Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

I'm thinking about giving up poker. In the last year, I have gone all-in about 1000 times, and should have won 74%. I have won 24%. I am down $650,000 from my EV. I am still up a little overall, but it's so hard to take the frustration of constantly losing all-ins. I have probably tilted off $200k or so because of this. My bad luck is consistent between sites and in live games. I don't believe in luck, but I run so bad it just can't be explained through statistics.

I've been above my EV on all-ins two days in the past 3 months. I keep hoping it will stop, but it never does. In all seriousness, how many times do you lose before you give up? I can't spend Sklansky dollars, and this is the most frustrating way to earn $3/hr. Has anyone ever experienced this or know someone who has? I honestly don't know what to do.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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I don't believe in luck, but I run so bad it just can't be explained through statistics.



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sounds like me in MTTs for 7 months.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

get more fold equity

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

WHATS UR SCREENANEM

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

I call BS. 24% real money vs 74% Sklansky bucks over 1000 hands is like winning the lottery 3 times in a row.

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i certainly wouldnt give up, OP. sooner or later you're due for a SICK UPSWING!

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

If you ran averagely over the last year you would have made 850k given what you say. This means that if you run hot you are going to be a millionaire within a year no doubt.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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I have gone all-in about 1000 times, and should have won 74%. I have won 24%.

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Dude, this is sick. The odds owe you 500 allin wins more than you deserve just to get back to even. Move up and just try to play the biggest pots possible for allins and you should be good.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

how did you keep a track of this?

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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how did you keep a track of this?

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I'm assuming he used a sklansky bux calculator. Here's a thread that does a good job of explaining what it is and how to use it.


Skansky Bux

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

Cliff notes - wah, wah, wah.

Ok I'll bite. Don't know if it's a joke, but it's a timely post for me. I've played a lot of live poker and it's so ridiculous that I can remember the exact two times the deck has hit me in the face this year. I've lost count of the amount of sessions where I was card dead or ran stupid bad. The scale is so one sided it defies the logic that luck balances out.

Same with online. I run ahead to a certain amount and like clockwork, come back down and stay in a range. Beat all the shortstacks, but lose to all the big stacks when AI. Not losing overall but far from a big winner.

The problem for me is that I know one thing is true when it comes to playing poker seriously. If you don't have the discipline to sit down at the table and just fold, or to take a ridiculous run of sick beats in stride, you can't beat the game. There will be plenty of sessions like that and the inability to deal with it means you're not cut out for it.

My problem lately is maintaining the desire to maintain that discipline. I'm just really tired of not getting my fair share of luck. Let alone a good run. It's frustrating. Actually, it's demoralizing.

I've never been one to tilt. I get up and walk away before I tilt off my stack. Lately though I've found myslef making -EV plays because I figure I'm due to for my fair share of good luck. The thoughts of an uninformed, undisciplined amature. I realize that when I start thinking like that, I've been beaten down pretty good. It's demoralizing.

Good news is everything else in life could always be better, but it's good.

As I'm about to submit, I'm thinking "probably a really bad post." What the hell. It's the truth. GL OP. It happens to everyone.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

I call bs. I just did the following simple calculation in R:

> pbinom(240,1000,0.74)
[1] 7.039336e-239

Basically it is saying that if you are flipping with 74% chance the probability of winning less that 240 flips after doing 1000 flips total is less than 7.039336e-239. This doesn't mean that it is impossible but makes your story extremely not credible.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

I fudged a little for drama =). The 74%/24% were from my 100 biggest hands, but the rest aren't helping. I'm about 70%/65% overall, but that doesn't do a good job explaining the overall results. I didn't use the calculator, but keep track of hands in Excel. The sheet was started at first to help me keep my sanity after a horrible run, but then it started to devour my soul. It's amazing how just a little -EV every day affects your winnings and mental health.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

What a baby. Run bad for 11 years than talk to me...Its a sick game, person who invented it should be hanged in the middle of the street, but I love it

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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I fudged a little for drama =). The 74%/24% were from my 100 biggest hands, but the rest aren't helping. I'm about 70%/65% overall, but that doesn't do a good job explaining the overall results. I didn't use the calculator, but keep track of hands in Excel. The sheet was started at first to help me keep my sanity after a horrible run, but then it started to devour my soul. It's amazing how just a little -EV every day affects your winnings and mental health.

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its about a million times more likely that you're doing the math wrong than actually running this bad

that may be a conservative estimate

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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i certainly wouldnt give up, OP. sooner or later you're due for a SICK UPSWING!

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It's not exactly like he's more probable to hit a rush than anyone else.....

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

roulette history-bet it all on black next time?

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

Without either some data to back this up or a long history of posting & demonstrated practice, this kind of post has little value, it won't be given much credibility nor should it. While people can go on sick swings for large ranges, even 20k-50k+ hands, the further it gets out of that range the more unlikely the op's claims get.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

there are always going to be statistical outliers on the luck scale. the reason you hear about them slightly more often on this site is because this is the only place where the sick fucxks who have the worst aberrations might continue to play.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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i certainly wouldnt give up, OP. sooner or later you're due for a SICK UPSWING!

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It's not exactly like he's more probable to hit a rush than anyone else.....

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ades you're out of your element here. do you know anything about elementary rush theory, or the comeback probablility cycle?

suffice it to say, he's due.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

Low winrate=high variance

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

If he's down that much on his all in's he'd be down overall, not making the $3/hr he's claiming, that makes his #'s even less credible. Obviously some people have had more short term 'luck' than others but how many hands do you think he's had to play to be all in 1k times? The #'s in his post simply don't add up so I'm not inclined to give it much credibility that he's calculated his sklansky bucks honestly/correctly either.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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Low winrate=high variance

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No.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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Low winrate=high variance

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No.

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No that's not the case? or no that's not true?

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

Does anyone actually believe anything in the OP?
The only thing that might be true is
"I'm thinking about giving up poker."

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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Low winrate=high variance

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No.

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he probably means variance to EV ratio LDO

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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ades you're out of your element here. do you know anything about elementary rush theory, or the comeback probablility cycle?

suffice it to say, he's due.

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omg LOL [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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ades you're out of your element here. do you know anything about elementary rush theory, or the comeback probablility cycle?

suffice it to say, he's due.

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omg LOL [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

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Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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i certainly wouldnt give up, OP. sooner or later you're due for a SICK UPSWING!

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It's not exactly like he's more probable to hit a rush than anyone else.....

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ades you're out of your element here. do you know anything about elementary rush theory, or the comeback probablility cycle?

suffice it to say, he's due.

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Solid.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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WHATS UR SCREENANEM

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You're most likely broke on sklansky bucks too. My friend is exactly like you. Seriously though, read.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

Bad luck... We all had that. Like having 4 flush since 26th February or losing 3 out of 4 flop nut flush on post-flop all-ins. Next time it will be better. Take a break, that's all.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

For other stories along these lines read "Table of sad stories (a cherished collection of actual bad-luck claims gathered in Gardena, 1973-78)" p.122 in Super System

excerpt " 'I was sitting next to this dude and who didn't believe how unlucky i say i am. So we kept track. He just couldn't believe it. We drew to ten flushes a piece. He ,made everyone and i didnt make any.' Odds against 67,141,150 to 1."


So yes quit poker. Then travel to Gardena, find this guy, buy him a shot and tell HIM your story.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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I've never been one to tilt. I get up and walk away before I tilt off my stack.

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Surely this is tilting? If you find yourself leaving a +ev situation because of a bad beat then you are on tilt.
Tilt has many faces

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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I've never been one to tilt. I get up and walk away before I tilt off my stack.

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Surely this is tilting? If you find yourself leaving a +ev situation because of a bad beat then you are on tilt.
Tilt has many faces

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Avoiding a situation where frustration is getting the best of you is +EV.

Re: Quit poker because of bad luck?
 

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I've played a lot of live poker and it's so ridiculous that I can remember the exact two times the deck has hit me in the face this year.

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The deck hit you twice?? Lucky Fker!! I can remember both flushes I hit.