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Variance: AA W%SD rate
This is a thinly veiled beat.
Please post your W%SD and the number of samples for AA. Stakes you play would be nice too. Thanks. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
10%
pocket pairs are so weak against hands like suited connectors, which have in many cases 8 outs or more |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
this is silly. how u play it has a hudge impact, unless it's all HU.
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Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
I only have 1 sample, but it's probably close to 1000 hands. However, it's on my other computer. I'll reply when I get home from work.
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Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
78%, 199 samples, 2/4NL
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Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
[ QUOTE ]
this is silly. how u play it has a hudge impact, unless it's all HU. [/ QUOTE ] Amazingly true. So help me figure out if it's my play or terrible luck. I think it's a mix of both. I'm rocking 64% over the last 160 times and I play them pretty fast both pre and post-flop. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
[ QUOTE ]
78%, 199 samples, 2/4NL [/ QUOTE ] Thank you very much. Please keep them coming. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
.5/1 90%
1/2 90% 2/4 77% 5/10 85% 10/25 100% --> Small sample The rest are at least 8k hands tho |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
[ QUOTE ]
.5/1 90% 1/2 90% 2/4 77% 5/10 85% 10/25 100% --> Small sample The rest are at least 8k hands tho [/ QUOTE ] Thank you very much. Can you please put how many occurrences you had of AA at each stake if it wouldn't be too much trouble? |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
122 times at .5/1 92%.
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Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
Are you guys sure you are looking at the correct statistic?
PT will show "Win %" and they will show "Win at showdown". One should be in the low to mid 90% and the other should be 65-80%. The one I'm looking for is in the far right column. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] .5/1 90% 1/2 90% 2/4 77% 5/10 85% 10/25 100% --> Small sample The rest are at least 8k hands tho [/ QUOTE ] Thank you very much. Can you please put how many occurrences you had of AA at each stake if it wouldn't be too much trouble? [/ QUOTE ] .5/1 - 87 (had just switched computers) 1/2 - 142 2/4 - 40 (moved up real fast) 5/10 - 197 10/25 - 5 |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
can u filter for # of opponents?
I'm 68% at showdown. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
[ QUOTE ]
can u filter for # of opponents? I'm 68% at showdown. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think so. I'm not 100% sure. How many samples of AA is that? |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
114
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Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
[ QUOTE ]
can u filter for # of opponents? I'm 68% at showdown. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. Go to preferences tab, then check use # of players in hand filter, and choose how many players you want to filter by. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
200NL, 319 samples, 78.38% W$SD
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Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
BTW, this is inherently very prone to variance because out of a large sample of AA, you probably only show down 1/4 of the time.
Even so, if you do a binary distribution with N = 30+ trials and P = 0.74 and 1 - P = 0.26, being less than 65% is pretty crazy bad luck. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
[ QUOTE ]
being less than 65% is pretty crazy bad luck. [/ QUOTE ] Unless you really suck and don't know when to let it go. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
$10 to $50 nl 47K hands
202 win% 91.09 W$SD 82.86 |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] being less than 65% is pretty crazy bad luck. [/ QUOTE ] Unless you really suck and don't know when to let it go. [/ QUOTE ] This is entirely plausible. Hence the reason for posting this. Thanks for your input. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
Looking at Hand Histories would be alot better use of your time.
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Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
now that i'm in front of my database...
i play 6 max small stakes nl there's some hul, hunl in there too 84.6% w$sd 140 times i've gotten it. wtsd 48%. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
you run HOTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
[ QUOTE ]
.5/1 90% 1/2 90% 2/4 77% 5/10 85% 10/25 100% --> Small sample The rest are at least 8k hands tho [/ QUOTE ] You have awesome br management |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
[ QUOTE ]
Looking at Hand Histories would be alot better use of your time. [/ QUOTE ] I've already done that. Checking all angles by posting this thread. I tend to not give credit to villain's having X on an XXY flop when I hold aces and I've been paying the price. Anyway, enough on strat in BBV. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
also, dude, how many times did u go to showdown. playing it fast pf, and u might lose a jj n tt here an there, and smaller pps too. so when u go to showdown oh wait ok.
ive gotten it dealt 282 times. went to sd 57% of them, and w$@sd is 77.27. they win 86.17% of the time and on average 7.44 bbs |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
GOD, you run hot TOOO. Jeeeeeeeeze. How low do you play?
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Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
[ QUOTE ]
also, dude, how many times did u go to showdown. playing it fast pf, and u might lose a jj n tt here an there, and smaller pps too. so when u go to showdown oh wait ok. ive gotten it dealt 282 times. went to sd 57% of them, and w$@sd is 77.27. they win 86.17% of the time and on average 7.44 bbs [/ QUOTE ] You are right. If I was to due any meaningful analysis it would have to include went to showdown %. Thanks for sharing your numbers. Your numbers are crazy... your overall win% is pretty low from what I've noticed historically in my database and your Win at Showdown is pretty damn high. FWIW for all the haters, my historical win rate for aces over the 300k hands I have in my database is 75% and I don't think I've made any changes (they've been for the better if any) in how I play them. I suspected that 75% would be about average and it seems to be the case. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
well mine with KK over 66 is 46.15%... had KK v AA 10 times in those 66...
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Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
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Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
[ QUOTE ]
All 200NL: http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/1253/aagg0.jpg [/ QUOTE ] This is awesome, thank you. This sample is huge. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
at NL100/200
AA 115 times, W$WSF = 91.38%, W$SD = 72.22%, BB/Hand = 5.68. So my BB/Hand is greater than Urbanati's, but my W$SD significantly lower. Or not that significantly, given my sample size. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
100NL: 88.9% 90 samples (+40 BI over 18k hands)
200NL: 62.1% 108 samples (-1 BI over 24k hands...) |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
10NL-50NL
106 times W$WSF: 76.56 W$SD 66.67 BB/Hand: 8.01 |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
Over 400 hands at 200nl 6max, and W$SD is 63. Also, WTSD is 51. Are these numbers way off?
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Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
http://img186.imageshack.us/img186/8977/aaaus3.png
Over 205k hands from 1/2 to 5/10 NL. Mostly 2/4 6max, like 10% is HU tables. |
Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
41 times, 80% W$SD
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Re: Variance: AA W%SD rate
30 W%SD over 244
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