10/25 NL vs. total fish
 

10/25 live NL, but playing more like 25/50 w/ regular large PF raises. Villain is a total fish and very predictable. My image is very LAG, and villain is willing to call me down light with any hand top pair or better. I hope this isn't considered TOO standard because I don't think it is, and brings up an interesting concept of reducing variance against fish.

Effective stack is $5k (200BB).

Villain raises in CO to $150, I call on button with TJ. It's heads-up.

Flop J T 3 rainbow

Villain bets $200, I raise to $600, he re-raises minimum to $1000. Now, don't worry about how I read his hand, just assume I KNOW he has QQ, KK, or AA (maybe the off chance of AJ, but I doubt it) with the line he takes here (like I said, 100% predictable).

My play in previous big pots with him has always been to wait for the best spots to put lots of money in because he is just THAT bad, I like to wait until he's in the worse possible situation. Is that backwards thinking or me just being over-cautious?

Anyway, I just call the min re-raise to see a turn (in case it's a counterfeiting 3 or some scare card). Should I have just jammed it all-in here (I guarantee he calls)?

But, I just call and turn is a 9. I don't like it for obvious increased straight outs now. He bets a measely $500 into a $2,100 pot. He has like $3.5k left. What now? I really just want to call, not because I think I'm losing (I KNOW for a fact I'm winning), but because I know he potentially has quite a few outs. Is this the right move, a call? Or should I just shove now so I don't risk a scare card coming on river and killing my action. Let it be known though that I don't think there are many scare cards that could make him fold river, but there might be some that make him only check/call a value-bet. I figure he has more outs than potential scare cards though, especially if he holds QQ.

Does this make sense? I'm trying to find the right balance of being aggressive and pushing when ahead, and seeing cards to try to minimize variance against the fish...any comments on this concept and/or hand appreciated. I'll post the hand results in a bit.

Re: 10/25 NL vs. total fish
 

shove flop

Re: 10/25 NL vs. total fish
 

i think calling the flop reraise is fine, hoping he'll commit himself on the turn. but definitely shove the turn.

Re: 10/25 NL vs. total fish
 

i like to shove the flop as well but if not on the flop i wouldn't wait anymore on the turn

Re: 10/25 NL vs. total fish
 

what twp said. this isnt online, even some bad players will fold AA/KK to a flop shove id imagine. so yeah, id call most of the time on the flop once he raises, but not for reasons OP stated.

Re: 10/25 NL vs. total fish
 

If u are sure of your read I think u should just flat call the turn aswell. With pocketpair over qq he will have atleast 8 outs++. So if you have enough ice to just call the turn bet I think thats the best play.

Re: 10/25 NL vs. total fish
 

[ QUOTE ]
what twp said. this isnt online, even some bad players will fold AA/KK to a flop shove id imagine. so yeah, id call most of the time on the flop once he raises, but not for reasons OP stated.

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interesting you say this... i think people are much more likely to fold AA online than they are live.

generally speaking of course.

Re: 10/25 NL vs. total fish
 

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what twp said. this isnt online, even some bad players will fold AA/KK to a flop shove id imagine. so yeah, id call most of the time on the flop once he raises, but not for reasons OP stated.

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interesting you say this... i think people are much more likely to fold AA online than they are live.

generally speaking of course.

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thats what FSU meant i think. even tho live players suck, even the worst can fold AA or KK here sometimes to a flop push

Re: 10/25 NL vs. total fish
 

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If u are sure of your read I think u should just flat call the turn aswell. With pocketpair over qq he will have atleast 8 outs++. So if you have enough ice to just call the turn bet I think thats the best play.

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If villain holds QQ he has 13 outs going to the river.

Re: 10/25 NL vs. total fish
 

If the guy is so bad that he will stack off wtih AA, KK QQ even if big scare cards hit then the turn call is OK i guess. but even the worst player might let AA go if the river comes a Q,J, or 8 and then you lose a lot of value you could have had on the flop or turn. I think that for most "bad players" you need to raise turn as I think you lose too much value if a bad card comes off. Also if you are playing within your BR the big question should be how to maximize value not controll variance.

Re: 10/25 NL vs. total fish
 

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what twp said. this isnt online, even some bad players will fold AA/KK to a flop shove id imagine. so yeah, id call most of the time on the flop once he raises, but not for reasons OP stated.

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i still dont think this is the correct play.. you have to know he's going to get away from AA/KK here every time to play this hand like this.. and you're not THAT deep.


get the money in and let him make the mistake.

Re: 10/25 NL vs. total fish
 

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If u are sure of your read I think u should just flat call the turn aswell. With pocketpair over qq he will have atleast 8 outs++. So if you have enough ice to just call the turn bet I think thats the best play.

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If villain holds QQ he has 13 outs going to the river.

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If villain has QQ then he has 16 outs (4xK, 4x8, 2xQ, 3x9, and 3x3).

And by the way, I did raise all-in on turn, he absolutely instacalled, and nailed a K on river to go runner-straight with QQ.

I leave the hand feeling like I really could have, and should have, saved over $3,000.

Re: 10/25 NL vs. total fish
 

Based on your assumption that you "know" villain will call a flop push and your LAG image, I don't see any benefit of waiting for the turn to push it all in.

Potential scare cards on the turn could only increase the chance that villain will release an inferior hand. Scare cards potentially include 8,9,10,J,Q,K,A.

You are way ahead on the flop here. A different case could be made for extremely deep stacks against an aggressive opponent where you put him on a monster draw (OESD + FD), but this is not the case here.

I don't think you should worry about "variance" against a fish. It'll only make you second guess yourself and possibly cost you some big pots in the future.

Also, it's extremely difficult to be an effective LAG player and be worried about variance.

Possibly move down until you aren't afraid of such variance.

(i had a more extensive explanation but the forum switchover deleted the post along with some of the others)

Re: 10/25 NL vs. total fish
 

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Also, it's extremely difficult to be an effective LAG player and be worried about variance.

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I appreciate the advice. I sincerely would have liked to read your "extensive explanation". When I read your statement it sounded 100% correct, but now that I think a little bit more I'm not so sure. I still feel there are certain situations, the times you've spotted will have the most variance, where you can SAVE yourself MORE money than you risk losing in potential winnings. This would make your overall profit better in the long run. Is that not true? The statement I quoted above, is that really true? I'd really like to hear from some other LAG successful players. I don't feel as though developing a LAG image necessarily involves abandoning all caution.

And in reference to stepping down games...I'm not asking these questions because I am intimidated in the game, I am up $23k since the game started in December. What I want to do is adjust my game accordingly to make my profits maximized...