Derby Picks
 

Does anyone have any early thoughts on this Kentucky Derby? I am hearing good things about Circular Quay but I have yet to do any real nuts and bolts homework.

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I'm taking whoever Pletcher has in- he's due

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I'm taking whoever Pletcher has in- he's due

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I am kinda doing the opposite..

I think Nobiz makes a step up in the Derby after some aggressive schooling to shake his greenness. Circular Quay should hit the super provided his doesn't run into traffic issues, whether he has enough to win would depend on the trip given his running style. Not a big Scat Daddy fan, I think Pletcher is going to have a rough day ala the 2006 Breeder's Cup, with only CQ showing up. SD was all out to hold off the likes of Notional in the Fl Derby with a sub-100 Beyer, so I am not impressed. Look for how Pletcher's horses run at CD the first week, I believe he had some medication concerns at CD and thus the subpar meet last fall.

There is no reason to bet Curlin on top, he will be a huge underlay, the fact that he was sold at a loss as a yearling with that impeccable breeding probably indicates he was not developing fast enough to be ready for a serious derby run, that he's come this far in so little time is impressive though.

In order of preference, Nobiz, Street Sense, CQ, Saturday & Scat Daddy; depending on how Pletcher is running at CD, I might move up Great Hunter and Hard Spun to super spots.

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Street Sense had a great workout today, I'd expect his number to drop.

I don't like Great Hunter at all, he has not impressed. I'm going to have to put Tiago in some of my exotics, just because of the good probability of hitting the board with a late charge, which almost worked last year for me with Jazil.

Nobiz and SD could end up being good values.

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Eyeballing CowCat, CQ, Saturday and perhaps HardSpun right now.

CC is out of Distorted Humor, sire of Funny Cide, also a Storm Cat foal, 49er is grandsire. Won Gotham and Illinois Derby, very surprised this horse has very nice odds, $1.5m 2-yr old sale, great bloodlines. A Pletcher horse, dual qualifier and all that. Some 'cappers don't even have him in the top 10, which is crazy, 3 for 4 this year, all in the $, raced as a 2-yr old.

To get 20-1 on this horse right now is a nice overlay. Led from the start in Illini, won drawing away by 2+ lengths. No reason to think he won't handle CD track. Good workout over the weekend, 3rd fastest of 33 horses at Keeneland who worked. [Derby pool 3 he was 15-1.]

Beyer is not great, but same or better than Stormello, Scat Daddy, Nobiz like Shobiz.

Curlin may be the best horse, but a definite underlay.

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My top 3 right now are Curlin...Hard Spun...Circular Quay. Obviously a lot can change between now and Derby Day.

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Is the love for Hard Spun simply that he has a good Beyer Rating? I have yet to see him run, but I always feel wary of horses that have not run in a real competitive race. He does have the "Philly Connection."

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Is the love for Hard Spun simply that he has a good Beyer Rating? I have yet to see him run, but I always feel wary of horses that have not run in a real competitive race. He does have the "Philly Connection."

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I don't think it's the Beyer, there are like 7 or 8 horses with 100+ Beyers, He does figure to benefit most from the extra furlong according to Tomlinsons but they were crawling home in the Lane's End so I won't be betting him on top, I like him on the bottom of the Tri with about 15 other horses [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] .
BTW new PPs are out.

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FWIW there's a thread on this in OGG, too.

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Nice interesting post, Bishop22. Knowing that Curlin was RNA tells me you dig into this pretty deeply! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I am not sure who I will bet in this race. I want to see how things go early in the week, and who's actually in the race.

Hot activity at CD this week is not an absolutely reliable indicator, either. I recall the year Monarchos won it, he had done all his speed work in the weeks leading up to the race. In the week or so pre-race, they just gave him long gallops of about 2 miles. Nothing sexy in that, so the press quit even going around that barn, being much more interested in who had just worked a bullet five.

This year is truly unique, in that so many of the contenders have done a lot of their work and racing over synthetic surfaces. This has never been true to this extent before this year. It's hard to say which will like the surface at CD.

Also there's a real crowd at the top, vying for favoritism, and this means there'll be some fabulous prices after you get past that crowd, and the race looks wide open to me.

I am not too crazy about anything coming from the west this year, as I think they have had kind of a down year.

I guess this year, the word I would use to describe this race is "random." None of the "stand-outs" really stand out. It's a great year for a crush, but you have to be ready to throw your tickets on the ground, because you can't cover them all. One guy said he's going to hit "all." I don't guess he has thought that over very carefully. And if you or I have no solid opiniuon, there's nothing wrong with just putting a fiver on a longshot and having a julep.

I'll check back later in the week and if I have any insights I'll throw them out there for what they are worth.

bill

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I've never really go into Derby Day planning on making money. Just doing the research for the fun of it and to prepare for the Preakness and Belmont where I feel I can sometimes get an edge. Everyone knows the money is in the claimers anyway.

This year may be different though, if Curlin takes a ton of public money and misses the exacta as I am predicting then my exotics will be +EV. I have a feeling that the public will come to their senses and Curlin will not be the post time favorite.

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I have a feeling that the public will come to their senses and Curlin will not be the post time favorite.

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LOLOLOLOLLLLLLLLLLL!

First time for everything I guess.

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I have a feeling that the public will come to their senses and Curlin will not be the post time favorite.

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LOLOLOLOLLLLLLLLLLL!

First time for everything I guess.

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Street Sense will be favored at post time.

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Is the love for Hard Spun simply that he has a good Beyer Rating? I have yet to see him run, but I always feel wary of horses that have not run in a real competitive race. He does have the "Philly Connection."

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Well, I've been eyeballing HSpun for a while to figure out where he goes on my card - and given today's workout, he may go at the top. He ran 5 furlongs in 57 2/5ths, the fastest Derby week workout in 34 years. Yes, thirty-four.
He's won in rain, fast dirt, and Polytrack, the surface does not affect him.
He's 5 for 6 lifetime, sire is Danzig, only the N.A. sire with most stakes winners, ever, Lure, Danzig Connection, Pine Bluff, etc. HS is one of 5 horses in the Derby with 2 graded Stakes wins under his belt. At 18-1 he seems like a really good bargain, right up there with War Emblem at 22-1 and Monarchos in low double-digits [both of whom I had along with Smarty and Barbaro, both posted here].

In final race only Circular Quay and Curlin put up [slightly] better Beyers, and that was CQuay's only win this year. He looks great physically, one track writer called him 'Awesome-looking' before he ran today.

Curlin is about 5-1 now while Hard Spun is 17-1. I think I can spot the underlay and overlay.

Right now I'm thinking some order of Cowtown Cat, Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Nobiz/Tiago/Quay in the exotics. Of course, wait to see post position, final gallops, and track odds before I pull the final trigger.

Oh, the horse that ran 57-flat in his final workout. A horse you may have heard of -- Forego, 3-time Eclipse winner, 16 major Handicaps/Stakes wins, ranked #8th best horse of the Century.

So did he win the Derby? Nope, he lost to a big red horse named Secretariat, who of course set the track record.

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I think Tiago is going to be a money burner on the bottom of the exotics, crawling home in a less than stellar SA Derby as his only credential. When the HTR pace data comes out later in the week I'll probably have have some hard numbers to back up my BS.

Curlin is perhaps going to be the biggest money burner in derby history, I realize that a lot of the historical derby 'truths' have gone by the wayside recently but no horse since 1882 has won a derby without a single race as a two year-old, no horse has won with three lifetime preps since 1915.

I agree Hard Spun is a better bet than Curlin but I am not sold that this is a good spot, any hint of fragility in this race and I am passing. It'd be a small miracle if more than a couple horses avoid serious contact, let alone a horse that probably has to be close to the pace. The reason I haven't paid any attention to Cowtown Cat is also because he probably needs to be on the lead and I only see one pace horse factoring at most, not a specific horse just whichever horse benefits most from the post draw.

I really think its great that everyone is trying to find an angle, a wise-guy horse or whatever, makes for good discussion, I just really feel this is going to be a chalky year, if you ran this race 100 times, I think the big five of CQ, SD, NoBiz, SS and Saturday would win at least 90.

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Bodog Props are up..Naj, if you still think Curlin will be post-time fav you can lay @ -400.

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I just really feel this is going to be a chalky year, if you ran this race 100 times, I think the big five of CQ, SD, NoBiz, SS and Saturday would win at least 90.

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That's crazy talk. HSpun, CC, and Curlin have won 2 Graded stakes each -- only 2 other horses have done so in the field.

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lol_propaments? Curlin, CC and Hard Spun vs. SS, Nobiz and SD or draft, we each get ten horses after the post draw, either option is open to anyone else as well.

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lol_propaments? Curlin, CC and Hard Spun vs. SS, Nobiz and SD or draft, we each get ten horses after the post draw, either option is open to anyone else as well.

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As soon as you get them to run this field 100x, I will prop bet you up to $100k at your option.

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lol_propaments? Curlin, CC and Hard Spun vs. SS, Nobiz and SD or draft, we each get ten horses after the post draw, either option is open to anyone else as well.

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As soon as you get them to run this field 100x, I will prop bet you up to $100k at your option.

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Whoooooooo, ballsy.

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lol_propaments? Curlin, CC and Hard Spun vs. SS, Nobiz and SD or draft, we each get ten horses after the post draw, either option is open to anyone else as well.

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As soon as you get them to run this field 100x, I will prop bet you up to $100k at your option.

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No change to edgeaments?

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lol_propaments? Curlin, CC and Hard Spun vs. SS, Nobiz and SD or draft, we each get ten horses after the post draw, either option is open to anyone else as well.

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As soon as you get them to run this field 100x, I will prop bet you up to $100k at your option.

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LOL

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In order of preference, Nobiz, Street Sense, CQ, Saturday & Scat Daddy; depending on how Pletcher is running at CD, I might move up Great Hunter and Hard Spun to super spots.

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Bishop, I really respect your view of this race.. I share almost the exact same opinion as you on most horses. The only exception is I'm throwing out Circular Quay. He just looks like a sprinter to me.


The hard part now is structuring bets. There should be big $$ to be made by throwing out Curlin and Circular Quay from the top 2 spots (if you're right).


Subject to change:
Street Sense is the most likely winner. I will bet enough on him to make it a profitable day if he wins.

Nobiz Like Shobiz is my key horse though. Hoping to get anywhere close to 10-1. Afraid it might be closer to 8-1.
Will bet him to win large and structure exactas and tris keying him and Street Sense.

Others to use in exotics. In order of preference:
Any Given Saturday, Tiago, Dominican and Scat Daddy.

Just hoping that the top 2 get fair posts.

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That's like 8 horses you like.
Any chance of narrowing it down or ranking them - after the posts, I mean.

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Well, Curlin, Great Hunter, and AGSaturday got screwed with their posts of 2, 20, and 18 [which is not horrific I guess.]

St Sense, Hard Spun, Tiago, Nobiz got great posts.

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Ship it on Bodog.

Will the Queen's hat be decorated with a feather?
yes -300
no +200

Obviously, it will have multiple feathers.

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Ship it on Bodog.

Will the Queen's hat be decorated with a feather?
yes -300
no +200

Obviously, it will have multiple feathers.

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How do we know this? Tradition or something...sorry if Im the only person who doesnt know.

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I honestly don't understand why Hard Spun, who has the best lineage of any horse in the field [according to a majority of the experts, although it's easy to check] looks like he's going off at 15-1 to 20-1.
Usually, the wise guys are all over the 'best-bred' horse with good odds, esp if he has speed and can win in the mud.

Is the 6-week layoff that scary after Barbaro's domination last year? What am I missing here?

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Heck, I don't know. I just thought that it was amusing. You were being leveled. She was spotted this week not wearing a feathered hat, though.

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I honestly don't understand why Hard Spun, who has the best lineage of any horse in the field [according to a majority of the experts, although it's easy to check] looks like he's going off at 15-1 to 20-1.
Usually, the wise guys are all over the 'best-bred' horse with good odds, esp if he has speed and can win in the mud.

Is the 6-week layoff that scary after Barbaro's domination last year? What am I missing here?

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Hard Spun is indeed #1 pedigree, only marginally ahead of Saturday and CC. HDW data won't be out til Friday I'll post in-depth and mention if there pedigree numbers differ from Tomlinson.

The thing about pedigree is it only really applies when horses haven't been through a given distance or situation. That kind of applies to the Derby since that last furlong is big, but I think the races they have run to this point are more important. I think you can project the final furlong with a combination of pace of the past races and the pedigree data. Personally I give up unless the data reveals something, no reason to blow hundreds on exotics this year, I'd rather attack the undercard.

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Does anyone else question Curlin' picking the 2 slot instead of one of the outside gates? The horse has never been in traffic before and will certainly get bumped around that far inside. Is it really that scary to get caught wide on the first turn with a horse that is suposed to have all of this speed?

I think Street Sense could be the favorite by the time this goes off. I like Nobiz's post, I'm not sure I like showing up this late in the week though. I'm starting to come around on Hard Spun. I'm starting to put together some plays in my mind.

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Here are my official picks. They say it's looking like rain Saturday, but my top choices shouldn't be hurt by a wet track.

Based on $300 to spend on the race:

$80 win Street Sense
$120 win Nobiz Like Shobiz
$1 tri Nobiz/Street Sense over all
$10 exacta wheel SS/Nobiz over AGS, Dominican, Scat Daddy
$2 Oaks/Derby Double Cotton Blossom w/ SS and Nobiz

Good luck! Let's see everyone else's plays. Should be a great race.

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I honestly don't understand why Hard Spun, who has the best lineage of any horse in the field [according to a majority of the experts, although it's easy to check] looks like he's going off at 15-1 to 20-1.
Usually, the wise guys are all over the 'best-bred' horse with good odds, esp if he has speed and can win in the mud.

Is the 6-week layoff that scary after Barbaro's domination last year? What am I missing here?

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Hard Spun is indeed #1 pedigree, only marginally ahead of Saturday and CC. HDW data won't be out til Friday I'll post in-depth and mention if there pedigree numbers differ from Tomlinson.

The thing about pedigree is it only really applies when horses haven't been through a given distance or situation. That kind of applies to the Derby since that last furlong is big, but I think the races they have run to this point are more important. ...

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Yeah, and he's 5 of 6 lifetime. That's better than 90% of the horses in the race. Hence my confusion.

Of course, anything can and will happen in this race. I'm not saying he's a lock or anything, for sure, not like Smarty was teh lock of teh interweb.

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Shouldn't at least one of your top picks have a win, or even a race, in the mud if you think it's going to rain?

Just a thought, honestly not trying to be a wiseass.

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Shouldn't at least one of your top picks have a win, or even a race, in the mud if you think it's going to rain?

Just a thought, honestly not trying to be a wiseass.

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Fair point. To be honest, I have had more success not adjusting my selections for wet tracks than trying to figure out which horses benefit. Just to keep it simple I guess. I do reduce my bet sizes. In 2004 it rained and the race remained formful. I believe Smarty Jones and Lion Heart were the top 2 betting choices.

I can't hold it against Nobiz that he hasn't run on an off track before. Without a doubt, rain would help Hard Spun's chances.

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IIRC, Cliff's Edge was the top choice right before post, Lion Heart was not 2nd. And Smarty had run in wet or slop before, but I'dve to 2blcheck.

Go For Gin was a very easy pick for me at 8-1 in 1994, 2 races in rain, 2 wins. Rain on Derby Day....it was raining money, for me at least! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Where is "Myturn2raise?" He always had interesting comments about races.
[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
bc

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Naj, you are really starting to convince me on this horse. What does everyone think about the trainer and jockey angle here. I mean scat daddy has prado and pletcher but got just an OK post.

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Sam P ftw...anyone? no? maybe?

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Pino's a veteran jockey, been leading winner at Laurel, Pimlico, Delaware, been riding since the 1970s.
Breeder also succeeded with Creme Fraiche, who ran 2nd fastest Belmont of alltime behind Big Red.

I like Scat Daddy as well. Esp if it rains.

Again, horse has had 6 weeks off, and people are worried about the very fast time on Monday [Barbaro and Smarty also ran the best warmups Derby Week, but not nearly as fast.]
The main thing is, the odds are terrific. At 15-1 or worse, an absolute steal. Every horse in this race has weaknesses, they are lightly raced, no great Beyer's save one by StSense, and no horse has won off 2 preps since 1915, and he couldn't even beat Dominican last time out, who is another live longshot.

Give me great breeding, a solid vet jock [like Stu Elliott], a horse that's won 5 of 6, and big odds for this race, and I'll take it every time, Beyer 95 at 1 mile and stepped up big to 101 for 1+1/8th.

That's just how I think. Barbaro was 5 for 5 and Smarty 7 for 7, and somehow people outsmarted themselves even so, don't know why.

StSense, Curlin, Quay are all good horses, if they win I won't be surprised [okay with Curlin's post I will be].
And then there's the years a horse like Giacomo wins...with no prior victories...at 50-1!