Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

20 players left in a $22 180 tourney on Pokerstars. I have AKo in the BB. Blinds are 300/600, I have 13500, button has about 14500. Everyone folds to the button, who open pushes for 24X the BB. BB hasn't pushed once in the 20 or so minutes I've been at his table, no maniac behavior or anything. So, do you call this ridiculous bet for all your chips or just fold?

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

i call quick. almost every time youre flipping, have a 60/40 or have him dominated.

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

I folded, figuring I didn't want to put my tourney at risk for a possible coin flip when I had a good chip stack. I just wonder if that's way too soft a play or justifiable.

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

This is an instacall.

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

good fold - pocket 2s are beating u also i doubt he would bet that much with AJ or AQ just to pick up blind - you have good stack can get better spot

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

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good fold - pocket 2s are beating u also i doubt he would bet that much with AJ or AQ just to pick up blind - you have good stack can get better spot

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yes he would raise that much with AJ/AQ especially, they dont want to see a flop.

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

I'd assume buttons range is very wide here. In fact, this is almost never AA/KK, so you are at worst a coin flip. I don't mind getting into a coin flip situation here because the blinds are coming up fast and winning will give you a FT stack and a shot at the real money of this tourny (In reality, though You are better than a coin flip, usually a 60% and sometimes even higher when he's pushing with an A or K).

Not to mention we are almost to the bubble and having a 20K+ stack will be awesome for abusing it. You could easily end up with a 35K+ stack for the FT if you pick good spots for stealing blinds.

Bottom line: we didn't start this thing to sneak into the money- we came to win and you are going to have to double up a few more times to do that. This is a great opportunity- you should take it.

That people fold AK here is what makes pushing marginal hands on the button profitable.

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

Um, instacall?

Hasn't been mentioned, with 20 left, only 2 til money, so if he's "playing the bubble" he could easily be pushing ANY TWO from the button.

Seriously, folding here is really bad IMO

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

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good fold - pocket 2s are beating u also i doubt he would bet that much with AJ or AQ just to pick up blind - you have good stack can get better spot

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yes he would raise that much with AJ/AQ especially, they dont want to see a flop.

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I agree but what is he stealing - 900 in blinds? I think AJ AQ he'd rather play a hand with the blinds. More likely 88-JJ IMO

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

Want to gambooooolll? Call (I would regardless of where ITM starts. AK is a top tier hand)

Want to play passive - fold if you just want to make ITM...

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

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I agree but what is he stealing - 900 in blinds? I think AJ AQ he'd rather play a hand with the blinds. More likely 88-JJ IMO

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they dont play like you.

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

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I think AJ AQ he'd rather play a hand with the blinds. More likely 88-JJ IMO

[/ QUOTE ]Why? An overcard type hand is more likely I think because he'll want to make sure he gets to see all 5 if he's called.

But none of that matters, really. The range you've assigned is way to narrow. Heck, QJo is probably in his range.

Seriously, folding here is bad.

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

This is instacall. Never fold AK in 180 seaters. If you really think about folding in this spot, you're playing scared money and probably beyond what your bankroll can afford.

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

Actually, I think this is a PP here like 90+% of the time. Sometimes this is AK too. Very rarely is this Ax where x is less than K. But, I think it might be just often enough to make this a call.

FWIW, with a hand like 66,77,or 88 this becomes closer.

Call because I can't fold AK PF.

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

call, and i don't know where this idea that a stack just above 20BB was big enough to pass up an edge of this size came from, but it needs to go away again

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

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I'd assume buttons range is very wide here. In fact, this is almost never AA/KK, so you are at worst a coin flip. I don't mind getting into a coin flip situation here because the blinds are coming up fast and winning will give you a FT stack and a shot at the real money of this tourny (In reality, though You are better than a coin flip, usually a 60% and sometimes even higher when he's pushing with an A or K).

Not to mention we are almost to the bubble and having a 20K+ stack will be awesome for abusing it. You could easily end up with a 35K+ stack for the FT if you pick good spots for stealing blinds.

Bottom line: we didn't start this thing to sneak into the money- we came to win and you are going to have to double up a few more times to do that. This is a great opportunity- you should take it.

That people fold AK here is what makes pushing marginal hands on the button profitable.

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Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

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Very rarely is this Ax where x is less than K.

[/ QUOTE ]If villain is pushing with AK here, what do you think he is doing with AQ?

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

AQ is not a premium hand, according to the books, whereas AK is so I don't think people feel obliged to felt AQ. They do feel obliged to felt AK but they don't know what to do when they whiff so I kind of agree that AQ is somewhat rarely played thus and AK somewhat often.

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

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Very rarely is this Ax where x is less than K.

[/ QUOTE ]If villain is pushing with AK here, what do you think he is doing with AQ?

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What registrar said. This is one of those situations where the guy has a hand he know he wants to play, but isn't sure how to play it. And he knows that pushing can't be that bad. I typically see mid-pairs doing this. Basically they are saying, "OMG, I don't want to see a flop!" Rarely is this Ax, but it is often enough something like AT. I don't know why, but I feel like villain's are more likely to push AT here than AQ. Probably again because, "OMG I don't want to see a flop!"

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

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AQ is not a premium hand, according to the books, whereas AK is so I don't think people feel obliged to felt AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree with that statement, but I don't think villain is trying to felt a hand here.

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

Ah the psychology of donkish play!

Since this is quite an academic discussion, I'll let it go- you two are probably right. I've played a few to many 4/180s I believe [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

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AQ is not a premium hand, according to the books, whereas AK is so I don't think people feel obliged to felt AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree with that statement, but I don't think villain is trying to felt a hand here.

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Perhaps I don't know what the verb 'to felt' means but hasn't villain just felted his hand?

Re: Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?
 

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Perhaps I don't know what the verb 'to felt' means but hasn't villain just felted his hand?

[/ QUOTE ]Hmmm, I've always thought 'felting a hand' would be ACTUALLY getting it all in, not just betting all in (meaning he was called). He might not want to go to the felt with AQ but still move in, believing that on average the blinds will usually just fold.

Regardless of the terminology, I meant that I didn't think he was looking for a call by moving in, so his range is wider than only hands he wants to show down.

WWHD? (Harrington)
 

HOH v 2 gives an almost identical example. Ok, he puts it at 3 different stack sizes, but here's the jist. . .

You are getting 1.07/1 odds on your money. If you are up against a pair you are 1.22/1 dog here, so it would be an idiotic call. You really have to factor in a few Ax hands for it to be an auto call. What range do you think he has?

My guess for an unknown is 66-JJ, as they wouldn't donk qq+. YOU are never against AA, KK. And I feel like you have to have a read against a guy to think he's doing it with SC or random 2 with M=15+.

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

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If you are up against a pair you are 1.22/1 dog here, so it would be an idiotic call.

[/ QUOTE ]If villain SHOWED me QQ I'd insta-call in this spot, and I don't think that's idiotic.

Why? Because even if I assume that I have a better than 45% chance to double up later in this tournament, I think that a double up here right before the bubble is worth more than doubling up later.

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

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If you are up against a pair you are 1.22/1 dog here, so it would be an idiotic call.

[/ QUOTE ]If villain SHOWED me QQ I'd insta-call in this spot, and I don't think that's idiotic.

Why? Because even if I assume that I have a better than 45% chance to double up later in this tournament, I think that a double up here right before the bubble is worth more than doubling up later.

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I think you should quickly grab up all your money in the checking account and take it to the casino. Bet it all on black or red on the roulette wheel. Hell, a double up today is worth more than tomarrow, due to inflation and all. Some "pro" gamblers will tell you that you can't expect to win against the wheel, but they obviously haven't taken into account the double up principle

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

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I think you should quickly grab up all your money in the checking account and take it to the casino. Bet it all on black or red on the roulette wheel. Hell, a double up today is worth more than tomarrow, due to inflation and all. Some "pro" gamblers will tell you that you can't expect to win against the wheel, but they obviously haven't taken into account the double up principle

[/ QUOTE ]Your analogy is terrible. I don't even understand what "they obviously haven't taken into account the double up principle" means. My observation was simple. Villain has a 45% chance to double up here vs. QQ. If he believes his chances are less than 45% to double up by folding and finding a better spot, then he should take the 45% chance now. It's a tournament and hero won't make a significant payout without doubling up.

This has nothing to do with taking a losing bet in a casino. If this were the situation in a cash game and villain showed QQ this is obviously a muck. But this isn't a cash game, and cEV != $ev. I believe the advantage hero gains by doubling up now before the bubble, combined with the risk that he probably does not have a greater than 45% chance to double up due to the structure of the game, makes calling greater $ev than folding, even if it -cEV.

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

Nice post Jeff.

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

First, cEV does not equal $EV. It would be lesser than $ev. So you start out with what you admit is a -EV bet (qq vs AK) and add to that the fact that your 'payout' in chips isn't 1:1 in terms of money, it makes it EVEN more -$EV. And we all like money, right?

Or to put it more simply, 'why would a book lie to a person.'

I don't see how you can rationally disagree with this, unless you are saying that villians RANGE is fairly wide, ie. maybe A9+, 22+, KQs, for example, or any two. Others have suggested it.

I personally don't think so. Educated opinons differ. I try not to think that my opponents are completely ignorant, perhaps that's -EV.

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

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I try not to think that my opponents are completely ignorant, perhaps that's -EV.

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in a 180, theyre mostly ignorant

but, you keep giving up these +EV spots, saying youll find a better spot. sure you bust ootm sometimes, but the times you win youll at leadt make the final table and make a run toward winning it. meanwhile, youll keep folding premiums to obvious weakness and blind down waiting for aces, and fizz out at final 2 table...

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

How is this even a question? I don't understand, I have seen many villains in a $20/180 shove 67s, or QJo, or A5, and RARELY see them shove AA or KK here. I want somebody to give me an actual range that this is a fold to, and if you ONLY include pairs in your range, you are making really bad hand assignments, I think this question would be harder if I had 66, or AJ, not AK.

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

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First, cEV does not equal $EV. It would be lesser than $ev. So you start out with what you admit is a -EV bet (qq vs AK) and add to that the fact that your 'payout' in chips isn't 1:1 in terms of money, it makes it EVEN more -$EV.

[/ QUOTE ]Yet you ignore the benefit of having a bigger stack to play on the bubble, which ADDs $ev to this equation. I believe you are overestimating the non-1:1 relationship between chips and real money at this point in the tournament.

But let's remove the potential big-stack-abusing-the-bubble benefit from the equation because that is really hard to quantify (and it is slight, though so is the amount we are behind in the hand).

Do you believe that hero has a greater than 45% chance of doubling up if he folds? Because that is what this is really about.

If you believe you are a better than 80% chance to double up you should not risk your tournament life PF by calling with AA. If you believe you are better than 75% chance to double up you should fold an AK vs AQ confrontation PF. The reality, is though, that no one is that good, especially in a fast structure like this one where you are quickly forced to push substandard hands that certainly do NOT have a greater than 45% chance of doubling you up.

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

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How is this even a question? I don't understand, I have seen many villains in a $20/180 shove 67s, or QJo, or A5, and RARELY see them shove AA or KK here.

[/ QUOTE ]This is accurate and why this is a trivially easy call.

However, the "do I call with slightly -cEV?" is an interesting question.

Re: WWHD? (Harrington) [final retort]
 

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First, cEV does not equal $EV. It would be lesser than $ev. So you start out with what you admit is a -EV bet (qq vs AK) and add to that the fact that your 'payout' in chips isn't 1:1 in terms of money, it makes it EVEN more -$EV.

[/ QUOTE ]Yet you ignore the benefit of having a bigger stack to play on the bubble, which ADDs $ev to this equation. I believe you are overestimating the non-1:1 relationship between chips and real money at this point in the tournament.

But let's remove the potential big-stack-abusing-the-bubble benefit from the equation because that is really hard to quantify (and it is slight, though so is the amount we are behind in the hand).

Do you believe that hero has a greater than 45% chance of doubling up if he folds? Because that is what this is really about.

If you believe you are a better than 80% chance to double up you should not risk your tournament life PF by calling with AA. If you believe you are better than 75% chance to double up you should fold an AK vs AQ confrontation PF. The reality, is though, that no one is that good, especially in a fast structure like this one where you are quickly forced to push substandard hands that certainly do NOT have a greater than 45% chance of doubling you up.

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And responding to this:

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How is this even a question? I don't understand, I have seen many villains in a $20/180 shove 67s, or QJo, or A5, and RARELY see them shove AA or KK here. I want somebody to give me an actual range that this is a fold to, and if you ONLY include pairs in your range, you are making really bad hand assignments, I think this question would be harder if I had 66, or AJ, not AK.

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Again, most intelligent and winning people on here will say that this is most likely PP hands in this range. Again, OP's read said "he hadn't done anything in 20 minutes, was tight." Why would AA, KK, or AQ- do this. People that are saying he is shoving any two I don't think are reasoning the hand through, or are rookies that only learned in the last month that they should become aggressive on the button, and are now in the stage of development where htey are 2nd leveling that strategy from thier opponents. Yeah, I've seen people do dumb stuff, but villian has M bigger than 15+. He's not under blind pressure. THINK, what type of hands make a coward "I dont want to see a flop" M=15+ all in bet come from, from tighty?

I'm not playing scared, and I don't give a rats ass about bubbling or making the money. THis hand has 3 important components:
1) the HUGE, almost lock liklihood that he has PP
2) the fact that you are at 15=M, so you don't have to gamble
3) the odds, again 1.22:1 > 1.07:1. YOu aren't getting odds. cEV<$ev, so chips aren't worth an equal proportion of money, moreover.
4) "the villian hadn't pushed in 20 minutes. No maniac behavor or anything"

And yes, I think I can double up much more often than 45% in these situations. Give me an M of 8 and I'll double up more often than that. I"ll steal 5+ blinds before the bubble bursts, maybe a resteal if hte opporitunity presents itself, which BTW would be a huge chunk of my stack. Hell, even if I get caught with my hand in the cookie jar its tough to be less than 40%. The beauty of m=15ish stacks is that these opporitunities are everywhere.

ITs obviously a trivially easy call if:
Your or his M is smaller, 10ish.
You think you are a weak player
YOu have some READ that says he might push a wide range that includes, say, A9+, in addition to PP's.

If he std bet, hell yes I'd be restealing. So its not passivity. I'd resteal a 2.5x-3x std bet with just about any two against this type of player, because if he's doing stupid stuff like this you should have a READ on him by this stage in the tournament. The coward be says he'll be easy to push around. Why give that up?

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

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But this isn't a cash game, and cEV != $ev.

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This is very, very wrong.



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I believe the advantage hero gains by doubling up now before the bubble, combined with the risk that he probably does not have a greater than 45% chance to double up due to the structure of the game

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If that's what you believe, than your opinion is perhaps valid. I feel like i'll double up a 7-15M stack MUCH more often than 45% of the time.

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

i like how glass says its 100% impossible for him to shove AT-AQ here which is plenty possible.

i also like how hes saying people who didsagree with him are donks, while hes trying to justify folding AK to a button shove.

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

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i like how glass says its 100% impossible for him to shove AT-AQ here which is plenty possible.

i also like how hes saying people who didsagree with him are donks, while hes trying to justify folding AK to a button shove.

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Well Dan Harrington and the math agree with me, if, and we disagree here, his range is exclusively PP's. As an afterword, I was sitting on this table and unlike OP I did have a pretty good read on villian. FWIW.

Again, I'd resteal with it,
I'd call if I'd bet 2.5x and he set me in,
but I won't call an open shove of 24BB to this opponent, on the button.

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

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but I won't call an open shove of 24BB to this opponent, on the button.

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then you need to reread HoH and/or learn basic poker strategy.

you cant put him on only PP. you CANT. stop thinking you can. something tells me that you really are scared of finishing out of the money, even though you deny it. no other reason your consider folding

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.119% 44.90% 00.22% 553516488 2742246.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 54.881% 54.66% 00.22% 673857900 2742246.00 { JJ-22 }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.052% 50.04% 05.01% 1079669844 108074640.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 44.948% 39.94% 05.01% 861683916 108074640.00 { JJ-22, ATs+, ATo+ }

and that second range is too tight

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

Thanks for the feedback, some great posts here. For the record, after I folded he showed AQs, FWIW.

I didn't see the decision as playing too passive or tight -- I was jumping at the chance to resteal until he floored me by pushing himself -- my thought process was that I had plenty of time to steal blinds on the bubble, resteal a time or two and maybe find a better spot to gamble.

Do I have a problem thinking that 22XBB is a good enough stack to stay patient? I wouldn't pass up a spot where I had even a small edge, obviously, but I was convinced this was a PP. And if he showed me a PP before I made my decision, I would fold. Is that too weak? And I don't care much about getting ITM at that point (it's better than not getting ITM, but it's not significant), but when I looked at my chances of going deep into the FT, I didn't think it was correct to call a push for what I thought was a flip. So I'm glad to get the feedback.

Re: WWHD? (Harrington)
 

this thread made me die a little inside