I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

BB stinks. 40/6/something
Button is something like 28/0/.9, but only over 30 hands. Obviously hasn't gotten out of line yet

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls.

River: (10.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 13.70 BB.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

nh sir.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

You're putting button precisely on QJ? I never fold in this spot.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

+90% confident you're beat?
How?

Please, someone share.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

yeah i wouldnt fold this.

i dont expect it to be very far from a 0 EV call, but there is only one hand he can have that beats you (QJ). QQ is a slight possibility.

either way i don't feel like it's a big error at all to fold here but i think calling is best.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

I agree, you will see QJ often here but I believe I have seen hands like AQ here too (some people never fold AK/AQ on the flop). I'm not about to start bet/folding AA on relatively safe rivers any time soon.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

[ QUOTE ]

+90% confident you're beat?
How?


[/ QUOTE ]

As Walter would say, "that's right dude. 100% certain."

Just look at the action.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

I'm putting him on something that beats one pair.. that's fo' damn sho'.

I was in the zone, dude. It eluded me, however, 20 minutes later.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

it might well be a good fold, but the reasons elude me, and i would feel dirty folding here. i might well have a leak with my big pairs and i would drop this in no limit, but here i would call and hand over the chips like a good little sucker.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm putting him on something that beats one pair.. that's fo' damn sho'.


[/ QUOTE ]

Word. When fish raise like this, they beat 1 pair roughly 99% of the time. The other 1% it's a misclick. An especially poor player could even have the nuts here.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Word. When fish raise like this, they beat 1 pair roughly 99% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
[censored], this is retarded and its your fault, colin. We have 30 hands on a guy during which he's 30/0. That is worthless for telling us anything other than he's not a nutso maniac. It certainly isn't enough to tell us that he's a "fish."

Anyways, I really liked something StellarWind said in a fold thread yesterday. He said he'd call and "expect to lose most of the time, but be suprised to win often enough that its profitable." This fold says he (nearly) never raises a bare Q here, and I just don't buy that.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

I call.

Krishan

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[censored], this is retarded and its your fault, colin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Relax man. Even if this isn't great, it's not retarded.

I truly don't think this was a bad fold. I don't make folds like this a lot, believe me. This was more of a case of forgetting about the HUD stats for a second, realizing I haven't seen him put in a raise of any sort pre- or post- flop yet. Like I said before, look at the action. If he ran a bluff, I tip my hat too him, because I don't think we see a bluff 1 in 14 times here.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[censored], this is retarded and its your fault, colin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Relax man. Even if this isn't great, it's not retarded.

I truly don't think this was a bad fold. I don't make folds like this a lot, believe me. This was more of a case of forgetting about the HUD stats for a second, realizing I haven't seen him put in a raise of any sort pre- or post- flop yet. Like I said before, look at the action. If he ran a bluff, I tip my hat too him, because I don't think we see a bluff 1 in 14 times here.

[/ QUOTE ]


There`s people who play KK like this.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he ran a bluff, I tip my hat too him, because I don't think we see a bluff 1 in 14 times here.

[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't run a bluff. He was value raising against your AJ.

Krishan

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Relax man. Even if this isn't great, it's not retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]
I was referring to including any stats at all for BB. Why not say, "No real reads, but he seems decently tight preflop and hasn't gotten out of line postflop?" Sorry for this tangent, but including meaningless stats just leads people to make idiotic statements like, "What a fish raise omg!" when all we've got is three orbits of play on someone. It irks me that if I post a winrate over 30k hands every other post will deride me for smaple size issues, but nobody ever seems to think about it in their hand-to-hand play (or posts).

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

Word

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
I call.

wheelz

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

You are a better man than me. I kiss the chips goodbye, but i call.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

I am calling this without a great read (30 hands is nothing to base close decisions on) - he could have been bumping you on the flop with an underplayed AQ preflop, he could have KK, OR we could have hot 2 pair - With all these potential holdings I am calling it down - if he was 30/10/0.5 over 200 hands, then I would likley be looking for the fold button - af

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

My only concern here is the sample size on villain... 30 hands isn't enough for me to be that confident about anything...

But there is a level on which I find that river fold tremendously sexy...

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

Alright. I can respect that. I misunderstood your initial post. I agree. I made this play based more on how I percieved him in the half hour of play than on the stats, thus the stats were useless. My b.

I made this post to see how many "don't fold for one bet in big pots" replies there would be. I think a lot of us (myself included) tend to make river decisions in a vacuum. "13:1 I call". Putting all the pieces together (the strength I've shown, my feelings of the opponents, street by street action) I really didn't like those odds. If the hand had gone "bet flop, bet turn, bet river" and then I got raised, I would've called.

You hear people say "folding in a pot this big is disasterous", and it really isn't, given the information. Maybe it's 0EV or slightly -EV, but it's not a huge error.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
There`s people who play KK like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly what I was going to say. You'll get shown something worse here often enough.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

I call and make a note on him. Folding might be better EV-wise but I think knowing exactly what he's doing that with will pay off in the session.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Putting all the pieces together (the strength I've shown, my feelings of the opponents, street by street action) I really didn't like those odds. If the hand had gone "bet flop, bet turn, bet river" and then I got raised, I would've called.

[/ QUOTE ]
Like I said earlier, this fold says he (nearly) never raises a bare Q here, and I just don't buy that.

I agree with you that its close, though.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

I think this is a fine fold. This board is way to scary for him to raise naked Q on and risk getting 3 bet by a better hand. Your AA is likely beat and I think you made the right call by folding.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

I call.

I could see a fairly unknown villain playing QT this way. Assuming that villain will always raise QJ here, you need to heavily discount his willingness to raise just top pair here to justify a fold given the potodds you are getting.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

I don't know what the experts here will say, but you have to be right only one time in 12 for the call to be correct. Were you that sure you had lost?

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

*sigh.. have you even read the thread?

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

I'll bet he has KT.

I fold this and then call the next time. Even total passive fish tend to start taking shots at me when I pull stuff like this.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

Some people are considering a one pair hand being played this way. I agree that a player might raise with a pair of queens "vs our AJ", but only a few. My estimate is that only 5% of players (given we bet all the way, OP's observations of opponent in the past half hour, PT/PA stats) would do this with just a pair of queens.

However, the other 95% of players are incapable of doing this.

Versus 95% of players, we have no equity:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

47 games 0.015 secs 3,133 games/sec

Board: Jc 5h 3d 9s Qc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 00.0000 % 00.00% 00.00% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 100.0000 % 100.00% 00.00% { 99, 55, 33, KTs, QJs, Q9s, Q5s, Q3s, KTo, QJo, Q9o }

---

Versus 5% of players we have a lot of equity.
I added AQ, KQ, &amp; QT. I hated adding QT, but I did it anyways.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

77 games 0.005 secs 15,400 games/sec

Board: Jc 5h 3d 9s Qc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.9610 % 38.96% 00.00% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 61.0390 % 61.04% 00.00% { 99, 55, 33, AQs, KQs, KTs, Q9s+, Q5s, Q3s, AQo, KQo, KTo, Q9o+ }


---

0.95(0) + 0.05(38.9) = 1.95% equity

In this calculation it's a losing call (kidcolin was getting 13.7 to 1, so he needed 6.8%).

There are two things in my example while are debatable. One is the hand ranges I've assigned. The more important issue is the % of opponents that would play a hand that beats us the same way as a hand that we beat (AQ,KQ,QT).

If you agree with my hand ranges, then we need &gt;20% of opponents to play it this way. I find that to be a gross overestimate.

I don't pay as much attention at the tables as OP claims to, so I would never make this fold. Also, I'm very willing to make a losing call if it means a showdown and I'm not losing that much overall. OP has the other take on this, where he will make the fold if he will save a fraction of a bet (EV-wise) and not have the curiosity kill him.

Re: I fold in big pot for 1 last bet
 

I'm not folding without lots and lots of hands on him. There's way more than enough players that instinctively raise overcards (AQ, KQ?) that make this a routine call.

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a fine fold. This board is way to scary for him to raise naked Q on and risk getting 3 bet by a better hand. Your AA is likely beat and I think you made the right call by folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's 3 cards separated by 1 gap each. That's not a scary board by any definition. Even if it was scary, 80% of villains are too stupid to realize it, and maybe 1% would view this one as scary. I think most are value raising the top pair they have.