have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

10$+R 270/314 runners...weird table tight at the beginning, but then i shoved some random rags and showed after folding my first 30 so hands during the rebuy period (was busy playing some other tables).


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG+1 (t20407)
MP1 (t9975)
MP2 (t3445)
MP3 (t9505)
CO (t6120)
Hero (t4670)
SB (t7630)
BB (t12688)
UTG (t3800)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls t150, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls t150, Hero calls t150, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (t675) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t675) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

River: (t675) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets t450</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1800</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t3650</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t5500</font>, Hero...runs the clock down to 27sec...26sec...25....24....



Hero can't beat any other BOAT
oh and i know that i should've bet that turn at least 1/3 pot at min.


what do you guys do? what do you think they have?
100% fold? 80% fold? after that river 4 bettting...



~vlad

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

Hurry up and call for gawds sake ...

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

ummmmmmmmm wha? Easy fold

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

bet turn

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

You have to call. You are going to be shown all sorts of hands: straights, trips, Queens up, and sometimes tens full. People often play crazy just after the rebuy period closes and if you fold your stack is in pretty bad shape. If you win you have a chance to do some damage.

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

guys hes not just getting raised by one person. honestly you have at best the 2nd best hand here, and alot of the times u have the worst. u cannot call this river bet and if u do its definitely -ev and -cev in the long run, is noone watching the river action? dude check raises the river and gets reraised anyway. are we hoping for ace ten and jack king?

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

this is a sick spot. I really can't seen you beating anything here, but "zomg u has a boat!" In the heat of the moment I probably call, but I'm not happy with it at all. I mean UTG check/cold3bet, that's scary. Then CO goes and raises that? yeah, a fold here is probably best.

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

You have a full house and are going to pay 2750 to see 9325

please call this ...

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

oh yea, why aren't you betting the turn?

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

OP agrees he should have bet the turn, so lets lay off him there.

Is this after the rebuy period? If so, i think its a super easy dump, you are absolutely no good whatsoever.

If however, you are in a rebuy period, i could see a call, you could be up against a st8 or a couple of 10s, or, hopefully, some retards, but i just dont like it

Also, many pokertards will check their quads once or twice, then go apeshit on the river.

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

in a cash game i INSTAFOLD this after that river action, here i had to think before folding.


my first thoughts were that im up vs 99s (9s full), since i didn't really think that QT checks that turn, but i have seen trips slowplayed to death in 10$ MTTs. i totally agree i HAD to bet that miracle turn, but i missed it (maybe cause i was like ZOMG free 2 outer me, and had few other tables going AND had people over, but still it was my mistake not to bet that turn).

it was 2k~ to call into 12K~ on the river to be exact.


i fold i have 2k stack with average being around 10K+, i call i have 14K+ stack, above average on a juicy table. (i love having bigger stack, well who doesn't)



~vlad


p.s. since they was a showdown, anyone cares as to what they had?

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

although its a good idea to bet this turn i don't think that changes this hand much. If either have trips/boat the money gets in on the turn, if the Q filled them they would have been there for it anyway. The only thing checking the turn did was allow for the Q to come off to possibly make a straight. There is a good chance you are beat here, i would say one of them could possibly have trips/straight but one of the others i would think is full. Admittedly it probably isn't the best move but i would probably call for 2 reasons. Average stack he says i 10k, folding leaves him with only 2k, he's damn near out anyway. Plus i don't think its that uncommon to see one guy with trips here and the other guy with a straight and you kick yourself for folding the boat...

Again, its probably the wrong move but i call

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
although its a good idea to bet this turn i don't think that changes this hand much. If either have trips/boat the money gets in on the turn, if the Q filled them they would have been there for it anyway. The only thing checking the turn did was allow for the Q to come off to possibly make a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not betting the turn changes the hand completely. We make a ton more from a T when we bet the turn. We also might make some from a 9 before a river card comes off. Lastly, we don't give infinite odds to someone drawing to a 2 outter to beat us.

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

Zeeeebo!
My first inclination is to fold, but the only hand that beats you that makes any sense is the CO having T9. I think I'd rather call and lose with a full house than fold the best hand.

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

Grunching:
I'm thinking you have to call because you've done nothing to define your hand. For all we know, UTG is FOS because no real hand should be check-raising that river (he should be betting because he doesn't want the river checked down), and CO could just be overplaying a straight/AT/etc.

If someone was slowplaying T9, good for him. He probably gets all your money if you bet the turn anyways.

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

There are also possible straight and flush draws that are drawing dead and will often call a bet on the turn. I also hate giving someone with a 10 a free card to beat me, even though they have plenty of implied odds to call. Missing the turn bet was pretty bad.

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

Who is betting this that we beat
Tx - yes
strt - yes
two pair - often Yes w Q more so as noone has show any strengh
You are only beat by 5 hands and I don't see UTG checking river w TT 99 t9 t4 so UTG has TQ or we are ahead. CO may have checked TT 99 t9 t4 on flop and turn... and if so lets pay him off for his good play and move on.

I think you are likely ahead 50%+ and 4500 to call a 9000+ pot CALL

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

i ended up calling with my 44s, eventhou i can't beat any other fullhouse, only because if i fold i have no chance in advancing further in the tourney, but if i call and by any chance my hand is good i have a good shot at winning that tourney. i called they both had KJ for the nuts straight and i scooped 14K+ pot.


funny thing is that i bubbled with in 44th or so when my AA run into JJ and QQ all in preflop 3 way....Q hit obv. but that 44 pot def. helped me.





~vlad

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
i ended up calling with my 44s, eventhou i can't beat any other fullhouse, only because if i fold i have no chance in advancing further in the tourney, but if i call and by any chance my hand is good i have a good shot at winning that tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad it worked out for you, but this is a pretty bad reason to make a call.

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

i do understand that my hand is no good there like 90% of the times or more, but it was a MTT and with the stacks, pot, etc...i made the call on quick impulse. but like i said i INSTAFOLD my hand in a cash game there even after the 3 bet, no need to wait for the CO to put the 4th bet in.

i think i was just lucky there, thats all. thanks all for your analysis and advice



~vlad

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
if i call and by any chance my hand is good i have a good shot at winning that tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad it worked out for you, but this is a pretty bad reason to make a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed ... that reasoning makes for a lot of donkish plays

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

please explain, since in my belief i play MTT to win the most $$$ possible in each one (and winning obv = most), and folding and trying to cash would give me close to no shot at doing so. this is where the difference b/n a cash game and a MTT was to me.

btw. i do make donkish plays, but trying to minimize them slowly

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

I make donkish plays all the time

However ... "if I call and by any chance MHIG" is a bad reason to make a play ... well, don't admit it. Use math or a sick read as your reason ... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Hope and a prayer is -ev

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
please explain, since in my belief i play MTT to win the most $$$ possible in each one (and winning obv = most), and folding and trying to cash would give me close to no shot at doing so. this is where the difference b/n a cash game and a MTT was to me.

btw. i do make donkish plays, but trying to minimize them slowly

[/ QUOTE ]

Your decision should always be based on the $EV of the play. Nothing else should matter. If I'm at the FT of the WSOP and 6 people move all in PF in front of me, I shouldn't call with my 68o just because if I win I will basically have the tourney locked up. I need to analyze the $EV of making the call and make my decision based on that.

So in your scenario, if we determine that one of the guys has a better full house 90% of the time, then the $EV of you calling off your chips would be negative since the pot is not laying you enough for when you win to make up for all the times you lose.

etc. etc. etc.

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

got it, thank you. makes more and more sense

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
please explain, since in my belief i play MTT to win the most $$$ possible in each one (and winning obv = most), and folding and trying to cash would give me close to no shot at doing so. this is where the difference b/n a cash game and a MTT was to me.

btw. i do make donkish plays, but trying to minimize them slowly

[/ QUOTE ]

Your decision should always be based on the $EV of the play. Nothing else should matter. If I'm at the FT of the WSOP and 6 people move all in PF in front of me, I shouldn't call with my 68o just because if I win I will basically have the tourney locked up. I need to analyze the $EV of making the call and make my decision based on that.

So in your scenario, if we determine that one of the guys has a better full house 90% of the time, then the $EV of you calling off your chips would be negative since the pot is not laying you enough for when you win to make up for all the times you lose.

etc. etc. etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I don't think that the reason OP gave is always necessarily wrong because not all equally +/-cEV spots are equal.

If a similar situation arose and folding would leave you pushbotting but calling left you in a strong position on the bubble, then I think we can/should make a -cEV call.

Also, the exact cEV of this situation, if marginal, cannot be adequately determined. Who really knows, in actual fact, just how many people out there can stack off lighter than the smallest boat after this action? Without knowing whether it's 5% of online players at these buyins, or 70% (and the former figure would surprise me more) we can only roughly estimate the cEV. And, where there is reasonable doubt, err of the side of getting your chips in.

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

I never mentioned cEV in my post. That was done on purpose.

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I never mentioned cEV in my post. That was done on purpose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Firm but fair. Nevertheless, I wanted OP to understand that he is on the right lines in that $EV and cEV are not the same and that our decision to call or fold in a marginal and somewhat inestimable situation should take into account other factors.

We can make an EV evaluation in this hand this mathematically but 1) our data is very incomplete 2) it's complicated maths to perform within the timebank.

About the data, guys who've decided to CR always CR nomatter what happens behind and guys who've flopped an OESD and don't bet it over two streets and get action when they river their miracle card, get overexcited. And people who've slowplayed trips don't fold.

Anyway, I don't mind OP's reasoning. If we need to be good say 25% of the time here and depending on how likely based on specific reads and general trends in online play, we decide that we're good anywhere between 15 and 30% here, then we should err on the side of risky accumulation.

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

{deleted first part of this as I didn't read far enough in the thread before responding and this topic has been covered}

The other things that impact my thought process here:

1) It's a low $$$ buy-in, so a lot of people are going to get overzealous with any kind of hand better than TP.

2) Nobody (including hero) showed much interest until the end. If that Q had to play, then the str8 is a real possibility.

3) Even though it sounds like it's after the rebuy period, sometimes the tone in rebuy tournaments is a little more crazy than other MTTs. People tend to bet more aggressively

I've laid down a boat before, so I'm not a call-em down at all costs donk. But I just can't see getting away from this.

Re: have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!
 

I've only read the OP, but you gotta call this. It's a freaking $10+R for gawd's sake, people are 4-betting straights, trips, hell there could even be some tard with KK or AA trying to play catch-up here. CCCAAAALLLL

You'd be amazed at what you get shown in these things, I'm never folding a boat in a $10+R (unless there's trips on the board and my boat is like... 22)