Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

Online 15. Game was 9-handed for a while, but one left and two are sitting out just a couple hands ago leaving us 6-handed for this hand. Opponent is your average tight player you find in midstakes games these days. Let's just pretend he's an average 2p2'er.

I get K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG and raise. One fold and CO 3bets. Folded back to me and I call.

Flop comes: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check, he bets, I raise. He calls.

Turn comes: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet, he raises. I call.

River comes: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check, he bets, I fold.

Thoughts on hand as is?

Thoughts if the turn was a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

Thoughts if the turn was a A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

I'm not quite sure what you mean by an "average tight player." To me, this is a player who is a little too loose, a little to passive, but basically okay. I don't think this sort of opponent will make this turn raise without a real hand. I would just fold. That said, if my opponent was a very aggressive TAG, I'd be more inclined to call down as he could make this raise with a flush draw, a hand like TT, or even air if he thinks you are weak.

Just my opinion...

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not quite sure what you mean by an "average tight player." To me, this is a player who is a little too loose, a little to passive, but basically okay. I don't think this sort of opponent will make this turn raise without a real hand. I would just fold. That said, if my opponent was a very aggressive TAG, I'd be more inclined to call down as he could make this raise with a flush draw, a hand like TT, or even air if he thinks you are weak.

Just my opinion...

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if he exclusively has strong hands (AK+) you have to call the turn raise on this board.

Rob

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

FWIW in 6-handed games when I raise and get 3bet by a player who may or may not be properly adjusting to my range for the situation, I tend to not checkraise this flop all the time. Assuming I had I play the rest of the hand the same when I'm playing well and have the read you have, and I pay off on the river when I'm playing marginally or worse. On a Queen I'm far more likely to pay off a turn raise and a river bet and on an Ace I'm more likely to take a wide range of lines on the turn including c/c c/f, b/f, b/calldown, and b/c+c/f.

Rob

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think this sort of opponent will make this turn raise without a real hand. I would just fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you notice we have a straight draw?

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

should this be a fold UTG in a 6 handed game?... i dont think i normally do, but does folding pflop have any merit?

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
should this be a fold UTG in a 6 handed game?... i dont think i normally do, but does folding pflop have any merit?

[/ QUOTE ]
no.
(Sorry there's not much more to say--if you played a bunch of 6-max you'd quickly realize why.)

This hand was pretty well summed up by entity's post.

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

WHy are you folding the river if you are calling the turn is what you should be asking yourself.

Edit: I see the straight draw, but shorthanded for 1 bet i dont fold on this river, if he is an 'average tight player', that means he can also be tricky, he doesnt always have to have the best hand on the turn if he is 'tight'. imo.

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think this sort of opponent will make this turn raise without a real hand. I would just fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you notice we have a straight draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. My knee-jerk was to fold turn then i realized we have the gutter.

I fold the river as well.

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

If my math is right, 8ish BB by the time the river comes. So I've asked this a lot, I'll ask it again. Knowing when we check and he bets, pot has 9bb. To get a profitable call, we have to win this a little over 1 time in 9, correct ?

With that in mind, is this fold really correct ?

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

You are correct about the numbers,rafiki.If you get a chance,pick up a copy of "The Theory of Poker",by Sklansky.

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

Ya I've got it actually. On the shelf with all the usuals. (gordon, caro, etc...)

I just haven't touched them in so long. I found the more I memorized, the less I really understood. So I tried doing more practicle examples so that some of the math would make sense to me. For whatever reason, despite doing years of science and math in university, I just always sucked at stats.

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

I think Rafiki is right. I think once in 9 times we will see A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 99. Without club draw on the flop i fold the river too.

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

lol the more I think about it, the more I wonder if we're even good 1 in 9. You gotta have some big balls to raise the turn after being check raised on the flop, and then showing air on the river when we call. Any good players on here do that ? Do you ever do it hoping for the ideal river card to complete your bluff, knowing that a pair of kings couldn't call a river: A, 6, 7, 8, club ? lol I might try that. I'll probably get owned [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

If you call a long-shot without quite proper odds,your average loss is small.If you call a 9 to 1 shot with a hand that will really only win once every 13 hands,let's say,it's no big deal.

(Any of you math guys like to put some numbers on this?)

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

whooops. Online I call. I don't know why I thought this was live.

TBH though betting [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s here is terrible.

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you call a long-shot without quite proper odds,your average loss is small.If you call a 9 to 1 shot with a hand that will really only win once every 13 hands,let's say,it's no big deal.

(Any of you math guys like to put some numbers on this?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually good point made in there. If the goal of the turn call was to only continue if you made a straight, then at 5 to 1 on the turn you're for sure priced out of the whole thing.

I'm curious about the point you're trying to make with the 9 to 1 vs 13 to 1. Do you mean at what point is the mistake so small that it's not really significant ? I could be wrong, but I imagine that has a lot to do with sample size. Certainly as your total number of hands tends to infiniti, any call where the pot is laying incorrect odds of any amount is going to have a very big impact on your profits. But in a given night, your sample size may be so small that you'd never see the impact. Or maybe I'm not really following what you mean.

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

The point on the turn isn't only to continue if you make a straight. Since his range will be something like AK/AA, FSDR, and then 88/KK, you've got more than enough outs + the chance that your hand is good and villain won't usually fire 3 barrels here on this board.

Rob

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
The point on the turn isn't only to continue if you make a straight. Since his range will be something like AK/AA, FSDR, and then 88/KK, you've got more than enough outs + the chance that your hand is good and villain won't usually fire 3 barrels here on this board.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I took the time to show that we don't have more then enough outs. The basis to continue should really be about feeling we are ahead. If we're playing abc poker according to pot odds.

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
you've got more than enough outs + the chance that your hand is good and villain won't usually fire 3 barrels here on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, before i noticed that we had picked up the gutter i assumed we were calling the turn raise based on the board and the frequency that we see a FSDR from a worse hand.

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

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[I took the time to show that we don't have more then enough outs. The basis to continue should really be about feeling we are ahead. If we're playing abc poker according to pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting 8-1 on the turn call. You have about 7 outs(6-1).

Easy turn call to improve.

b

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
Actually good point made in there. If the goal of the turn call was to only continue if you made a straight, then at 5 to 1 on the turn you're for sure priced out of the whole thing.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's 8-1 on the turn.

b

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The point on the turn isn't only to continue if you make a straight. Since his range will be something like AK/AA, FSDR, and then 88/KK, you've got more than enough outs + the chance that your hand is good and villain won't usually fire 3 barrels here on this board.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I took the time to show that we don't have more then enough outs. The basis to continue should really be about feeling we are ahead. If we're playing abc poker according to pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

You took the time, but you were way off.

Weighted outs distribution, assuming we're always behind:

KK - 1 - 4 outs = 4
AK - 8 - 7 outs = 56
AA - 6 - 9 outs = 54
88 - 3 - 4 outs = 12

Total: 126 outs 18 ways = 7 outs average. We need 5.57:1 to continue and we're getting 8.25:1. Your math was either off or you misread the board, I think --

FWIW...that's giving him a tight range preflop and postflop. The reverse implied odds of him having AK and us putting in 1 extra bet since we now beat AA are mitigated by the times that he free showdowns a worse hand so I'm effectively ignoring reverse implied odds and implied odds in this.

Rob

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Actually good point made in there. If the goal of the turn call was to only continue if you made a straight, then at 5 to 1 on the turn you're for sure priced out of the whole thing.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's 8-1 on the turn.

b

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Ya the 5 to 1 is a typo, we noticed the 9 to 1 above. if we've got 6 outs, the draw is razor thin. As played, thin call, check fold unimproved.

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Actually good point made in there. If the goal of the turn call was to only continue if you made a straight, then at 5 to 1 on the turn you're for sure priced out of the whole thing.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's 8-1 on the turn.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya the 5 to 1 is a typo, we noticed the 9 to 1 above. if we've got 6 outs, the draw is razor thin. As played, thin call, check fold unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's really not that thin of a call. It's an easy call given the pot odds, knowing we have to improve to win.

b

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

GOT,

I think your line looks reasonable given your read. Not saying that calling the river is right or wrong, but CO is unlikely to have KQo and might not even 3bet KQs preflop, so that limits how many legit 3betting hands he could have. He is basically representing AA/KK/AK, with hands like KQs/88/77/66 possible but discounted heavily.

So basically he doesn't have to have a whole lot of bluffs, overplayed pairs between 9s and Qs to make the river call correct. That said, I don't really disagree with your line, but if I make this fold, I do have concern in the back of my head that villain doesn't have to get out of line that much to make a call better than a fold. (Even so, a fold is at worst a pretty small mistake given this opponent.)

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

I only play six max online so it is pretty much a natural that I would find myself in this position more than a few times a session.

I think you need to check the turn when you pick up the gutterball draw. I play a little higher than 15 so I would be very leary of a semibluff here with something like a pair and str8 draw or pair and flush draw. the Turn semibluff is just so fashionable right now in the mid-limits. I would check because I know for a fact that the street will get bet anyway, I would like to make two bets from an underpair, and I don't want to face a hard decison with this strong of a hand shorthanded.

Back to HPFAP, check hands that may be beaten but have outs on the turn, bet hands with no outs if behind. Contol pot size the best you can out of position.

FJM

Re: Mr. Inconsistent : KTs UTG
 

nh. you are not winning on the river.