Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

Ok, it's getting to the business end of a 116 entrant MTT, 8 seat tables, with 17 players left, 10 of which will cash.

You're UTG+2, stacks are as follows, with $500/$1000 blinds, no ante.

SB sitting in seat 1 with $6839.77
BB sitting in seat 2 with $17180.12
UTG sitting in seat 3 with $3545.98
UTG+1 sitting in seat 4 with $3427.28
HERO sitting in seat 5 with $5625.00
MP sitting in seat 6 with $16094.82
CO sitting in seat 7 with $3287.14
Button sitting in seat 8 with $6950.00 [Dealer]

UTG folds, UTG+1 pushes ($3427.28)...

You have A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]...

Hero?


UTG+1 has been playing notably tight, going down to almost 1BB only at one point. He has not shown many hands down, but when in the BB a few hands ago and it was folded to the Button who put him all in, he folded and showed 55...

Thoughts please.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

It would be difficult but i would fold there is too much action behind you.

However to win a tournament you have to gamble and win races and given your chip stack vs the blind schedule now might be a good time to move. If you don't fold go all in and to try to keep the field thin - if he has a small pair you are in a race heads up.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It would be difficult but i would fold there is too much action behind you.

However to win a tournament you have to gamble and win races and given your chip stack vs the blind schedule now might be a good time to move. If you don't fold go all in and to try to keep the field thin - if he has a small pair you are in a race heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, I think it's a tougher spot than it appears on the surface, which is why I posted it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Of course no-one is smooth calling here, it's clearly push/fold... but which is it? Any logic/reasoning welcome, really interested in what people think about this.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It would be difficult but i would fold there is too much action behind you.

However to win a tournament you have to gamble and win races and given your chip stack vs the blind schedule now might be a good time to move. If you don't fold go all in and to try to keep the field thin - if he has a small pair you are in a race heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, I think it's a tougher spot than it appears on the surface, which is why I posted it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Of course no-one is smooth calling here, it's clearly push/fold... but which is it? Any logic/reasoning welcome, really interested in what people think about this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your M is 4 and you've got the 2nd best Ace suited against a rock. I'm shoveling here hoping to be heads up. You have to do this when you have some fold equity and a double push will cause the bigger stack to lay down AK and anything under 10s. Here's your chance to pull a nice stack and thin the field or drop to an M of 1. Either way you don't have much time so in they go (if it's me)

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

Fold.

If he's noticeably tight and pushing in that particular position, your chip ev is barely positive at best, if everyone else folds. Since there are people left to act, it pushes this over the edge.

Given these stacks I'd be looking for chances to gain chips and run the table over (those blinds are absurd!), but this isn't a good one.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

Interesting mix of opinions so far. I will say that I have actually spoken to Villian since the hand and so know more or less what his actual range is for pushing here, but I'll keep that to myself for now.

Any other thoughts for/against the push?

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he's noticeably tight and pushing in that particular position,

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't the fact that he's under immediate pressure from the blinds open up his range somewhat? I would be more inclined to fold if I was on the button and he was the CO, where I know he is happy to give up a whole orbit of possible hands to play what he has now... As it stands, he's going to lose almost half his stack to the blinds in the next 2 hands... Does this factor?

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

You have ~5BB, play to win I am pushing this against even the tightest of rocks.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

Wait he's shoving 3.5BBS and you only have 5.6BBs? Am I reading that correctly?

The structure is outrageous, and he's a rock, but we're super short and we're not on the bubble yet. If both of you were deeper the question is a bit different, but you're not. I contest the idea that this is a "bad spot" to pick up chips, his tightness is almost inconsequential with current chip stacks and it is eight handed.

Shove and hope for the best.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.300% 59.66% 00.64% 245157384 2645394.00 { 66+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.700% 39.06% 00.64% 160504788 2645394.00 { AQs }

You are ev neutral at best.

Folding and open shoving the next hand has a greater expected value than calling here.

This is a rediculous spot but it is a fold with your read.

Obviously this is an instainstainstacall against any other opponent

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

Easy call readless. With your read, well.. close. But yeah pushing any two the next hand might be better.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

For as much as I don't like calling off my money here with AQ, unfortunately, I think you have to. You only have 5 Big Blinds. He has even less chips which opens up his range. Though he is in an early position, the blinds are going to eat him alive the next hand so he had to push with a wider range than he normally would. The only problem really is there is action behind you but at this point you have to try and accumulate some chips so that you can play an effective bubble. If you lose here, you at least don't bubble but if you do win, you'll have a pretty reasonable chip stack and you should be able to cash/make final table and hopefully take the whole thing down. Also, I'm not sure if you mentioned this point or not but what was the dollar amount on the buy in? If it was a low buy in, then yeah, you probably do have to call. Though I hate to stereotype just because it is a lower buy in, it is something to consider. If it is a $5 tournament, then AQ is going to be the best hand in this spot more often than it would in say a $100+ buy in tournament. Though this may not necessarily be true in all cases, I feel that it is something to think about.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

I fold this and wait for next hand to push.
it's always better to shove with bad hand than to call all your chips with good hand

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm not sure if you mentioned this point or not but what was the dollar amount on the buy in? If it was a low buy in, then yeah, you probably do have to call. Though I hate to stereotype just because it is a lower buy in, it is something to consider. If it is a $5 tournament, then AQ is going to be the best hand in this spot more often than it would in say a $100+ buy in tournament. Though this may not necessarily be true in all cases, I feel that it is something to think about.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I deliberately did not mention this as I felt it would unfairly skew people's opinions, as this was only a $10+$1 MTT. However, it's a special/private MTT so the standard is many many times higher than your regular $10 donkament...

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.300% 59.66% 00.64% 245157384 2645394.00 { 66+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.700% 39.06% 00.64% 160504788 2645394.00 { AQs }

You are ev neutral at best.

Folding and open shoving the next hand has a greater expected value than calling here.

This is a rediculous spot but it is a fold with your read.

Obviously this is an instainstainstacall against any other opponent

[/ QUOTE ]

I initially put villlian on about that range, 77+ and AK, but I do not believe this is my best case scenario, but my worst, and if this makes it about 0 ev, then I believe the chances of villians range being slightly wider mean the call is the way to go...

After speaking to villian after the tournament was over (he is a friend and went on to come 3rd), he told me that his range there was any pair, plus Aces down to AT, which by my workings means I was about a coinflip against his range. With this knowledge, I assume a call is standard? Of course, I didn't know this at the time, but even with his tight play, I suspected his range was wider than 77+ and AK...

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

HOH. "Players fall in love with the 'first in vigourish' play. However you get a hand that is playable after a raise when shortstacked"

This is one of those hands.....

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

I always push here. The boogeyman blinds are coming for him, he can easily have worse imo.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
After speaking to villian after the tournament was over (he is a friend and went on to come 3rd), he told me...

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you know this guy, you should have had enough info for a meta-read. That is, is he smart enough to know he's established a tight image, and cunning enough to use it to steal/semi-bluff?

That would be the tiebreaker for me.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

wtf push.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

Next two pots are more than likely going to be called by the blinds that will have 1/3 their chips in. You have a low M and need to double more than once before the end. Shove...regardless of your opponent. Chances are you will not see this good a hand before you're the BB again. Shove shove shove.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

His M is almost 2 and he's deep in the red zone. If he is a decent player his pushing range is huge and you should be a solid favorit. You're also in the red zone and you have to find a very very good spot if you fold AQs here.
In HoH III is a similar example.
So push and don't think twice about it.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have ~5BB, play to win I am pushing this against even the tightest of rocks.

[/ QUOTE ] - Agreed!

The EV of more chips has to be included in the $EV also. Also, why can't he hav AQ or someother hand like AJ/AT.

He has 3.5BB and will have to post 1.5BB in next 2 hands.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

I am pushing this all day

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

call and never look back

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm not sure if you mentioned this point or not but what was the dollar amount on the buy in? If it was a low buy in, then yeah, you probably do have to call. Though I hate to stereotype just because it is a lower buy in, it is something to consider. If it is a $5 tournament, then AQ is going to be the best hand in this spot more often than it would in say a $100+ buy in tournament. Though this may not necessarily be true in all cases, I feel that it is something to think about.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I deliberately did not mention this as I felt it would unfairly skew people's opinions, as this was only a $10+$1 MTT. However, it's a special/private MTT so the standard is many many times higher than your regular $10 donkament...

[/ QUOTE ]Doesn't this (and/or the higher buy-in) push us more towards shoving over the top? The better the player initial raiser is, the wider his range is going to be in this spot, IMO.

Oh, and unless the other table has all the chips, this structure sucks.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.300% 59.66% 00.64% 245157384 2645394.00 { 66+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.700% 39.06% 00.64% 160504788 2645394.00 { AQs }



[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a legitimate range for villain? He is pushing sixes but only AK?

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

I find it really hard to believe that villain's pushing range is AK/66+ with 3.5 bb and he's about to be in the blinds again in a 10 dollar tourney. I'd instant push.