Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

80 players left in Sunday Million on PS. I am 3rd overall in chips and the BB is 4th overall. He has been at this table for about 5 or 6 hands and this is the first Button/SB/BB confrontation that we've had. He didn't instashove but he shoved before he had to hit his time button so it was about 15-20 seconds if that matters. Avg stack in the tournament is 870k and chip leader has like 2.2 mil

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t30000/t60000
(Ante: t3000)
9 players
Converter
Hero (Button): 1706072 in chips
SB: 350662 in chips
BB: 1581612 in chips

Hero is dealt:[Kc As]
Pre-flop: (9 players)
6 folds, Button raises to t165000, SB raises all-in t347662, BB raises all-in t1578612.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

What have you got or are you asking what you need to call? For me QQ+, maybe AKs.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

sorry.. didn't realize converter left out my hand.. edited post accordingly

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

Easy call.

If BB is competent he could be isolating with AJ+...88-99+ probably. gamble baby.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

Man, that's so tough. BB's range has to be AQs+, JJ+. Maybe TT. OK, if this were a $109, then I'm instacalling. I think in the Million with your stack, I'd probably fold. Top 10 stacks with 80 left in the Million don't come round very often. That's pretty gay, because calling is +EV.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

Hero (Button) could be stealing the blinds, or have a hand.
Could have anything as low as 8 10o or as good as AA,KK.

SB: Getting Desperate, knows the Button could be stealing probably has a pair 22+, A10+.

BB: Knows the button could be stealing and will fold most hands he could be holding, he is not bothered about the SB calling as he has only 350K and cant put him out.
However if the Button was not stealing then he could put the BB out so, this move is not a bluff. He has something, My guess Big Pair QQ+ maybe AK.
Any other hand is not profitable as he has to be able to beat the SB.

My opinion the Button can only call with AA, any other play is not profitable in this position. You have good EV to do well in the tourney, fold good EV, play and lose will be a disaster.

Fold and wait for a better spot...hard I know to pass KK, but this is the play you must do...Tough game I know...You can win the tourney with your current chips that you have.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

fold with your stack you can go deep
let this guy have the SB you loose 165k and get to know what villian is pushing with from BB thats the price you pay for the read on him
fold and continue playing and making some money [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

Just before I get a load of replies saying fold KK your mad, think of the BB range only QQ you are the total favourite. AKs is dodgy, AA your crushed.

Call with KK you would be gambling, its just not worth it.

An earlier comment about isolating with AJ+ somebody made, Trust me a good player would not make this play to win 350K by risking 1.6mill against the only player at the table who can knock him out.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

So a good player in BB does what with 99 or AJs? Hero happens to have AKo, but hero's button raising range has to be huge.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just before I get a load of replies saying fold KK your mad, think of the BB range only QQ you are the total favourite. AKs is dodgy, AA your crushed.

Call with KK you would be gambling, its just not worth it.

An earlier comment about isolating with AJ+ somebody made, Trust me a good player would not make this play to win 350K by risking 1.6mill against the only player at the table who can knock him out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually hes risking the 1.6 mil to win 560k. Button's range is pretty big here....sb and bb know that. BB knows sb knows that also...so u loosen sb's range a bit...which in turn loosens BB's isolating range. Maybe AJ and 88 are out of his range....but not AQ and 99.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

I agree this is an easy call if I have an avg stack or less however with my stack if i fold im still top 5 in chips.... I'm basically calling off my entire stack with A high

Its difficult bc I don't know much about BB.. his range could be very tight like QQ, KK and AA or it could be like 88-AA, AK-A10.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

[ QUOTE ]
Man, that's so tough. BB's range has to be AQs+, JJ+. Maybe TT. OK, if this were a $109, then I'm instacalling. I think in the Million with your stack, I'd probably fold. Top 10 stacks with 80 left in the Million don't come round very often. That's pretty gay, because calling is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea good point. Unless BB is a 100r regular or whatever we should tighten his range a bit more. AQ+ and TT+ probably.

...a lot closer than i thought.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

not an easy fold but pretty clear fold for me given stack size.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

So the consensus seems to be that this spot is +EV for me however due to stack size a fold is the best choice in this spot?

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

It's definitely +cEV. BB looks down at AQs or TT, what's he going to do in this spot?

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

1) BB's range has to include AQ here, and maybe AJ. Your raise from the button doesn't look strong, BB knows that.

2) You are getting 1.4 to 1 odds, and surely your equity is greater than 41%.

3) The average stack at the final table will be 7 million. Winning this pot will bring you to over 3.5MM. You've still got a long ways to go, mister...assuming your goal is to go really deep here, call.

I think factors 1-3 outweigh the bullying factor implied in you folding and keeping a healthy stack.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

[ QUOTE ]
So the consensus seems to be that this spot is +EV for me however due to stack size a fold is the best choice in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a huge hand in BSB play. This is a call.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

I don't play the Million, but this looks like a call:

1. you're getting 1.5-to-1.
2. vs a BB range of JJ+, AKs, AKo, you have about 40% equity. vs a range of 99+, AQ+, you have almost 50%
3. you made a standard steal-raise and there's no way BB gives you credit for being this strong; as others have said, this is a textbook iso-push spot.

the call is +EV. if you think you're one of the better players at your table and you can find better spots to keep accumulating chips, then you could arguing for folding, but I'd have to be very confident in myself to pass up this much equity this late in the tourney.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

I don't see how i fold this, this is above my limit in terms of buy-in, but I don't think this is necessarily a spot where $EV greatly differs from cEV, I mean, you're a substantial chip leader at this point if you win this pot, you could have him dominated, it's more likely than not that if he has a pair its less than KK+, this is definitely a tough spot, but I feel like a call is right.

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

lol at the fold KK guy. I turbo call this, you win and its final table time baby

Re: Tough spot, Sunday Million
 

Fold KK?? You're mad! Big blind's likeliest holdings are QQ/JJ/AK and KK is a big favourite over that range. AA is possible but why maximise the chance of a fold? I can pass hero's AK easily though.