He could be calling with any of his midpairs, Jx hands, draws, or hopes and dreams of running some weird bluff line.

Turn: I'm torn between betting and checking here. We've got TPTK in a re-raised pot, so it's obvious that we can't just let go. Stack and pot size are such that we could give villain real attractive odds to call us down and still get our stack in. Or we could hope he tries to bluff us out or valuebet a worse hand, and get his stack that way. The problem is that right now, our hand looks pretty good. But any T or higher, and 7 or lower will make this board look very ugly.

River: as played, I can't imagine folding to this bet. This could be any two cards that called flop for whatever reason, checked turn because they got scared, and are trying to buy the pot on half price on the river.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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I'll try not to be results oriented as I attempt to explain this. But in retrospect I feel my thought process should have been something similar to this.

I said in the OP that most of what villain had seen from me was very nitty; probably 16/12 range. So I think for him to call my 3-bet he has to hold a pretty strong hand. It isn't as though I gave him really good odds to call the 3-bet either (w/ hands like 44, 55). I made a larger than pot sized bet.

Since my image is so tight I think we can narrow down his calling range PF and on the flop. Don't you agree?

He isn't calling PF w/ AJ and I doubt AQ. I also doubt he is calling PF w/ anything less than 88, but I won't rule out other pps.

Then on the flop I don't think he can make the call w/ AK, 88-TT; given my image I don't think he makes that call. I honestly believe he needs 44, 55 (discounting the small pps), JJ or QQ to simply smooth call this flop. I know it sounds way too tight a range to give him but given my image don't you think we can narrow it down pretty well right there?

So I hit tptk on the turn and feel pretty good about it b/c now I am mostly worried about JJ. But he checks through the turn and bam the river Q. So honestly I doubt he is getting to the turn w/ a hand that doesn't have me beat on the river. Doesn't that make sense?

Now the odds are really good on the river but when we take into account my image and the actions + cards on each street do you really think he is going to bluff TT or less here? If I did c-bet w/ AK, AQ then I just got there and I think he would make a larger bet to push me off my hand.

So considering how tight he had seen me playing (unless he has datamined hands on me) I really think his PF and flop calling ranges go way down. Even if he called PF w/ any pp I really don't think he is calling the flop w/ anything other than 44, 55.

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Your hand ranges for villain are insanely tight. Who folds TT in this spot? Since he checked the turn he is going to have a monster or a hand with showdown value, not a hand that wants to bluff the river. So the play is to value-bet or check/fold here IMO. You guys are over-estimating how likely it is that players at small stakes will turn a made hand into a bluff in a big pot.

Re: 200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I'll try not to be results oriented as I attempt to explain this. But in retrospect I feel my thought process should have been something similar to this.

I said in the OP that most of what villain had seen from me was very nitty; probably 16/12 range. So I think for him to call my 3-bet he has to hold a pretty strong hand. It isn't as though I gave him really good odds to call the 3-bet either (w/ hands like 44, 55). I made a larger than pot sized bet.

Since my image is so tight I think we can narrow down his calling range PF and on the flop. Don't you agree?

He isn't calling PF w/ AJ and I doubt AQ. I also doubt he is calling PF w/ anything less than 88, but I won't rule out other pps.

Then on the flop I don't think he can make the call w/ AK, 88-TT; given my image I don't think he makes that call. I honestly believe he needs 44, 55 (discounting the small pps), JJ or QQ to simply smooth call this flop. I know it sounds way too tight a range to give him but given my image don't you think we can narrow it down pretty well right there?

So I hit tptk on the turn and feel pretty good about it b/c now I am mostly worried about JJ. But he checks through the turn and bam the river Q. So honestly I doubt he is getting to the turn w/ a hand that doesn't have me beat on the river. Doesn't that make sense?

Now the odds are really good on the river but when we take into account my image and the actions + cards on each street do you really think he is going to bluff TT or less here? If I did c-bet w/ AK, AQ then I just got there and I think he would make a larger bet to push me off my hand.

So considering how tight he had seen me playing (unless he has datamined hands on me) I really think his PF and flop calling ranges go way down. Even if he called PF w/ any pp I really don't think he is calling the flop w/ anything other than 44, 55.

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Your hand ranges for villain are insanely tight. Who folds TT in this spot? Since he checked the turn he is going to have a monster or a hand with showdown value, not a hand that wants to bluff the river. So the play is to value-bet or check/fold here IMO. You guys are over-estimating how likely it is that players at small stakes will turn a made hand into a bluff in a big pot.

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I know they're insanely tight, but I only came up with that range b/c of my tight image.

Maybe I am completely over analyzing this hand lol. But it is in these marginal situations that I think there is many bb/100 to be won/lost.

However, as many have already stated this is not a fold by any means. I just feel that his range is narrowed b/c of how tight I had been playing but then again I could be overestimating the thought process of villain; even though he seems to be a solid player.

In a vacuum this is an easy call and would only require 3 or 4 responses to the OP. But I am trying to go a little deeper than the standard situation.

I still don't understand why you think a bet is better than a c/c. I really don't think he is calling the river w/ a worse hand.