650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

Hero is 22nd in chips only top 35 get seats. I haven't played a hand in past half hour. Villain is top 8 in chips and has been involved in lots of pots but hasn't done anything out of line or put lots of his chips at risk. What do you do on the flop and do you do anything differently preflop?

Hand #425
PokerStars Game #9446188013: Tournament #47153283, $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (800/1600) - 2007/04/16 - 00:12:47 (ET)
Table '47153283 35' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: 1CrazyCrab (65990 in chips)
Seat 2: TheActionKid (14916 in chips)
Seat 3: dudeoflife21 (29226 in chips)
Seat 4: LIVZ1973 (19226 in chips)
Seat 5: thanksB (51787 in chips)
Seat 6: NoSLOUCH (30525 in chips)
Seat 7: Vaga_Lion (24754 in chips)
Seat 8: VuaBluff (12420 in chips)
Seat 9: Yannick PONS (81351 in chips)
1CrazyCrab: posts the ante 75
TheActionKid: posts the ante 75
dudeoflife21: posts the ante 75
LIVZ1973: posts the ante 75
thanksB: posts the ante 75
NoSLOUCH: posts the ante 75
Vaga_Lion: posts the ante 75
VuaBluff: posts the ante 75
Yannick PONS: posts the ante 75
Yannick PONS: posts small blind 800
1CrazyCrab: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dudeoflife21 [Qs Qh]
TheActionKid: folds
dudeoflife21: raises 3200 to 4800
LIVZ1973: folds
thanksB: folds
NoSLOUCH: folds
Vaga_Lion: folds
VuaBluff: folds
Yannick PONS: folds
1CrazyCrab: calls 3200
*** FLOP *** [7h Td 3h]
1CrazyCrab: bets 27200

Hero?

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

Villain probably reraises you preflop with KK or AA and with that board JJ (which you love) is possible or perhaps AK of hearts (which you dont love, but probably cant fold to). I call here.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

I'd hate myself but i'd have to fold.

i'd put villain mostly on a made hand and he's way overbetting to get you to drop any draws, may of hit trips, could possibly be kk and wanted to see a non-ace flop before pushing, could be jj but i doubt if he pushes around an utg raiser like that when he doesnt have to. in reality villain doesnt need to do anything to most likely get the seat - is he smart enough to know that? suspect he is but thats very read dependent. if he's hasnt been pushing his stack around he's got a real hand

even if he's pushing with a draw which is a small percent of his holdings, your probably only a 60/40 in fav of winning and virtually guaranteeing yourself a seat.


think this becomes an easy fold and look for short-mid stacks to pick on

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

this looks like a stop and go with a pocket pair or ATs,

i think i'd call here, you have around 16 big blinds, and given the image of villain i think this is a very easy call,

i'm a cash game donk though,

but if you want to play it safe for the sat, i think we would have to know the relative stack sizes of the bottom 9 players left and how fast the blinds are escalating,

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

plz let us know what happened, and your thought process on what you did

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

for the record guys i think the responses here have been much more normal mtt strategy as opposed to a satellite. let me pose this question

if he folds lets assume he's a 70% chance (or pick your percent) of getting in. Do you really believe he has a 70% (or your pick) chance of winning this hand?

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

If you aren't calling on this flop fold PF.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

[ QUOTE ]
for the record guys i think the responses here have been much more normal mtt strategy as opposed to a satellite. let me pose this question

if he folds lets assume he's a 70% chance (or pick your percent) of getting in. Do you really believe he has a 70% (or your pick) chance of winning this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

as i understand your concern because this is a sat, let me remind you OP isn't in very good chip position to "coast" into the rewards

villain likely realizes this and hence thinks his FE is very high, however, you still have to take a stand in some of the spots in a sat in order to get it in, and i don't see any more situation that is more likely to come up than this to accumulate some chips,

besides, hero probably will get into the seat if he wins this, so this is pretty much the whole tourney here, and i think this is a call still given all the considerations

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

so i hear ya - the question is the comparison of the percentages - in essence your saying the odds of him winning this hand are greater then the odds of him getting in if he folds. I can accept that logic i'm just not convinced it holds

so let me reask it - if he folds what chances do you give him for getting in?

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

Open push.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

now that i like - something that says youre not going away

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you aren't calling on this flop fold PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly!!!
what board did u expect to see when u raised?
if u dont want to take risk so close to the buble dont raise PF

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you aren't calling on this flop fold PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly!!!
what board did u expect to see when u raised?
if u dont want to take risk so close to the buble dont raise PF

[/ QUOTE ]

POINT. If you were gonna take a flop, you got the flop you want. If you were gonna fold to a push with a flop like that, then might as well fold preflop.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

If it was a multi table tourney, I'd probably call and see what happens. But since it is a satelite to the WSOP, I would fold here. Had you committed a larger % of your chips preflop, then you would probably have to call but since you are realtively close to the bubble, I feel like you can still get the ticket with 25k in chips. Had you been reduced to under 20k in chips starting with 29k, you would probably have to make the call. Another thing to consider too is when you see an opponent raising a lot and involved in a lot of hands and then he decides to just to flat call your raise in this paticular hand, to me, something is up and I think you're in trouble.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

I wouldn't love it but I'd call.

Results please.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

Ok, so the villain obv doesnt have AA or KK or he would've repopped preflop. I ruled out a set because of the open push. That left JJ and I was 100% sure that's what he was doing figuring I'd have to fold pretty much any hand in my posiiton. If i call, i'm basically guaranteed a seat and I didn't take the timebank for this reason because I didn't want to talk myself out of a call. So i called and he shows 33 for the set....gg me. Looking back on it, I'm positive this has to be a fold played as is. Villain took maybe 5 seconds to call my bet from the bb. If he had JJ or for the sake of argument KK or AA he would've definitely taken longer to think about it. He stalled on the flop for maybe 15 seconds and pushed. In my mind the only hand he pushes with is a set here. There's just no way he's going to risk half his stack when he knows there's probably a 80 % chance i have a high pair in this situation and based on that flop be very tempted to call. Preflop I think open push is the right play. If he calls and misses though those extra chips would go a long way to increasing my chances of a seat. I wasn't sure how the tourney would play when it got down to this close and when I would be able to coast by getting blinds every 2 orbits or so would be good enough. If I fold and im down to 24,000, blinds are still relatively small enough where I think I can outplay the rest of the players. At the time though, I thought I could win my seat right there and not have to sweat the tournament bubble. Lesson learned.

dudeoflife

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

Like others said, that's the flop you want. No point in throwing in so many chips preflop if you're folding that flop.

Also, as said, I think the problem is preflop. Shove. Take the 5-6k in chips when he folds and quite possibly coast from there. If he's got AA or KK, life sucks, but oh well.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

dude what hapepend? i wanna know

also how did you get into this qualifier??

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

dude i'm sorry that it happened,

looking back at it, it was a very close call, and i think he shoved for the same reasons that you had to call

also the more i think of this, i think a shove is just fine PF?

plz tell me how you got into this qualifier and how you got this far deep in the tourney

i am trying to qualify too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

Looks like a call to me.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

The best way to get in this through the 27 rebuy qualifier. If that's too much, build up W$ through playing the $5 rebuy qualifiers to the 160 doubleshootout then use that cash to play the 27 rebuy. The $5 rebuy qualifiers are extremely soft and I advise you play them every chance you get. I only do the 27 rebuy if there are 40 or more players which usually is during the weekend. As for the tourney, shove PF definitely makes life much easier and eliminates the need to make a tough decision on the flop. Like I said, I wasn't sure how this tourney would play out once we got in the pseudo money (650 for top 48). I could probably have sit out for 45 min if I had folded that hand and been within 1 or 2 of a seat. If anyone out there can tell me how it plays when it gets to that point it would be much appreciated.

What got me this far in the tourney was playing very tight solid poker. There's no reason to make plays you would in a regular mtt and raise in late posiiton with say a KJ or JQ to try to take the blinds since they go up so slow. I got all in maybe 4 hands through the tournament when i had AK, AA, KK, and KK. I'm going to try to play the 1 K this friday as the 650 is a grueling 8 hour tourney. What dissapointed about the last tourney is villain gave me an out to fold and I didn't. Had he checked I would've had to push and he would instacall and I would be less dissapointed with how I played the hand. Let the nightmares in my head begin....

dudeoflife

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

wtf? who folds here? what would you need to call?

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

You made the correct play in my opinion so there's no point in regretting your decision.

Playing super tight is generally not the best way to get far in tournaments... see the anthology. If you aren't comfortable post flop then it is the best option though.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

[ QUOTE ]
You made the correct play in my opinion so there's no point in regretting your decision.

Playing super tight is generally not the best way to get far in tournaments... see the anthology. If you aren't comfortable post flop then it is the best option though.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's a sat, not just a tourney.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

I would need a set to call here but I wouldn't be raising wtih 33 or 77 but maybe 10 10. I've thought about this hand nonstop for the past day and realize that this hand is definitely a fold based on the BB's chipstack, the way he played the hand, and me being 29 out of 44 if I fold. Villain is simply not risking half of his chips without a set in this position. Maybe AK hearts but even then he wouldn't take the chance of losing half his stack when he knows he's probably going to get a call.

I agree with you that playing tight is not the way to go in most tourneys but this particular satellite it's acceptable. I changed strategies early on as my table was very aggressive and many pots were being contested so I chose to stay out of the way and let those donks try to outmanuever one each other. Pairdboard21, who's avatar looks like eric molina, was at my table and one of the chipleaders who absolutely self destructed in this process. To each his own.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You made the correct play in my opinion so there's no point in regretting your decision.

Playing super tight is generally not the best way to get far in tournaments... see the anthology. If you aren't comfortable post flop then it is the best option though.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's a sat, not just a tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what? The beginning plays the same as a regular MTT and he said about the beginning: "What got me this far in the tourney was playing very tight solid poker. There's no reason to make plays you would in a regular mtt and raise in late posiiton with say a KJ or JQ to try to take the blinds since they go up so slow. "

I would disagree in that it's often correct to be stealing the blinds a lot in qualifiers

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would need a set to call here but I wouldn't be raising wtih 33 or 77 but maybe 10 10. I've thought about this hand nonstop for the past day and realize that this hand is definitely a fold based on the BB's chipstack, the way he played the hand, and me being 29 out of 44 if I fold. Villain is simply not risking half of his chips without a set in this position. Maybe AK hearts but even then he wouldn't take the chance of losing half his stack when he knows he's probably going to get a call.

I agree with you that playing tight is not the way to go in most tourneys but this particular satellite it's acceptable. I changed strategies early on as my table was very aggressive and many pots were being contested so I chose to stay out of the way and let those donks try to outmanuever one each other. Pairdboard21, who's avatar looks like eric molina, was at my table and one of the chipleaders who absolutely self destructed in this process. To each his own.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should be calling a lot looser than a set. I still contend that your call is good.

I've only played in this tourney once and it does go very slow. But if you watch the better players in this tournament they will be picking up a lot of blinds cheaply and stabbing at many pots. Precisely because people like you are giving up pots too easily like here where you think you need a set to call.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

Ok, sorry I got off topic talking about strategy on what got me this far in the tourney. To the poster who asked me, pm me if you want more detail on playing these sats. To the hand in question, the circumstances are directly related to the fact that we are 9 from the bubble, and chip stack posiiton. To say people like me are giving pots too easily is incorrect as I'm only talking about laying down any hand but a set in this exact siutation. The only reason this hand is interesting is because the BB open pushes. If he checks, I push he calls and there's nothing I could've done differently. What's crucial for how this hand went down is the fact that he called my raise in about 5 seconds. If he had JJ, it takes I would argue at least 15 seconds to think should i just call/raise all in here. KK or AA I disregard because in my mind he's raising both of those. If bb has a stack of 30 k or so, it's an easy call. But with his stack there's no reason to get involved with anything less than a set.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

Given that you got to the flop I think you have to fold. Even when you're ahead he's drawing too live to risk your tournament life here (lol it actually applies). But you really should just be open jamming preflop. You have a monster but you still don't want action.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

I think you have to call and expect to be ahead. I'd be really surprised to see a set pushing there.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You made the correct play in my opinion so there's no point in regretting your decision.

Playing super tight is generally not the best way to get far in tournaments... see the anthology. If you aren't comfortable post flop then it is the best option though.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's a sat, not just a tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what? The beginning plays the same as a regular MTT and he said about the beginning: "What got me this far in the tourney was playing very tight solid poker. There's no reason to make plays you would in a regular mtt and raise in late posiiton with say a KJ or JQ to try to take the blinds since they go up so slow. "

I would disagree in that it's often correct to be stealing the blinds a lot in qualifiers

[/ QUOTE ]

my problem with it is we're late in the tourney and he's in very good shape to get a seat w/o this hand, 23/44 with 35 seats? just fold pf already.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You made the correct play in my opinion so there's no point in regretting your decision.

Playing super tight is generally not the best way to get far in tournaments... see the anthology. If you aren't comfortable post flop then it is the best option though.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's a sat, not just a tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what? The beginning plays the same as a regular MTT and he said about the beginning: "What got me this far in the tourney was playing very tight solid poker. There's no reason to make plays you would in a regular mtt and raise in late posiiton with say a KJ or JQ to try to take the blinds since they go up so slow. "

I would disagree in that it's often correct to be stealing the blinds a lot in qualifiers

[/ QUOTE ]

my problem with it is we're late in the tourney and he's in very good shape to get a seat w/o this hand, 23/44 with 35 seats? just fold pf already.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very close to folding into the money but I'm not comfortable at this point so I'm still raising here... maybe open pushing.

I was replying to his comments about how he played earlier in the tourney to get to this point. At this point is obviously makes sense for the medium size stacks to be playing real tight.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

fold preflop or jam. if you standard raise espec this late in a sat people are going to put you on a big pair and therefore jam with a very tight range. the problem is that once it comes around to you espec against a shortie you are gonna be talking yourself into a call a lot of the time.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

call.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

i probably fold the flop if i got there like this

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

I think that as played the call was fine because he knows how hesitant you will be to call here without AA or a flopped set - and will push with a lot of hands you beat as a result.

It has been said above - I like an open Jam. I don't really have a fold button with QQ pre - flop unless I have definately reached the "can win ticket without playing another hand bracket". You are not there at the start of this hand. Unlucky all the same.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

Definitely unlucky and I agree with the PF jam. The only things you are afraid of are AA and KK and those 2 hands likely get all your chips postflop anyway with this board. 22nd in chips with 44 left for 35 seats, the open push likely picks up the pot and buys you a round worth of chips. Any free round at this point greatly increases your chances of that seat.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

I really can't believe what I'm reading here. Very few posts seem to be addressing this situation from a satallite perspective.

There are some key questions that need to be addressed. Before the flop, what percentage of the time can the hero fold into a seat? After the flop, what percentage of the time can the hero fold into a seat? Both questions are very dependent on the stack sizes of the people currently below the bubble and a little bit above. Does the hero have a significant chip gap advantage over the group near and below the bubble? Are the blinds going up soon? Are people dropping like flies or are people tightening up and no one has gone out in a while? Are big stacks acting reckless?

Without this information, it is tough to make a completely accurate judgement here. OMG I've got an over pair to the board so I should call is not sufficient analysis.

That being said, and with insufficient information . . .

Before the flop the hero is 13 spaces above the bubble with 9 people below the bubble. He has 18BBs. I put him at a VERY high percentage of being able to fold into a seat here. Possibly 80-90%. He has no business playing QQ in EP, particularly when both blinds have him significantly outstacked. AA may not be good enough.

I do agree with other here that if hero insists on playing QQ here that the only play is to push.

I would also fold QQ after the flop. I'd like to know more about how throwing away 4800 affected his chip position in the tournament and his chances of folding into a seat.

But I do know that there is someone who DEFINATELY has a 100% chance to fold into a seat is willing to put 1/2 his stack at risk on this flop. I really doubt he is doing that unless he is crushing QQ.

He could be an idiot. He also could be a smart player who knows that the hero should be folding just about anything here and is making some sort of play (although he's not that smart if he's putting his 100% seat position at risk).

But what are the total of those chances? Is is greater than hero's ability to fold here and fold into a seat? Also taking into account that hero could call with QQ and still lose the hand. If the villian is bluffing AK, hero will still lose 25% of the time.

I think hero chances of folding into the money are much greater than betting that the villian is pushing trash. Instafold to the all-in after the flop.

But even those two fold recommendations could be wrong depending on the particular situation in this tournament. For instance, if hero's stack did not give him a signiciation advantage over the bubble stack. Or if people are not getting knocked out fast.

In the end we really don't have enough information to make a completely accurate judgment of this situation.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

Your goal is to win a seat in the WSOP. You're in the pot with someone who is 8th in chips. You can really hurt him, yet he pushes all in. Would he do that with A-10 if he put you on AK? Else he must have a set. If he was a short stack, then I'd call. But in this case, I'm going to pick another battle.

Re: 650 wsop sat qq with 44 left
 

Is there any standard way to quantify your chance to win a seat? In an earlier thread, I had asked about ICM and the HOH example, but no one seemed to think that they did a good job with the specifics of this kind of question.

Is it just a judgment call, or is there some objective way to predict your chance to win a seat based on some of the parameters that Solitare listed?

One that I've been paying attention to is the Average stack when the bubble bursts. If I am significantly above that (and we're near the bubble), I expect that I can fold into a seat. If I'm below this value, even if I'm otherwise healthy, I'm still wanting to accumulate chips, and I know I need to play poker.