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-   -   How do you proceed here? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=360729)

mongidig 03-21-2007 03:05 PM

How do you proceed here?
 
20-40 live 9 handed. I have tight image

Two loose players limp in EP, I raise with QdQs in cutoff, The SB(LAG) calls, BB(Somewhat tight but a little loose and very aggressive post flop) reraises(I suspect AJs or better,AKoffsuit, Big pocket pair). two EPs call, I cap and all call.

The flop: 9hThKs

It is checked to me and I bet(I am pretty sure I should have just checked here given the size of the pot and the very good chance that my hand was not good and I was being set up for a check raise), SB check-raises, BB reraises, it is folded to me. What should be my play?

I am pretty sure one or both of these players has me beat at the moment.

rafiki 03-21-2007 03:15 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
fold

jba 03-21-2007 03:17 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
call. pot is too big to fold just yet. worse case you're getting 29-3, best case 27-2. my advice would be to turn a jack.

rafiki 03-21-2007 03:18 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
only because a super quick scan is telling me you don't have 4 outs, you have 3 or less. And judging the action, it's maybe 2 for a split pot. Anyone else find an answer other then fold ?

Godson 03-21-2007 03:20 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
Call. Pot odds sucka. Worst case scenario obv. is that one of these nits has AhQh.

jba 03-21-2007 03:28 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
only because a super quick scan is telling me you don't have 4 outs, you have 3 or less. And judging the action, it's maybe 2 for a split pot. Anyone else find an answer other then fold ?

[/ QUOTE ]

imo you have > 4. it would not shock me if we could win with a queen.

rafiki 03-21-2007 03:34 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Call. Pot odds sucka. Worst case scenario obv. is that one of these nits has AhQh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I think worse case scenario is a made straight. I think if heads up you knew someone had AhQh, you wouldn't be THAT unhappy.

rafiki 03-21-2007 03:35 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
only because a super quick scan is telling me you don't have 4 outs, you have 3 or less. And judging the action, it's maybe 2 for a split pot. Anyone else find an answer other then fold ?

[/ QUOTE ]

imo you have > 4. it would not shock me if we could win with a queen.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's incorrect. I think you can't ever count the Q as an out here, and you'd be wrong counting the Jh as well. Using such optimistic out calculations is going to get you into trouble.

AlexSem 03-21-2007 03:39 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
fold.

anyone who says otherwise please come play at my table

rafiki 03-21-2007 03:39 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
fold.

anyone who says otherwise please come play at my table

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

jba 03-21-2007 03:47 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
only because a super quick scan is telling me you don't have 4 outs, you have 3 or less. And judging the action, it's maybe 2 for a split pot. Anyone else find an answer other then fold ?

[/ QUOTE ]

imo you have > 4. it would not shock me if we could win with a queen.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's incorrect. I think you can't ever count the Q as an out here, and you'd be wrong counting the Jh as well. Using such optimistic out calculations is going to get you into trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow how can the queens and the Jh both be dead here.

SB can have any K, two pair, whatever. BB can have AA, AK, TT, JJ.

rafiki 03-21-2007 03:56 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
only because a super quick scan is telling me you don't have 4 outs, you have 3 or less. And judging the action, it's maybe 2 for a split pot. Anyone else find an answer other then fold ?

[/ QUOTE ]

imo you have > 4. it would not shock me if we could win with a queen.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's incorrect. I think you can't ever count the Q as an out here, and you'd be wrong counting the Jh as well. Using such optimistic out calculations is going to get you into trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow how can the queens and the Jh both be dead here.

SB can have any K, two pair, whatever. BB can have AA, AK, TT, JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude there are TWO people in the hand. Hero bet, sb check raises, bb reraises, and action is on you.

1) you don't close the action

2) Hand ranges here for 2 villains includes WAY more then what you've listed. Their combined hands can easily have you drawing to a split pot, while still way behind.

This is such an easy fold. There's nothing to think about. You're going to probably be in a capped pot on every street going for what, a gutshot to a split pot ?

boooooooooo

jba 03-21-2007 03:57 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
"2) Hand ranges here for 2 villains includes WAY more then what you've listed. Their combined hands can easily have you drawing to a split pot, while still way behind. "

obviously. I was refuting this:

"I think you can't ever count the Q as an out here, and you'd be wrong counting the Jh as well."

rafiki 03-21-2007 04:03 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
"2) Hand ranges here for 2 villains includes WAY more then what you've listed. Their combined hands can easily have you drawing to a split pot, while still way behind. "

obviously. I was refuting this:

"I think you can't ever count the Q as an out here, and you'd be wrong counting the Jh as well."

[/ QUOTE ]

With a combined 2 players willing to check raise here, do you feel that you have 6 clean outs ? The answer is categorically no. Assuming your J is drawing you to a split pot, and assuming I humor you with no flush draw, and you have:

Q, Q, J, J J as your draw, you've got no business calling what essentially equates to a gutshot so that you can win a split pot in a situation where you'll never close the action.

Ok so you call, they cap. You miss.

Now what ? You're invested to calling 4 more big bets on the turn for a split pot ?

fold. it's not even close.

mongidig 03-21-2007 04:17 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
What makes you so sure this is going to be a split pot if the Jack hits? Remember, I hold two of the Queens and based upon how the preflop action as well as the post flop action has gone it seems actually unlikely that either of my opponents holds a Queen. My biggest fear hear would be that I am up against a set, hit the Jack on the turn and have the board pair on the river.

rafiki 03-21-2007 04:20 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
What makes you so sure this is going to be a split pot if the Jack hits? Remember, I hold two of the Queens and based upon how the preflop action as well as the post flop action has gone it seems actually unlikely that either of my opponents holds a Queen. My biggest fear hear would be that I am up against a set, hit the Jack on the turn and have the board pair on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

as stated, drawing to capped gutshots where you don't close the action is losing poker. carry on.

Sometimes it's ok to look at a nice hand like QQ and say "well that sucks". You don't always have to win.

jba 03-21-2007 04:27 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
oh yeah - you should definitely check behind on the flop.

rafiki 03-21-2007 04:31 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
oh yeah - you should definitely check behind on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I certainly haven't been arguing about if it's correct or not to take a free card !!! With the action presented here, raise, reraise, it's an easy fold. Yes a free card is exactly what I'd take here.

mongidig 03-21-2007 04:50 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
It is not certain that the SB will cap the flop. His check-raise indicates he probably was trying to protect a hand that is not necessarily a monster. Since the BB has shown much aggression preflop and on the flop it is not a slamdunk that SB will cap. Also, I don't necessarily put either of my opponents on flush draws once again based upon how the hand has materialized up to this point, therefore, if I were to call and then a heart came on the turn it is possible they may fear the flush is out there and check giving me a free turn.

Just playing Devils Advocate.

bdaddy 03-21-2007 06:36 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
IMO, this a very easy fold. High possibility of this being capped, and you're not closing the action. High enough probability of drawing to a chop and that some of your outs are not available. Also, you have no redraws even if you get there on the turn. Lastly, your "outs" on the turn give others redraws.

Oh, and def check the flop.

bdaddy 03-21-2007 06:50 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
The idea of these two LAG players, one of whom you described as very aggro postflop, checking the turn when the 6h hits, after the action so far is pretty silly.

mongidig 03-21-2007 07:06 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
If I cold call the check-reraise and these guys don't have a huge hand, isn't it possible they may back off on the turn even if the heart didn't hit wondering what I was calling with. These guys might be aggressive but they are also not dumb either. I see it all the time where the betting goes like this and then slows down on the turn. I am not exactly expecting them to check the turn but I don't think the possiblility of this happening is "silly".

bdaddy 03-21-2007 07:26 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
You capped preflop, the BB check/3bet you on that board and you don't think he has a huge hand? You really think he's doing that with KQ? And even if he is, there goes your odds to draw. His range looks like AA, AK, KK, 1010, 99 to me.

mongidig 03-21-2007 07:50 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
It depends on your definition of a huge hand. I don't think AA, or AK are huge hands with this betting(Assuming I cold call the 3bet) and this board.

If I had capped UTG I think these guys would take it a little more serious.

I should also elaborate a little more on the BB. When I said he plays aggressively postflop, I meant to mention that he was the same player from a previous post who sometimes overplays his hands. Sorry for leaving that out.

Frond 03-21-2007 10:44 PM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
Tricky hand here. PF is great. It is really easy for us to say you should have just checked the flop seeing the way it unfolded. I think I may have bet also. With all that post action I'm leaning more on folding than calling 3 bets here. Flush and str8 draws out make it tough to continue for 3 more bets.

AragornX151 03-22-2007 11:12 AM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
Super easy fold on flop. Like, as easy as it gets. On flop, I don't see what you're ahead of that put in 4 bets preflop anymore. I'd check behind on flop and fold to any turn bet.

benwood 03-22-2007 11:21 AM

Re: How do you proceed here?
 
Bet flop & call raises.


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