\"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

That is a quote from a friend of mine, a pro player who plays 400NL on several sites.

I had said in a differant on-line poker forum (yes, there are OTHER on-line poker forums) that, with normal size stacks, 50% of a FR NL players profit will come from AA & KK. The other 50% will come from set farming.

My friend the pro said, "No, most of your profit comes from AA & KK. Set farming makes up, at most, 40%."

I was wondering what you guys had to say on this. Or rather, what your stats had to say. Does AA & KK really make up such a large fraction of non-short stack's total profit?

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

After > 1k posts you should have PT, and then you will realize he's right.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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After > 1k posts you should have PT along with PAHUD , and then you will realize he's right.

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FYP [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

According to my PT stats, which are mostly at 50 nl and 100nl, I am up about $2,100 with AA and KK, overall I am up $1,400 over my last 40,000 hands.

Do other people's PT stats have similar stats?

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

those figures are similar to mine. I would be a losing player without AA, and i think that very few winners would be winners without AA and KK (and definatly without QQ too).

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

Had a -700 swing at 200NL...was down 300 with AA in that period..if you change that to +300, that is a 600 dollar swing..

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

Same here. Had i folded AA every time preflop, i'd be a losing player over some 6000 hands in April.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

This is my NL database of 15k hands.

Total won playing 10NL or lower is $87.
AA/KK = $67.00

Ship more AA/KK pls! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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After > 1k posts you should have PT, and then you will realize he's right.

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If you follow my posts at all, you'd know that my PT sample size is only slightly larger than my post count.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

why is after 20k hands at 10NL, my KK win rate is -1.02 BB/Hand?!?!?

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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why is after 20k hands at 10NL, my KK win rate is -1.02 BB/Hand?!?!?

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variance


I'm down with AKs, but up pretty good with AKo over the last 100k hands. It's very rare that the two hands are played much different.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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why is after 20k hands at 10NL, my KK win rate is -1.02 BB/Hand?!?!?

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variance

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that is what it is... I have, over 20k hands all my AT+ hands are possitive except the AKs, AJs, and ATs go figure.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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why is after 20k hands at 10NL, my KK win rate is -1.02 BB/Hand?!?!?

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variance

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I am quite new to the game. But the more I play, the more I realize how scary the variance is. I just played 30min and was immediately down 3BI. It's prob nothing for you guys, but enough for me to smash my mouse on the table.

This game is sick!

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

Here are my pairs over 115k hands of full ring, I'm up $8,800 total so as you can see your friend is correct.

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/205/4...5edf36d1_o.png



Here are my hands that lose greatest $/hand (when not in a blind)


http://farm1.static.flickr.com/216/4...b49c8895_o.jpg

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

my set mining skillz must be terrible, I'm actually pretty concerned about my small-mid pair performance, suited connectors seem to break even at best also.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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my set mining skillz must be terrible, I'm actually pretty concerned about my small-mid pair performance, suited connectors seem to break even at best also.

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You should definitely be turning a profit with pairs, but your sample size is too low. I think SC's are inherently -EV though.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

Isn't it ok to break even on small pairs/sc's because they make you tougher to read, and give you more value on your big pairs?

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

For example raising small pairs in EP is possibly -EV, but it makes you more money when you raise EP with big hands, so thus its +EV even tho you may be break even or losing on it.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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Isn't it ok to break even on small pairs/sc's because they make you tougher to read, and give you more value on your big pairs?

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SCs yes, PPs not so much

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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Isn't it ok to break even on small pairs/sc's because they make you tougher to read, and give you more value on your big pairs?

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I would have to say that would pre-suppose thinking, aware opponents.

Under 100NL, those are actually fairly rare (Thank you, Water Walking Jesus!).

Also, whenever I do find a player like that at one of my tables, I move. Frankly, I don't want to play against people who are even just as good as I am. And screw playing opponents who are better. That's for tournament players, not me.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

he's right.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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he's right.

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Edit: The 'secret' is that you still have to play other hands to get your AA/KK paid off...that's why poker is hard DUCY?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

more interesting stat is how much profit AA/KK make up out of VPIPed hands. for me AA/KK make up roughly 30%.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

I am up with every pair...to drunk to dig through pokertracker and calculate total wins and [censored] though.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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more interesting stat is how much profit AA/KK make up out of VPIPed hands. for me AA/KK make up roughly 30%.

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yeah this is more interesting by far, the amount you just fold in the blinds is crazy

haven't looked at mine yet

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

Who the hell is folding AA & KK in the blinds?

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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more interesting stat is how much profit AA/KK make up out of VPIPed hands. for me AA/KK make up roughly 30%.

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40% for me.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

My "Bobbo Rate" is 39.45%

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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Who the hell is folding AA & KK in the blinds?

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junk hands ldo

not AA, KK but all the times you fold in the blinds adds up, the other big killer is rake

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

I'm up $5,168 with all pairs over last 39k hands (NL100+NL200) while I'm only up $3,620 total.

Of those, I'm up $1,346 with AA, $1,724 with KK and $777 with QQ.

I'm up only $219 with 88 to 22 (I think mostly because my sets have run into flushes and straights and higher sets so much).

I'm down $80 with SCs even including AKs (+$16) and KQs.

I'm up $365 with AK. I'm up $1773 with AJ/AQ.

My worst hand is 55 and I'm down 1.13 bb/hand with it.

My profit on VP$IP hands is $8,162. Of those KK+ is $3,069 for a 37% Bobbo ratio.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

useless thread

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

I find playing suited connectors to be a leak- I mostly play suited (and unsuited connectors) as blind stealing hands in 0.5-1$, and 1-2$ NL. The amount people fold to blind steals or fold to the flop cbet is unreal. Certainly would never happen at those levels live.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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I find playing suited connectors to be a leak-

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I mostly play suited (and unsuited connectors) as blind stealing hands in 0.5-1$, and 1-2$ NL. The amount people fold to blind steals or fold to the flop cbet is unreal.

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One of these things is not like the other

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

But you can make twice the flushes!!!

More and more, I'm not sure that your cards really matter all that much in blind steals, I think you can just choose hands based on the frequency you want to steal (ie, if you want to steal 40% of the time, use any ace, any king, any kind of connector- wheras I'll fold Kings and such). I don't think I'm leaking now with the suited connectors, I was before when I tried to open limp with them, or call raises in position and stuff like that.

PS: Are you in medical school?

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

saying stuff like sc's are inherently -ev just isn't right. It's knwoing when to hold em and when to fold em.


Just play every hand so each decision is +EV (or least -EV) (if you know what you're doing you can accept the odd decision as -ev as long as you think it's +ev for the session/long game).

For example when you limp or call a raise with a pp, be reasonably sure you can extract at least about 8 times your bet on average when you hit.

Just think 'if i were in this spot a million times what's the best way to make the most money/lose the least money'.

Edit: and Osprey is on the right path, your cards don't matter with steals in the right table/spot. What is important though is recognising a changed table dynamic when the others finally get tired of your stealing and start playing back. Buying thw pot can get dangerously addictive on a passive table.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

Explain to me, in a non high level thinking, A-B-C low level relatively shortstacked game that we're playing, how suited connectors are + EV. You're about 29:1, I believe, to flop 2 pair, which is beating overpairs and such- even less to flop trips. There was a discussion about this in one of the other forums before Full Ring came about, and I worked out, based on probabilities someone supplied, the math for the times you flop a massive draw- I thiink it was 11:1 or 12:1 to flop a big draw, 12 outs and up, and to make calling a preflop raise profitable it still came out to be that you needed your opponent to call 1 bet, and THEN fold to your all in. If you pushed in with your massive draw, and your opponent folds, you don't make enough to cover the times you don't hit your hand and have to fold, and if he calls, you're essentially coin flipping for your stack and you're still not going to cover the times you miss your hand. Unless you think you can fold someone with any 2 cards, I'm not sure that playing suited connectors aggressively and for raises makes great sense. Note, I am not talking about limping into a 5 handed pot to try to flop the mortal nuts- that seems reasonable- but calling raises in position, to play heads up against a pre-flop raiser? I don't think it's a long term winner.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

err, i mostly don't play SC into raises preflop (unless it's a good family pot). cos that would be -ev. I'd certainly never call.

If it were HU, I sometimes reraise a good lag tho. If it were raised by a good lag and called by a tightish passive, I'd be even more likely to reraise (a little squeeze play is a wonderful thing). Mostly I'd fold.

It depends. None of this makes SC inherently -ev.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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Explain to me, in a non high level thinking, A-B-C low level relatively shortstacked game that we're playing, how suited connectors are + EV.

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You've answered your own question. Playing SCs is highly stack-dependant.

First, you have to have a stack. I like at least 75 bb if I'm going to be playing speculative hands.

Then, if it's folded around to you in LP you can raise with them provided the blinds have some stack for you to win if you get called and you make a hand. Again, I like at least 75 BB.

If it's raised in EP then you can call in LP with them provided the initial raiser has a decent stack.

I will limp with them from MP if the table is both nicely stacked and fairly passive. I'd seriously consider folding to a raise from LP.

And you don't play them from EP. Playing draws from OOP is pure spew.

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

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my set mining skillz must be terrible, I'm actually pretty concerned about my small-mid pair performance, suited connectors seem to break even at best also.

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I think if you broke your SC's and small PP's down by position, you'd see a major difference in win/lost $$$

Re: \"Most of your profit will come from AA & KK\"
 

Yeah, it is much easier to extract from position than OOP.