6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

So we've just seen the Top 6 perform. Someone is going home tonight (well OK we all know Lakisha is gonzo...).

Who gonna win this thing? Here is a pole:

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

Well we know who you didn't vote for.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

I see that Vegan has voted. I vote Melinda, but my confidence in her beating Jordin is slipping.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

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I see that Vegan has voted.

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That was my first thought, but it's hard to believe that he wouldn't have posted something.

I'm going to be surprised if it's not Jordin.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

lol who the hell voted for Phil? People let's take this voting business seriously!

Thanks.

-Al

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

- Al,

Just wait until I decide to throw around the weight of my gimmick accounts.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

I voted for Phil. I misread the question -- I don't think he has the best chance of winning, but he is "my horse" in that I have the most invested in him. I bought shares of Phil at 50-1 a couple of weeks ago. I think that he's undervalued by this board and if he continues to put in good performances, I think he has a reasonable chance to make the final 3.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

oops, I voted for melinda because i misread the question as 'who is a horse'

but seriously, I don't know how anyone could pick anyone but melinda to win this. I'm particularly big on her, but she is the only performer who has been consistantly very good or better. if I had to pick one person and was forced to stake my life on it it would be melinda.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

MJ - whoops my bad, will make thread title clearer for next AI pole. Also, I'm beginning to think Phil has a more than reasonable shot at Top 4.

-Al

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

Eastern - ok damn my playful thread title wording. I know we're all betting on this but I thought I made the pole clear in the OP. This with the soon to be invasion of the Daddy's gimmicks... I'm not sure how good these pole results will be.

-Al

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Eastern - ok damn my playful thread title wording. I know we're all betting on this but I thought I made the pole clear in the OP. This with the soon to be invasion of the Daddy's gimmicks... I'm not sure how good these pole results will be.

-Al

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I think the early results reflect the prevalent beliefs about AI this year--of the remaining 6, only two stand out enough to win.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

Eastern - yeah, true. Although Jordin could've been replaced with Lakisha early on, and Blake in the middle I think. Blake has really fallen from grace (due to being a mediocre vocalist) and really Lakisha has done herself in.

BTW has this always been the case with Idol? My understanding was last year was much more of a crap-shoot between 3 or 4 contestants with 6 to go.

-Al

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

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BTW has this always been the case with Idol? My understanding was last year was much more of a crap-shoot between 3 or 4 contestants with 6 to go.

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Yeah. I didn't play the game last year, but to a casual viewer (unaware of lines), it seemed like Taylor, Elliot, Daughtry and McPhee all had weeks where they were the best. I think that's why this year is so boring.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Eastern - yeah, true. Although Jordin could've been replaced with Lakisha early on, and Blake in the middle I think. Blake has really fallen from grace (due to being a mediocre vocalist) and really Lakisha has done herself in.

BTW has this always been the case with Idol? My understanding was last year was much more of a crap-shoot between 3 or 4 contestants with 6 to go.

-Al

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Top 6 was all daughtry (45-60 range), I see a similar fate for melinda

Final 2 probably Jordin 55 vs Melinda 45 but Melinda could easily go like daughtry did, based on dial Idol shes not dominating anymore, meaning people are getting tired of her and shes not picking up votes as much as the others. Very possible she goes out 3rd in a shocking ellimination.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

It might be interesting to do three seperate polls:

1) Who do you think has the best chance of winning right now?
2) Who do you think is the most undervalued right now? (which answeres the thread title, "Who is your Horse,")
3) Who is the most overvalued?

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

blake is definitely my favorite contestant this year (although I don't think he has a very good chance of winning), he has definitely slipped the last two weeks with his performance. I don't think there was anything wrong with the performance itself this week, just that the song doesn't lend itself to being very exciting or terribly entertaining. I'd predict that in the next two weeks he really steps up his game and gives a good performance to outlast at least lakisha and phil.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

Rooting for Jordin, mostly so I can keep bumping my post from like a month ago saying she was a good buy at the time (price was around 13 iirc), and that she had a good chance at winning.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Final 2 probably Jordin 55 vs Melinda 45 but Melinda could easily go like daughtry did, based on dial Idol shes not dominating anymore, meaning people are getting tired of her and shes not picking up votes as much as the others. Very possible she goes out 3rd in a shocking ellimination.

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I wonder if she'll give the surprised look when she's eliminated.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

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I see that Vegan has voted.

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That was my first thought, but it's hard to believe that he wouldn't have posted something.

I'm going to be surprised if it's not Jordin.

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Hey who else would vote Lakisha at this stage. Truley I don't think she'll win but I think she can win. I still think she is great value if she survives tonight. My true choice would be Melinda with Jordin second. The guys IMO can not win. In fact I will quit betting Idol if one does. I really have won every year of Idol. This year it's been pretty bad.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

Don't be too hard on yourself - I think a lot of people here were heavy on Lakisha early on (and I feel bad for the people who bought her in the 30s) but when the bad signs show, sometimes you have to bail.

This season is getting a little annoying now, IMO. Melinda still has impeccable vocals but I really am bored of her. I wish she would sing a "current" song and just put her spin on it. I like Jordin a lot and I'd like to see her win because I think it'd be great success for a kid like her, but the judges constant pimping of her almost infuriates me. Best vocal in AI history last night? I nearly puked. It wasn't even her best performance.

From a gambling standpoint, I'm tempted to cash in my profit on my Melinda and Jordin shares, but then I figure I could probably make more if I just stick with the game.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

Thing...
Have you taken any profit at all...or have enough shares to take some profit now and FR the rest of the way?

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

Most of my profit is unrealized. I'm set up right now where, if I let it all ride, I'll have a decent profit if Melinda, Jordin, or Blake wins. Actually, if Blake wins, I'll probably break even since I liquidated much of that position at a small loss.

I need to keep some Jordin to hedge the over 24 bet at Bodog. I kept hitting that for the max every time the line moved, so there's some exposure there if Jordin runs away with this. I also have several straight wagers on Melinda that I can't do anything with (besides hedge).

I'm fairly risk-averse, so I'm likely to maintain my positions such that I'll earn a modest profit regardless of who wins (of the front runners right now) rather than go heavy on a particular contestant and risk only winning a small profit or breaking even.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

Right now I'm like

Melinda +$5600
Jordin +$5600
The 4 Scrubs -$12000

And voted for Jordin because of looks and marketing. Melinda has the better voice....but she just looks horrible. A three way between Shrek, Eddie Murphy, and a horse type horrible.

Not sure I can do much more than that. Should Phil or Blake, through some miracle of vocal chords, make the final 2 against Melinda or Jordin, I doubt their odds would be anything lower than 4-1.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

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Don't be too hard on yourself - I think a lot of people here were heavy on Lakisha early on (and I feel bad for the people who bought her in the 30s) but when the bad signs show, sometimes you have to bail.

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From the beginning I picked Melinda and Lakisha but I didn't bet on either because I didn't like the odds. I started betting on Kiki when I started getting 9-1 odds or more. Hence my statement the best 9-1 shot ever. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

So if Melinda has no neck, then her and Jordin are currently what in this pole, neck and shoulders?

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

Very nice.

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

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pole

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What's with all the pole references in this poll thread?

Re: 6 Left - Who Is Your Horse?
 

[ QUOTE ]
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pole

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What's with all the pole references in this poll thread?

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Best pole in 2p2 history

-Al